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Post by ChrisBrown on Jul 22, 2015 10:46:27 GMT -5
Ausmus is pretty clueless, but I still can't blame him too much. Once Price gets traded, this will be the worst overall pitching staff the Tigers have fielded since 2003. Tough for anybody to win with that.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jul 21, 2015 15:05:15 GMT -5
Hey you guys that have young kids - did you get your wife a push present? If so, what is this supposed to be? Just jewelry? Congrats man! We didn't do push presents, or gender reveals, or sip and see parties, or any of that shit, so I can't help you there. Seems like a lot of people go with charms or necklaces and stuff like that, but I'd just go with something she's into. My son is about to turn 1.5, and it's been pretty great. First six months were kind of a bummer because we didn't sleep much, but that was totally on us for not trying to get him in a crib sooner. My one piece of advice is to not buy anything new. Parents accumulate so much shit, so fast, and the kids grow out of it just as quickly. There are tons of "Mom-to-Mom" groups all over, and you can get stuff for like 20% of retail value, and sometimes even free, just because people want it the fuck out of their house.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jul 20, 2015 15:24:51 GMT -5
In my head I've been comparing this season to 2008. They aren't entirely similar, because that year they got off to a terrible start and only got to .500 around the All-star break, while this season they've been heading in the opposite direction. Both teams had a top-5 offense and a bottom-5 pitching staff though, although this year's team is significantly better defensively than that 2008 team.
In any event, the Tigers were able to contend again in 2009 (and would have made the playoffs under the current rules), so I'm curious to see if there's a chance to rebound in 2016.
First, let's take a look at the six biggest contacts for each team:
2016
Verlander - $28 million ($112 million through 2019) Cabrera - $28 million ($250 million through 2023) V-Mart - $18 million ($54 million through 2018) Sanchez - $16.8 million ($38.6-50.4 million through 2018, depending on if they pick up option) Kinsler - $14 million ($30-35 million through 2018, depending on if they pick up his option) Fielder - $6 million ($30 million through 2020)
Total - $110.8 million (about 60-70% of next year's projected payroll)
2009
Ordonez - $19.2 million (ended up paying him about $47 million through 2011, though they re-signed him for $10 in 2011) Cabrera - $15 million ($141 million through 2015) Bonderman - $12.5 million ($25 million through 2010) Guillen - $10 million ($36 million through 2011) Willis - $10 million ($22 million through 2010) Robertson - $7 million ($17 million through 2010)
Total - $73.7 million (was 64% of their payroll)
The six players from back then combined to produce 6.4 WAR in 2008, and 5.3 WAR in 2009 (5.0 came from Miggy in 2009). The six players this year have combined to produce 5.8 WAR so far (not counting Prince Fielder, or course).
So the 2009 Tigers essentially had 5 worthless players taking up about half of their payroll, and they still managed to nearly make the postseason. There were a couple of huge factors in that turnaround that we can't count on. The biggest was Verlander having the first of his four consecutive spectacular years, but Miggy's production also took a step forward. They also managed to replace 400 innings of Kenny Rogers, Robertson, and Bonderman with about 400 innings from Edwin Jackson and Rick Porcello.
I'm guessing the Tigers will get better production from 2016's expensive quintet than they did from the 2009 version, but they will absolutely need to find an ace in the offseason. They don't have a rookie like Porcello ready to join the rotation, but it's not too crazy to think they might be able to make a trade for one, at the deadline or in the offseason, and it's also possible they could trade for a slightly older pitcher like Edwin Jackson.
I guess the point of all this is that the window isn't necessarily closed. They have a handful of solid young players, and their big contracts aren't so prohibitive that they won't be able to compete next year. However, they kind of have to have a perfect offseason to fill in their holes. Starting right now would help.
I think it would behoove them to trade all of their impending free agents. See if McCann/Holaday can be a decent enough platoon at catcher, and see if Gose can handle full-time center field duties. Move Cespedes and see if Tyler Collins can be anything more than a bench bat. Move Soria and let Rondon and Feliz alternate closer duties to see if either can handle it. See if anyone wants Alfredo Simon as a bullpen piece. And trade Price if the deal is good. They literally have no one to fill his slot in the rotation, but if they're selling then I guess we can watch Ryan and Farmer go out there and give up 10 runs every 5th day.
