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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 11, 2014 14:25:34 GMT -5
I give them a 1% chance of signing Scherzer. Think he ends up with the Yankees now.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 11, 2014 13:58:14 GMT -5
If a latin player says they are 33 how many years do you add on to get their real age? From wikipedia: Simón was signed on July 9, 1999, by the Philadelphia Phillies. He originally signed under the name Carlos Cabrera, and he pretended to be 21 months younger than he really was. He made his professional debut in 2000 for the La Vega Phillies in the Dominican Summer League.[1] In 2004, the Phillies found out his real name and age.[2]
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 11, 2014 11:29:02 GMT -5
It's Alfredo Simon. He is 33, sucked as a reliever, and basically sucks as a starter. Also, was once charged with involuntary manslaughter for shooting and killing a guy, and was accused of raping a woman in Washington D.C. Awesome.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 11, 2014 10:36:22 GMT -5
I think it has to be either Mike Leake or Alfredo Simon. Neither guy does much for me.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 11, 2014 10:15:33 GMT -5
Okay, so it's two minor leaguers and Cespedes for Porcello. And the Tigers are apparently trading prospects for a starter from the Reds.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 11, 2014 10:04:29 GMT -5
Report is Cespedes and a minor league pitcher for Porcello, and a 2nd deal in the works that would bring the Tigers another starter.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 11, 2014 9:48:50 GMT -5
Sounds like the Porcello for Cespedes deal is done.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 10, 2014 17:24:08 GMT -5
Wow, Wisconsin head coach Gary Anderson agrees to take the Oregon State job. That seems like a step backward.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 10, 2014 15:08:04 GMT -5
LOL
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 10, 2014 14:02:06 GMT -5
I agree about the Astros. They hit on only two guys, and gave one of them away very early. And yeah, the fact that most teams are pretty close goes to show how much of a crapshoot the MLB draft can be. The very best players tend to go in the first round, but after that it seems like pure guesswork.
EDIT: And thanks for reading guys.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 10, 2014 11:44:42 GMT -5
Pepper not posting on this board nearly enough.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 10, 2014 11:26:16 GMT -5
Jesus, the Mariners and O's are sad I don't think they're the worst, but they certainly aren't the best. I think the Cubs, Indians, and Mets have the worst track record. The Cardinals were surprisingly underwhelming to me. The Red Sox, Brewers, Braves, and Dodgers seem to have the best track record. The Tigers are pretty bad when it comes to getting MLB contributors, but they have a solid track record of hitting pretty big when they do find a contributor.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 10, 2014 10:13:28 GMT -5
I originally posted this at MotownSports in repsonse to a question about how well the Tigers have drafted, but it was kind of a lot of work, so I fugred I'd post it here too. There are a lot of different ways to look at draft success. Looking for just superstars is definitely one way to go about it, because you tend to win with stars. But the nature of the draft means stars usually go very early, and when a team like the Nationals basically sucks its way to Strasburg and Harper, do you give them credit for drafting well? And what about players like Luke Hochevar, who was taken 1-1 in 2006 and was a failed starter before becoming a good reliever. Is that a good pick when guys like Longoria, Kershaw, Lincecum, and Scherzer were drafted after him? Anyway, I've always had the impression that the Tigers have drafted pretty poorly in the Dombrowski era, while teams like the Giants and Cardinals have done very well. Fortunately, Baseball Reference has a fantastic draft database to let us fairly easily compare. For the purposes of this exercise, I'm going to look at 2002-2010. Dombrowski joined the Tigers in 2002, and 2010 seems like a reasonable cutoff, because a lot of prospects drafted in 2011 or after may have just started playing in the Bigs. I'm going to count the number of drafted and signed players who have accumulated more than than 1.0 bWAR, and the number who have accumulated more than 10.0 bWAR, list the top 5 bWAR producers, and mention some promising young players who may join the list. I'd love to compare players to people taken later in the draft, but that would be an even more epic process. So here we go, beginning with the hometown team: Tigers 440 total players drafted 15 players with 1.0 WAR 5 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft - 2005 Worst Draft - 2003 Top 5Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Verlander | 2004 | 41.4 | Granderson | 2005 | 36.5 | Alex Avila | 2008 | 11.3 | Rick Porcello | 2007 | 10.6 | Matt Joyce | 2005 | 10.6 |
Chance to JoinNick Castellanos, Bryan Holaday, Kyle Ryan, James McCann, Tyler Collins, Corey Knebel, Buck Farmer, Devon Travis And now to compare to other teams: Angels456 total players drafted 16 players with 1.0 WAR 3 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft - 2009 Worst Draft - 2007 Top 5Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Jered Weaver | 2004 | 36.5 | Mike Trout | 2009 | 28.2 | Howie Kendrick | 2002 | 27.6 | Peter Bourjos | 2005 | 9.9 | Joe Saunders | 2005 | 8.8 |
Chance to JoinRandal Grichuk, Tyler Skaggs, Kaleb Cowart, Cam Bedrosian, C.J. Cron, Mike Morin Astros433 total players drafted 10 players with 1.0 WAR 1 player with 10 WAR Best Draft - 2004 Worst Draft - pick 'em, but I'd go with 2007 Top 6Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Ben Zobrist | 2004 | 36.5 | Hunter Pence | 2004 | 26.7 | Jason Castro | 2008 | 7.1 | Bud Norris | 2006 | 5.9 | Dallas Keuchel | 2009 | 4.9 | J.D. Martinez | 2009 | 3.0 |
Chance to JoinChris Johnson, J.B. Shuck, Mike Foltynewicz, George Springer (already has), Carlos Correa, Mark Appel Athletics 419 total players drafted 19 players with 1.0 WAR 5 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft - 2002 or 2004 Worst Draft - 2009 Top 5Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Nick Swisher | 2002 | 23.2 | Andre Ethier | 2003 | 19.8 | Kurt Suzuki | 2004 | 14.1 | Huston Street | 2004 | 14.0 | Cliff Pennington | 2005 | 10.1 |
Chance to JoinDan Straily, Max Stassi, Michael Choice, Sonny Gray (already has), Blake Treinen (already has), Addison Russell, Billy McKinney Blue Jays 436 total players drafted 21 players with 1.0 WAR 2 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft - 2003 or 2009 Worst Draft - 2006 Top 5Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Aaron Hill | 2003 | 23.8 | Shawn Marcum | 2003 | 13.4 | Ricky Romero | 2005 | 9.7 | Adam Lind | 2004 | 8.6 | Yan Gomes | 2009 | 8.2 |
Chance to JoinDaniel Webb, Sean Nolin, Sam Dyson, Dalton Pompey, Noah Syndergaard, Daniel Norris, Kevin Pillar, Anthony DeSclafani, Marcus Stroman (already has), Kendall Graveman Braves 463 total players drafted 21 players with 1.0 WAR 7 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft - 2007 Worst Draft - 2004 Top 5Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Brian McCann | 2002 | 25.3 | Jason Heyward | 2007 | 24.5 | Yunel Escobar | 2004 | 23.0 | Andrelton Simmons | 2010 | 13.3 | Craig Kimbrel | 2008 | 12.3 |
Chance to JoinCorey Rasmus, Jeff Locke, Chasen Shreve, Nick Ahmed, Tommy La Stella, Alex Wood (already has), Shae Simmons Brewers 444 total players drafted 19 players with 1.0 WAR 8 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft - 2005 Worst Draft - 2006 Top 5Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Ryan Braun | 2005 | 36.0 | Prince Fielder | 2002 | 23.4 | Yovani Gallardo | 2004 | 18.7 | Jonathan Lucroy | 2007 | 15.4 | Michael Brantley | 2005 | 13.2 |
Chance to JoinJeremy Jeffress, Caleb Gindl, Jimmy Nelson Cardinals 451 total players drafted 19 players with 1.0 WAR 3 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft - 2006 Worst Draft - 2004 Top 5Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Brendan Ryan | 2003 | 15.2 | Colby Rasmus | 2005 | 13.2 | Jon Jay | 2006 | 11.2 | Matt Carpenter | 2009 | 9.9 | Daric Barton | 2005 | 9.1 |
