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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 8, 2014 10:07:52 GMT -5
I'm guessing there won't be a ton of people posting in here, but I selfishly wanted to create this thread to transfer a lot of the big posts I made over at SI. I will, of course, continue to write my long prospect posts here in the future. But first, let's take a look back...
EDIT: I decided to wrap all my posts in Spoilers because they are so damn long, and they make this thread kind of unwieldy.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 8, 2014 10:49:30 GMT -5
So, there was a lot to sift through. People like OneBadMutha were carrying the prospect mantle over at SI long before I did, but I don't feel right grabbing posts from someone else. The earliest list I could find that I wrote was from the end of 2007, so I guess you can consider this my list of the top Tigers prospects for 2008. 2008With a handful of Tiger prospects heading off for winter assignments, I figured it was a good time to do a Tigers top 20 prospects post, a la John Sickels (http://www.minorleagueball.com/). Remember, I’m nowhere close to a scout, and I haven’t seen most of these kids play. I’m just basically going on stats alone, and that can be very deceiving in the minors.
1. Cameron Maybin – OF - 6’4 – 205 – (4/4/87) level: rook,A+,2A,MLB .293 - 76R - 18 2B - 5 3B - 15HR - 55RBI - 54BB - 112K - 30SB - 6SB
We all got a chance to see Maybin this year, and he was just overmatched in the Majors. My main concerns about Maybin are his long swing and his lack of sharp hits. Long swings don’t necessarily equate to failure (look at Ryan Braun) but Maybin needs to get quicker because right now he can’t hit a good fastball. When he did make contact he seemed to hit a lot of weak grounders and popouts. On the plus side, we got a glimpse of his power potential and his great speed was readily apparent. He also appears to have a good eye at the plate and a great attitude. Next year is huge in terms of development, and I expect him to be up with the Tigers for good around July. Grade: A-
2. Rick Porcello – RHP - 6’5 – 195 - (12/27/88)
A tad high for someone who has yet to throw a pitch as a professional? Well, let’s just let Mr. Sickels describe him:
Grade: A-
3. Jair Jurrjens – RHP – 6’1 – 160 – (1/29/86) level: 2A,MLB 10-6, 3.52, 26 starts - 143.1 IP -136H - 11HR - 42BB - 107K
We got to see a decent bit of Jair this year, and the early signs were good. He has a good fastball which he can throw with movement in the low 90s, or ramp up a bit and hit 95. He displayed a very good changeup that tailed away from left-handers, and he has a decent breaking ball, though it certainly isn’t an “out” pitch. The best thing we saw from Jurrjens was his ability to throw strikes and not be intimidated, especially at such a young age. He likely won’t ever be a dominant starter, especially once other teams get full scouting reports on him, bu he projects as a good 4th or 5th starter in the future. Grade: B+
4. Yorman Bazardo – RHP – 6’2 – 220 – (7/11/84) level: 3A,MLB 12-7, 3.54, 34 Games, 23 starts - 160.1 IP - 153H - 10HR - 48BB - 84K
Bazardo is a bit like Jurrjens-lite. He features an above-average changeup, and a decent fastball with movement, though he doesn’t quite have the velocity of Jair. The key to Bazardo’s future is his breaking ball, which looked very flat this year. If he can improve that, he might have a future as a back-end starter; if his breaking ball doesn’t improve then his future is as a poor-man’s Fernando Rodney. Grade: B
5. Gorkys Hernandez – OF – 6’ – 175 – (9/7/87) level: A .293 - 84R - 25 2B - 5 3B - 4HR - 50RBI - 36BB - 69K - 54SB - 11CS
Gorkys won the league MVP award this season, as his West Michigan squad went on to win the Midwest League crown. His speed is no joke, he is said to be a good fielder, and he seems to be a good gap hitter with decent plate discipline. The main thing keeping Hernandez from elite prospect status is his lack of power. The minor leagues are full of speedy guys who are decent hitters, so Gorkys will really have to step up the power numbers, or start contending for batting titles. Unfortunately, his frame doesn’t exactly portend a great power spike, so if he makes the pros it’ll likely be as a Juan Pierre type. Grade: B
6. Eulogio De La Cruz – RHP – 5’11 – 175 – (3/12/84) level: 2A,3A,MLB 7-5, 3.65, 39 games, 12 starts - 111 IP - 105H - 6HR - 41BB - 87K
The Tigers seem to have an inordinate amount of Latino, fastball-changeup pitchers. De La Cruz has the best fastball in terms of velocity, sitting in the mid 90s with the ability to hit 97 or 98, but it has very little movement. He showed a decent change and an average breaking ball. His stuff is good enough to be a decent set-up man in the Bigs, but he seems to lack the innate pitching ability. He is still young though, so there’s still hope. Grade: B-
7. Dallas Trahern – RHP – 6’3 – 190 – (11/29/85) level: 2A,3A 13-6, 3.83, 27 starts - 169 IP - 182H - 12HR - 51BB - 94K - BAA .281
Trahern put together a very good year as a 21-year-old in Erie. He has a good sinker which leads to a lot of ground balls, but like most sinkerballers he isn’t much of a strikeout pitcher. His ERA and command were decent, but he gave up a lot of hits and his BAA was .281. I don’t know much about secondary pitches, but he is still very young and has time to improve. The Tigers are sending him out to Arizona for some fall action, so they obviously think he has potential. Grade: B-
8. Duane Below – LHP – 6’2 – 205 – (11/15/85) level: A 13-5, 2.97, 26 starts - 145.2 IP - 128H - 6HR - 58BB - 160K - BAA .236
The first leftie on this list, Below was voted as the Tigers’ minor league pitcher of the year. He earned it by mowing through the Midwest league, where he finished 4th in starter’s ERA, tied for the most wins, and led the league in strikeouts. Perhaps best of all, he only gave up 3 homers in 145+ innings. Below also showed up in the playoffs, going 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 13.2 innings. He’s a favorite of mine, though I honestly don’t know what kind of stuff he features. His age and low level are the main questions here. Grade: B-
9. James Skelton – C – 5’11 – 165 – (10/28/85) level: A .309 - 60R - 24 2B - 2 3B - 7HR - 52RBI - 55BB - 53K - 18SB - 5CS
The Tigers’ top catching prospect is another favorite of mine, though I have tempered my predictions of him ever being the “catcher of the future.” He’s a smaller guy, so it appears his power potential is limited, but he has good speed as a catcher, he is a very good hitter for average, and he appears to have a great eye at the plate. His numbers in the playoffs were right in line with his regular season numbers, though he was primarily a DH, which makes me wonder about his defensive potential. He had 7 errors this year, but I don’t know how his arm is or how he calls a game. Add in his age at a low level and he is still a big question mark. Grade: C+
10. Charlie Furbush – LHP – 6’5 – 215 – (4/11/86) level: rook,A 6-1, 2.34, 12 games, 10 starts - 61.2 IP - 4HR - 14BB - 69K - .224 BAA
The Tigers’ 4th round pick this year, Furbush entered professional baseball on fire. A tall, projectionable kid, the book on Furbush seems to be that he has electric stuff, with a fastball that tops out at 94 and deceptive secondary pitches, but he lacks poise. His playoff numbers seem the bear that out, because when the pressure was on he melted down, giving up 9 runs in 7.2 playoff innings, including 5 runs in 2 innings in the decisive 5th game of the playoffs. We could be looking at a left-handed Bonderman here, but he is still promising. Grade: C+
11. Jeff Larish – 1B – 6’2 – 200 – (10/11/82) level: 2A .267 - 71R - 25 2B - 2 3B - 28HR - 101RBI - 87BB -108K - 6SB - 2CS
I’m not as high on Larish as a lot of Tiger fans. Yes, he has good left-handed power and he walks a lot, but he also strikes out a ton and his average was rather low for a 24-year-old in double A. His numbers were comparable, though lower across the board, to Carlos Peña’s, but Peña was only 21 in double A. Larish could be a poor-man’s Carlos Peña, which isn’t necessarily bad, but with Guillen now the Tigers’ first baseman of the future, Larish’s future is likely elsewhere. The Tigers are sending him off to the Arizona Fall League, where he is probably auditioning for other teams. Grade: C+
12. Michael Hollimon – 2B – 6’1 – 185 – (6/14/82) level: 2A,3A 132G - .280 - 93R - 35 2B - 9 3B - 14HR - 78RBI - 65BB - 125K - 17SB - 6CS
Hollimon is a very interesting player. He is a switch-hitter with a nice combination of speed and power, especially for a middle infielder. However, he strikes out quite a bit, his defense is a big question mark (20 errors this year), and at 25 he is rather old to be a prospect. He could be the next Ryan Raburn, though he seems to have more offensive potential and less defensive flexibility than Raburn. The Tigers seem to like him though, as they’ve sent him off to Arizona to get some more playing time. Grade: C+
13. Daniel Worth – SS – 6’1 – 180 – (9/30/85) level: A+,2A 56G - .265 - 26R - 11 2B - 3 3B - 2HR - 25RBI - 19BB - 40K - 7SB
Worth, the Tigers’ 2nd round pick this year, is generally regarded as a glove-first shortstop who will never hit more than a handful of homers. He wasn’t a terrible hitter this year, but he doesn’t appear to be anything special either, and his glove betrayed him a bit as he committed 11 errors in just 56 games. I don’t picture him being any better than Tony Giarrantano, but we can hope he picks it up a bit. Grade: C
14. Justin Henry – 2B – 6’3 – 180 – (4/30/85) level: short season A 67G - .340 - 49R - 11 2B - 2 3B - 1HR - 31 RBI - 33BB - 22K - 14SB - 7CS
An intriguing prospect, Henry was clearly too good (and too old) for short-season ball. He knocked the ball all over the park, but his tall, lanky frame doesn’t give him much power. He is speedy and appears to have a great batting eye, and it never hurts to have good left-handed hitters. In the perfect world he’ll add some muscle and start hitting the ball out of the park, but I don’t really see it happening. Grade: C
15. Virgil Vasquez – RHP - 6’3 – 205 – (6/7/82) level: 3A, MLB 12-5, 3.98, 28 starts - 171.2 IP - 166H - 25HR - 38BB - 134K
Vasquez had a very nice year in Toledo, but he is an extreme flyball pitcher whose calling card appears to be giving up the gopher ball (7 bombs in 16.2 MLB innings). He lacks plus pitches, so he’ll likely never be a big league reliever. His future is either as a long-reliever or a career minor leaguer. Grade: C-
16. Wilkin Ramirez – OF - 6’2 – 190 – (10/25/85) level: A+,2A 122G - .257 - 63R - 10 2B - 5 3B - 12HR - 55RBI - 28BB - 124K - 34SB - 8CS
A former 3rd baseman, Wilkin seems to have benefited from a move to the outfield. He flashed some very good speed that was to this point hidden. His power is still lagging a bit, and his plate discipline is horrid, but he’s still only 21 and he brings more speed/power potential than any of the other fringe outfield prospects. Grade: C-
17. Deik Scram – OF – 6’2 – 180 – (2/1/84) level: A,A+ 114G - .311 - 70R - 23 2B - 10 3B - 5HR - 37RBI - 57BB - 83K - 21SB - 8CS
He has one of the best names in all of baseball, but he also is a pretty decent player. A left-handed bat with good speed, good hitting skills, and good plate-discipline, Scram’s bugaboo is the dreaded lack of power. He still may develop some more pop, but his power ceiling will likely always be low. Grade: C-
18. Jordan Tata – RHP – 6’6 – 220 – (9/20/81) level: 3A,MLB 5-6, 3.72, 17 starts - 96.2IP - 83H - 9HR - 36BB - 58K
We’ve seen Tata a bit now for the past few years, and all signs point to him being a career quad-A pitcher. It’s evident that he doesn’t have that one pitch that would make him an effective reliever, and he just doesn’t seem to have the overall stuff to make it as a big league starter. It’s possible that he could be a decent long man, but probably not for Detroit. Grade: C-
19. Burke Badenhop – RHP – 6’5 – 220 – (2/8/83) level: A+,2A 12-6, 2.92, 26 starts - 154 IP - 138H - 6HR - 37BB - 90K - .238 BAA
Big Burke has done nothing but win in the minor leagues. A 19th round pick in 2005, Badenhop handled the Midwest league last year going 14-3 with a 2.84 ERA. This year he did it again in high-A and double A. He features a sinking fastball that tops out at about 90mph. He’s an innings eater with good intangibles, but if he ever makes the big leagues it will probably be because he’s from the same home town as Jim Leyland. Grade: C-
20. Michael Hernandez – OF – 6’ – 175 – (12/18/83) level: A+,2A 134G - .259 - 71R - 27 2B - 4 3B - 24 HR - 106RBI - 45BB - 117K - 2SB - 3CS
Hernandez has shown a good deal of power in the minors, but his average and plate discipline are less than great. I have no idea what kind of fielder he is, but if he’s ever going to make the pros he’ll need to pick up the average. I’m not confident. Grade: C-
21. Scott Sizemore – 2B – 6’ – 185 – (1/4/85) level: A 125G - 78R - 33 2B - 5 3B - 4HR - 48RBI - 73 BB - 60K - 16SB - 10CS
Sizemore had a strange season. In April/May he hit .225/.231, then in June/July he hit .293/.322, only to hit .247 in August. Scott hit plenty of doubles, but he appears to lack the extra pop to turn them into homers. He also has decent speed, but his stolen base success rate was less than stellar. His lone plus skill is his eye at the plate, and it will be interesting to see if he can maintain that discipline in the high minors. Grade: C-
22. Guillermo Moscoso – 6’1 – 165 – (11/14/83) level: SS,A,A+ 8-2, 2.18, 16 starts - 90.2 IP - 82H - 4HR - 16BB - 79K - .241 BAA
Moscoso had a very nice year for Oneonta, but I know very little about him. He appears to be an extreme flyball pitcher, which is always a concern, but he’s a guy to follow. Grade: C-
Others receiving votes: Devin Thomas, C, Ryan Strieby, 1B, Chris Carlson, 1B, Ryan Roberson, 1B, Cale Iorg, SS, Brent Clevlen, OF, Brennan Boesch, OF, Chris White, OF, Jeremy Laster, OF, Casper Wells, OF, Clete Thomas, OF
Jonah Nickerson, RHP, Randor Bierd, RHP, Matt Rusch, RHP, Brett Jensen, RHP, Brandon Hamilton, RHP, Casey Crosby, LHP
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 8, 2014 10:59:18 GMT -5
This one from late in 2008 is just insanely long. I think I just wrote about every single player in their system. Not scouting reports, but some interesting names: Figured I'd get into the mood for some 2009 baseball by taking a look back at who did what in Detroit's minor league system in 2008. And just to be clear, the vast majority of my "analysis" is based purely on numbers. I'm not a scout, and I've only seen a handful of these guys play, so take my MLB comparisons and 2009 assignments with a grain of salt. You’ll see a number in parenthesis, which is basically that player’s age for the majority of the season.