If next year's draft were held today, the Tigers would pick 15th. If they sell everything, they'd have a real good shot of picking in the top 10 next year, which means they wouldn't lose their first rounder if they sign a big-time free agent, and they could possibly get a fast-moving college arm who can help in the bullpen next year and move into the rotation in the next few seasons.
I can't think of any reason not to sell and tank right now.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jul 20, 2015 8:05:01 GMT -5
Went to that one yesterday...my first Tigers game of the year. I've never been in a real fight in my life, but the combination of 90 degrees in the direct sun and terrible fucking baseball very nearly led to me punching an usher who was just doing his job.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jul 16, 2015 13:22:42 GMT -5
I didn't realize Trout was 235 lbs. That guy is a monster. It's funny...as a prep and in his first year as a prospect, scouts questioned if he would ever hit for much power. Now he's one of the strongest guys in the majors, and still one of the fastest. He has a legit chance to be a top-10 player of all time. Maybe even top 5. His two battles with Miggy for ultimately meaningless awards have led a lot of Tigers fans to dislike Trout, which I think is unfortunate.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jul 14, 2015 23:26:49 GMT -5
The pitcher Boston got for 3 months of reliever Andrew Miller would be the 2nd best starter on the Tigers this year. He's also a 22 year old lefthander. Tigers gave up Jacob Turner and a catcher prospect for 3 months of Anibal Sanchez. Thats off the top of my head but im sure there are other examples. Yea, but Price is a little different story at potentially having to sign him at $200M+. I don't know who Boston got. Is Jacob Turner in MLB baseball right now? I don't think the catcher (Brantley?) is either. Of course sometimes it works out, but I'm not convinced it will have a major impact on the Tigers really. Might, but DD isn't exactly known for picking up young talent correctly. I've read several times that the Tigers were about to get Miller last year until the Orioles offered Eduardo Rodriguez. Jacob Turner is on the Cubs, but he began the year on the DL with shoulder trouble, made two rehab starts in the minors, and then got shelved again with elbow trouble. Some other deadline pitcher examples...back in 2008 the Brewers traded three prospects and a player to be named later for 3 months of CC Sabathia. The PTBNL ended up being Michael Brantley. The Angels traded three decent prospects to the Brewers for 3 months of Zack Greinke. The Giants traded Zack Wheeler for 3 months of Carlos Beltran back in 2011. And I think Dombrowski has a pretty solid record of trading for young talent. The Fister trade sucked, and the Greene trade doesn't look so hot right now, but it's tough to argue about the trades for Scherzer, Austin Jackson, and Iglesias.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jul 14, 2015 11:25:41 GMT -5
I just don't think selling will come close to providing any sort of rebuild. Maybe CHRIS has an opinion. I did an article ranking the Tigers top trade chips, and what we might be able to expect in return for them. Part 1, Part 2 But no, the Tigers won't get the same sort of value from Price that they gave up to get him, but it's really a sellers market this year, so they might be able to get something pretty nice. And they could always package Price and Cespedes, or Price and Soria in a single deal to get something extra. No one in the AL is more than 8 games back of a wild card spot, and the AL East and West are still pretty much up for grabs. And then there are probably 8 teams in the NL who are still in it, so you've got close to 20 teams who could be buyers. If they want to go the complete rebuild route, then they can probably get a lot of potential value in return by trading exclusively for guys in A-ball or lower, but then you're looking at 3-4 years before you can even consider contending again, and at that point you're fielding versions of Verlander and Cabrera that are probably very sad to watch. They can accelerate that rebuild by moving J.D. and Iglesias, but those guys seem like the cornerstone of the team for the next few seasons. I think they can move the guys they have for a solid young starter and a solid young outfielder. And looking at next year's roster: Big ContractsVerlander, Cabrera, Sanchez, Kinsler, V-Mart, and Prince Fielder = $111 million Arbitration Eligible
J.D. Martinez ($9?), Neftali Feliz ($6?), Iglesias ($3?), Alburquerque ($2?), Romine ($1?) = $21 million League Minimum