Chance to JoinSam Freeman, Kevin Siegrist, Kolton Wong (already has), Seth Maness (already has), Michael Wacha (already has), Stephen Piscotty, Marco Gonzalez, Rob Kaminsky Cubs 453 total players drafted 17 players with 1.0 WAR 1 player with 10.0 WAR Best Draft - 2007 Worst Draft – 2005 or 2010 Top 6Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Josh Donaldson | 2007 | 16.6 | Sean Marshall | 2003 | 9.8 | Darwin Barney | 2007 | 7.9 | Randy Wells | 2002 | 7.9 | Josh Harrison | 2008 | 7.1 | Jeff Samardzija | 2006 | 7.1 |
Chance to JoinJavier Baez, Albert Almora, Kris Bryant Rays 453 total players drafted 17 players with 1.0 WAR 4 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft - 2006 Worst Draft – 2009 Top 5Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Evan Longoria | 2006 | 39.9 | David Price | 2007 | 23.1 | B.J. Upton | 2002 | 13.8 | Desmond Jennings | 2006 | 11.8 | Alex Cobb | 2006 | 9.3 |
Chance to JoinTim Beckham, Kyle Lobstein, Derek Dietrich Diamondbacks 463 total players drafted 22 players with 1.0 WAR 5 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft - 2009 Worst Draft – 2002 Top 5Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Max Scherzer | 2006 | 24.1 | Justin Upton | 2005 | 20.0 | Stephen Drew | 2004 | 15.9 | Paul Goldschmidt | 2009 | 15.6 | Carlos Quentin | 2003 | 10.5 |
Chance to JoinMatt Davidson, Chase Anderson, Zach Walters, Trevor Bauer, Andrew Chafin, Evan Marshall Dodgers 441 total players drafted 22 players with 1.0 WAR 5 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft - 2002 Worst Draft – 2009 Top 5Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Clayton Kershaw | 2006 | 41.1 | Russell Martin | 2002 | 30.1 | Matt Kemp | 2003 | 21.3 | Chad Billingsley | 2003 | 17.1 | James Loney | 2002 | 12.7 |
Chance to JoinChris Withrow, Joc Pederson, Zach Lee, Paco Rodriguez (already has), Corey Seager Giants 450 total players drafted 18 players with 1.0 WAR 4 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft - 2008 Worst Draft – 2004 Top 5Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Matt Cain | 2002 | 32.7 | Buster Posey | 2008 | 23.2 | Tim Lincecum | 2006 | 22.2 | Madison Bumgarner | 2007 | 17.1 | Brandon Belt | 2009 | 8.8 |
Chance to JoinGary Brown, Heath Hembree, Joe Panik (already has), Andrew Susac (already has), Kyle Crick Indians 461 total players drafted 19 players with 1.0 WAR 2 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft - 2008 Worst Draft – 2007 Top 5Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Jeremy Guthrie | 2002 | 20.0 | Jason Kipnis | 2009 | 11.8 | Chris Archer | 2006 | 4.6 | Vinny Pestano | 2006 | 4.6 | Lonnie Chisenhall | 2008 | 4.1 |
Chance to JoinCody Allen (already has), T.J. McFarland, Tyler Holt, Francisco Lindor, Kyle Crockett (already has) Mariners 449 total players drafted 12 players with 1.0 WAR 3 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft - 2006 Worst Draft – 2007 or 2008 Top 5Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Adam Jones | 2003 | 23.9 | Doug Fister | 2006 | 19.0 | Kyle Seager | 2009 | 13.1 | Dustin Ackley | 2009 | 8.9 | Chris Tillman | 2006 | 8.6 |
Chance to JoinShawn Kelley, Brad Miller (already has), Carson Smith, Mike Zunino, Chris Taylor (already has), Dominic Leone (already has), Taijuan Walker Marlins 457 total players drafted 15 players with 1.0 WAR 3 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft - 2002 Worst Draft – 2003 or 2006 Top 5Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Josh Johnson | 2002 | 23.8 | Giancarlo Stanton | 2007 | 21.2 | Jason Vargas | 2004 | 11.3 | Steve Cishek | 2004 | 5.5 | Christian Yelich | 2010 | 4.9 |
Chance to JoinMatt Dominguez, Brad Hand, Rob Rasmussen, J.T. Realmuto, Jose Fernandez (already has), Andrew Heaney Mets 457 total players drafted 18 players with 1.0 WAR 2 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft - 2006 Worst Draft – 2009 Top 5Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Scott Kazmir | 2002 | 19.5 | Daniel Murphy | 2006 | 10.9 | Joe Smith | 2006 | 9.9 | Jon Niese | 2005 | 7.4 | Matt Harvey | 2010 | 6.9 |
Chance to JoinMatt den Dekker, Brandon Nimmo, Kevin Plawecki Nationals454 total players drafted 17 players with 1.0 WAR 4 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft - 2005 Worst Draft – 2006 Top 5Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Ryan Zimmerman | 2005 | 34.3 | Jordan Zimmermann | 2007 | 17.8 | Ian Desmond | 2004 | 13.4 | Stephen Strasburg | 2009 | 12.7 | Bryce Harper | 2010 | 9.6 |
Chance to JoinBrad Peacock, Jake Smolinski, Steven Souza, Adrian Nieto, Michael Taylor, Robbie Ray (let’s hope), A.J. Cole, Aaron Barrett, Anthony Rendon (already has), Lucas Giolito Orioles 448 total players drafted 12 players with 1.0 WAR 3 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft - 2007 Worst Draft – 2009 Top 5Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Nick Markakis | 2003 | 25.3 | Matt Wieters | 2007 | 13.6 | Manny Machado | 2010 | 10.4 | Jake Arrieta | 2007 | 6.6 | Zach Britton | 2006 | 3.4 |
Chance to JoinDylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, Hunter Harvey Padres 436 total players drafted 19 players with 1.0 WAR 3 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft – 2005 or 2006 Worst Draft – 2009 Top 6Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Chase Headley | 2005 | 21.6 | Mat Latos | 2006 | 13.3 | Will Venable | 2005 | 12.4 | David Freese | 2006 | 9.9 | Khalil Greene | 2002 | 8.4 | Corey Kluber | 2007 | 8.2 |
Chance to JoinCesar Ramos, Dylan Axelrod, Brad Brach, Cory Spangenberg, Joe Ross, Kevin Quackenbush (already has), Austin Hedges, Max Fried Phillies 450 total players drafted 14 players with 1.0 WAR 3 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft – 2003 Worst Draft – 2005 Top 5Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Cole Hamels | 2002 | 41.8 | Michael Bourn | 2003 | 22.6 | Brad Ziegler | 2003 | 10.0 | Kyle Kendrick | 2003 | 6.1 | J.A. Happ | 2004 | 6.0 |
Chance to JoinDomonic Brown, Travis d’Arnaud, Trevor May, Jon Singleton, Josh Zeid (fingers crossed), Darin Ruf, Cameron Rupp, Jessie Biddle, Ken Giles (already has), Cody Asche Pirates 444 total players drafted 16 players with 1.0 WAR 3 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft – 2005 Worst Draft – 2007 Top 5Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Andrew McCutchen | 2005 | 33.2 | Neil Walker | 2004 | 14.2 | Paul Maholm | 2003 | 12.1 | Nyjer Morgan | 2002 | 7.4 | Tom Gorzelanny | 2003 | 7.1 |
Chance to JoinTony Sanchez, Vic Black, Jameson Taillon, Nick Kingham, Gerrit Cole (already has), Josh Bell, Tyler Glasnow Rangers 448 total players drafted 18 players with 1.0 WAR 2 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft – 2003 Worst Draft – 2004 Top 5Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Ian Kinsler | 2003 | 40.1 | John Danks | 2003 | 21.6 | Criag Gentry | 2006 | 9.5 | Chris Davis | 2006 | 9.3 | Derek Holland | 2006 | 9.0 |
Chance to JoinJesse Chavez, Robbie Erlin, Nick Tepesch, Kyle Hendricks (already has), Joey Gallo, Alex Gonzalez Red Sox458 total players drafted 16 players with 1.0 WAR 7 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft – 2005 Worst Draft – 2009 Top 5Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Dustin Pedroia | 2004 | 43.3 | Jon Lester | 2002 | 32.1 | Jacoby Ellsbury | 2005 | 24.4 | Jonathan Papelbon | 2003 | 22.6 | Clay Buchholz | 2005 | 13.0 |
Chance to JoinWill Middlebrooks, Hunter Strickland, Ryan Pressly, Stephen Fife, Alex Wilson, Reymond Fuentes, Bryce Brentz, Anthony Ranaudo, Brandon Workman, Mookie Betts (already has), Jackie Bradley, Matt Barnes, Blake Swihart, Henry Owens Reds 454 total players drafted 20 players with 1.0 WAR 4 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft – 2002 Worst Draft – 2003 Top 5Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Joey Votto | 2002 | 35.6 | Jay Bruce | 2005 | 14.3 | Todd Frazier | 2007 | 10.9 | Chris Denorfia | 2002 | 10.6 | Mike Leake | 2009 | 9.6 |
Chance to JoinTucker Barnhart, Robert Stephenson, Tony Cingrani (already has), Jesse Winker Rockies 456 total players drafted 17 players with 1.0 WAR 3 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft – 2004 Worst Draft – 2007 Top 5Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Troy Tulowitzki | 2005 | 37.6 | Chris Iannetta | 2004 | 13.8 | Dexter Fowler | 2004 | 11.4 | Seth Smith | 2004 | 9.5 | Jeff Francis | 2002 | 9.7 |
