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Post by ChrisBrown on Jun 8, 2015 14:34:23 GMT -5
I know there isn't a huge audience for this here, but with no Tigers game on tonight I figured people may want to tune into the MLB Draft. MLB Network is broadcasting the first 70 picks tonight, and the Tigers select at 22, 34, and 65. The general consensus is that this is a really bad draft in terms of both talent and depth. Some have said it's the worst talent pool since 2000, and I've read that, if they were eligible, no fewer than six 2016 draft picks would go tonight before the first 2015 draft pick. Still, there's always talent hiding in every draft, and here's who to know: Shortstops - It may not be a terribly good draft, but this is the deepest crop of shortstops I can remember. Name
| School
| Range
| Notes
| Dansby Swanson
| Vanderbilt
| 1-3
| Great combination of hitting ability, speed, defense, and track record.
| Alex Bregman
| LSU
| 2-8
| Similar to Swanson, though some think he moves to 2B.
| Brendan Rogers
| Florida HS
| 1-4
| Generally considered the top overall talent in the draft.
| Kevin Newman
| Arizona
| 20-40
| First two-time Cape Cod League batting champ ever. Zero power though.
| Richie Martin
| Florida
| 25-45
| Decent hitter with plus speed and defensive potential.
| Jalen Miller
| Georgia HS
| 30-55
| Very solid all around player, but may ultimately end up at 2B.
| Blake Trahan
| LA Lafayette
| 40-60
| Iffy bat but the tools to stay at shortstop.
| Kyle Holder
| San Diego
| 40-70
| Also an iffy hitter, but very athletic, and probably the best defender of the bunch.
| Alonzo Jones
| Georgia
| 45-70
| Absolute burner with some hitting ability. Likely moves to CF.
| Mikey White
| Alabama
| 50-80
| Grinder with good hit tool. Probably a utility guy.
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College Arms - There isn't a no-shit stud in this entire crop, and yet college pitchers seem to be moving up on every team's board Name | School | Hand | Range | Notes | Carson Fulmer
| Vanderbilt
| R
| 1-8
| Elite stuff and track record, but only 5'11 and scouts think he's a reliever.
| Dillon Tate
| UCSB
| R
| 1-10
| Might have best stuff of all. Big fastball, wipeout slider. First year as a starter.
| Tyler Jay
| Illinois
| L
| 1-10
| Power fastball & plus offspeed. College reliever, but scouts think he can start.
| Jon Harris
| Missouri St.
| R
| 8-22
| Solid 4-pitch guy who figures to be a #3-4 starter.
| Walker Buehler
| Vanderbilt
| R
| 10-22
| Good fastball with solid, inconsistent secondaries. Slight frame.
| Jame Kaprielian
| UCLA
| R
| 16-30
| Mid-rotation guy like Harris, but with lesser heat and better command.
| Kyle Funkhouser
| Louisville
| R
| 15-30
| Top-5 starter coming into the season, but lost some velo and struggled
| Phil Bickford
| Nevada CC
| R
| 18-30
| Enigmatic sinkerballer doesn't turn 20 until July. Just tested + for pot.
| Brady Aiken
| IMG CC
| L
| 7-50
| Went #1 overall last year. Had TJ this year, tons of speculation about health.
| Nathan Kirby
| Virginia
| L
| 20-35
| Also injured this year, but has a solid mix of pitches and control when healthy.
| Cody Ponce
| Cal Pol Pomona
| R
| 18-40
| Big kid with a big arm from a D2 schools. Mild arm trouble this year.
| Mike Matuella
| Duke
| R
| 20-60
| Huge question mark. Talent to go 1 overall, but TJ surgery, and back issues.
| Thomas Eshelman
| Fullerton
| R
| 25-60
| Fringy stuff across the board, but remarkable command and control.
| Alex Young
| TCU
| L
| 30-60
| Slightly above-average stuff and solid pitchability.
| Jacob Nix
| IMG CC
| R
| 30-60
| Caught up in Astros' Aiken Fiasco. Solid fastball, just 19.
| David Hill
| San Diego
| R
| 30-70
| Nothing special, but should eat innings in pro ball.
| Riley Ferrell
| TCU
| R
| 30-70
| Top pure reliever available, mid-90s heat and plus slider.
| Andrew Suarez
| Miami (FL)
| L
| 50-80
| Good fastball and solid secondaries. Some injury concerns.
| Josh Staumont
| Azusa Pacific
| R
| 60-100
| Huge fastball, very little idea where it's going. Reliever.
| Ryan Burr
| Arizona State
| R
| 60-100
| Very similar to Staumont.