Let's start at the lowest level.
Rookie Level Venezuelan Summer League
The odds of these guys seeing the majors is very slim, but that doesn't mean they don't merit examination.
3B - Francisco Martinez – 9/01/90 (17) – 6’1 – 190 – R/R 68G - .321 – 32R – 4 2B – 1HR – 23RBI – 28BB – 28K – 20SB – 10CS – 27E
The Tigers gave Martinez a $130,000 bonus, so they obviously see something in the young man. He finished fourth in the Venezuelan league in hits, and third in stolen bases, and he showed solid plate discipline. His weaknesses include the fact that he showed almost no pop, with only 5 XBHs in 240+ ABs, and he committed 27 errors at 3rd. Those aren't huge worries at his point though, considering his age and frame. The Tigers system is absolutely barren at 3rd base, leaving Martinez as one of the few players even worth mentioning.
Disclaimer: Predicting where the Latin players end up next year is pure guesswork, because their stats say nothing about their maturity and how ready they are to leave home and come to the U.S.
2009 Team: The safe bet is that he'll be back in the VSL, but of all the Latino kids, I’d say he’s the closest to coming to the Gulf Coast League. MLB ETA: 2014
RF - Avisail Garcia – 6/12/91 (17) – 6’3 – 190 – R/R 63G - .298 – 33R – 12 2B – 2 3B – 7HR – 34RBI – 15BB – 39K – 7SB – 5CS – 8E
Garcia looks like a big, strong kid, which is possibly why Detroit gave him a $200,000 signing bonus. He finished fifth in the league in hits, HRs, and slugging. Those stats don’t mean a whole lot in terms of projection, but we can compare them to the numbers of Alexis Espinoza, who hit for power in the VSL in 2007. Espinoza hit more homers in far fewer at bats, but he also struck out at a much higher rate. Espinoza’s lower percentages hurt him in the GCL, where his numbers went down across the board. Garcia looks to have a bit more discipline, so his chances for stateside success are probably greater than Espinoza’s.
2009 Team: Because he is so young, Garcia may get another shot at the VSL. However, if the Tigers think he’s mature enough to handle it, he may be able to hold his own in the GCL. MLB ETA: 2014
SS - Hernan Perez - 3/26/91 (17) – 6’ – 160 – R/R 68G - .226 – 38R – 8 2B – 4 3B – 1HR – 22RBI – 16BB – 35K – 4SB – 4CS – 22E
His statistics are not worth mentioning. I bring him up because the $237,000 bonus he received was the most the Tigers handed out to a Latin free agent. Still very young, so he’s worth keeping track of.
2009 Team: VSL Tigers MLB ETA: 2014
SP – Josue Carreno – 6/26/91 (17) – 6’1 – 170 – R/R 12G - 12 Starts – 2-4, 2.82 - 54.1 IP - 35H - 2HR - 15BB - 39K - 1.85 G/A - .185 BAA
Carreno’s stats aren’t mind-blowing, but his peripheral numbers merit some notice. The low opponent batting average and the good groundball numbers are nice to see, especially considering his age. No idea about his stuff though.
2009 Team: VSL Tigers MLB ETA: 2014
Rookie Level Dominican Summer League
3B – Elvin Soto – 5/6/89 (19) – 6’2 – 190 – L/R 58G - .231 – 32R – 11 2B – 1 3B – 7HR – 29RBI – 44BB – 53K – 5SB – 1CS – 21E
Elvin looks like he may be the Dominican equivalent of Jack Cust. He hits for a low average and he strikes out frequently, but he also puts up nice power numbers and draws a lot of walks. He was repeating the DSL, and he showed slight improvements in all areas except for line drive percentage. He made quite a few errors, but that sort of thing can be worked out, and the Tigers will likely do whatever they can to encourage the progress of a kid with good size, solid plate discipline, and left-handed pop.
2009 Team: GCL Tigers MLB ETA: 2014
SS - Domingo Gonzales – 3/10/91 (17) – 6’1 – 175 – R/R 52G - .131 – 15R – 4 2B – 2 3B – 2HR – 19RBI – 17BB – 54K – 2 SB – 1CS – 25E
Another guy who only makes the list because the Tigers gave him a $175,000 bonus, Gonzales was clearly brutal in every way. I suspect the Tigers liked his size and athleticism, but I also suspect they want their money back. We’ll see how he performs in his second go-round in the DSL.
2009 Team: DSL Tigers MLB ETA: 2015
SP - Rayni Guichardo – 8/13/91 (16) – 6’1 – 165 – L/L 16G - 13 Starts - 3-5, 3.90 - 62.1 IP - 56H - 2HR – 20BB – 79K – 1.97 G/A - .235 BAA
Guichardo was the second youngest player in the entire league, playing all but two of his games as a 16-year-old. His numbers are very solid when one considers that the competition was often 3-5 years older. Again, there’s no way to know what kind of stuff he has, but a young lefty with good strikeout and groundball numbers is worth watching.
2009 Team: DSL Tigers MLB ETA: 2014
SP - Robert Diaz – 2/12/89 (19) – 6’2 – 180 – L/L 16G – 14 Starts – 3-2, 4.11 - 65.2 IP - 57H - 4HR - 32BB - 90K – 0.79 G/A - .230 BAA
Another lefty starter, Diaz finished 8th in the league in strikeouts. He was repeating the DSL, and he improved across the board, but was victimized by a high BABIP. One concern is a fairly high walk rate and the fact that he hit ten batters, but he’s probably old enough to head to the Gulf Coast League.
2009 Team: GCL Tigers MLB ETA: 2014
SP – Marcos Nunez – 7/10/89 (19) – 6’5 – 210 – R/R 18G – 10 Starts – 4-2, 1.78 - 76 IP – 57H – 1HR – 20BB - 69K – 0.76 G/A - .210 BAA
Nunez is another guy who was repeating in the DSL, and he showed remarkable improvement, dropping his ERA by 5 full runs. Again, no clue if the guy is a soft-tosser, but he has the prototypical pitcher’s body, meaning that he could potentially gain 4-5 mph on his fastball as he fills out his frame.
2009 Team: GCL Tigers MLB ETA: 2014
Note: Carlos Melo would have made this list, but he was part of the package to get Gerald Laird.
Rookie Level Gulf Coast League
Batters
OF – Andy Dirks – 1/24/86 (22) – 6’ – 195 – L/L GCL – 10G - .412 – 10R – 3 2B – 2 3B – 7RBI – 3BB – 6K – 2SB – 0E Lo-A – 3G - .100 – 2RBI - 1BB – 2K – 0E TOT – 13G - .341 – 10R – 3 2B – 2 3B – 9RBI – 4BB – 8K – 2SB – 0E
The first of three players Detroit drafted from Wichita State in 2008 (8th round), Dirks is a scrappy outfielder with good speed and a high motor. He showed decent pop as a college senior, slugging .632 with 11 homers, but he figures to be a gap hitter in professional ball. He broke his hand in his first weekend at West Michigan, but he came back about six weeks later and raked for two weeks in the GCL.
2009 Team: West Michigan Comparison: Clete Thomas MLB ETA: 2012
2B - Alden Carrithers – 11/14/84 (23) – 5’9 – 165 – L/R 39G - .316 – 21R – 5 2B – 1 3B – 2HR – 17RBI – 28BB – 19K – 16SB – 1CS – 0E
The Tigers’ 15th round pick in 2008, Carrithers is another scrappy player whose diminutive stature will always leave him with something to prove. He performed very well in the Gulf Coast League, tying for third in walks, ranking 7th in stolen bases, and leading the league in on base percentage by more than 30 points. His plate discipline was a big plus in a system full of chronic whiffers, but he was going against a rather low level of competition, he is old for a prospect in his first minor league season, and he will likely never hit for much power.
2009 Team: West Michigan Comparison: Jamey Carroll MLB ETA: 2012
SS – Adam Frost – 10/13/86 (21) – 5’11 – 165 – R/R GCL – 32G - .277 - 13R – 8 2B – 2HR – 15RBI – 6BB – 18K – 3SB – 8E Hi-A – 9G - .241 – 6R – 2 2B – 1 3B – 2HR – 4RBI – 2BB – 4K – 1CS – 3E TOT – 41G - .270 – 19R – 10 2B – 1 3B – 4HR – 19RBI – 8BB – 22K – 3SB – 1CS – 11E
Detroit’s 21st pick in 2008, Frost appears to be a bat-first shortstop. He had the 3rd highest batting average in Division III back in 2007 (.471), but he regressed a bit as a junior. His first pro season was fairly unremarkable, but he showed good contact rates and decent extra base power. He actually performed fairly well in a 9-game stint for Lakeland, though he suffered from a very low BABIP (.217). With 11 errors in just 41 games, he clearly needs to work on his fielding, but he is a player to watch going forward.
2009 Team: Oneonta Tigers Comparison: Jeff Keppinger MLB ETA: 2013
OF/2B – Josh Workman – 11/4/85 (22) – 6’1 – 200 – L/R GCL – 18G - .268 – 17R – 1 2B – 1 3B – 2HR – 8RBI – 6BB – 15K – 4SB – 2CS – 0E Hi-A – 7G - .304 – 2R – 2 2B – 1 3B – 4RBI – 2BB – 2K – 0E TOT – 25G - .278 – 19R – 3 2B – 2 3B – 2HR – 12RBI – 8BB – 17K – 4SB – 2CS – 0E
The third Wichita State Shocker drafted by Detroit (after Dirks and catcher Tyler Weber), Workman was a college second baseman who moved to the outfield in the minors. He didn’t do anything terribly well, and he missed a month’s worth of games during July and August. It appears that his speed used to be a plus tool -- he went 35/38 on steals as a redshirt freshman back in 2006 – but that seems to have left him.
2009 Team: Oneonta Tigers Comparison: Deik Scram MLB ETA: 2013
RF – Alexis Espinoza – 12/20/88 (19) – 6’1 – 180 – R/R 39G - .266 – 14R – 6 2B – 3HR – 11RBI – 2BB – 33K – 7SB – 1 CS – 2E
I compared Espinoza to Avisail Garcia earlier, but now we get to look at him in more detail. He led the Venezuela Summer League in HRs in 2007, but he also struck out a lot, and walked very little. Unfortunately, the high strikeouts and low walks followed him to the states, while the power did not. His high K rate, low walk rate, and low line drive percentage indicate that he will continue to struggle moving forward, but he is still young enough to improve.
2009 Team: GCL Tigers MLB ETA: 2014
CF – Luis Salas – 1/2/89 (19) – 6’ – 172 - R/R GCL – 45G - .253 – 17R – 8 2B – 1 3B – 4HR – 11RBI – 16BB – 58K – 4SB – 1CS – 1E Hi-A – 6G - .267 – 1 2B – 1 3B – 4RBI – 4BB – 5K – 1SB – 1CS TOT – 51G - .253 – 17R – 9 2B – 2 3B – 4HR – 15RBI – 20BB – 63K – 5SB – 2CS – 1E
Nothing about Salas’ stats or stature really standout, but he nevertheless makes the list because his season began with a six-game stint in Lakeland as a 19-year-old kid right out of Venezuela. That indicates that the Tigers like his maturity and perhaps see some tools that aren’t readily apparent when looking at his stats. As is the case with most players in the system, Salas will need to work on his plate discipline going forward, as his 58 Ks ranked second in the GCL.
2009 Team: GCL Tigers MLB ETA: 2013
SS – Luis Palacios - 7/7/89 (19) - 5’10 - 162 -R/R 43G - .243 – 15R – 13 2B – 3HR – 17RBI – 12BB – 37K – 4E
On the surface, Palacios doesn’t appear to be anything special. His batting average was rather low due to an elevated strikeout rate, but only committing 4 errors as short is pretty impressive for such a young guy, and his 13 doubles ranked 8th among the players in the GCL. He certainly seems like one to watch.
2009 Team: GCL Tigers MLB ETA: 2013
RF – Chao-Ting Tang – 10/12/87 (20) – 5’11 – 176 – L/R 38G - .222 – 13R – 7 2B – 2 3B – 1HR – 15RBI – 9BB - 29K – 3SB – 1CS – 3E
Aside from having a name that makes anyone who says it sound like a racist, this kid is also said to have some really solid tools. And he seems to like being in the Detroit organization: WRETCH Photo Album - tingi99album. He didn’t perform terribly well, but he’s worth keeping an eye on if for no other reason than being the Tigers’ first Taiwanese player.
2009 Team: GCL Tigers MLB ETA: 2013
3B – Brett Anderson – 9/3/90 (17) – 6’3 – 185 – R/R 39G - .178 – 7R – 3 2B – 6RBI – 3BB – 32K – 2CS – 18E
Detroit’s 12th round pick in 2008, Anderson was obviously overwhelmed by every facet of professional baseball. Still, he played all of his games as a 17-year-old, and he has good size. The hope is that he has the makeup up to shake off his brutal season, and the skills to improve.