Chance to JoinBen Paulsen, Kyle Parker, Trevor Story, Eddie Butler, David Dahl, Jon Gray Royals 454 total players drafted 17 players with 1.0 WAR 3 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft – 2007 Worst Draft – 2010 Top 5Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Zack Greinke | 2002 | 42.0 | Alex Gordon | 2005 | 28.6 | Billy Butler | 2004 | 13.0 | Greg Holland | 2007 | 9.8 | Mike Aviles | 2003 | 8.7 |
Chance to JoinWil Myers, Christian Colon, Kevin Chapman, Kyle Zimmer, Hunter Dozier, Sen Manaea, Brandon Finnegan Twins 462 total players drafted 15 players with 1.0 WAR 4 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft – 2002 Worst Draft – 2006 or 2008 Top 5Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Denard Span | 2002 | 23.0 | Scott Baker | 2003 | 15.9 | Matt Garza | 2005 | 15.2 | Jesse Crain | 2002 | 11.8 | Brian Dozier | 2009 | 9.6 |
Chance to JoinSteven Tolleson, Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, J.O. Berrios, Kohl Stewart White Sox450 total players drafted 14 players with 1.0 WAR 2 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft – 2010 Worst Draft – 2009 Top 5Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Chris Sale | 2010 | 23.9 | Gio Gonzalez | 2004 | 16.5 | Brandon McCarthy | 2002 | 9.9 | Ryan Sweeney | 2003 | 6.6 | Gordon Beckham | 2008 | 6.2 |
Chance to JoinClayton Richard, Addison Reed, Erik Johnson, Chris Bassitt, Micah Johnson, Carlos Rodon Yankees450 total players drafted 14 players with 1.0 WAR 6 players with 10.0 WAR Best Draft – 2005 Worst Draft – 2007 Top 5Player | Draft Year | Total WAR | Brett Gardner | 2005 | 23.1 | Austin Jackson | 2005 | 20.3 | Ian Kennedy | 2006 | 10.9 | David Robertson | 2006 | 10.9 | Phil Hughes | 2004 | 10.5 |
Chance to JoinJ.R. Murphy, Shane Greene, Bryan Mitchell, Preston Claiborne, Mason Williams, Rob Refsnyder So how do the teams stack up? Total is the number of players drafted, and ADP is the average draft position of a team's first pick. Team | Total
| ADP | 1-WAR
| 10-WAR | 1-WAR% | 10-WAR% | Tigers
| 440
| 14th
| 15
| 5
| 3.41%
| 1.14%
| Angels
| 456
| 31st
| 16
| 3
| 3.50%
| 0.66%
| Astros
| 433
| 39th
| 10
| 1
| 2.30%
| 0.23%
| A's
| 419
| 24th
| 19
| 5
| 4.53%
| 1.19%
| Blue Jays
| 436
| 14th
| 21
| 2
| 4.81%
| 0.46%
| Braves
| 463
| 31st
| 21
| 7
| 4.53%
| 1.51%
| Brewers
| 444
| 11th
| 19
| 8
| 4.28%
| 1.80%
| Cardinals
| 451
| 31st
| 19
| 3
| 4.21%
| 0.66%
| Cubs
| 453
| 22nd
| 17
| 1
| 3.75%
| 0.22%
| D-Backs
| 463
| 14th
| 22
| 5
| 4.75%
| 1.08%
| Dodgers
| 441
| 23rd
| 22
| 5
| 4.99%
| 1.13%
| Giants
| 450
| 17th
| 18
| 4
| 4.00%
| 0.91%
| Indians
| 461
| 17th
| 19
| 2
| 4.12%
| 0.43%
| Mariners
| 449
| 27th
| 12
| 3
| 2.67%
| 0.67%
| Marlins
| 457
| 16th
| 15
| 3
| 3.28%
| 0.66%
| Team
| Total
| ADP
| 1-WAR
| 10-WAR
| 1-WAR%
| 10-WAR%
| Mets
| 457
| 22nd
| 18
| 2
| 3.93%
| 0.44%
| Nationals
| 454
| 8th
| 17
| 4
| 3.74%
| 0.88%
| Orioles
| 448
| 6th
| 12
| 3
| 2.68%
| 0.67%
| Padres
| 436
| 12th
| 19
| 3
| 4.36%
| 0.69%
| Phillies
| 450
| 39th
| 14
| 3
| 3.11%
| 0.68%
| Pirates
| 444
| 5th
| 16
| 3
| 3.60%
| 0.68%
| Rangers
| 448
| 13th
| 18
| 2
| 4.02%
| 0.45%
| Rays
| 453
| 7th
| 17
| 4
| 3.75%
| 0.88%
| Red Sox
| 458
| 36th
| 16
| 7
| 3.49%
| 1.53%
| Reds
| 454
| 10th
| 20
| 4
| 4.41%
| 0.88%
| Rockies
| 456
| 12th
| 17
| 3
| 3.73%
| 0.66%
| Royals
| 454
| 5th
| 17
| 3
| 3.74%
| 0.66%
| Twins
| 462
| 21st
| 15
| 4
| 3.25%
| 0.87%
| White Sox
| 450
| 18th
| 14
| 2
| 3.11%
| 0.44%
| Yankees
| 450
| 31st
| 14
| 6
| 3.11%
| 1.33%
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 10, 2014 9:58:23 GMT -5
Nice to have you back. Seemed like you disappeared from SI. We may have enough posters here to resurrect the old Mock Draft.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 10, 2014 9:30:51 GMT -5
I can't imagine Scherzer getting more than $170 million. But you never know with Ilitch.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 10, 2014 9:27:10 GMT -5
I think this news that they reached out to Les Miles, means Harbaugh told UM no over the weekend. It's what most of us had predicted, that Jim wants that Superbowl ring. I'm fine with Les Miles, and would really love to see him bring in Bo Pelini has is defensive coordinator. I think it's more a matter of formality so they don't upset the small group of former players who are super loyal to Les. I imagine they reached out in the same capacity they reached out to David Cutcliffe. The story that Cutcliffe was offered, and declined, is silly. Michigan has a search firm trying to winnow down candidates...they probably started with like 40 names, and have been contacting people just to gauge their interest. Cutcliffe and Miles are both on that list, and contacting them is just a part of narrowing the focus. There's zero chance Cutcliffe had a legitimate offer to be the coach...but he and his agent can certainly make it known that he was named as a candidate, and he declined. He'll get a raise in the next week.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 9, 2014 23:12:49 GMT -5
The Corner Curse continues.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 9, 2014 17:19:04 GMT -5
Approaching Santana has to be really tough, because he'll swing out of his shoes and look stupid for two strikes, and then sit there and absolutely force you to throw him a strike. And if you do, he's got like a 1-in-10 chance of hitting it 430 feet. He's a guy who forces you to execute your pitches. If you can throw a ball that really looks like a strike, I think you can go after him. If he figures everything out, he could be a monster.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 9, 2014 15:36:37 GMT -5
I'm not convinced on the Indians. I think Kluber pitched over his head last year, and that Salazar is another 2 seasons from making the Leap. Also they need more than Brantley to hit for average, which means Santana needs to pick it up a bit. Every team in the Central has holes, but I think the Indians have more than enough overall talent to compete. I wouldn't be the least bit concerned about Santana's average, because he walks so much and he hits for plenty of power. Yan Gomes is emerging into a really, really good catcher, and Brantley played at an MVP level last year. I agree with you that they need more from the offense, but I don't think they need a whole lot more. Solid contributions from Laroche and the rookie Francisco Lindor, and bounceback years for any of Swisher, Bourne, or Kipnis, and I think they're a real contender. As for pitching...Kluber probably did have a career year, but I wouldn't necessarily say he pitched over his head. He's really good. Fortunately the Tigers had his number last season, and hopefully that continues. But there were some very encouraging signs (for Cleveland) from Salazar, Carrasco, and Bauer last year. I expect them to finish with 84-90 wins next year.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 9, 2014 10:21:50 GMT -5
I started listening last week. Only through 2 episodes so far, but it's really really fascinating. No idea if he did it or not.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 9, 2014 9:19:53 GMT -5
White Sox traded for Samardzija and signed David Robertson. They have a pretty nasty rotation now. If the Tigers plan on winning the division again this year they'll really have to earn it...everyone but the Twins should compete.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 8, 2014 15:27:54 GMT -5
Why the hell would he leave ucla? I really like him as an option, but this is what I thought was too. Webb mentioned a few things that he thought might want to make him leave, including being "at a basketball school" in L.A., where you're the 3rd or 4th team on anyone's mind, and the fact that UCLA's facilities aren't on campus. Also, Michigan could probably give him a raise from like $3.5 mil a year to something more like $5 million. UCLA could probably match that though.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 8, 2014 15:20:18 GMT -5
For discussing the lottery and the draft as a whole, because good god the Pistons are awful and they should contend for a top 3 pick. Who might be available?