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Prep Bats - Mostly outfielders this year, with not many corner infielders, and very few catchers. Name | From | Pos.
| Range | Notes
| Daz Cameron
| Georgia
| OF
| 2-15
| Son of Mike. Solid tools across the board. May make deal and go much later.
| Kyle Tucker
| Florida
| OF
| 2-12
| Gorgeous swing, with big power potential. Older brother on the Astros.
| Tyler Stephenson
| Georgia
| C
| 1-12
| Tiny chance he goes first overall. Pop-up guy with big bat/defense combo.
| Trenton Clark
| Texas
| OF
| 10-20
| Consistently mocked to Miami at #12. Four average or better tools, with arm lagging.
| Garrett Whitley
| New York
| OF
| 10-20
| Big-time athlete with 5-tool potential. Lazy comparisons to Mike Trout.
| Cornelius Randolph
| Georgia
| 3B
| 10-25
| Possibly best hit tool among prep bats. Might have to move to OF eventually.
| Chris Betts
| California
| C
| 15-30
| Could have plus hit and power with fringy defense behind the dish.
| Nick Plummer
| Michigan
| OF
| 18-40
| Considered a top-10 talent with big hitting potential, but a risky profile.
| Demi Orimoloye
| Canada
| OF
| 25-70
| Prototypical RF with the chance for some monster tools, but still raw in all phases.
| Mitch Hansen
| Texas
| OF
| 30-60
| Has potential for five above-average tools down the road.
| Eric Jenkins
| North Carolina
| OF
| 30-70
| Speedy CF with the chance to be an average hitter.
| Ke'Bryan Hayes
| Texas
| 3B
| 35-70
| Good hit with solid pop who should stay at third. Son of Charlie.
| Lucas Herbert
| California
| C
| 40-70
| Top defensive catcher in the prep class, with fringy offensive profile.
| Luken Baker
| Texas
| 1B/P
| 40-70
| Plus power and arm. Scouts like him more as a pitcher. May go to college.
| Josh Naylor
| Canada
| 1B
| 40-70
| Big-time power bat with a good chance to hit. Probably a DH in the end.
| Jahmai Jones
| Georgia
| 2B/OF
| 50-70+
| Plus speed and a chance to hit for solid average and decent pop.
| Kolton Kendrick
| Louisiana
| 1B
| 50-70+
| Monster power potential, not much else to speak of.
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College Bats - Weak crop this year, which is a big reason it's considered a bad draft. They do seem to be moving up boards though. Name | School | Pos. | Range | Notes | Andrew Benintendi
| Arkansas
| OF
| 2-12
| Small, but leads college in HRs this year and could be a plus hitter with + speed.
| Ian Happ
| Cincinnati
| OF
| 10-20
| Might have the best hit tool among college players. Fits best in a corner.
| Donnie Dewees
| North Florida
| OF
| 20-40
| Kind of the small-school version of Benintendi. CF or LF only.
| Scott Kingery
| Arizona
| 2B
| 20-45
| Top of the order type. Plus hitter with patience and plus speed.
| D.J. Stewart
| Florida St.
| OF
| 20-50
| Bat first guy with tons of patience. Iffy body and weak arm mean LF or 1B.
| Chris Shaw
| Boston College
| 1B
| 30-60
| Probably has the most pop among the college bats.
| Christin Stewart
| Tennessee
| LF
| 35-70
| No idea how you pronounce his name. Chance to hit for solid power and average.
| Joe McCarthy
| Virginia
| LF
| 35-70
| Better all-around than Stewart, but missed most of the year with a bad back.
| Austin Rei
| Washington
| C
| 50-80
| Subpar bat, but a good athlete with plus defense. College catching very scarce.
| Taylor Ward
| Fresno St.
| C
| 50-80
| Very similar to Rei, but with less polish and a bigger arm.
| Harrison Bader
| Florida
| OF
| 60-80
| Solid but unspectacular. Could play all three OF spots.