2009 Team: GCL Tigers MLB ETA: 2014
Pitchers
SP – Luis Sanz – 11/19/87 (20) – 6’1 – 173 – R/R 11G - 9 Starts - 5-3, 3.66 - 51.2 IP – 41H – 4HR – 19BB – 48K – 1.74 G/A - .233 BAA
Oddly enough, the Tigers system is home to two players named Luis Sanz. One is a 17-year-old first baseman in Venezuela, the other is this guy, whose second consecutive year in the GCL yielded marginal improvements. He posted decent peripheral numbers, but nothing really exciting. He managed to hit 9 batters in just over 50 innings, which either indicates poor control or wicked movement on his pitches. It’s probably safe to assume it’s the former.
2009 Team: Oneonta Tigers MLB ETA: 2013
SP – Jade Todd – 3/22/90 (18) – 6’2 – 190 – L/L 12G - 5 Starts - 3-1, 2.34 - 42.1 IP - 35H - 2HR - 18BB - 48K - 1.03 G/A - .226 BAA
Detroit’s 7th rounder from 2008, Todd is a very promising young lefthander. He throws his fastball at 88-91mph, and his size means he may add some velocity. He also has a quality 12/6 curve and an average change. The Tigers may push him to West Michigan next year, but he is more likely to join the staff at Oneonta. A solid athlete who was also a power hitting first baseman in high school, Todd was pulled away from a commitment to play for Alabama.
2009 Team: Oneonta Tigers Comparison: Nate Robertson MLB ETA: 2013
SP – Brandon Hamilton – 12/25/88 (19) – 6’3 – 220 – R/R
GCL - 9G - 7 Starts - 5-1, 1.86 - 38.2 IP - 27H - 1HR - 13BB - 42K - 1.18 G/A - .186 BAA Lo-A – 8G - 6 Starts - 0-5, 5.01 - 32.1 IP - 34H - 2HR - 28BB - 22K - 0.89 G/A - .286 BAA
Detroit’s supplemental 1st round pick in 2007, Hamilton possesses one of the most promising arms in the system. However, he didn’t put that arm to great use last season, posting brutal numbers in the Midwest League where he was seemingly unable to find the strike zone and he surrendered too many hits. But after being demoted to the Gulf Coast League, he was practically unhittable. He has a low-to-mid 90s fastball, and a nasty curveball with enough potential to be a Big League out pitch, but he obviously needs to work on his control.
2009 Team: West Michigan Comparison: His size, fastball, and plus breaking pitch draw comparisons to Jeremy Bonderman. MLB ETA: 2013
RP – Nick Cassavechia – 12/18/85 (22) – 6’ – 185 – R/R GCL - 20G - 2-1, 0.99 - 9SV - 27.1 IP - 19H - 6BB - 32K - 2.33 G/A - .192 BAA NYP – 3G - 0-1, 3.60 – 5 IP – 5H – 3BB – 8K – 1.33 G/A - .263 TOT - 23G - 2-2, 1.39 - 9SV - 32.1 IP - 24H - 0HR - 9BB - 40K - 2.17 G/A - .203 BAA
Detroit’s 37th round pick in 2008, Cassavechia could be a situation reliever in the bigs one day. He pitches from a sidearm angle and gets excellent movement on his pitches. His fastball touches 92 and he works his slider to both sides of the plate. His nine saves were good for 2nd place in the league. His strikeout and groundball numbers are rather promising, though his age and the probable lack of experience opposing batters had against sidearmers must be taken into consideration.
2009 Team: West Michigan Comparison: Chad Bradford MLB ETA: 2012
RP – Robert Waite – 1/9/07 (21) – 6’3 – 210 – R/R 17G - 1-3, 4.67 - 2SV - 27 IP - 27H - 1HR - 12BB - 25K - 1.84 G/A - .252 BAA
Detroit’s 17th round pick in 2008, Waite was one of many college relievers the Tigers drafted. His ERA was elevated in college, and that problem followed him to professional baseball. His strikeout and groundball numbers are solid, but the hits and the walks need to come down or he won’t ever amount to much.
2009 Team: Oneonta Tigers MLB ETA: 2013
RP – Eric Broberg – 12/25/87 (20) – 6’3 – 225 – R/R 9G – 1-1, 4.32 – 8.1 IP – 7H – 1HR – 6BB – 11K – 1.14 G/A - .226
The latest of any of Detroit’s draft choices (41st round) to sign, Broberg didn’t do anything special, but he’s young and big, and is worth keeping an eye on.
2009 Team: GCL Tigers MLB ETA: 2013
SP - Casey Crosby – 9/17/88 (19) – 6’5 – 200 – R/L 3G - 3 Starts – 0-0, 0.00 – 4.2 IP – 4H – 3BB – 2K – 2.67 ERA - .211 BAA
Those stats are nothing to get excited about, but remember that Crosby is coming off Tommy John surgery back in November ‘07, and getting back on the mound in August ’08 is a tremendous accomplishment in and of itself. Here is something to get excited about: 95 and 97. As in, Crosby, as a rangy left-hander, pitches comfortably at 95, and touches 97. Simply put, Crosby’s ceiling is higher than anyone in the system outside of Porcello. His secondary pitches are a work in progress, and obviously he hasn’t faced much professional competition yet, but he has rare talent.
2009 Team: GCL Tigers Comparison: Could be a Matt Thornton-type power reliever, or he could develop in another Andrew Miller. MLB ETA: 2014
Batters
2B - Mike Gosse – 5/30/86 (22) – 5’7 – 165 – L/R 63G - .277 – 27R – 9 2B – 2 3B – 1HR – 35RBI – 16BB – 17K – 1SB – 3CS – 12E
Gosse was the Tigers 23rd round pick in 2008 and he looks like a classic second-sacker. As such, he had a completely unremarkable season, though his run production and plate discipline seem fairly solid.
2009 Team: West Michigan Comparison: Joe Inglett MLB ETA: 2013
SS – Brandon Douglas – 8/27/85 (22) – 6’ – 185 – R/R GCL - 7G - .333 – 7R – 2 2B – 1HR – 5RBI – 3BB – 2K – 3SB – 2E NYP - 47G - .312 – 33R – 5 2B – 3 3B – 1HR – 12RBI – 10BB – 19K – 13SB – 1CS – 21E Lo-A - 9G - .436 – 5R – 3 2B – 1HR – 8RBI – 1BB – 2K - 1E AA – 5G - .263 – 2R – 1HR – 2 RBI – 2K – 1SB – 1CS - 1 E TOT - 68G - .328 - 47R - 10 2B - 5 3B - 4HR - 27RBI - 14BB - 25K - 17SB - 2CS - 25E
Douglas was Detroit’s 11th rounder in 2008, and he had the best debut of any offensive player they drafted, making it all the way to AA in just over 60 games. The errors are obviously a concern, and he played the majority of his games as a 22-year-old, but he smacked the ball around just about everywhere he went. He’s a good candidate for a bump up to Lakeland in 2009, though he may need to permanently slide over to 2B.
2009 Team: Lakeland Comparison: Ryan Theriot MLB ETA: 2011
OF/SS – Brent Wyatt – 1/25/85 (23) – 5’10 – 185 – S/R 55G - .305 – 25R – 11 2B – 3 3B – 14RBI – 25BB – 41K – 5SB – 4CS – 7E
Wyatt was Detroit’s 26th rounder in 2008, and he looks like a utility player at best. He played 30 games in the outfield and the rest as a SS. He finished 2nd in the league in on-base percentage (.403), but he shows no real signs of power or speed.
2009 Team: West Michigan Comparison: A poor man’s Chris Burke MLB ETA: 2013
OF - Ben Guez – 1/24/87 (21) – 5’10 – 170 – R/R 70G - .223 – 43R – 14 2B – 4 3B – 5HR – 33BB – 57K – 16SB – 5CS – 4E
Guez is another guy worth watching. His average is low due to a BABIP that is not consistent with his groundball and line drive rate, he flashed good extra-base pop, and he showed good speed, finishing 7th in the league in steals. His strikeout numbers were high, but not astronomical, and his walk numbers are nice. No word on his arm strength, but he looks like he could develop into a possible CF/LF.
2009 Team: West Michigan Comparison: Right-handed Clete Thomas MLB ETA: 2012
OF - Christopher White - 11/12/87 (20) – 5’11 – 170 – S/R NYP – 31G - .230 – 12R – 2 2B – 2 3B – 11RBI – 12BB – 17K – 6SB – 1CS – 3E Lo-A – 23G - .284 – 11R – 8 2B – 2HR – 5RBI – 5BB – 13K – 5SB – 0E TOT – 54G - .253 – 23R – 10 2B – 2 3B – 2HR – 17BB – 30K – 11SB – 1CS – 3E
White was the Tigers 12th round pick in 2007, coming out of Sacramento Community College in California. He was named the MVP of the GCL Tigers in ’07, and he basically repeated his performance at a higher level in 2008. He doesn’t appear to be much more than a slap hitter, but he’s done well for himself so far, and the Tigers will probably give him the opportunity to advance.
2009 Team: West Michigan MLB ETA: 2013
Pitchers
SP – Trevor Feeney – 6/4/86 (22) – 6’1 – 185 – R/R 15G – 13 Starts – 3-6, 3.25 – 72 IP – 69H – 3HR – 21BB – 64K – 0.82 G/A - .244 BAA
A 31st round pick in 2008, Feeney is a college pitcher who has four pitches, but none of them rank as above average offerings. He pitched fairly well, but nothing about him screams future success at higher levels.
2009 Team: West Michigan MLB ETA: 2013
SP - Matt Hoffman – 11/18/88 (19) – 6’2 – 195 – L/L NYP - 12G - 10 Starts - 3-5, 3.05 - 56 IP - 49H - 1HR - 24BB - 44K - 1.57 G/A - .237 BAA Lo-A - 5G - 2 Starts - 0-2, 4.60 - 15.2 IP - 19H - 1HR - 14BB - 20K - 1.89 G/A - .284 BAA TOT - 17G - 12 Starts - 3-7, 3.39 - 71.2 IP - 68H - 2HR - 38BB - 64K - 1.62 G/A - .248 BAA
The Tigers went over the MLB slot recommendation in 2007 to sign Hoffman in the 26th for $175,000. He throws his fastball in the 91-92 range, he features a curve that he commands well, and a change that apparently has the potential to be a plus pitch for him. He struggled a bit in the Midwest league, where he was victimized by an abnormally high BABIP (.391), but got back on track in Oneonta. His combination of decent K numbers and a good groundball ratio make him one to keep an eye on, and some scouts get visions of Andy Pettitte when they watch him pitch.
2009 Team: West Michigan Comparison: see above MLB ETA: 2013
SP – Darwin De Leon – 9/15/88 (19) – 6’ – 150 – L/L 13G – 12 Starts – 6-3, 4.20 – 55.2 IP – 48H – 2HR – 30BB – 42K – 1.19 G/A - .233 BAA
He followed his ridiculous 2007 DSL campaign (9-0, 0.76 ERA) with a pretty average turn in Oneonta. He’s paper thin, but as always, lefties are worth watching just because.
2009 Team: Oneonta MLB ETA: 2014
RP - Anthony Shawler – 5/16/87 (21) – 6’3 – 188 – R/R 22G - 1 Start - 2-3, 1.76 ERA - 3SV - 51 IP - 34H - 0HR - 18BB - 54K - 1.20 G/A - .180 BAA
Shawler had one of the more promising debuts of all of Detroit’s 2008 draftees, posting solid numbers across the board as reliever. At some point I think he gets moved back to the rotation, which is where he pitched at Old Dominion, though maybe they are able to squeeze a little extra velocity out of him as a reliever. As it stands, he throws a cutting fastball at about 91-92 and offers a changeup in the mid-80s. His money pitch, however, is a nasty hammer curve that he drops on hitters at about 73mph. It gets him plenty of swings and misses: He once recorded 18 strikeouts in a single game at Old Dominion, besting Justin Verlander’s personal mark by one.
2009 Team: West Michigan Comparison: If he can manage to gain velocity as he fills out, he could turn into Gil Meche MLB ETA: 2012
RP – Daniel DeLucia – 6/1/85 (23) – 6’4 – 220 – L/L 15G - 3 Starts - 2-2, 1.95 - 1SV – 37 IP – 31H – 1HR – 13BB – 32K – 1.11 G/A - .220 BAA
The Tigers’ 35th rounder in 2008, DeLucia is a Buckeye and he’s already had TJ surgery. We probably shouldn’t expect much, but he’s big and maybe he has a future as a lefty specialist.
2009 Team: West Michigan Comparison: Bobby Seay MLB ETA: 2012
RP - Aaron Fuhrman – 4/2/88 (20) – 6’ – 185 – L/L NYP - 12G - 1 Start - 3-3, 4.17 - 1SV - 36.2 IP - 36H - 2HR - 12BB - 42K - 0.74 G/A - .252 BAA Lo-A – 3G – 2 Starts – 0-1, 4.22 – 10.2 IP – 18H – 1HR – 3BB – 11K – 0.91 G/A - .367 BAA TOT – 15G – 3 Starts – 3-4, 4.18 – 47.1 IP – 54H – 3HR – 15BB – 53K – 0.78 G/A - .281 BAA
Fuhrman made some strides as compared to his 2007 season in the Gulf Coast League, eventually earning a promotion to West Michigan. The only thing I can determine about his stuff is that a Tiger's scout thought he has a nice breaking ball, and judging by his website, he certainly appears to be a gamer.