NBA Draft.Net 1 - Emmanuel Mudiay - G 2 - Jahlil Okafor - PF/C 3 - Karl-Anthony Towns - C 4 - Myles Turner - PF/C 5 - Stanley Johnson - SF Of Note - Caris LeVert listed 12th and Branden Dawson listed 47th Draft Express1 - Okafor 2 - Mudiay 3 - Towns 4 - Justise Winslow - SF 5 - Mario Hezonja - G/F Of Note - Caris LeVert listed 13th and Branden Dawson listed 48th Chad Ford $1 - Okafor 2 - Mudiay 3 - Towns 4 - Kristaps Porzingis - PF 5 - Kevon Looney - PF Of Note - Caris LeVert 17th, Zak Irvin 33rd
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 8, 2014 15:06:11 GMT -5
And what the hell, this doesn't really belong in here, but it was the first really in-depth post I ever made at SI. The Dombrowski Files. (8/2/2008) I promised fellow-Michigan-fan-and-otherwise-complete-stranger TMoney that I would start a thread about Dave Dombrowski, and dammit, if you can't keep your promises to complete strangers, then what good are you?
Here's the deal: Everyone is upset about the extremely disappointing year the Tigers are having, and some people would like to see Dombrowski fired as a result. I am ardently opposed to that, and I intend to use this thread to show that Dombrowski has made far more good moves as the Tigers General Manager than bad moves. At the very least, I want to show that the good moves have helped the franchise much more than the bad moves have hurt it.
That said, I'm a quantitative guy, and thus I will try to be as thorough and "scientific" as possible when looking at all the (on the field) moves for which DD is responsible. My opinion will of course taint my views, but at least we can commit all of his actions to print, as it were, and have a nice hearty discussion. So, let us begin before the 2002 season, when Dombrowski was named the president/CEO of the Tigers. Randy Smith was still technically the GM...but an 0-6 start got him and Phil Garner fired.
2002
If you click on that link you'll see the roster Dombrowski was given. Nothing else needs to be said.
Transactions
You can see the full list of transactions by clicking on the above link, though I would only count the ones after April when he officially took over GM duties. The transactions run until the start of the following season, and the vast majority of them are forgettable, but there are a few exceptions:
July 5 - Traded Jeff Weaver to the Yankees, and cash to the Athletics for Carlos Pena, Franklyn German, and a player to be named. On August 22, Oakland sent Jeremy Bonderman to complete the deal. -- Yes, the 46 Homers Pena hit last season were for a different team, and German is no longer in the Majors, but neither is Weaver. Meanwhile, despite the ragging he gets, Bonderman is a quality pitcher who, when he's right, can be dominant. In terms of overall value, this trade is an absolute A
Sept. 7 - Released Jose Lima. -- Lima was awful that year, but he did go on to win 13 games a few years later. Still, I don't think this move hurt much. Grade: B
Nov. 27 - Signed Guillermo Moscoso as a non-drafted free agent. -- Signed at 19, Moscoso has taken his time, but he could be a key arm going forward. Grade: C
Dec. 16 - Drafted Wilfredo Ledezma from the Boston Red Sox. (rule 5) -- Ledezma never really panned out, but he was a serviceable reliever in 2006, and the Tigers traded him for Macay McBride the following year. Grade: C
Jan. 11, 2003 - Traded Mark Redman and Jerrod Fuell (minors) to the Florida Marlins. Received Gary Knotts, Nate Robertson, and Rob Henkel (minors). -- Redman is 45-55 since this trade, with a 5.00 ERA, though he did pitch well for Florida in 2003 and he was Kansas City's lone All-Star in 2006. Fuell never saw the Majors. Knotts went 10-14 for Detroit with a 5.58 ERA, Henkel never made it, and Nate has gone 48-62 with a 4.73 ERA since then. He had a good 2006 season, but otherwise this trade was kind of a wash. Grade: C-
Feb. 5, 2003 - Signed Wilkin Ramirez and a non-drafted free agent. -- Probably the best mix of power and speed in the system, Wilkin has an outside chance of helping Detroit in late 2009. Grade: B-
Mar. 28, 2003 - Released Damion Easley -- Easley slugged a robust .355 that year, yet was making $6.25 mil. He's been a part time player ever since. Grade: B
Draft
Round 1 - Scott Moore - Career minor leaguer. Round 2 - Brent Clevlen - Good year in AAA, flashes big league tools, but has yet to put it all together. Round 3 - Curtis Granderson - All-Star caliber center fielder. Round 3 - Matt Pender - career over by 2004. Round 11 - Joel Zumaya - Electric arm still a key part of the team's future. Round 13 - Anthony Reyes - Didn't sign, and went on to beat the Tigers in the 2006 World Series.
Who they could have taken instead of Moore: Jeff Francis, Jeremy Hermida, Joe Saunders, Khalil Greene, Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher, Cole Hamels, James Loney, Jeremy Guthrie, Jeff Francoeur, Joe Blanton, Matt Cain,
Overall: A- -- Moore was a bust, made more prominent by the talent taken after him, and the book is still out on Clevlen, but any time you can get a player like Granderson and an arm like Zumaya, I think you're doing okay.
Other: Fired manager Phil Garner, hired Luis Pujols as his replacement.
2003
I'm pretty confident in stating that this was the worst baseball team I'll ever see in my lifetime. Dombrowski clearly knew this team would be awful, and thus he pulled a publicity stunt by hiring Trammel, Gibby, and Parrish as coaches. Most saw the hirings for what they were worth, but they at least generated some interest in the team.
Transactions
April 29 - Released Craig Paquette. -- He was their 6th highest paid player ($2.625 mil) and he was awful. He never played another game. Grade: A
May 12 - Signed Freddi Dolsi as a non-drafted free agent. -- Too soon to tell about him, but he has a great arm and closer potential. Grade: B
May 22 - Signed 17-year-old Jair Jurrjens as an amateur free agent. -- He certainly seems to be a quality Big League pitcher. Grade: A
May 27 - Traded Chad Petty and Noochie Varner to the Milwaukee Brewers. Received Alex Sanchez. -- Sanchez was a strange player, in that he could hit .300 and steal you 50 bases, but he would also get caught stealing 25+ times and never walked. This wasn't a fleecing by any means, but Sanchez at least helped for one year, and the other guys never made it. Grade: C+
August 27 - Released Steve Sparks. -- Somehow this bum was making $4.5 million. He won three more games in his big league career. Grade: A
December 7 - Signed Marcus Thames as a free agent. -- There are times when Marcus looks like Ryan Howard, and other times when he looks like Rob Deer. He does had prodigious power though, and he certainly helped out the 2006 team. Not bad for a free agent. Grade: B+
December 15 - Drafted Chris Shelton from the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 2003 rule 5 draft. -- There was a time when this looked like the deal of the century, but we now know Shelton to be merely a fluke. Still, he did help in 2006. Grade: C+
December 19 - Signed Fernando Vina and Rondell White as free agents. -- Vina landed a two-year, $6 million contract from the Tigers. He played all of 29 games. Grade: F White received the same deal, but was fairly productive in Detroit: .290, with 31 HR and 120 RBI in 218 games over two seasons. Grade: B
December 30 - Signed Jason Johnson as a free agent. -- As ridiculous as it sounds now, Johnson was supposed to be our Ace. He got $7 mil for two seasons, and proceeded to go 16-28 with a 4.82 ERA. Grade: D-
January 8, 2004 - Traded Ramon Santiago and Juan Gonzalez (minors) to the Seattle Mariners. Received Carlos Guillen. -- Well, well, well...this move wasn't half bad, now was it? Especially when you consider that Juan Gonzalez is still in the minors, and Santiago is back on the team. Guillen has hit .309 with 74 HR, 390R, 358 RBI, and 55 steals in 623 games spanning 4+ seasons. Grade: A+
February 6, 2004 - Signed Ivan Rodriguez as a free agent. -- This was the big one; a move that perhaps ended up having more symbolic value than on-field value. It showed that the Tigers were serious about turning around their fortunes. Pudge hit .298 with 62 HR, 300R, 300RBI, and 30 steals in 611 games spanning 4+ seasons. The price tag was rather hefty though, coming in at around $50 mil for 5 seasons. That said, it's not my money. Grade: A
March 29, 2004 - Signed Ugueth Urbina as a free agent. -- Ooh Gee signed for about $4 mil, and he was coming off a season in which he recorded 32 saves with a 2.81 ERA. At the age of 30, he certainly looked like a viable closer. However, with the Tigers he had a poor 2004 season and was shiped off the the Phillies a year later when he went nuts on the team plane. Grade: D+
April 1, 2004 - Traded Cody Ross to the LA Dodgers for Steve Colyer. -- Colyer was pretty darn awful in 2004, posting a 6.47 ERA in 41 appearances. Ross, on the other hand, has seen moderate success as a big leaguer, though he remains not much more than a platoon outfielder. Grade: D+
Draft Round 1 - Kyle Sleeth - Career derailed by injuries, and I blame this quote from MLB.com "Long career likely." Round 2 - Jay Sborz - Injuries and ineffectiveness have been his hallmarks thus far. Round 3 - Tony Giarratano - career ruined by injuries. Round 4 - Josh Rainwater - Progressing through the minor, though unlikely to ever see the Bigs. Round 5 - Danny Zell - Outside shot of becoming a lefty specialist in the majors, though unlikely. Round 7 - Virgil Vasquez - Fairly effective AAA pitcher who doesn't have the stuff for the Majors. Round 11 - Brian Rogers - Notable only for being the player shipped to Pittsburgh for Sean Casey. Traded back to Detroit for Denny Bautista. Round 16 - Jordan Tata - Once intriguing arm on the long road to recovery...or inching closer to oblivion. Round 48 - Dusty Ryan - Big kid with some decent pop may be Detroit's backup catcher next season.