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Prep Arms - The other reason this is considered a weak draft. Actually plenty of intriguing arms, but all with big question marks. Name | From
| Hand
| Range
| Notes | Kolby Allard
| California
| L
| 10-20
| Tough to peg down any of the HS arms. Has a back injury, but two + pitches and + control.
| Ashe Russell
| Indiana
| R
| 14-35
| Also two plus pitches. More projection than Allard, but less control and iffy delivery.
| Mike Nikorak
| Pennsylvania
| R
| 14-35
| Has hit 97, but velo up and down all spring. Curve also flashes plus. Ideal pitcher's body.
| Donny Everett
| Tennessee
| R
| 18-40
| Big power arm, with chance for average secondary pitches.
| Beau Burrows
| Texas
| R
| 25-45
| Consistently in the mid-90s with an above-average curve. Little projection remaining.
| Dakota Chalmers
| Georgia
| R
| 30-50
| Chance for three above-average pitches, and projection left. Effort in delivery.
| Justin Hooper
| California
| L
| 30-70
| Huge kid with biggest FB in class. Inconsistent secondaries and command, strong to UCLA.
| Austin Smith
| Florida
| R
| 35-70
| Athletic with a big fastball, but raw and needs work on his secondary stuff.
| Peter Lambert
| California
| R
| 35-70
| Solid fastball with room to add more velocity.
| Juan Hillman
| Florida
| L
| 40-70
| Solid fastball and good feel for curve and change. Still room to grow.
| Triston McKenzie
| Florida
| R
| 40-70
| Huge upside at 6'5, 160. Could stick with Vandy commit and be a top-10 pick in 2018.
| Jake Woodford
| Florida
| R
| 40-70
| Sinker slider type who seems to be moving up a lot of boards.
| Luken Baker
| Texas
| P/1B
| 40-70
| Hoss of a kid at 6'4, 245. Has a plus fastball and flashes a good breaking ball.
| Kyle Molnar
| California
| R
| 45-70
| Athletic with a good track record. Solid fastball, and precocious changeup.
| Nolan Watson
| Indiana
| R
| 45-70
| Some late steam on him. Fastball has hit 95, and three solid secondaries.
| Brady Singer
| Florida
| R
| 45-70
| Fastball jumped to 96 this year and he has solid secondaries. Iffy delivery.
| Nick Neidert
| Georgia
| R
| 50-70
| Good stuff, but sore elbow and lacks ideal size.
| Drew Finley
| California
| R
| 50-70
| Average fastball, but a plus curve and advanced understanding of pitching.
| Tristan Beck
| California
| R
| 50-80
| Good present stuff with great projection, but inconsistent, and solid to Stanford.
| Chandler Day
| Ohio
| R
| 50-80
| Chance for three above-average pitches, and maybe more once he fills out.
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So yeah, that's a lot of names. As far as the Tigers go, they will absolutely take Funkhouse is he's available at 22. Seemed like that also would have been the case with Bickford, but I'm not so sure now. If their ideal college pitchers are off the board, we may see them reach a bit for a college IF like Martin or Kingery. At 34 they seem to be linked to Jacob Nix and some of the high school pitchers, but never be shocked if they reach for a hard-throwing college reliever like Ferrell or Staumont in that range. There is also some thought that they may nab the local kid Plummer if he's still there. And at 65 look for them to target one of the college OFs like Stewart, McCarthy, or Bader. Or I'll be completely wrong on everything. No one has any idea what's gonna happen.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jun 8, 2015 19:42:55 GMT -5
Josh Naylor at 12 to the Marlins is the first real surprise of the night. He had serious helium in the last few weeks because he went with the Canadian national team down to the Dominican Republic and tore it up. Lots of power...but it's awfully dangerous to take prep first basemen that early.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jun 8, 2015 20:22:00 GMT -5
Beau Burrows the pick for the Tigers. A little surprising, but this was about the range he could have landed. Here's his scouting report from MLBpipeline (where he ranked 30th):
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jun 8, 2015 22:06:32 GMT -5
Tigers take Christin Stewart at 34, LF from the University of Tennessee.