2009 Team: West Michigan Comparison: Mike Maroth MLB ETA: 2013
RP - Tyler Conn – 11/09/85 (22) – 6’1 – 180 – L/L 17G – 0-0, 3.27 – 1SV – 22 IP – 19H – 0HR – 12BB – 18K – 1.76 G/A - .241 BAA
Conn doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he throws a 2-seam fastball in the low-90s and combines it with a circle-change that serves as his out pitch. With that kind of arsenal, he’s going to have to pitch with much better command than he showed in Oneonta. There’s a pretty lame video of him throwing changeups here.
2009 Team: West Michigan Comparison: A much smaller Brian Fuentes. MLB ETA: 2013
RP - Lester Oliveros – 5/28/88 (20) – 5’11 – 178 – R/R NYP – 15G – 1-2, 1.74 – 4SV – 20.2 IP – 15H – 1HR – 6BB – 34K – 0.73 G/A - .197 BAA Hi-A – 5G – 1-1, 4.22 – 10.2 IP – 12H – 0HR – 9BB - 3K – 0.60 G/A - .293 BAA TOT – 20G – 2-3, 2.59 – 4SV – 31.1 IP – 27H – 1HR – 15BB – 37K – 0.67 G/A - .231 BAA
Oliveros made his U.S debut in 2008 after pitching very well in Venezuela in 2007. The Tigers like this kid because of his combination of stuff, a fastball in the low-to-mid 90s with late movement and a slider with plus potential, and a feisty mound demeanor that screams future closer. He pitched very well in Oneonta, and the Tigers thought enough of his makeup to bump him all the way to Lakeland. Unfortunately he lost his control in Hi-A, but he’s definitely one to watch this season.
2009 Team: West Michigan Comparison: Freddy Dolsi MLB ETA: 2012
RP - Tyler Stohr – 9/19/86 (21) – 6’2 – 210 – L/R 21G – 0-1, 3.98 – 12SV – 20.1 IP – 17H – 0HR – 15BB – 24K – 0.75 G/A - .224 BAA
In the first 6 rounds of the 2008 draft, the Tigers took 5 hard-throwing relievers and one Catcher. Stohr was the final reliever of that bunch, going in the 6th round out of the University of North Florida. Storh has an arsenal befitting his role as a former starter, with a fastball in the low-to-mid 90s with movement, a changeup with solid sink, and the potential for an average slider. He has a goofball delivery that contributes to both his good K numbers and his awful BB numbers. Unless he alters his windup, he will likely continue to struggle with command.
2009 Team: West Michigan Comparison: Masahide Kobayashi MLB ETA: 2012
SP - Luke Putkonen – 5/10/86 (22) – 6’6 – 200 – R/R 6G – 6 Starts – 2-1, 3.65 – 24.2 IP – 24H – 1HR – 8BB – 17K – 3.08 G/A - .270 BAA
Putkonen was Detroit’s 3rd round pick in 2007 out of UNC. He had TJ surgery back in 2005 and has pitched very little as a pro due to offseason shoulder surgery. He throws his fastball with decent velocity (90-94) but little movement, he has a below average slider with potential, and his curve and change are also below average pitches. He may eventually develop into a middle reliever, but he has to work on his breaking stuff
2009 Team: Oneonta Comparison: Ryan Madson MLB ETA: 2013
Low A-Ball West Michigan Whitecaps
Batters
C - Alex Avila – 1/29/87 (21) – 5’11 – 210 – L/R 58G - .305 – 21R – 14 2B – 1HR – 22RBI – 27BB – 41K – 1CS – 3E
Detroit’s 5th round pick in 2008, Avila is the son of the Tigers’ assistant GM Al Avila. This isn’t a case of nepotism however, because by all accounts Alex can play. Considered a bat-first Catcher, Avila didn’t show the sort of pop many had hoped, even when taking the pitcher-friendly Midwest League parks into account. He showed a decent eye at the plate, but he never hit for a high average in college and a high BABIP in West Michigan is probably not sustainable. He was invited to Spring Training, and he’ll likely stay in Lakeland for the rest of the season.
2009 Team: Lakeland Comparison: Mike Rabelo MLB ETA: 2012
2B - Justin Henry – 4/30/85 (23) – 6’3 – 180 – L/R 120G - .295 – 74R – 24 2B – 2 3B – 1HR – 46RBI – 44BB – 36K – 27SB – 7CS - 19E
Henry is one of the very few players in the organization who walks more than he whiffs. He’s a slap hitter at best, showing very little power despite his ample frame. His size may actually be a hindrance to his defense, as his 19 errors is rather excessive for a second sacker. He possesses good speed, a good eye, and solid contact skills, but if he makes it to the majors it will probably be as a back-of-the-order hitter.
2009 Team: Lakeland Comparison: A poor-man’s Luis Castillo MLB ETA: 2012
SS - Audy Ciriaco – 6/16/87 (21) – 6’3 – 195 – R/R 107G - .240 – 47R – 12 2B – 5 3B – 7HR – 50RBI – 16BB – 68K – 12SB – 6CS - 41E
Ciriaco has some of the best raw tools in the entire system, flashing power, speed, and a strong arm. Unfortunately, he has yet to translate that ability into skill. He was repeating in West Michigan, yet his numbers were only marginally better, and his defense was brutal – he committed 41 errors. The Tigers will likely give his talent as long as possible to emerge, but don’t be surprised if he gets moved from SS if he can’t get his glove in order.
2009 Team: Lakeland Comparison: Has the tools of Alexi Ramirez MLB ETA: 2013
3B - Roger Tomas – 4/17/86 (22) - 5’8 – 185 – S/R 58G - .310 – 28R – 1 2B – 2 3B – 1HR – 20RBI – 17BB – 32K – 6SB – 4CS - 6E
Tiny Tomas doesn’t really merit mention…but we’re tying to be comprehensive over here, and he did have a decent year. His lack of power is almost laughable, as he managed just 4 XBHs in 58 games. You can’t be a 3rd baseman with numbers like that.
2009 Team: Lakeland Comparison: Ramon Santiago MLB ETA: 2013
OF - Kyle Peter – 2/04/86 (22) – 6’2 – 185 – L/R 103G - .263 – 64R – 11 2B – 1 3B – 0HR – 57BB – 80K – 42SB – 12CS - 4E
Peter was drafted in the 34th round in 2007, and in terms of skills, he is a lot like Justin Henry. Both are slap hitters with good speed, a decent batting eye, and no power to speak of (Peter “slugged” .295 last year). Peter probably has a better chance to develop into a leadoff hitter, though, because his walk rate is much higher.
2009 Team: Lakeland Comparison: Scott Podsednik MLB ETA: 2012
OF - Kody Kaiser – 4/06/85 (23) – 5’9 – 185 – S/L 110G - .260 – 55R – 24 2B – 6 3B – 11HR – 57RBI – 45BB – 114K – 30SB – 6CS - 6E
Kaiser is switch-hitter who handles right-handed pitching much better than left (.885/.727), but he remains one of the better prospects in the system in terms of a power/speed combo. Unfortunately, much like the system’s other power/speed guys, Kaiser has a problem with strikeouts. He does walk a decent amount though, and if enough of those doubles start clearing the fence as he advances, he may be one to watch.
2009 Team: Lakeland Comparison: Cody Ross MLB ETA: 2012
OF - Jordan Newton – 8/29/85 (22) – 5’10 – 195 – R/R 95G - .267 - 48R - 21 2B - 10 3B – 7HR – 48RBI – 20BB – 97K – 8SB – 2CS - 9E
Newton is basically a poor man’s Kody Kaiser, possessing neither the speed nor the power of his teammate. Newton’s batting eye is also suspect, but his gap power is worth nothing, as he tied for 4th in triples.
2009 Team: Lakeland Comparison: So Taguchi MLB ETA: 2013
Pitchers
SP - Jon Kibler – 8/10/86 (21) – 6’5 – 210 – L/L 23G – 23 Starts – 14-5, 1.75 - 154.1 IP – 103H – 4HR – 32BB – 126K – 1.87 G/A - .190 BAA
An MSU grad, The Kibler went nuts in 2008, racking up ridiculous numbers and finishing as the Tiger’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year. He led the Midwest league in Wins, ERA, and WHIP, and finished 3rd in IP, and 9th in strikeouts. Before we go crazy though, it should be pointed out that the 3rd guarantee in life is that college lefties with polished changeups will succeed in A-ball, especially in West Michigan (See Below, Duane). Like Below, Kibler is a soft-tosser who rarely hits 90, and relies instead on his cutter and changeup, and like Below, Kibler will almost certainly struggle to stay successful at Lakeland. The Tigers did invite him to Spring Training, so perhaps they see his success as more than a fluke.
2009 Team: Lakeland Comparison: A tall Mike Maroth MLB ETA: 2012
SP - Alfredo Figaro – 7/07/84 (24) – 6’ – 175 – R/R Lo-A - 19G - 19 Starts - 12-2, 2.05 - 123 IP - 99H - 0HR - 30BB - 96K - 1.62 G/A - .218 BAA Hi-A - 6G - 5 Starts - 0-5, 4.91 – 29.1 IP - 37H - 2HR - 12BB - 23K - 1.14 G/A - .311 BAA TOT - 25G - 24 Starts - 12-7, 2.60 - 152.1 IP - 136H - 2HR - 42BB - 119K - 1.52 G/A - .237 BAA
Figaro absolutely tore up the Midwest League, finishing 3rd in the league in Wins, 3rd in ERA, and 5th in WHIP, despite spending his final six games in Lakeland. According to Al Avila, Figaro has a lively fastball in the mid-90s, a good curveball, and a decent changeup. They also say he needs to work on his command, which may explain why he got shelled in Lakeland. It remains to seen if the Tigers can turn this live arm into a quality pitcher.
2009 Team: Lakeland Comparison: Fernando Rodney MLB ETA: 2012
SP - Thad Weber – 9/28/84 (23) – 6’2 – 200 – R/R GCL – 2G – 1 Start – 0-0, 0.00 - 4 IP - 1H – 0BB – 9K – 3.00 G/A - .077 BAA Lo-A - 11G - 11 Starts - 1-4, 2.56 - 56.1 IP - 46H - 3HR - 11BB - 49K - 0.97 G/A - .219 BAA TOT - 13G - 12 Starts - 1-4, 2.39 - 60.1 IP - 47H - 3HR - 11BB - 58K - 1.02 G/A - .211 BAA
Weber was drafted in the 16th round out of Nebraska where he was a starter. He was a starter in the minors as well, using a fastball in the mid-90s and a sharp slider to overpower much younger hitters, but his future is likely in the bullpen. He’s old for the levels at which he pitched, and if he continues to start, his tendency to give up hits will likely hurt him at higher levels.
2009 Team: Lakeland Comparison: Jeremy Bonderman MLB ETA: 2012
P - Mauricio Robles – 3/05/89 (19) – 5’10 – 160 – L/L 23G – 16 Starts – 5-3, 2.66 – 91.1 IP – 54H – 2HR – 54BB – 79K – 0.59 G/A - .176 BAA
Very interesting young arm here. Again, I have no clue about his stuff, so his dominance could merely be the result of having a funky lefty delivery. The walks are rather high, and he appears to be an extreme flyball pitcher, but at only 19, there is time for him to hone his control.
2009 Team: West Michigan MLB ETA: 2013
RP - Noah Krol – 6/06/84 (24) – 6’2 – 185 – S/R 47G – 4-3, 3.93 – 15SV – 50.1 IP – 39H – 2HR – 28BB – 49K – 1.82 G/A - .214 BAA
Krol served as West Michigan’s closer in 2008, finishing 4th in the league in saves, though his arsenal is likely more conducive to being a set-up man or middle reliever. His fastball sits at about 90 with good sink, and has a very sharp slider that he uses as his out pitch. His control could use some work, but he should remain fairly effective in Lakeland.
2009 Team: Lakeland Comparison: Aquilino Lopez MLB ETA: 2012
RP - Rudy Darrow – 2/11/84 (24) – 5’10 – 180 – R/R Lo-A – 33G – 4-2, 1.85 – 4SV – 48.2 IP – 39H – 1HR – 15BB – 43K – 4.94 G/A - .213 BAA AA – 14G – 1-1, 2.63 – 6SV – 13.2 IP – 13H – 0HR – 8BB – 14K – 4.40 G/A - .241 BAA TOT – 47G – 5-3, 2.02 – 10SV – 62.1 IP – 52H – 1HR – 23BB – 57K – 4.82 G/A - .219 BAA
AFL – 11G – 1-0, 2.92 – 4SV – 12.1 IP – 11H – 0HR – 5BB – 18K – 5.00 G/A - .239 BAA
Darrow made more of a move than just about anybody in the system last season. He was dominant in West Michigan, but his numbers were remarkably similar in Erie and out in the Arizona Fall League. He’s a sidearmer with a fastball in the low-to-mid 90s, a slider, and a change that he uses to compile nice K numbers and ridiculous groundball numbers. He has a great shot to either break camp with the big club, or receive a mid-season call-up.
2009 Team: Toledo Comparison: Pat Neshek MLB ETA: 2010
RP - Brett Jacobson – 11/09/86 (21) – 6’6 – 205 – R/R 21G - 2-2, 1.52 – 1SV – 29.2 IP – 26H – 0HR – 5BB – 31K – 1.62 G/A - .236 BAA
Detroit’s 4th round pick in 2008, Jacobson runs his fastball into the mid-90s and offers a curve and a changeup that both have the potential to be average major league offerings. Though he has the arsenal and potential to be a back-end starter, the Tigers think he has the upside of a potential setup man as a reliever. He had a great pro debut, and the Tigers will likely have him on the fast-track if his success continues in Lakeland.
2009 Team: Lakeland Comparison: Scot Shields MLB ETA: 2011
RP - Scott Green – 8/10/85 (23) – 6’7 – 240 – R/R 15G – 1-2, 3.57 – 2SV – 17.2 IP – 14H – 1HR – 5BB – 15K – 1.38 G/A - .219
Green was the 3rd round pick in 2008, and like Jacobson, he is a former starter who moved into the bullpen because it allowed him to throw with more velocity. He throws in the low-to-mid 90s, but his pitches have more movement in the high-80s, and e has a good but inconsistent slider. The sample size for 2008 was very small, but he pitched reasonably well and will likely move up a level.