Who they could have taken instead of Sleeth: Nick Markakis, Paul Maholm, John Danks, Ian Stewart, Lastings Milledge, Aaron Hill, Conor Jackson, Chad Cordero, Chad Billingsley, Carlos Quentin, Saltalamacchia, Adam Jones.
Overall: D- --It's tough when your hopes hinge on Tata and a potential backup catcher.
2004
This team, led by Pudge Rodriguez, improved by 29 games over the 2003 squad, but they still had a long way to go. There were good signs though, with players like Pena, Monroe, Infante, Bonderman, and Robertson showing promise.
Transactions Not a whole lot to talk about here.
April 12, 2004 - Signed Esteban Yan as a free agent. -- Yan was relatively inexpensive at $650,000, and he actually had one of his most productive years in Detroit as a setup man and occasional closer. Grade: B
August 13 - Released Danny Patterson. -- This guy was making close to $3 mil, and like many others, after being released by Detroit, he never played again. Grade C+
October 15 - Matt Anderson granted Free Agency. -- Once future closer had become a $3-4 million albatross. Only pitched 10 innings since. Grade: C+
November 18 - Signed Troy Percival as a free agent. -- Percival was brought in to be the hammer at the end of the bullpen, but he was awful in his half-season (25 IP, 5.76 ERA) and then he suffered what was thought to be a career-ending injury. Not the sort of production you want for a 2-year, $12 million contract. Grade: F
December 21 - Eric Munson granted Free Agency. -- Munson was a high draft pick, but it became clear that he wasn't worth the $2 Mil he would have made. He's done very little since. Grade: B
January 5, 2005 - Traded Anderson Hernandez to the New York Mets for Vance Wilson. -- Not a huge Deal, but Vance was a quality backup catcher before getting hurt. Hernandez has seen 87 ABs in parts of three seasons. Grade: C+
February 7, 2005 - Signed Magglio Ordonez as a free agent. -- This was certainly a risky deal, with Magglio coming off a strange surgery, yet still getting a huge contract. Since signing, Maggs has hit .324, with 74HR , 286R, and 351RBI in 488 games. Grade: A
February 9, 2005 - Traded Roberto Novoa, Scott Moore, and Bo Flowers (minors) to the Chicago Cubs. Received Kyle Farnsworth. -- Novoa pitched a bit for the Cubs, Moore is with the Orioles now, and Flowers never made it. Farnsworth was pretty damn solid for Detroit, though he only lasted for a few months. Grade: B
February 10, 2005 - Signed Jason Grilli as a free agent. -- Yikes, the gas can. Grilli was serviceable in long relief, if annoyingly inconsistent. He was only making like $350,000 though. Grade: C
March 7, 2005 -- Signed Alfredo Figaro as a Minor League free agent. -- Kid has been dominant in the low minors this year, and could be one to watch going forward. Grade: C
Draft
Round 1 - Justin Verlander - He almost didn't sign, but the Tigers called his bluff and I'd say the pick worked out for everyone. Round 2 - Eric Beattie - Career never got off the ground. Round 3 - Jeff Frazier - Unlikely to see the Majors. Was trade to Seattle for Yorman Bazardo, but is back in the Tigers' system. Round 4 - Collin Mahoney - Another guy whose career never went anywhere. Round 5 - Andrew Kown - Doesn't appear to be heading anywhere. Round 14 - James Skelton - Continues to hit and get on base in the minors, just bumped up for a late-season test in AA. Round 34 - Dallas Trahern - Key cog in the trade for Cabrera and Willis. Round 50 - Max Leon - Zero power, but a chance to be a 5th of 6th infielder in the majors.
Who they could have taken instead of Verlander: Jered Weaver, Billy Butler, Stephen Drew, Glen Perkins, Phil Hughes.
Overall: A- -- This grade is almost entirely due to Verlander, but Trahern was valuable, and Skelton could contribute soon.
2005
Expected to compete, the Tigers hung around for a few months, but there were some definite clubhouse problems, and Magglio and Guillen missed half of the season.
Transactions
June 8 - Traded Ugueth Urbina and Ramon Martinez to the Philadelphia Phillies for Placido Polanco. -- Polanco has been fantastic for the Tigers: .321, 23HR, 283R, 193RBI in 434 games. Urbina is in prison. Grade: A+
July 31 - Traded Kyle Farnsworth to the Atlanta Braves for Roman Colon and Zach Miner. -- Farnsworth was not going to re-sign. Colon was the better prospect, but was ineffective and attacked a teammate. Miner has been a solid reliever, and has twice given the rotation a lift. Grade: B-
October 31 - Bobby Higginson granted Free Agency. -- The last of the awful contracts Dombrowski had to get rid of. Was making $9 million to not be in the clubhouse. Grade: B+
November 14 - Signed Chad Durbin as a free agent. -- Durbin was decent in 19 starts for the 2007 team. Grade: C+
Nov. 16 - Signed Luis Marte as an undrafted Free Agent. -- Intriguing arm could help as soon as 2009. Grade: C
November 22 - Signed Bobby Seay as a free agent. -- Key lefty reliever for the past 3 years. Grade: B-
December 15 - Signed Kenny Rogers as a free agent. -- Given a hefty two-year, $16 million contract. Was outstanding in 2006, and injured in 2007. Has compiled a 28-19 record, with a 4.19 ERA. Grade: B+
December 22 - Signed Todd Jones as a free agent. -- With Urbina and Farnsworth gone, and Percival apparently done, Jones was signed to be the closer. For as much grief as he has receiver, for the most part he's done his job. Has compiled a 7-11 record, with 93 Saves and 4.33 ERA. Grade: B
March 26, 2006 - Released Carlos Pena. -- They gave him a shot, but he wasn't consistent enough. His ridiculous 2007 year makes this look bad, but Boston gave up on him too, and he probably needed a change of scenery. Grade: C-
Draft
Round 1 - Cameron Maybin - Tigers went over slot to sign him, and he was the key member of the trade to get Cabrera and Willis. Still considered one of the best prospects in baseball. Round 3 - Chris Robinson - Light-hitting catcher was later traded for Neifi Perez. Round 4 - Kevin Whelan - Solid arm was trade in the Sheffield deal. Round 5 - Jeff Larish - I've never been high on Larish, but some scouts and fans still believe in him. Round 6 - Clete Thomas - Quality player who profiles as a 4th outfielder. Round 11 - Anthony Claggett - Also traded to New York for Sheff. Round 12 - Matt Joyce - Talented young power hitter could blossom into an everyday player. Round 14 - Casper Wells - Intriguing OF prospect has shown a nice combination of power and speed. Round 16 - Mike Hollimon - Doesn't hit for much average, but could potentially be Detroit's starting shortstop in 2009. Round 19 - Burke Badenhop - Sinkerballer was another player traded in the Cabrera deal. Round 30 - Ryan Roberson - Big First Baseman has a lot of pop, but little plate discipline. Round 38 - Zach Putnam - Local kid was never gonna sign.