Castellanos, Gose, Greene, Krol, Hardy, Rondon, McCann, Nesbitt, Lobstein, Holaday, Moya, Collins = $7 million Obviously the bottom lists aren't set in stone. The arbitration figures are guesses, and they may move on from AlAl and Romine, or any of the guys making the minimum. But, just working from that list, they're at about $140 million, with at least one starting pitcher, one outfielder, and one bullpen arm to go after in free agency. Their payroll was $149 in 2013, $164 last year, and $173 this year. Depending on what the budget is, they could have anywhere from $10-45 million to spend in free agency. If it's on the low end, they're basically screwed. But if it's on the high end, judging from the list of free agents at Cot's contracts, there are gonna be some pretty damn good options available: Outfielders
Yoenis Cespedes Rajai Davis Dexter Fowler *Alex Gordon ($12.5 million player option) Jason Heyward Austin Jackson David Murphy *Alex Rios ($12.5 mutual option)
Denard Span Justin Upton Will Venable Chris Young Starters
Mark Buehrle A.J. Burnett (if he doesn't retire) Wei-Yin Chin Bartolo Colon Johnny Cueto Doug Fister Yovani Gallardo Jaime Garcia Zack Greinke (opt-out) Dan Haren Hisashi Iwakuma Scott Kazmir Ian Kennedy John Lackey Mat Latos Mike Leake Kyle Lohse David Price Jeff Samardzija Jordan Zimmermann The offense this year has been pretty good overall, and most of the hitters will be back next year, though they could probably use another lefty bat. I'd absolutely love it if they went after Heyward, but he's probably gonna get 6 years and $120 million from someone. Their best bet may be to go after two career platoon guys like Young and Murphy or Venable. Young has a career .834 OPS against lefties and can theoretically still play CF, while Murphy (.806) and Venable (.751) have solid career numbers against righties. They could also just bring Rajai back, and it wouldn't shock me in the slightest if they sign Cespedes to a four-year, $75 million deal or something. In my retooling scenario they'd be trading for a player to fit here. In any event, it's the pitching that needs the most help. They really are left hoping that Sanchez and Verlander can be better next year, and I suspect they'll spend a lot of energy in the offseason trying to get Shane Greene back on track to being a solid #4 or 5 starter. Again, in my retooling scenario they'd be trading for a starter, but they would still need an ace. If they don't trade for a starter, then they're potentially looking at signing two lesser starters in free agency, or using Lobstein every 5th day. Of the pitchers available, you can cut out Cueto and Greinke, because they'll be making like $25-30 million a year. Price will make the same, and I think the Tigers will make an attempt to sign him, but I don't see it happening. Zimmermann and Samardzija figure to get upwards of $20 million a year, and I see them as legitimate options. Zimmermann has been incredibly consistent in his career, and he's more than a year younger than Samardzija, but Samardzija has the better pure stuff, doesn't have TJ surgery in his past, and has thrown 1,000 fewer pitches in the Majors. The other option is to sign a couple of arms like Lackey and Kennedy, or Latos and Gallardo, but that might actually cost more and provide less than than going after a #1. So, my ideal scenario would be to trade all the free agents for a starter and outfielder who can help next year, sign Samardzija (probably cost at least 5 years and $120 million+), and then spend whatever else they have on relievers.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jul 13, 2015 12:57:52 GMT -5
Blow it up. I'd much rather watch a team like the Twins. Can't believe I'm saying that after the first series of the season. Man...I don't know. Sure, the Twins are fun this year, but they were one of the worst teams in baseball from 2011-2014. Not sure I can stomach four years of garbage baseball and being out of the playoff hunt by May. I mean, I love prospects, so I'd be all for that aspect of a complete rebuild...but I don't have a whole lot of faith in the current front office to actually acquire elite talents like Sano, Buxton, and Berrios.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jul 13, 2015 11:31:28 GMT -5
I'm no fan of Ausmus, but I'm not sure what he's supposed to do when his starters have the 2nd worst ERA in the AL, and his relievers have the 3rd worst. Maybe some of that is caused by leaving starters in too long, or bullpen mismanagement...but he's not doing so much harm that the team's fortunes would turn around if he were replaced.
The failings of this year's team fall solely on Dombrowski, in my opinion. The two starters he targeted in the offseason have been awful (Simon was always going to be a bad deal), and the two free agent relievers they signed have both been cut already. He couldn't have predicted Verlander's injury or Sanchez's regression, but he clearly didn't do enough to fix the pitching staff.
This team has $105 million already locked into five players for the next 2-3 years. That alone is more than the total payroll of 11 teams this year, and that's before factoring in raises for guys like JD and Iglesias. They will need at least two starters for next season, an outfielder, possibly a backup catcher, and several bullpen arms, including a closer.