2009 Team: Lakeland Comparison: Franklyn German MLB ETA: 2012
Hi-A Ball Lakeland Flying Tigers
Batters
Ahhh, Lakeland…home to the Tiger’s Spring Training, and site of the best collection of talent in their system last season. A note of caution though, moving from high-A to double-A is considered the most difficult jump in the minors.
1B - Ryan Strieby – 8/09/85 (22) – 6’5 – 235 – R/R 112G – 65R – 19 2B – 7 3B – 29HR – 94RBI – 46BB – 101K – 1CS - 7E
Detroit’s 4th rounder in 2006, Strieby busted out in a big way last year, leading the Florida State League in homers and RBI, despite missing the final three weeks of the season with a foot injury. The power numbers and run production were enough to earn him organizational Player of the Year honors. He’s a huge kid, and as typical for a slugger, he strikes out fairly frequently. However, his whiffs aren’t exorbitant, and he drew about half as many walks as strikeouts, which is perfectly acceptable for a slugger. Double-A will be a big test for him, but if he holds his own, the Tigers may be forced to find a spot for him in their lineup as soon as 2010.
2009 Team: Erie Comparison: Shelley Duncan MLB ETA: 2011
2B - Scott Sizemore – 1/04/85 (23) – 6’ – 185 – R/R 53G - .286 – 32R – 11 2B – 1 3B – 4HR – 20RBI – 24BB – 44K – 14SB – 3CS – 8E
Sizemore lost more than 60 games to injury last year, and as a result he was never really able to settle into a nice groove. When he’s on, he has proven to be a quality gap-hitter with a decent batting eye and passable speed. And even though he only managed 50 games in Lakeland, his age (now 24) and the fact that he was invited to Spring Training suggest that he’s headed for Erie. If all goes well, he’s in line to take over for Polanco in a few years.
2009 Team: Erie Comparison: Martin Prado MLB ETA: 2011
SS - Cale Iorg – 9/06/85 (22) – 6’2 – 190 – R/R 99G - .251 – 61R – 15 2B – 7 3B – 10HR – 47RBI – 35BB – 111K – 22SB – 11CS - 18E
Iorg is probably the most athletic player in the entire system, and the Tigers were ecstatic to get him in the 6th round back in 2007. He comes from a baseball family, as his father and uncle played in the bigs, and his brother is in the Astros system. Dombrowski was recently quoted as saying that Iorg was going to be a superstar “soon,” but there are some troubling signs that point otherwise. Yes, he has a great blend of speed, power, and defensive skills, but his plate discipline was severely lacking, and he needs to work on his baserunning to get more successful on his steal attempts. He was out of baseball for two years, so the hope is that he’ll get a better command of the plate with more at bats, but it’s rare for a guy to improve that aspect of his game as he advances. The potential is definitely there, and the Tigers did invite him to Spring Training, but I’m just a little skeptical that he will ever be a big league regular.
2009 Team: Erie Comparison: Clint Barmes MLB ETA: 2011
3B - Michael Bertram – 2/25/84 (24) – 6’2 – 220 – L/R 102G - .285 – 51R – 21 2B – 4 3B – 8HR – 55RBI – 27BB – 69K – 2SB – 2CS - 12E
I mentioned way back in the VSL recap that 3rd base is very thin, and Bertram is another example of this. He is a decent player, but entirely average in every way. He split time at 3rd with Santo De Leon, though Bertram had a better defensive year. One encouraging sign is that he has gotten better each year in the minors, so he may be a late-bloomer.
2009 Team: Erie Comparison: Jack Hannahan MLB ETA: 2012
3B - Santo De Leon - 11/01/83 (24) - 6’2 - 175 - R/R Hi-A – 46G - .291 – 19R – 11 2B – 4HR – 18RBI – 4BB – 30K – 2SB – 8E AA – 44G - .278 – 25R – 11 2B – 1 3B - 7HR – 25RBI – 7BB – 27K – 1SB – 1CS – 10E TOT – 90G - .284 – 44R – 22 2B – 1 3B - 11HR – 43RBI – 11BB – 57K – 3SB – 1CS - 18E
De Leon is basically a slightly older, significantly more Latino version of Bertram. They both seem to make consistent contact, hit for a decent average, and possess some extra base power, but he almost never draws a walk (24 BB in 199 games the last two seasons). His glove is questionable, committing 18 errors last year, but in 2007 he led all Midwest League third basemen in fielding percentage (.929) and assists (190). He’s an interesting player, but I suspect his tendency to swing at everything will eventually be his downfall.
2009 Team: Erie Comparison: Jose Bautista MLB ETA: 2011
OF - Brennan Boesch – 4/12/85 (23) – 6’6 – 210 – L/L 111G - .249 – 46R – 17 2B – 8 3B – 7HR – 64RBI – 36BB – 90K – 3SB – 5CS - 6E
Detroit’s third rounder in 2006, Boesch is a big, rangy kid who has been advancing one level at a time. Unfortunately, after having a solid debut in Oneonta, Boesch hasn’t done much to inspire confidence. His speed seemed to disappear on him last year, and his power has remained stagnant. He has some quality skills, but he’s going to need a breakout season to get himself back on the prospect radar.
2009 Team: Erie Comparison: Brian Anderson MLB ETA: 2012
Pitchers
SP - Jonah Nickerson – 3/9/85 (23) – 6’1 – 200 – R/R 27G - 26 Starts - 12-4, 3.99 - 146.2 IP - 138H - 13HR - 43BB - 114K - 0.87 G/A - .246 BAA
Nickerson has been a real innings eater over the past two years, stringing together quality seasons in both West Michigan and Lakeland, and finishing in the top ten in most pitching categories last season. He has terrific command and a decent curveball, but his fastball only hits about 90, and he doesn’t have any true plus pitches. He limits his mistakes, but his chances of being effective at the big league level are very slim. If he does make it, it will be as 5th starter or long relief man.
2009 Team: Erie Comparison: Paul Byrd MLB ETA: 2011
SP - Duane Below – 11/15/85 (22) – 6’2 – 205 – L/L 27G – 26 Starts – 8-7, 4.46 – 133.1 IP – 144H – 10HR – 70BB – 126K – 0.99 G/A - .280 BAA
Below earned the organizational pitcher of the year award in 2007 after a fairly dominant season in West Michigan, but he hit a pretty big bump in the road when he moved up to Lakeland. He had a great May and a solid June, but he was lit up in April, July, and August. The fall wasn’t entirely unexpected, as West Michigan has a history of making fringe pitchers look much better than they are. Below is a classic finesse lefty, with a deceptive fastball in the 89-91 range, and he has a solid curveball that helped him lead the league in strikeouts. Maybe it was his lack of top-of-the-line pitches, or maybe he just didn’t trust his stuff, but he simply gave up too many hits and walks in 2008.
2009 Team: Erie Comparison: Nate Robertson MLB ETA: 2011
RP - Ramon Garcia – 10/30/84 (23) – 6’2 – 165 – L/L Lo-A - 7G - 7 Starts – 4-3, 2.81 – 48 IP – 43H – 3HR – 5BB – 38K – 0.72 G/A - .235 BAA Hi-A - 30G - 6 Starts – 4-4, 4.57 – 82.2 IP – 99H – 11HR – 24BB – 56K – 0.73 G/A - ..289 BAA TOT - 37G - 13 Starts - 8-7, 3.93 - 130.2 IP - 142H - 14HR - 29BB - 94K - 0.73 G/A - .270 BAA
Garcia began the year in West Michigan, where he pitched in each of the past two seasons, but that’s a bit misleading because each year his season was cut short due to injury. He came back strong last year however, and receiver an early season promotion. The jump in competition didn’t do him well though, as his strikeouts fell and his walks and hits climbed. Though reports have him gaining some velocity in 2008, his fastball is still in the low 90s, and he has a solid curve. His change needs work, and that may be part of the reason he was bumped to the bullpen in Lakeland. He’ll need to work on a lot of things if he wants to continue to advance in the system.
2009 Team: Lakeland Comparison: Jamie Moyer MLB ETA: 2011
RP - Jay Sborz – 1/24/85 (23) – 6’4 – 210 – R/R 40G – 3-2, 2.87 – 7 SV – 53.1 IP – 44H – 3HR – 25BB – 48K – 1.02 G/A - .223 BAA
Sborz was Detroit’s 2nd rounder in 2003, but he spent four years struggling with injuries and command. He came back with a strong 2008 season, showcasing his low-to-mid-‘90s heater and better command of his inconsistent slider. He is said to have a max effort delivery, and the injuries are still a valid concern, but he has a good arm and a fair amount of upside.
2009 Team: Erie Comparison: Jose Veras MLB ETA: 2011
RP - Zach Simons – 5/23/85 (23) – 6’3 – 200 – L/R 46G – 6-2, 2.43 – 2 SV – 66.2 IP – 41H – 3HR – 39 BB – 75K - .059 G/A - .185BAA
AFL - 12G – 0-1, 4.85 – 13 IP – 12H – 3HR – 7BB – 6K - .032 G/A - .250
Simons was Colorado’s 2nd rounder in 2005, and he came to the Tigers organization in the Jason Grilli trade. Grilli was everyone’s favorite whipping boy, so Simons would probably get praise no matter what he did, but he actually put together a solid year. His stint in winter ball wasn’t terribly impressive, but it’s always hard to tell from a small sample in a hitter’s league. Al Avila claims Simons is a sinker/slider pitcher who pitches in the low 90s.
2009 Team: Erie Comparison: Aquilino Lopez MLB ETA: 2011
RP - Jeff Gerbe – 07/04/84 (24) – 6’3 – 200 – R/R DNP – Shoulder Surgery
Gerbe surprised many with a solid 2007 season, making the Midwest League All-Star team and eventually making two spot starts for AA Erie late in the season. Unfortunately, lingering shoulder tendonitis eventually led to shoulder surgery, forcing him to miss the entirety of 2008 and keep him out until June or July of this year. When healthy, Gerbe throws a sinking fastball in the mid-90s and complements it with a decent slider and an average change. He projects as a middle reliever.
2009 Team: Erie Comparison: Zach Miner MLB ETA: 2012
RP – Robbie Weinhardt – 12/8/85 (22) – 6’2 – 205 – R/R GCL – 3G – 5.2 IP – 6H – 2BB – 4K – 0.86 G/A - .261 BAA Hi-A - 21G - 3-1, 2.04 - 4SV - 35.1 IP - 19H - 1HR - 11BB - 44K - 0.88 G/A - .162 BAA TOT - 24G - 3-1, 1.76 - 4SV - 41 IP - 25H - 1HR - 13BB - 48K - 0.87 G/A - .179 BAA
A 2008 6th round choice, Weinhardt had the best debut of any of the many relievers Detroit drafted. He’s a strikeout machine, using his 94-96mph 2-seam fastball and a slider to get plenty of swings-and-misses. He looks like a flyball pitcher, which could be a problem as he faces hitters with more power, but he has a power arsenal, and should always be able to get strikeouts.
2009 Team: Erie Comparison: Manny Delcarmen MLB ETA: 2011
RP – Cody Satterwhite – 1/27/87 (21) – 6’4 – 205 – R/R GCL – 3G – 0-0, 0.00 – 1SV – 2.1 IP – 4H – 1BB – 2K – 0.33 G/A - .400 BAA Hi-A – 17G – 0-0, 4.42 – 2SV – 18.1 IP – 16H – 12BB – 22K – 0.60 G/A - .232 BAA TOT – 20G – 0-0, 3.93 – 3SV – 20.2 IP – 20H – 13BB – 24K – 0.57 G/A - .253 BAA
Detroit’s 2nd round pick in 2008, Satterwhite has a power arm, reaching 95 with regularity, but his professional debut was slightly disappointing. He gave up a lot of hits, walked too many batters, and he has extreme flyball tendencies. He also offers a good slider at times and an average changeup, but both pitches are inconsistent. If the Tigers can iron out some kinks in his delivery, he has the potential to be a decent starter, but he’s more likely headed to a career in the bullpen with potential to be a solid setup man.
2009 Team: Erie Comparison: David Aardsma MLB ETA: 2011
RP – Ryan Perry – 2/13/87 (21) – 6’4 – 200 – R/R GCL – 2G – 0-0, 0.00 – 2 IP – 4K – 2.00 G/A - .000 BAA Hi-A – 12G – 1-2, 3.86 – 4SV – 11.2 IP – 15H – 0HR – 7BB – 12K – 1.09 G/A - .300 BAA TOT – 14G – 1-2, 3.29 – 4SV – 13.2 IP – 15H – 0HR – 7BB – 16K – 1.27 G/A - .268 BAA
Detroit’s top pick in 2008, Perry wasn’t terribly impressive in his first action as a pro, but the sample size is rather small. He is one of the few guys I have actually seen pitch, albeit again in a small sample, but I’d be lying if I said I was terribly impressed. Yes, he has a huge arm, pumping in fastballs that can reach triple digits, throwing particularly evil sliders, and he even dropping in a solid changeup every now and then. Unfortunately, his fastball is very straight and he has a tendency to open up a little too early, resulting in fastballs that sail right over the middle of the plate. Another problem is that his slider is almost as inconsistent as it is wicked, and his change isn’t really a swing-and-miss pitch. The good news is that he has a rare arm, and if they can make a few key tweaks, his ceiling is sky high.
2009 Team: Erie Comparison: Worst Case: Craig Hansen, Best Case: Brad Lidge, Likely Case: Kyle Farnsworth MLB ETA: 2011
*Since I wrote that I had a chance to see Perry pitch against St. Louis, and he looked terrific. He only threw a couple of breaking balls, but his fastball was never lower than 96, hit 98 several times, and topped out at 99. Best of all, it showed nice action, running away from lefties and boring in on right-handers. He threw strikes, and didn’t let the leadoff man getting on faze him. I was impressed.