Who they could have taken instead of Maybin: Jay Bruce, Chris Volstad, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Garza, Clay Buchholz
Overall: A+ This draft helped the team land some big-time talent, and it still holds a remarkable number of guys who could potentially help a big league club. Outstanding.
Other: Fired Alan Trammell, and hired Jim Leyland in October 2005.
2006 Not much needs to be said about this season, other than it was magical, and a number of players had career years.
Transactions
July 31 - Traded Brian Rogers to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Sean Casey. -- Casey was a boon to the team, and they gave up relatively nothing for him. Grade: B+
August 20 - Traded Chris Robinson (minors) to the Chicago Cubs for Neifi Perez. -- Even though Robinson has done nothing, Perez was pretty damn awful. Leyland pushed for this trade with Polanco hurt, but DD could have pushed for more PT for Infante. Grade: D
September 6 - Released Dmitri Young. -- DY had become a clubhouse distraction, so they chose to eat the remainder of his contract. He came back in a big way last year, but he needed to go. Grade: B
September 15 - Selected Matt Stairs off waivers from the Texas Rangers. -- Stairs provided a late boost to a struggling team. Grade: C+
October 15 - Ryan Ludwick granted Free Agency. -- Not much was thought of it at the time, as Ludwick was generally considered a 4A player. Ludwick has instead become an All-Star. The Tigers may not have had room for him, and it may be a fluke, but you never wnat to give away an All-Star for nothing. Grade: D-
November 2 - Troy Percival granted Free Agency. -- Percival has of course come back to be a closer again, but I can't kill them for this, because at the time it looked like he was done. Grade: C
November 10 - Traded Anthony Claggett, Humberto Sanchez, and Kevin Whelan to the New York Yankees for Gary Sheffield. -- Every day this trade inches closer to an F. Whelan and Claggett have been useful arms in the Yankees system, and Fat Bert, though he was injured, is still one of the better arms in their system. Meanwhile, Sheff has given Detroit approximately two good months in return for the $40 million he will make. Grade: D-
November 16 - Signed Sean Casey as a free agent. -- One-year deal was a good move. Grade: B
November 17 - Signed Tim Byrdak as a free agent. -- Brydak was a solid bullpen lefty for the team in 2007. Grade: B
December 12 - Signed Jose Mesa as a free agent. -- Mesa was over-the-hill when they signed him, and he proved it by giving up 16 ER in fewer than 12 innings. Grade: F
December 9 - Tigers sign Brandon Inge to a four-year, $24 mil contract. -- This was a bad contract for a below-average third baseman, but it's actually not an awful deal for an average catcher. Grade: C
December 18 - Tigers sign Jeremy Bonderman to a four-year, $38 mil contract. -- This was actually a fairly good deal for a young power pitcher coming off a 200 K season, but he underperformed in 2007 and was injured this year. Grade: C
February 7, 2007 - Traded Jeff Frazier to the Seattle Mariners for Yorman Bazardo. -- Bazardo has the talent to make this a steal, but he has been awful in Toledo this year. Detroit got Frazier back, so it doesn't hurt. Grade: C
Draft
Round 1- Andrew Miller - Tigers again went over slot to sign the best arm in the draft. Key player in the Cabrera/Willis deal. Round 2 - Ron Bourquin - Has been very disappointing. Round 3 - Brennan Boesch - Unremarkable career so far. Round 4 - Ryan Strieby - Promising slugger knocking the stuffing out of the ball in Lakeland. Round 5 - Scott Sizemore - Very solid player could potentially replace Polanco. Round 7 - Jonah Nickerson - Doesn't have great stuff, but could be Detroit's 5th starter in 2010. Round 8 - Chris Cody - Interesting arm was traded for Jose Capellan in 2007. Round 14 - Brett Jensen - Promising relief candidate went down for elbow surgery this season. Round 16 - Jeff Gerbe - Pretty much the same story as Jensen. Round 19 - Duane Below - Much like Nickerson, Below doesn't have outstanding stuff but he has performed well, and could one day be a back-of-the-rotation starter in Detroit. Round 20 - Casey Fien - Reliever has moved quickly, and could figure into the bullpen conversation next year.
Players they could have taken instead of Miller: Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Chris Perez
Overall: B+ Grabbing Miller again showed the Tigers were serious about improving the team, and they landed a number of players who are on track to help soon.
2007
The Tigers were the best team in baseball for much of the early part of the season, but they inexplicably fell apart in July and August and ended up missing the playoffs.
Transactions
June 20 - Traded Wilfredo Ledezma to the Atlanta Braves for Macay McBride. -- Basically an even trade, though McBride has been injured this season. Grade: C
June 22 - Traded Mike Maroth to the St. Louis Cardinals for Chris Lambert. -- Maroth is now out of baseball, while Lambert, a former 1st round pick, has pitched very well in Toledo. He may not help the Tigers, but at least they got something for Maroth. Grade: B
July 1 - Traded Chris Cody to Milwaukee for Jose Capellan. -- Capellan has a power arm, but did poorly in 14 IP for the Tigers. Cody could help the Brewers bullpen as soon as next year. Grade: D
August 14 - Traded Jack Hannahan to Oakland for Jason Perry. -- Perry is no longer with the Tigers, and Hannahan has been a below-average big leaguer for Oakland. Grade: C-
August 23 - Traded Craig Monroe and cash to the Cubs for Clay Rapada. -- Craig Money was a good story in 2006, but he proved to be a fluke, and has since been dropped by the Cubs and the Twins. Rapada looks like he could be a decent lefty reliever. Grade: C+
October 29 - Traded Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez to Atlanta for Edgar Renteria. -- Well, this bears all the hallmarks of a fleecing. Jurrjens has been outstanding, and looks like he could remain that way for years. Hernandez has been holding his own in high-A, though injuries seem to have hampered his speed so far. Meanwhile, Renteria, a career .290 hitter who made multiple All Star teams, is having his worst offensive season by far. I suspect the Tigers will give him another chance next season. If they do and he's this bad again, or if they don't re-sign, this will easily be the worst deal of Dombrowski's tenure as GM. The only thing that can save it is if Edgar comes back and is an All-Star next season. Grade: F
November 12 - Traded Omar Infante to the Cubs for Jacque Jones. -- I guess the club had just soured on Infante and felt they needed a left-handed bat, but Jones was a complete bust here, and was released after two months. Infante has played well for Atlanta this year. Grade: F
November 13 - Re-signed Todd Jones. -- With Zumaya injuring his shoulder, the Tigers suddenly had to reassess their closer situation. Jones did his job for the first few months of the year, but he pitched poorly, is now injured, and his career is likely over. Grade: D
November 30 - Re-signed LHP Kenny Rogers to a one-year contract. -- Detroit still needed innings, and Rogers has performed adequately. Grade: C-
November 30 - Signed RHP Francisco Cruceta to a one-year contract. -- Cruceta was billed as a guy who could come in and really help the bullpen, but he had Visa problems, and then pitching problems. He's still in the system though. Grade: D
December 4 - Traded Jose Capellan to Colorado for Denny Bautista. -- Another guy who was supposed to help the bullpen, Bautista was wild an ineffective. Capellan would have been the same. Grade: C-
December 5 - Traded Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Dallas Trahern, Burke Badenhop, Eulogio De La Cruz, and Mike Rabelo to Florida for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. -- I suspect some will disagree with my grade here, but even if Willis never pitches again, it would take Maybin becoming the next Ken Griffey Jr. and Miller winning a Cy Young for this to be a bad trade. Cabrera will be the cornerstone of this franchise for years. Grade: A
December 20 - Signed LHP Dontrelle Willis to a three-year contract extension. -- This is the deal that really bothers people, but I sort of buy Dombrowski's explanation: If you feel good enough about the guy to trade for him, then you might as well lock him up. It looks very bad now, but the book isn't closed yet. Grade: D
January 16, 2008 - Signed Nate Robertson to a three-year, $21 mil contract. -- This one was definitely a puzzler, but apparently they thought Nate could return to his form in 2006, when he pitched well enough to win 15-17 games. So far though, he has been awful, and looks like a minor leaguer. Grade: D-
January 17, 2008 - Signed Marcus Thames to a one-year, $1.25 mil contract. -- Marcus put a real spark into the team this year, and continues to provide a lot of power. Grade: B
February 4, 2008 - Signed Curtis Granderson to a five-year, $30.25 mil contract with a club option for 2013. -- Nice move to lock down one of the best young centerfielders in baseball. Decent price too. Grade: A
February 5, 2008 - Traded Michael Hernandez to Texas for Armando Galarraga. -- Even if Galarraga is a fluke, Hernandez is going nowhere, which makes this an absolute steal. Grade: A
Draft Round 1 - Rick Porcello - Detroit once again went over slot to land one of the best arms in the draft. Kid looks like the real deal. Round 1A - Brandon Hamilton - Hamilton has good stuff, but he's at least 3 years away. Round 2 - Danny Worth - Has struggled a bit in the field, but has moved very rapidly, and could be in the Bigs next year. Round 3 - Luke Putkonen - Nothing special, and too soon to tell. Round 4 - Charlie Furbush - Lefty had a great pro debut and looked like he could move quickly, but went down with an arm injury. Round 5 - Casey Crosby - Detroit went over slot again for this power lefty who throws in the low-mid 90s and is very athletic. He needs refinement, and is rehabbing from TJ surgery. Round 6 - Cale Iorg - The team again went over slot, and Iorg is the team's best position prospect. He is still adjusting to baseball after a two-year break for his Mormon mission, but he could help at 3rd or SS as soon as late 2009. Round 9 - Justin Henry - Speedy kid with a great eye, could be Polanco's replacement if Sizemore or Hollimon don't cut it. Round 13 - Londell Taylor - Extremely athletic kid is also extremely raw. Round 26 - Matt Hoffman - Another guy Detroit paid extra to land, Hoffman is a lefty with a promising arm. Round 30 - Jonathan Kibler - This Sparty has absolutely handcuffed hitters in A-ball, and could be a late-round gem. Round 34 - Kyle Peter - Speed-demon with a good eye.