Given the extended financial investment in the core group of aging players, it doesn't make sense to sell off the expiring contracts to attempt to rebuild the farm. They either need to do a complete rebuild, which would include moving Sanchez and Kinsler (which I really wanted them to do before the season) and even Cabrera if they can, or they need to trade off Price, Cespedes, Davis, Avila, and Soria for players who might not have high ceilings, but have already seen some time in the bigs, or are on the cusp of being MLB contributors. That means trading for more guys like Gose, Greene, and Robbie Ray in the hopes that they improve. And then they can target a big pitcher in the offseason, because they'll definitely need a new #1 starter, and they aren't getting that in a trade.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jul 9, 2015 13:55:06 GMT -5
Seems like most Tigers pitchers get progressively worse the longer they are with the Tigers. Solid coaching. Nah, it just feels like that this year. Porcello and Scherzer definitely got better each year here. Fister was much better here than he was in Seattle, and until this year Sanchez had been better than he was in Miami.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jul 9, 2015 13:47:12 GMT -5
Should be a fun team to watch this year. Looking forward to the season. Yeah, I am too. I have no idea if they'll end up being any good, but for the first time in years you can actually see what they're trying to do. Jackson was so much better without Monroe in the lineup, and now he doesn't have to worry about that anymore. I like Dinwiddie as a pass-first backup, and Jennings should be back at some point. Jackson developed really nice chemistry with Drummond, who is still the 2nd youngest guy on the team and should continue to get better. Anthony is solid depth and rim protection, and Aron Baynes should be a decent backup who can also bring a bit of a different dimension to the offense because he can hit shots out to 16 feet. So they should have the strong pick-and-roll offense going again, and they've now surrounded the PGs and Bigs with wings who are capable shooters. None of them are elite, but Morris (.354), Ilyasova (.389), Tolliver (.366), Meeks (.349), and Caldwell-Pope (.345) are all threats from deep. I'm not sure if Darrun Hilliard will get much PT, but it looks like he can definitely stroke it, and even Johnson can shoot a bit. He'll provide more value elsewhere, but it wouldn't shock me at all if we occasionally see him as the 4 in a small lineup.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jul 8, 2015 15:06:27 GMT -5
So, this comes with the huge caveat that I'm basing my conclusions on an extremely small sample size of games involving fringe NBA talents, but I think I have a pretty good understanding of why the Pistons took Johnson instead of Winslow.
First, I think Winslow has a chance to be an elite scorer in the NBA. He seems to be able to get to the rim at will, and I think he'll eventually develop into an above-average shooter at the pro level. I also think he may end up being a solid distributor, and I understand why he gets some James Harden comparisons. It's unlikely that he ends up that good, but I can see him being a 20-4-4 guy, which is obviously still pretty damn good.
At the same time, I can absolutely see the Artest comparisons for Stanley Johnson. For one thing, Johnson is built like a brick shithouse. He's strong as hell for such a young kid, and he seems to really pride himself on being an annoying, almost dickish defender. I can see him drawing technical fouls on a lot of opposing players. He's okay with the ball in his hands, and he can shoot a bit from distance, but I don't think he's ever gonna be a bigtime playmaker, or a consistent threat to drop 30 on you. However, he's gonna bang for rebounds and get putbacks, dive for loose balls, and stay in the shorts of the guy he's defending. I can see him developing into an 18 and 6 guy with a couple of steals, and that should make him a contender for first-team defensive honors in his prime.
Obviously it's possible that neither guy will live up to his potential, but both could be really good in different ways. I think Johnson is the better fit for the Pistons right now, because they've cast their lot with Reggie Jackson dominating the ball, and I think Johnson has a better chance to really affect the game without having the ball in his hands.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jun 29, 2015 11:26:03 GMT -5
I was all in on Hezonja for the last 6 weeks or so, so once he went off the board I didn't really care who they took. Thought they would have gone for a big man in the 2nd round, but whatever.