Porcello gets his own post because I couldn't fit him into the Lakeland pitcher post:
SP - Rick Porcello – 12/27/88 (19) – 6’5 – 200 – R/R
24G – 24 Starts – 8-6, 2.66 – 125 IP – 116H – 7HR – 33BB – 72K – 2.48 G/A - .244 BAA
Porcello is the best player in Detroit’s system, and considered among the very best pitching prospects in all of baseball. MiLB.com has him ranked 4th in the minors. Last year, as a 19-year-old in his first professional action, Porcello led the Florida State League in ERA (2.66) and finished 4th in WHIP (1.19). There has been some significant debate about Porcello though, because his strikeout numbers are not up to par with traditional aces. Skeptics contend that he doesn’t possess the power arm that was advertised and that his inability to garner swings and misses will hurt him as he advances. Supporters point out that the Tigers took away his slider, had him on a strict pitch count (75 per outing), and told him to focus on his changeup and command.
What we do know is that the Tigers are extremely high on Porcello. He features a four-seam fastball in the mid-90s, but more often he throws a low-90s two-seamer with tremendous movement and sink. In fact, of all the major leaguers who threw 120+ innings in 2008, only Bndon Webb, Fausto Carmona, and Derek Lowe got as many groundball outs as Porcello. Porcello’s changeup is said to be a terrific pitch (see here), but I don’t really know what to make of his breaking pitches. On the one hard, I thought perhaps the Tigers were grooming him to be a classic sinker/slider pitcher, but then Baseball America comes out and ranks his curveball as the best in the system. They also rank his changeup as the best in the system, so if he is allowed to use all five pitches this year, the strikeout numbers could potentially increase. The trick for Tigers fans is to be patient. Porcello is still very young, and he simply isn’t ready to be a big-league starter this year. Everyone should be overjoyed if he can go between 140-150 innings in Erie with an ERA at or near 3.00.
2009 Team: Erie Comparison: Worst Case: Jon Garland, Best Case: Roy Halladay MLB ETA: 2010
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 8, 2014 11:31:47 GMT -5
Later in 2009: Avila, to me at least, looks like a left-handed Laird. He has been pretty impressive in terms of cutting down runners (32/68, 47%) but he does have 10 passed balls. That's not a huge deal, because he only started playing Catcher in his Junior year at Alabama, but I suspect he may spend another full year in the minors to work on his receiving skills.
I'd rank him as their #1 offensive prospect right now for his combination of solid offense and defense at a premium position. His age is appropriate for the level of competition, and he has handled the jump from low-A to AA very well. Scott Sizemore and Ryan Strieby are close behind, but their defensive limitations are a bit glaring (Sizemore, in particular, is looking more and more like a liability in the field. He has average range, and made his 5th error in AAA last night, giving him 17 errors in 84 games).
My top 10 Tigers prospects, as of right now:
1 - Ryan Perry, RHP (still considered a prospect) 2 - Alex Avila, C 3 - Scott Sizemore, 2B 4 - Ryan Strieby, 1B/LF 5 - Casey Crosby, LHP 6 - Wilkin Ramirez, OF 7 - Casper Wells, OF 8 - Mauricio Robles, LHP 9 - Robbie Weinhardt, RHP 10 - Brooks Brown, RHP
The #10 prospect could probably be switched with about 8 other guys (Figaro, Thad Weber, Casey Fien, Cody Satterwhite, Brennan Boesch, Cale Iorg, Andy Dirks, Deik Scram), but Brown is a solid sinker/slider guy who seems to consistently give his team a chance to win, despite pedestrian peripheral stats.
If Jacob Turner and Daniel Fields sign, they would both crack this list, with Turner at #1 and Fields probably at #10. Only two of the Tigers top picks have signed so far:
Third round pick Wade Gaynor has been highly disappointing, and it is evident that he is having difficulties adjusting to wood bats.
Fifth round pick Edwin Gomez hasn't had a whole lot of opportunity to play in the GCL, but he's holding his own, considering he won't turn 18 until next month.
Some later round guys are making noise, specifically Michael Rockett, but then that's what college hitter are supposed to do in short-season A-ball.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 8, 2014 11:45:03 GMT -5
Prospects for 2010 (before the Tigers acquired Austin Jackson):So I've put together a list of my top 30 Tigers prospects. I am not a scout, and I have not seen the majority of these guys play at all, so take what I say with a grain of salt. I'm basing these ranking almost entirely off minor league numbers and any random scouting reports I can dredge up from the Internets, with the ultimate ranking determined by each player's ceiling, and the likelihood of him reaching that ceiling. 1. Casey Crosby – LHP – 6’5, 200 - 9/17/88 (21)
Tommy John surgery cost Crosby the majority of 2008, but he bounced back in a major way in 2009, turning in one of the most dominant seasons for any pitcher in the low-A Midwest League. Held to a pitch count and innings limit by the Tigers, Crosby still managed to go 10-4, 2.41 with 117 strikeouts in 104.2 IP, and he held opposing batters to just a .195 average. He attacks batters with one of the best fastballs in the system, a mid-90s heater that touches 97, features solid late movement, and seems to jump on hitters due to his lanky frame. He also features a sharp slider that he throws in the mid-80s, and a circle change that help him generate a lot of ground balls. He is an intense competitor, and his tremendous athleticism helped him go from the surgeon's table to the pitcher's mound in just nine month. Crosby doesn't have a classic delivery, and he still lacks polish on the mound. His command lags behind his control, his walk rate was much higher than ideal, and he was the beneficiary of a good deal of luck, as evidenced by his .279 BABIP and 3.18 FIP. That said, control is typically the last thing to return to pitchers, and if Crosby can continue to hone his secondary pitches and command, he could easily reach his potential as a solid #2 starter. The Tigers may be tempted to jump him to AA Erie, but it would probably be wise to give him at least half-a-year at Lakeland.
2. Jacob Turner - RHP - 6'4, 205 - 5/21/91 (18)
I suspect most prospect publications will rank Turner ahead of Crosby, and his ceiling may be a tick higher, but I chose Crosby because Turner hasn't thrown more than a few innings in the instructional league. We are also likely to see some unimaginative comparisons to Verlander and Porcello, but that's not fair to Turner. He does feature a plus fastball that sits in the 90-94 range and has reportedly touched 98, but he lacks the consistent velocity of Verlander and the movement of Porcello. He has a bit more room to grow, so he may eventually sit in the 92-96 range, and the Porcello comparisons may actually be valid with regard to maturity and fastball command. His curve shows great spin and has the potential to be a second plus pitch, though he will need to improve his command and consistency. He maintains his arm slot and speed on his changeup, but it lags behind his other two offerings, and is likely something the Tigers will have him focus on in his first professional season. With the potential for three above-average pitches, Turner projects as a top-of-the-rotation starter in the Chris Tillman mold, and he will likely begin his career in low-A West Michigan.
3. Scott Sizemore - 2B - R/R - 6'0, 185 - 1/04/85 (24)
The most advanced hitter in the Detroit system, Sizemore had a tremendous offensive season on his way to earning organizational player of the year honors. Though he lacks any one standout tool, he shows above average ability across the board, with a solid line-drive stroke, the power to hit 15-20 homers annually, a good batting eye, and average speed that plays up due to great baserunning instincts. His defense remains his weakest skill, but his strong arm and decent range should make him a solid average defender at the big league level. Sizemore was off to a blistering start in the Arizona Fall League when a freak accident resulted in a fractured left ankle and tendon damage. If all goes well, he'll be back on his feet in January, and he should be ready to step into Detroit's starting lineup by April.
4. Alex Avila - C - L/R - 5'11, 210 - 1/29/87 (22)
Avila shot through the minor leagues, becoming just the 5th player from the 2008 draft to see time in the majors -- quite an accomplishment for a 5th round choice. Though some here would no longer consider him a prospect, Avila still maintains his rookie eligibility, and while it certainly seems as though he'll begin the year in the majors, there is always a chance he'll head to Toledo for more seasoning. Avila has smooth left-handed swing that produces sharp line drives, and he has legitimate power that may produce 15-20 homers per year in his prime. He shows the ability to work counts until he can get a pitch to handle -- his 4.33 pitches-per-plate-appearance led the Tigers, albeit in a small sample size -- but he'll also occasionally get himself out by expanding the strike zone. He's only been a catcher for three seasons, so his defense lags behind his offense, but he seemed to have a good rapport with his pitchers, and he has a solid arm that helped him erase 41% of potential basestealers. He still needs to work on his footwork and blocking skills, but more experience and his baseball pedigree should help him continue to improve defensively.
5. Andrew Oliver - LHP - 6'3, 210 - 12/03/87 (22)
Oliver's fastball rivals fellow lefty Crosby's as the best in the system, sitting in the 92-94 range and touching 96 with good late movement. Projected as a top 15 pick after a sensational Sophomore season, Oliver lost his breaking ball as a Junior and slid to the Tigers in the 2nd round. Detroit sent him to the Arizona Fall League to work on his secondary stuff, and he had moderate success. After surrendering two hits, two walks, and a grand slam in his first inning of work, he settled down and gave up only one more earned run over his final 15 innings, striking out 15, while giving up 11 hits and 7 walks. He capped off his season with two scoreless, hitless innings in the AFL championship game. His fastball is a plus pitch, though he still needs to work on his command, and his changeup features enough sink to be an average major league offering. The Tigers are doing what they can to help Oliver find his slider again, and the early returns are good, though the pitch may never be more than a glorified cutter. He'll likely begin the year as a starter in Lakeland, but he may ascend to the Majors as a reliever by the end of the year. He profiles as a #3 starter, or a reliever in the mold of Matt Thornton.
6. Robbie Weinhardt - RHP - 6'2, 205 - 12/08/85 (24)
Weinhardt may not have the highest ceiling, but he seems to be the most likely player in the system to reach his full potential. He dominated the opposition in his 2008 debut, and 2009 saw more of the same at a higher level. He pounds the strike zone with a fastball in the 92-95 range, with excellent movement naturally created by his low-3/4 arm slot. He also features a mid-80s slider with sharp late break, and a decent change that he probably won't have to use much. He shook off a very rough start in the Arizona Fall League to eventually lead the league in strikeouts. Weinhardt probably doesn't have the stuff to be a closer, but he seems very likely to become an effective late-inning reliever, perhaps as soon as 2010.
7T. Wilkin Ramirez - OF - R/R - 6'2, 190 - 10/25/85 (24)
Few, if any, players in the system can match Ramirez's overall package of skills, but there are enough holes in his game to seriously question whether he'll ever fully take advantage of those tools. His above-average power mostly leads to hard line drives to the gaps, but he's also capable of unleashing tape-measure bombs, as evidenced by the 430-foot shot he hit in his Big-League debut. He also has plus speed that lets him glide around the bases and turn singles into doubles. In a perfect world, Wilkin has the power and speed to produce multiple 20-20 seasons in the majors, but his lack of plate discipline (28% K rate) will likely prevent him from ever hitting for average. He seems to swing for the fences with every hack, and he's very susceptible to breaking balls, but he's also a streaky hitter who can be a tremendous threat for weeks at a time. Though he has the plus speed to steal 30 bases annually, he still needs to pick his spots a bit better, and his wheels do nothing to help him in the outfield, where he gets bad reads and takes poor routes. He has a strong arm, and he's been manning center field in the Dominican Winter League, but he is unlikely to ever be more than an average left fielder. Ramirez's value will ultimately be determined by his bat; with some strides in the right direction he could become an exciting player for years to come.
7T. Casper Wells- OF - R/R - 6'2, 210 - 11/23/84 (25)
Wells doesn't quite have the tools that Wilkin Ramirez does, but he earns a tie because he is more well-rounded. Wells sprays line drives all over the park, with enough usable power to clear the fence 15-20 times a year. Defensively, he is light-years ahead of Ramirez, showing the ability to man all three outfield positions, and possessing the best outfield throwing arm in the system. He has average speed that works well in the outfield, but he's unlikely to steal more than 10 bases a season at the big-league level. Wells shows a patient approach at the plate, but he tends to swing through a lot of pitches, thus making him another player who strikes out too much to hit for a high average. He battled through a wrist injury this year, and he wins high marks for his makeup and personality. Right now he projects as a cross between Brent Clevlen and Clete Thomas, but he still has time to improve in AAA Toledo.
9. Ryan Strieby - 1B/OF - R/R - 6'5, 235 - 08/09/85 (24)
Like Wells, Strieby battled wrist troubles all year, but Strieby's issues are a bit more troubling because they stemmed from a broken hamate bone he suffered in 2008, and they lingered all season. But even though he dealt with a truncated season, Strieby managed to post some eye-popping numbers. He hit 19 homers and slugged .565 through 86 games, while also walking in more than 15% of his plate appearances. His OPS of .991 would have led the league by more than 40 points had he qualified. When healthy, he possesses the most usable power in the entire system, capable of launching moonshots to all fields. He strikes out fairly frequently, but his whiff numbers aren't exorbitant, and he was more than willing to let opposing teams pitch around him. His large frame results in some holes in his swing, particularly on the inner half, but he projects to hit in the .250-.270 range. Strieby doesn't offer much defensively, with poor mobility around the bag and little range in the outfield. His career will ultimately be determined by his ability to hit, and if he can stay healthy, he could be filling a Marcus Thames-like role as soon as 2010.