Overall: B+ Hard to say this early, but Porcello has been outstanding, Iorg should help soon, and a few others look promising.
2008
The 2008 season, thus far, has been a massive disappointment. Dontrelle Willis, Edgar Renteria, Jacque Jones, and Gary Sheffield have been complete busts, Bonderman is out for the year with an injury, Robertson and Rogers have been disappointing, Verlander has underperformed, and the bullpen has been awful. It's amazing they are .500.
Transactions
April 30 - Traded Jason Gilli to Colorado for Zach Simons. -- I, like everyone, was amazed they could trade Grilli, and on top of that this Simons kid has actually been very good for Lakeland. Grilli has been decent for Colorado. Grade: C+
May 13 - Released Jacque Jones. -- The Jones experiment was over quickly. It gave Joyce a chance to play though. Grade: D+
June 10 - Optioned Dontrelle Willis to Single-A Lakeland. -- A move that had to be made. Grade: NA
July 30 - Traded Ivan Rodriguez to the Yankees for Kyle Farnsworth. -- Detroit needed bullpen help, and they were ready to move on with Inge at catcher. In the end, this deal is unlikely to make a difference one way or the other. Grade: C
Draft
Round 1 - Ryan Perry - Power reliever who should move quickly. Round 3 - Cody Satterwhite - Another power reliever. Round 4 - Minor League Baseball: Stats: Player - Power reliever. Round 6 - Brett Jacobson - Guess what he is? Round 7 - Alex Avila - Son of assistant GM Al Avila. Seems to have a decent eye. Round 8 - Tyler Stohr - Yeah...a reliever. Round 9 - Jade Todd - High school lefty starter worth watching. Round 11 - Anthony Shawler - Interesting starter who misses a lot of bats. Round 12 - Robert Weinhardt - Another power reliever. Round 13 - Minor League Baseball: Stats: Player - Has begun his pro career absolutely raking. Round 18 - Thad Weber - Another power reliever.
Overall: NA It's just too soon to know anything, though the overemphasis on hard-throwing college relievers is puzzling. I suspect they will try to turn at least a few of them into starters.
END
So there is it, my rundown of Dave Dombrowski's tenure as the GM of the Detroit Tigers. I think he's done a fine job, though I can concede that a larger percentage of his recent moves have been unsuccessful. The trades for Sheffield and Renteria are looking worse every day, and the contracts to Willis, Robertson, and Inge are certainly questionable. Still, I think he made all the moves with the intention of winning right now, and I can't fault him for that. I don't agree with this year's draft strategy, but in general I think he has stocked the minors with a lot of talent that can help the big league team in one way or another.
The ultimate question for me is, has Dave Dombrowski furnished this team with enough talent to win? I think he has.
Thoughts?
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 8, 2014 14:52:23 GMT -5
The last prospect update I ever did at the Inferno (8/28/14). This will probably evolve into my list for next year. So yeah, since the rosters are about to expand, the minor league season is almost over, and who knows if this board will be around next April, I'll just go ahead and do a quick preview of what my rankings would probably look like next season. Age on April 1 of next year in ()
1 - Derek Hill - OF - (19) - First round pick this year, Hill projects to be an elite defensive CF with plus-plus speed that plays on the bases and in the field. He's a bit raw as a hitter, but projects to be at least average, and he should have average power in his prime.
2 - Jonathon Crawford - RHP - (23) - Numbers in low-A aren't great, and ideally he would have been a level or two higher, but he still has a very good slider, and a legit fastball that sits in the low-90s with heavy movement, and can peak at 96-97 when he needs to. Issues with command and his changeup may send him to the bullpen, but he could possibly be a closer.
3 - Robbie Ray - LHP - (23) - With every MLB start he looks worse and worse, but he's still young and he still has talent. I'm not a huge fan...but this isn't a great system. On the 40-man, I expect him to be up in September.
4 - James McCann - C - (24) - Always considered a plus defender, he showed some real offensive promise this year, flirting for .300 and hitting more than 30 doubles. An ideal platoon partner for Avila. He's not currently on the 40-man roster, but I give him about a 33% chance of coming up in September.
5 - Steven Moya - OF - (23) - A truly fascinating prospect because he such a giant (6'7, 235) with so much power (34 HR, 32 2B this season) and he's a solid athlete and defender, but he's got an 8-to-1 K/BB rate, and scouts are very skeptical he'll hit enough in the Majors. On the 40-man roster, and I give him about a 25% chance of coming up in September. He's also scheduled to play in the Arizona Fall League.
6 - Buck Farmer - RHP - (24) - It's easy to look at his last MLB start (7 ER) and his only AAA start (7 ER) and say Farmer isn't good, but he has actually been one of the more pleasant surprises for the system this year. He was signed as a senior, which usually means he'd be an org guy, but his fastball took a step forward, and both his change and his curve flash as above-average pitches. His command needs to take two steps forward, but he's got a chance to be a decent #4 starter. I bet we'll see him in some capacity in September.
7 - Devon Travis - 2B - (24) - I'm still somewhat skeptical about Travis, but he continues to hit well (.296/.357/.457), show surprising pop for his size, and even steal bases at a decent rate despite being an average runner at best. He's also a pretty solid defender. I don't think he's a regular for an MLB contender, but he should make the Majors. Headed to the AFL.
8 - Hernan Perez - 2B/UTIL - (24) - Solid player with a decent bat and good speed. I don't see him as a regular at the MLB level, but he should have a decent career as a utility infielder. I give him an 80% chance of coming up in September.
9 - Drew VerHagen - RHP - (24) - We saw him for one MLB start, but then he injured his back. Has a pretty good fastball, but the secondary stuff is average. He throws strikes though, and could fit into the back end of the rotation. I like him more as a reliever. As I mentioned, he's hurt, but he's on the AFL roster.
10 - Dixon Machado - SS - (23) - One of the most pleasant surprises this year is that Dixon Machado has begun to hit. He always had a lot of things going for him -- namely his near elite glove and a 70-grade arm, but also very good plate discipline -- but he could never impact the ball. But this year in AA he has hit .297/.381/.440 with 22 doubles and 5 homers, all while still playing excellent defense at shortstop. He's not Iglesias with the glove, but he's damn good, and he'll see the Majors. I give him a 20% chance of it happening this year.
11 - Harold Castro - 2B - (21) - Might have the best pure hit tool of anyone in the Tigers minor-league system, and he's still my bet for having the best chance among their many 2B prospects to be an MLB regular, but he's having a very odd year. He's hitting .316 in high-A, but he's only playing like once every 3 days, and he's not showing any power or the ability to steal bases, despite being a good runner. I don't know...he could be in the top-5 next year, or not on the list at all.