Let's look at the scouting videos for Johnson:
and
and how about some highlights from Arizona
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jun 25, 2015 7:40:36 GMT -5
Still can't believe Ausmus let Verlander throw like 120 pitches in his second start back. Not surprised he ended up having back trouble.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jun 23, 2015 12:54:37 GMT -5
Anyone else hear the rumor that has the Pistons moving Monroe (sign-and-trade), Jennings, and #8 to the Knicks for Tim Hardaway Jr. and the #4 pick? Would you do it? I would absolutely do that, depending on who they're looking at with that pick. Getting any value out of Monroe at this point would be great, and while Jennings ended up having a really solid season, he's expendable now. Hardaway isn't anything special, but he'd give them yet another outside shooting option who can occasionally get hot from distance. That said, this is a relatively complicated deal, and those sorts of trades don't seem to get leaked in full detail like this.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jun 18, 2015 12:41:28 GMT -5
Would the Reds be willing to trade Frazier? I'd love to put him at third base. Give them our entire farm system for cueto and frazier. Pretty unlikely. He's still under team control for two more years. It's possible, I suppose, if they want to blow the whole thing up, but the Tigers don't have what it would take to get him.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jun 14, 2015 9:37:11 GMT -5
SO that was about what I expected from Verlander. Results were a little better than expected, actually, but he did get bailed out by the D several times. He looked like a 4-ERA, 6 K/9 kind of pitcher, which is unfortunate, but getting anything from him is nice at this point. The bullpen is still a disaster though.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jun 11, 2015 14:15:47 GMT -5
Interesting. I think Ilyasova can actually play a bit. Gives them another option as a stretch 4.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jun 11, 2015 9:46:18 GMT -5
Keith Law's take on the Tigers first 8 picks
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jun 11, 2015 9:04:21 GMT -5
So Kirk Gibson's son, Castellanos' brother and Bill Freehan's grandson got drafted by the Tigers. #nepotism The last two, yes. Gibby's son is a legitimate prospect who would have been taken in that general range, or maybe a round later. Similar to the Avila pick in the 5th round back in 2008.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jun 11, 2015 8:02:35 GMT -5
Such an odd season for Greene so far. A lot of people, myself included, were pretty optimistic about him coming into the season. And then he had those fantastic three starts to being the year, and everything looked good. Since then he's been straight ass. I have to assume he'll be sent down to Toledo this weekend. I think he's got really solid potential, but I'm starting to wonder about his mental toughness. A few starts in Toledo wouldn't hurt him...remember when the Tigers sent Scherzer down? Seems crazy to think about that now.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jun 10, 2015 7:56:15 GMT -5
A couple nice wins in a row. If Greene takes a dump on the mound again tonight, I think they'll send him down to Toledo when they activate Verlander and work Ryan back into the rotation.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jun 9, 2015 13:07:01 GMT -5
Thanks for the information CB. They all appear to have high bust potential. Baseball scouting is damn near impossible. Yep. I'll never understand how scouts can look at an 18-year-old and project how well he'll be able to hit major league breaking balls in 5 years. Burrows and Alexander at least appear to have the ability to be relievers if injuries or ineffectiveness hamper their ability to start. If Stewart doesn't hit a ton, he's not gonna be useful at all. Their 3rd rounder is in: Drew Smith, RHP, Dallas Baptist
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jun 9, 2015 11:14:11 GMT -5
Some video, and more scouting reports
Baseball America on Burrows
And on Stewart
Burrows
Stewart
Alexander
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jun 9, 2015 10:06:24 GMT -5
Chris, With Beau Burrows (and any other High School pitchers), is the thought that they will increase pitch speed as they get into their 20s, or do we already know what their max pitch speed is by 18 years old? The scouting report on Burrows says that he's throwing in the mid 90s. Is that potentially maxed out for him? That's a great question, and it touches on the art of scouting projection. In general, yes, high school pitchers are expected to throw harder as they fill out and grow into their man bodies. A good example would be the kid the Indians took with pick 42, Triston McKenzie. His fastball is 89-91 right now, but he's 6'5 and maybe 165 pounds. Scouts look at his body, and his arm action, and project him to be pitching in the mid-90s or better if and when he puts on weight. It doesn't always happen though. The Rays took Kyle Lobstein out of high school in the 2nd round back in 2008, in part because he had touched the low-90s already and seemed projectable at 6'3, 200. He never added the velo though, and we see now that he sits in the 86-89 range. Now, with Burrows in particular, scouts don't see much projection left, if any. He's about 6'1, 200 right now, and unless he hits an unexpected growth spurt, that's probably the size he'll stay. The good news is that they don't need to project his fastball - it sits in the mid-90s now, and touches as high as 99. I would expect that to back up a bit once he gets into pro ball and starts pitching every 5th day. That's also not a guarantee, but I'd say it's reasonable to see him sitting 90-94 and spiking up to 96-97 in the future, but that's plenty good enough.
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