10. Daniel Fields - SS/3B/OF - L/R - 6'2, 200 - 1/23/91 (18)
With no professional track record, it's hard to accurately predict anything for Fields, but scouts love his potential to be a true five-tool player. He has a quick left-handed stroke that produces line drives, and he should eventually develop plus power. His best current tool is his plus speed that should allow him to steal plenty of bases, and he also has a very strong arm that will play at either SS or 3B. He shows soft hands and a good glove, but he lacks the range and reactions to stay at shortstop for very long. He could likely handle a move to third, but he may ultimately be most valuable in center field, where his power and speed could draw comparisons to the Dodgers budding superstar Matt Kemp. He has been around baseball for his entire life, but he is still pretty raw, and will most likely spend the early part of next season in extended spring training before moving to a rookie league.
11. Cody Satterwhite - RHP - 6'4, 205 - 1/27/87 (22)
Detroit's second-round choice in the reliever-heavy 2008 draft, Satterwhite possesses a fastball that compares favorably with first-rounder Ryan Perry, sitting around 95 and touching 98 with relative ease. His gets good late life on his heater, and a deceptive delivery makes the pitch exceedingly difficult to hit. Satterwhite also throws a sharp curve, and his time as a starter at Ole Miss has also left him with a rudimentary but promising slider, and a below average change. But, like Perry, Satterwhite profiles better as a reliever because he has a tendency to be wild. He should head to Toledo next year, and he if can make strides with his command, his potential for two plus pitches makes him an ideal closer.
12. Brennan Boesch - OF - L/L - 6'6, 210 - 4/12/85 (24)
Boesch's struggles in Lakeland in 2008 nearly dropped him off the prospect map, but he rebounded in a huge way in AA Erie, leading the Eastern League in home runs (28), and finishing among the top 4 in runs (89), triples (7), RBI (93), and SLG% (.510). His huge frame helps him generate well above average power, particularly to the pull field, and he's more athletic that one would think, with decent speed that helps him swipe a few bases and play average defense in the outfield. Boesch swings at almost everything, and he misses quite frequently. The strikeouts aren't terribly excessive (127), but when taken in conjunction with his walks (33), it's clear that his lack of plate discipline is a serious issue. The Tigers added Boesch to their 40-man roster, and with better strike zone control he could be the left-handed power hitter Detroit has been seeking for years, but without serious strides he is unlikely to be anything more than a fourth outfielder.
13. Audy Ciriaco - SS - R/R - 6'3, 195 - 6/16/87 (22)
Ciriaco has shown flashes of his five-tool potential for four years, and things were hit-and-miss once again in 2009, but his addition to the 40-man roster indicates the belief among Tigers officials that he started to figure things out halfway through the season. He's a plus fielder, with tremendous range, soft hands, and an extremely strong arm. He has good raw power, plus present speed, and the ability to make solid contact. He doesn't work the count terribly well, and though he doesn't strike out a ton, he could certainly stand to get himself into better counts and take a few more walks. His glove should get him to the Majors at some point, possibly even at 3B, and he should make enough contact to be at least a competent utility man. He has a long way to go to reach his ceiling, but if he does, he has All-star ability.
14. Cale Iorg - SS - R/R - 6'2, 180 - 9/06/85 (24)
It's no coincidence that Iorg and Ciriaco rank so closely on my list, because the two are practically identical players. Ciriaco has the stronger arm, but Iorg is actually a tick better with the glove -- so good, in fact, that many scouts think he could be a Gold Glove SS in the Majors right now. He's a tremendous athlete, boasting above average speed and power, and his short swing and quick wrists should help him hit for average. The operative word there is should, though, because it has become increasingly evident that Iorg simply can't hit. He led the Eastern League in strikeouts (149, or 28%), and he rarely walked (32, or 6%), resulting in the second lowest OBP (.274) among Eastern League regulars. He also struggled mightily in the Arizona Fall League, though he was apparently working on completely new batting mechanics, so it's hard to take anything from that. He still has a chance to work things out and become the All-star Dombrowski hopes he is, but 2010 is likely to be a make-or-break year for him. He probably should return to AA next year, but with Ciriaco on his heels, the Tigers may continue to push him.
15. Zach Simons - RHP - 6'3, 200 - 5/23/85 (24)
Simons, a second-round pick for the Rockies in 2005, came to the Tigers organization in the Jason Grill trade. Detroit added him to the 40-man roster after an impressive 2008 in which he pitched in high-A and the AFL. His 2009 was just as impressive, as he saw success in both AA and AAA, giving up 54 hits and 25 walks in 69.1 IP, while striking out 63. He attacks hitters with a fastball that sits in the 91-94 range, and can touch 96. He also throws a biting slider that flashes as an above average pitch, and a change that remains below average. He has the stuff to be a setup man, but his command tends to elude him, and he probably profiles better as a 6th- or 7th-inning arm. He could see time in Detroit in 2010.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 8, 2014 13:21:22 GMT -5
From August 9th, 2010:Position PlayersSo I’ve been toying with a more scientific way to rank prospects, rather than just using scouting-report osmosis and simply ranking guys on a whim. It occurred to me that there are two important factors when evaluating prospects:
1 – The player’s realistic ceiling. The key here is realistic...lots of prospects have the tools to be studs, but I want to stay within the bounds of reality. 2 - The likelihood of said player reaching his ceiling.
I'm a product of public schools, so my grading systems will be forever biased by the A-E scale. Here is how it works, with regard to the ceiling grade:
A - MVP and Cy Young candidates. Aces, and guys who are All-Stars every year. (Cabrera, Verlander) B - Above-average players, #2 Starters, and Closers. Could make multiple AS teams. (Valverde, Ordonez) C - Average regulars, #3-4 starters, setup men. Might back into the AS game. (Inge, Bonderman) D - 5th starters/swingmen, specialists, extra outfielders, backup catchers, and utility men. (Bonine, Raburn) E - Quad-A players, pinch-hitters, emergency starters. (Kelly, Figaro)
And the second grade is a bit more self-explanatory. A guaranteed big-leaguer gets an A, a guy with a great shot gets a B, and so forth and so on. When calculating this, I'll look at the player's tools, plate discipline, and distance from the Majors. Note that an E grade doesn't mean the kid is a failure...it just means I give him less than a 20% chance of reaching his ceiling.
I'll list each player's position, level, height & weight, age (in parentheses), and then grades (ceiling first, likelihood second).
So yeah, let's get to it:
Hitters 1 - Nick Castellanos - 3B - HS - 6'4, 200 (18) - A/C - Obviously a long way away, but has the potential to be a 30 HR, .300 AVG hitter with solid D. Will probably rank in the 25-75 range in terms of best prospects in the Minors next year.
2 - Daniel Fields - CF/RF - High-A - 6'1, 200 (19) - B/C - Bonus baby exceeding all expectations after an extremely aggressive assignment to Lakeland. Exhibits plus power, speed, and defense. Needs to use his speed better on the basepaths, and he may not hit for high average, but he'll take more than enough walks to make up for it.
3 - Ryan Strieby - OF/1B - AAA - 6'5, 235 (25) - C/B - Massive power with decent plate discipline, but he won't hit for a high average, his defense is sub-par, and he's battled nagging wrist injures for the past three seasons.
4 - Rob Brantly - C - Low-A - 6'3, 205 (21) - C/C - 2010 draft choice projects to hit for a good average with decent pop and a discerning eye at the plate. Athletic enough to stick at Catcher, but questions about his arm.
5 - Francisco Martinez - 3B - High-A - 6'1, 180 (19) - B/D - Should hit for average with plus defense and solid speed, and should develop at least average power. Making tremendous strides with his plate discipline this year: 5 BB and 33 K in 31 May/June games, 13 BB and 18K in 33 July/Aug games.
6 - Casper Wells - OF - AAA - 6'2, 210 (25) - D/B Having a horrible season, but he's finally started putting things together after the AAA All-Star Game, posting a terrific .319/.388/.714 line. Still, he's unlikely to hit enough to be a regular, but his plus power, tremendous arm, and solid defense at all three outfield spots should make him a valuable 4th outfielder.
7 - Wade Gaynor - 3B - Low-A - 6'3, 225 (22) - B/D Starting to turn his raw tools into performance, with a .336/.402/.514 July and a very solid August do far. Huge raw power, with decent plate discipline and enough athleticism to move to the OF if he has to.
8 - Bryan Holaday - C - High-A - 6', 205 (22) - D/B Tremendous defense, work ethic, and leadership all but guarantee him at least a backup role in the Majors. Offensive potential, but probably won't hit enough to be a regular.
9 - Avisail Garcia - RF - Low-A - 6'3, 190 (19) - B/D - Five-tool kid has the raw ability to be a top-100 overall prospect. A 5-week hot streak (15 multi-hit games) has driven his average up 30 points, and gives a glimpse as to his potential. Plenty of speed, but he needs to bring his plus raw power to games and improve his plate discipline.
10 - Billy Nowlin - 1B/DH - AA - 6'1, 210 (23) - C/C - He's a hitter and not much else, but his bat may get him to the Majors. Shook off a brutal start to the year (.213 in Apr/May) but has gone .305 with power since.
11 - Andy Dirks - OF - AAA - 6', 195 (24) - D/B - Basically Clete Thomas with a little less pop and fewer strikeouts, Dirks profiles as a 4th OF who can occasionally bat leadoff and give you solid speed and defense.
12 - Brandon Douglas - 2B - AA - 6', 185 (25) - D/C - Douglas has no real power to speak of, but the kid can hit for average, steal some bases, and play good defense.
13 - Audy Ciriaco - 3B/SS - AAA - 6'3,195 (23) - C/D - Ciriaco is a very athletic kid who probably has the defensive tools to be a decent utility infielder right now. He also has good speed and power, but he's a hacker who probably won't ever hit or walk enough to be a regular.
14 - Gustavo Nunez - SS - High-A - 5'10, 170 (22) - C/E - Nunez was highly overrated by Baseball America coming into the season, and he has failed to live up to the hype. He does offer elite speed and tremendous defense, but he doesn't take walks, and he appears to lack batspeed.
15 - Cale Iorg - SS - AA - 6'2, 180 (24) - C/E - Iorg shares a very similar profile to Ciriaco, except that Iorg is a better defender, but even more of a hacker at the plate. Ciriaco swings a lot, but he's at least decent at getting the bat on the ball. Iorg just swings and misses all the time, and it's highly unlikely that will ever change.
16 - James Robbins - 1B - Short-season A-ball - 6', 220 (19) - C/E - Robbins is another hacker, but he has a lot more time to work out his issues. He's a decent athlete, and he has the ability to hit for power and average in the future, but he must develop some plate discipline in the future if he ever wants to see the Majors.
17 - Dixon Machado - SS - Rookie - 5'10, 140 (18) - C/E - Machado's prospect status is largely dependent upon whether he can ever add any bulk. He shares a similar profile to Gustavo Nunez, in that he's a elite defender with speed and the ability to put the ball in play. It's mostly a question if he ever gets strong enough to hit consistently.
18 - Javier Azcona - 3B - Rookie - 6'1, 185 (18) - (C/E) - Just as Machado is similar to Nunez, Azcona is similar to Ciriaco. He's a converted SS with 5-tool potential, though the organization expects him to grow quite a bit, and in the process gain power while losing speed. He has issues with plate discipline, of course, but he's young.
19 - Edwin Gomez - Rookie - OF - 6'3, 175 (18) - C/E - Drafted in the 4th round last year as a SS out of Puerto Rico, the Tigers quickly decided that Gomez would eventually grow too big to play in the infield. It's his big frame and five-tool potential that intrigued the Tigers, but he's yet to show any signs of his plus speed and average power. Still plenty of development time though.
20 - Danry Vazquez - NA - RF - 6'2, 170 (16) - C/E - Vazquez is the recipient of the largest international free agent contract the Tigers have ever doled out, and that's an indication of how much they believe in his potential with the bat. No one is predicting that he'll become a Miguel Cabrera or even a Miguel Sano type of hitter, but the organization thinks he'll eventually hit for average and good power. Long road to go though.
In case you were wondering where a couple of guys we've seen this year would rank:
4 - Scott Sizemore - 2B/3B - AAA - 6', 185 (25) - C/B - Much maligned, and seemingly in Leyland's permanent doghouse, Sizemore still has all the tools to be an above-average offensive player.
12 - Will Rhymes - 2B - AAA/MLB - 5'7, 155 (27) - D/B - Rhymes is awfully old to be a prospect, but he can hit a little, show some speed, and flash occasional pop. He's a solid defender at 2nd, and he shows a patient enough approach to be a decent everyday player, but he still probably fits best as a utility man.
13 - Danny Worth - SS/2B - AAA/MLB - 6', 185 (24) - D/B - Worth was drafted in the 2nd round in 2007 as a glove-first SS who could hit the occasional gapper. That's essentially what he has turned out to be, but in the end I don't think he'll hit enough to be more than a utility infielder. PitchersSo, thanks to the advice of MoOff, and the ranking system that hockeysfuture.com apparently subliminally implanted in my brain, I will now alter my completely unoriginal rankings to include a number grade and a letter grade, instead of the uninspired letter grade and letter grade. The ranking system now looks like this:
1 - MVP and Cy Young candidates. Aces, and guys who are All-Stars every year. (Cabrera, Verlander) 2 - Above-average players, #2 Starters, and Closers. Could make multiple AS teams. (Valverde, Ordonez) 3 - Average regulars, #3-4 starters, setup men. Might back into the AS game. (Inge, Bonderman) 4 - 5th starters/swingmen, specialists, extra outfielders, backup catchers, and utility men. (Bonine, Raburn) 5 - Quad-A players, pinch-hitters, emergency starters. (Kelly, Figaro)
Now, on to the pitchers:
1 - Jacob Turner - RHP - High-A - 6'5, 210 (19) - 1/B - Turner has held his own following a solid stint in A-ball and an aggressive promotion to High-A Lakeland. Despite his pedestrian numbers, he has true Ace potential, with a fastball in the mid-90s, a potential hammer curve, and a developing changeup. He also shows advanced control, having walked just 19 in 95 innings, and he has terrific makeup, as evidenced by the fact that he shook off a rough start in Lakeland (13 ER in his first 12 IP) to settle in nicely (6 ER in the 29.1 IP since).