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tommyz
All-Andre Drummond
Resident Beer Expert
Posts: 134
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Post by tommyz on Jun 9, 2015 6:35:01 GMT -5
So what are the pundits thoughts on the Tigers first 3 picks?
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Post by fastfreddie on Jun 9, 2015 8:14:07 GMT -5
Chris,
With Beau Burrows (and any other High School pitchers), is the thought that they will increase pitch speed as they get into their 20s, or do we already know what their max pitch speed is by 18 years old?
The scouting report on Burrows says that he's throwing in the mid 90s. Is that potentially maxed out for him?
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jun 9, 2015 9:33:48 GMT -5
So what are the pundits thoughts on the Tigers first 3 picks? You generally don't get any hot takes in the MLB Draft (unless you go to the fans, who think they know stuff), but here is some commentary: Jim Callis Kiley McDaniel, from Fangraphs Mark Anderson, TigsTown ANALYSIS: An unconventional pick for the Tigers, who usually lean toward big, power right-handers with college experience. Burrows throws heat with a mid-to-upper 90's fastball, but stands only 6' 2" and is out of high school. He also has a curveball with plus potential. Was ranked 40th by Scout.com in the final MLB Draft rankings. Keith Law, ESPN And the ESPN scouting report: Scouting Report
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jun 9, 2015 10:06:24 GMT -5
Chris, With Beau Burrows (and any other High School pitchers), is the thought that they will increase pitch speed as they get into their 20s, or do we already know what their max pitch speed is by 18 years old? The scouting report on Burrows says that he's throwing in the mid 90s. Is that potentially maxed out for him? That's a great question, and it touches on the art of scouting projection. In general, yes, high school pitchers are expected to throw harder as they fill out and grow into their man bodies. A good example would be the kid the Indians took with pick 42, Triston McKenzie. His fastball is 89-91 right now, but he's 6'5 and maybe 165 pounds. Scouts look at his body, and his arm action, and project him to be pitching in the mid-90s or better if and when he puts on weight. It doesn't always happen though. The Rays took Kyle Lobstein out of high school in the 2nd round back in 2008, in part because he had touched the low-90s already and seemed projectable at 6'3, 200. He never added the velo though, and we see now that he sits in the 86-89 range. Now, with Burrows in particular, scouts don't see much projection left, if any. He's about 6'1, 200 right now, and unless he hits an unexpected growth spurt, that's probably the size he'll stay. The good news is that they don't need to project his fastball - it sits in the mid-90s now, and touches as high as 99. I would expect that to back up a bit once he gets into pro ball and starts pitching every 5th day. That's also not a guarantee, but I'd say it's reasonable to see him sitting 90-94 and spiking up to 96-97 in the future, but that's plenty good enough.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jun 9, 2015 11:14:11 GMT -5
Some video, and more scouting reports
Baseball America on Burrows
And on Stewart
Burrows
Stewart
Alexander
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Post by philly on Jun 9, 2015 12:27:34 GMT -5
Thanks for the information CB. They all appear to have high bust potential. Baseball scouting is damn near impossible.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jun 9, 2015 13:07:01 GMT -5
Thanks for the information CB. They all appear to have high bust potential. Baseball scouting is damn near impossible. Yep. I'll never understand how scouts can look at an 18-year-old and project how well he'll be able to hit major league breaking balls in 5 years. Burrows and Alexander at least appear to have the ability to be relievers if injuries or ineffectiveness hamper their ability to start. If Stewart doesn't hit a ton, he's not gonna be useful at all. Their 3rd rounder is in: Drew Smith, RHP, Dallas Baptist
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jun 11, 2015 9:46:18 GMT -5
Keith Law's take on the Tigers first 8 picks
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