12 - Spencer Turnbull - RHP - (22) - Picked in the 2nd round this year, Turnbull is a classic Tigers pitcher - big, strong, with a fastball in the mid-90s and questionable secondary stuff and command. Has a chance to be a #4 starter, could be a late-inning reliever, or he could do both like fellow Crimson Tide alum Tommy Hunter.
13 - Kevin Ziomek - LHP - (23) - The Tigers 2nd round pick in 2013, Ziomek has dominated in low-A all year with his high-80s fastball, sweepy curve, and advanced changeup. I'm skeptical he'll continue to find that success at higher levels, but I think he could be a 5th starter.
14 - Artie Lewicki - RHP - (22) - Lewicki missed 2013 with TJ surgery, but the Tigers took him in the 8th round this year out of Virginia, and he has the stuff of a guy who should have been taken higher. He throws a low-90s fastball that can get to 95, he has a solid slider that flashes plus, and he has a durable frame that allows him to maintain his stuff deep into games. Chance to be a #4 starter.
15 - Adam Ravenelle - RHP - (22) - Interesting pick by the Tigers in the 4th round this year, because Ravenelle had arm trouble at Vandy and rarely pitched in his first two years before serving as a reliever for Vandy. But the Tigers took him as a starter, and he may be able to hang there, because he has three decent pitches. Has to stay healthy and get innings though.
16 -Grayson Greiner - C -(22) - At 6'6, I believe Greiner would be the tallest catcher in MLB history. But the Tigers took him in the 3rd round this year because they think he has a chance to make it, largely thanks to his very strong defense. He can swing the stick a bit, and has some raw pop, but he's most likely a platoon player.
17 - Tyler Collins - OF - (24) - We saw him a bit this year, but he proved he wasn't ready for the Majors. He's still a 4th OF at best, offering some lefty pop and the ability to play all three OF positions (even though he's not good in CF or ideal in RF). On the 40-man, so I give him a 75% chance of coming up in September.
18 - Daniel Fields - OF - (24) - Fields is more well-rounded than Collins, and a better defender, but he has serious contact issues. Could be a solid defensive replacement in September. On the 40-man, so I give him a 50% chance of coming up.
19 - Domingo Leyba - 2B - (19) - Leyba was dominant in the Domincan Summer League last year, but scouting reports have him doing it more with a grinder mentality and good instincts than tools. He didn't start playing until mid year, and skipped over rookie ball to short-season Connecticut. Then he jumped to low-A, and he has been hitting the cover off the ball for more than a month. His success is very nice, but as I said, the tools don't project to be much more than average.
20 - Javier Betancourt - 2B - (20) - Almost the exact same player a Leyba. Betancourt is a solid hitter with an advanced understanding of the game, and a little bit of positional flexibility, though his only shot at being a regular is at 2B.
21 - Edgar De La Rosa - RHP - (24) - Really big guy with a really big fastball, and some really big command issues. Still being developed as a starter, but I think he may help in the bullpen eventually.
22 - Anthony Castro - RHP - (19) - Castro is a young kid pitching in the GCL, but he has shown flashes of really nice stuff that gives him the potential to be a mid-rotation starter. It's a long way away, though, so he stays down the list.
23 - Connor Harrell - OF - (24) - Like Collins and Fields, Harrell figures to be a 4th OF at best, but I suspect he'll put up numbers in AA next year that make people start talking about him as a potential answer in CF. He is not, because he won't be able to hit much. But, he is an above-average fielder, with above-average speed, and above-average raw power. He could be very useful.
24 - Angel Nesbitt - RHP - (24) - Stocky, powerful reliever has a mid-90s fastball that moves a bit, and a decent slider that flashes as an above-average pitch. Probably not gonna be more than a 7th inning guy, but not too far away.
25 - Steven Fuentes - 3B - (20) - If I had to pick one kid on this list who might rocket into the top 5 in the next two years, it would be Fuentes. He's a well-built with good tools, and he's starting to put them to use on the field. A switch-hitter too, which is nice. Wouldn't be shocked if he moves to an OF corner eventually.
26 - Zac Reininger - RHP - (23) - Working exclusively as a reliever, Reininger has been pretty dominant thus far, using a fastball that can creep up to 93-94, and two very solid breaking balls. Should see some time in AA next year.
27 - Melvin Mercedes - RHP - (24) - We've seen the chunky Mercedes once, and he actually pitched fairly well. He throws almost side-armed, which gives his mid-90s fastball a lot of run, but makes his slider pretty spinny. He did flash a decent changeup in his MLB debut, which was unexpected. Chance to help in the bullpen, but must learn to miss more bats. I expect to see him in September.
28 - Chad Smith - RHP - (25) - Basically a skinnier version of Mercedes. Smith has a mid-90s heater with a lot of run into righties and a decent slider, but lefties kind of eat him alive. Another guy who may help in the bullpen, and another guy I expect to see in September.
29 - Jose Valdez - RHP - (25) - Oh hey, a hard throwing reliever with a fastball in the mid-90s and a short slider that isn't terribly effective. Get in line. On the 40-man, but I give him a 10% chance of coming up in September.
30 - Kyle Lobstein - LHP - (25) - Acquired from the Rays, Lobstein throws a high-80s fastball, a cutter, a decent curve, and a solid changeup. He's thrown a lot of innings in the high minors, so he has an idea of what he's doing, but he figures to be an emergency starter or long reliever at best. On the 40-man, I expect he'll be up in September.
31 - Joe Jimenez - RHP - (20) - The Tigers signed Jimenez out of Puerto Rico last year, and this year they turned him into a reliever, where he can run his fastball up to 96-97. He also has a promising slider. He could move up the list quite a bit in the next few years, but I think his ceiling is as a setup man.
32 - Joey Pankake -3B/UTIL - (22) - The Tigers took Pankake in the 7th round this year, and he has a solid chance to see the Majors, most likely as a utility man. He can hit, and he projects to have fringe-average power. He played shortstop his first two years in college, and moved to 3rd last year. That's where he's playing now, but he could also probably fill in at 2nd or either OF corner, because he has a very strong arm.
33 - Tyler Gibson - OF - (21) - Toolsy but raw, Gibson has been floating around the low minors for 4 years now, but he finally started showing some signs of life this year. Still a longshot, but if he can put things together, he has the requisite tools to be an everyday player.
34 - Kyle Ryan - LHP - (22) - Not unlike Lobstein, Ryan is a lefty with high-80s velocity who figures to top out as a long-reliever/emergency starter. He also throws a sweepy breaking ball, a cutter, and a changeup, and while he doesn't miss many bats, he has a high leg kick that adds some deception. He's being added to the 40-man, so we may see him in September.
35 - Zach Shepherd - 3B - (19) - Shepherd is an Aussie, and he has shown some real promise in his short pro career, particularly on offense. He shows solid tools across the board, though, and could grow into a prototypical third baseman.
36 - Shane Zeile - C - (21) - The Tigers took Zeile in the 5th round this year, betting on his solid athleticism and bloodlines. His uncle Todd played for a long time, and Shane shows some promise behind the plate defensively, though he's relatively new to the position. He also has the chance to be a solid hitter, but it will probably take a few years for him to develop.
37 - Montreal Robertson - RHP - (24) - Robertson is having his best year, but the statistics still don't match the scouting reports. He flashes a mid-90s fastball, and a decent slider. He has some relief potential, but he's gonna need to start moving soon.
38 - Josh Laxer - RHP - (21) - A college reliever the Tigers took in the 9th round this year, Laxer's fastball has reached 96 in the past and he also throws a solid breaking ball. Command is a concern, but it hasn't been an issue so far in professional ball.
39 - Franklin Navarro - C - (20) - Navarro is showing slow, steady progress as a potential 2-way catcher, but it will be several more years before we really know anything. Being a switch hitter adds more more thing for him to work on.
40 - Julio Martinez - OF/1B - (17) - A complete wild card at this point, the Tigers just spent $600K to sign Martinez out of the D.R. He projects to be an above-average hitter with a chance for plus power. He may one day be a top-10 prospect in the org, but he's obviously years away from that.
Injury Types
Endrys Briceno - RHP - (23) - Blew out his elbow this year. Probably would have been in my top 10.
Jeff Thompson - RHP - (23) - Out since May with an undisclosed injury. Probably would have been in my top 20.
Will Clinard - RHP - (25) - Reliever I thought could help this year, out all season with an undisclosed injury. Probably would have been in my top 20.
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