2 - Andy Oliver - LHP - AAA - 6'3, 210 (22) - 2/B - Despite a Major-League debut that left many wondering what the hype was about, Oliver still offers a tremendous amount of potential. His fastball should be a devastating weapon once he learns how to use it properly, and he's had success with his breaking ball before. He's still working on his slider, and at this point it is only occasionally flashing as an above-average pitch. His changeup probably has more potential as a swing-and-miss pitch, but he needs to continue to throw it. So he definitely needs to refine his secondary stuff and continue to learn how to pitch to professional hitters, but he's been just fine in his first year out of college. Once he figures things out, he'll be a quality #3 starter. Even if things don't come together, his fastball will be enough for him to get by as an elite late-inning reliever.
3 - Casey Crosby - LHP - High-A - 6'5, 200 (21) - 2/C - I had Crosby as the Tigers' #1 prospect coming into this season because he possess a tremendous fastball from the left side, sitting comfortably in the mid-90s and touching 98. He also throws a sharp curveball that frequently flashes as a plus pitch, and he has shown the feel for a changeup. Unfortunately, Crosby's season was a complete washout thanks to more issues with his elbow. After missing his first season with TJ surgery, the elbow is now a major concern, and the Tigers are apparently trying to completely change his delivery. The question marks are too big to ignore, and there's a real possibility that he moves to the bullpen to limit the wear on his arm. He still has the upside of a #2 starter or perhaps a closer, but he needs to stay healthy.
4 - Chance Ruffin - RHP - College - 6'1, 185 (21) - 3/C - Ruffin was the Tigers' second supplemental round pick this year, after spending three years pitching for Texas. He has started before, but the Tigers drafted him as a reliever. In that role, he shows a 91-95 mph fastball and a sharp slider that ranks as his best pitch. He also throws a slower curve and a changeup, but he is unlikely to throw those much as a pro. Some believe he has closer potential and have compared him to fellow Longhorn Huston Street, though it's more likely that he becomes a solid setup man. He should move quickly, and could be pitching in Detroit's bullpen as soon as next year.
5 - Lester Oliveros - RHP - AA - 5'11, 178 (22) - 2/D - Oliveros is one of the top risers among pitchers this season. His velocity was always a plus despite his small stature, but this year it has taken a step forward, with his fastball sitting in the 93-95 range and touching 97. He also has a very good slider with two-plane break that he's starting to command better. He has the stuff and demeanor to be a closer, but he must stay on top of the ball to counteract his height issues and keep his pitches low in the zone. He's walking more batters and getting touched for more hits in AA (particularly in his hitter-friendly home park), but his strikeout numbers remain very encouraging (49 Ks in 34.2 IP, including 25K in 15.2 AA innings).
6 - Charlie Furbush - LHP - AAA - 6'5, 215 (24) - 4/B - Furbush ranks second in all of minor-league baseball in strikeouts, but he did most of his damage in High-A and AA, and his stuff just doesn't match up to his numbers, as indicated by his struggles in AAA. He used to have a good fastball that hit 94, but now it's an average pitch that sits around 90-91, and he complements it with a good slurve with solid movement that gets him swings-and-misses, and a below-average changeup that he rarely throws. Furbush has solid control (33 BB in 137 IP), but his command falters and he's prone to hanging breaking balls that get rocked (20 HRs). He gets absolutely destroyed by right-handed hitters (8.10 ERA in AAA, 6HR in 16.2 IP), and that's unlikely to change unless he gets more comfortable with his changeup. If he does, he could be a solid #5 starter, but it's more likely that he becomes a lefty specialist or long reliever.
7 - Duane Below - LHP - AA - 6'2, 205 (24) - 3/C - A 19th-rounder in 2006, Below entered the system as nothing special, but he has steadily improved his stuff to the point that he's now a legitimate prospect. He suffered a major setback with TJ surgery last year, but he has made remarkable strides in his return, particularly with his fastball and his control. His heater now sits in the 90-92 range, but he can get it up to the mid 90s, and he combines an improved changeup with one of the system's best curves. His numbers aren't spectacular in AA, and he needs to continue working on his change if he wants to get advanced right-handed hitters out, but he's got a solid shot at being a #3-4 starter.
8 - Drew Smyly - LHP - College - 6'3, 190 (21) - 3/C - I'm being a bit conservative with Detroit's 2010 second rounder, but I generally don't like giving high rankings to players who haven't seen any professional action (Castellanos notwithstanding). He brings average velocity for a lefty, sitting at 89-91 and spiking to 93-94, but his fastball plays up because he has above-average command. He also has a solid slider, though some call it a cutter, and a decent curve and changeup. He was a draft-eligible sophomore, and he has decent size, so his stuff may still improve a bit as a pro, but for now he projects as a #4 starter. He'll probably debut in Lakeland next year, but an assignment to West Michigan for at least half of the year wouldn't be surprising either.
9 - Jay Sborz - RHP - AAA - 6'4, 210 (25) - 3/C - I'm not a big fan of Sborz, but he has the stuff to be an effective late-inning reliever. His debut with the Tigers came at the worst possible time, and he only threw gas on the fire, but he still has a plus fastball that sits around 94 and reaches 97, and a plus power curve. Unfortunately, Sborz doesn't locate either pitch particularly well, often falling behind in counts and hanging pitches that get deposited in the seats (8 HR in 42.1 IP). He's had two great months and two awful months in Toledo, and August isn't beginning well. We'll probably see him again in September, but I don't know what to expect.
10 - Brayan Villareal - RHP - AA - 6', 170 (23) - 4/C - Villarreal has posted some very solid numbers in A-ball and AA over the last two years, but like Furbush, the stuff doesn't quite match the numbers. It's not that he doesn't have a quality arsenal, with a 93mph heater that can hit 96, a slider that ranks among the best in the system, and an average changeup. Despite his decent numbers as a starter, almost everyone believes he profiles better as a reliever. His stuff could play up a bit in that role, but he has below average command and he tends to leave too many pitches up in the zone. He may continue to start, but his future is probably that of a 6th- or 7th-inning man.
11 - Luke Putkonen - RHP - High-A - 6'6, 200 (24) - 4/C - Putkonen is a groundball guy who has taken a bit of a step back this year, as he isn't getting nearly as many strikeouts or groundballs as he did last season, but he still profiles as a solid back-end starter at the MLB-level. He complements an average 91-93mph fastball with a good curve, an average slider, and an average changeup. He knows how to mix his pitches, and he has decent command. He's unlikely to regain his strikeout numbers, but his groundball stuff should still play at higher levels thanks to better defense behind him.
12 - Cole Green - RHP - College - 6'1, 210 (21) - 4/C - Green wasn't a terribly inspiring draft pick in the 4th round this year, but it's almost universally accepted that he will pitch his way to the Majors in some capacity. He is more reminiscent of a Minnesota Twins pick than a Tigers pick, because Green lacks plus velocity but makes up for it with very good command. His fastball is fringe-average at 88-91, but it features plus movement and gets grounders. He also throws an average slider and an average changeup, and he shows solid command of both pitches. The best-case scenario is that he develops into a Randy Wells-style groundball pitcher who eats innings. However, it's more likely that he takes on the long-relief role occupied by guys like Miner and Bonine.
13 - Case Fien - AAA - RP - 6'2, 195 (26) - 4/C - Fien does absolutely nothing for me, but he does have decent stuff that could play in a MLB bullpen -- he just has zero room for error. Fien's fastball is a solid-average pitch, sitting in the 90-93 range with decent movement, and he backs it up with an average to above-average slider that he throws for strikes. He has been very good in the minors, but in his brief stints in the Majors he left pitches up in the zone, and paid the price. He's a 7th-inning guy at best, and we may see him again in September.
14 - Zach Simons - AAA - RHP - 6'3, 200 (25) - 4/C - Simons is an interesting case, because he has good stuff and he's in the middle of his third consecutive good year in the minors, yet it appears that he's nowhere close to getting a chance with the Tigers. His fastball sits around 93, but he can get it to 95-96, and he also has a pretty good slider. He throws strikes, but they aren't always quality strikes, leading to the occasional homer, but he attack hitters and he appears to have everything a team would want in a 7th-inning guy. Apparently the organization sees something it doesn't like.
15 - Alfredo Figaro - AAA - RHP - 6', 175 (26) - 5/B - This is kind of a high ranking for a guy I consider a quad-A player, but the fact remains that Figaro has the stuff to be a decent swingman. Figaro is capable of throwing a wild fastball in the 95-96 range, but the Tigers have convinced him to throw it in the low 90s to improve his command. He has also improved his curveball to the point that it's a solid 2nd pitch for him, but his changeup remains below average. Figaro's main problem is inconsistency, as he can strike out 10 guys one start, then turn around and give up 8 runs in his next outing.
16 - Cody Satterwhite - AA - RHP - 6'4, 205 (23) - 2/E - Satterwhite faces a very tough road after undergoing surgery for a torn labrum in his shoulder this season. A torn labrum isn't the pitching death knell it once was (Chris Carpenter came back quite successfully), but it's never good news, and it can take 12-24 months for a full recovery. When healthy, Satterwhite could fire high-90s fastballs with ease, and he also threw a slurvy pitch that was inconsistent but showed plus potential, and a decent changeup. He ran into issues with commanding his pitches, which made him a bit more hittable than his stuff would suggest. If he can recover fully, he'll still have the arsenal of a legit closer, but it's going to be a long two years for him.
17 - Ramon Lebron - Short-season A-ball - RHP - 6'1, 180 (21) - 2/E - Lebron began the year as a starter in West Michigan, but he struggled in that role and was sent to the rookie-level GCL to regain his confidence. He apparently did, and has been bumped up to short-season Connecticut. He has one of the most electric fastball in the system, a late-moving heater that hits 96 with regularity. Unfortunately, he has no idea where it's going. He shows the potential for a decent curve and changeup, but both pitches are a long way away. If everything goes right, Lebron has the stuff to be either a mid-rotation starter or a closer, but he's more likely to fizzle out somewhere in the minors.
18 - Josue Carreno - Short-season A-ball - RHP - 6'1, 170 (19) - 4/D - Carreno's profile couldn't be much different than Lebron's, as he's a kid who doesn't offer much in the way of velocity, but he projects for above-average command down the line. His fastball is only in the 89-91 range right now, but he will probably bump it up a few mph in the future, and he also throws a changeup with very good potential and a curve that could become an average pitch in the future. He has a long way to go, but he shows a good feel for pitching and he still has a fair amount of upside.
19 - Alex Burgos - Rookie - LHP - 5'11, 170 - 4/D - Burgos was the team's 5th-round pick this year, and apart from the size differences, he shares a similar profile to former Tiger's prospect Giovanni Soto. He gets his fastball to 90-91, but it plays up a bit because he has an above-average curve, an above-average changeup, and he knows how to pitch. Not sure whether they develop him as a starter or a reliever, but he's one to keep an eye on.
20 - Cole Nelson – Rookie - LHP - 6'7, 235 (21) - 4/D - Nelson was Detroit's 10th-round pick this year out of Auburn, and he is a very interesting prospect. He's a giant human being, which has caused him to struggle to find a consistent delivery. His fastball sits at about 92 right now, but there are some thoughts that he can throw harder with improved mechanics, and his slider also has good potential. He could be tried out as a starter, but he'll probably be a reliever in the future. If they manage to work out the kinks in his delivery, he could be a very interesting player to watch in the future.
If Daniel Schlereth qualified:
4 - Daniel Schlereth - AAA - LHP - 6', 210 (24) - 2/D - Stink's kid has tremendous stuff, with a fastball in the mid-90s, a hammer curve, and a solid changeup. Unfortunately, he really struggles with his command, to the point where he often has trouble even finding the strike zone. He still has closer potential, but the longer he struggles to find the plate, the more it appears that he may never stick in the Majors.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 8, 2014 13:23:12 GMT -5
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 8, 2014 13:28:12 GMT -5
From 1/09/11 - Top 20 Pitching Prospects (With a strangely relevant intro, at least as far as December 2014 is considered) Hey! Tired of this Michigan coaching search nonsense and looking to waste some time? Why not spend a few minutes reading about Tigers pitching prospects written by a random fan with no training in scouting or prospect evaluation! Hooray!
A reminder that I cobbled together a lame letter/number system as a method of ranking each prospect, with the letter indicating what the player's ultimate ceiling is, and the number indicating the odds of him reaching his potential, with 1 being very likely, and 5 being not so much.
A - MVP and Cy Young candidates. Aces, and guys who are All-Stars every year. B - Above-average players, #2 Starters, and Closers. C - Average regulars, #3-4 starters, setup men. Might back into the AS game. D - 5th starters/swingmen, specialists, extra outfielders, backup catchers, and utility men. E - Quad-A players, pinch-hitters, emergency starters.
1 - Jacob Turner - RHP - High-A - 6'5, 210 (19) - A/2 – By any objective measure, Turner’s first season of professional baseball was a rousing success. He spent the first half of the year in low-A West Michigan, where he posted a solid 3.29 FIP before being promoted to high-A Lakeland. Despite being the youngest pitcher in the Florida State League, Turner shook off a rough start (13 ER in his first 12 IP) to finish with a dominant 10-game stretch, going 4-1, 1.28 with 32 H, 10 BB, and 41 K in 49.1 IP. He has a plus fastball that currently sits at 92-93 with solid movement, and touches 95. It has hit 98 in the past, and most project him to sit at 94-95 in another year or two. Turner’s curveball already flashes as a plus pitch, and has the potential to be a plus-plus offering in time. He can throw it in the zone as a knee-buckler, or start it in the zone and bury it in the dirt to get swings and misses. Turner’s changeup is a third solid pitch, with the potential to be a plus offering in time. His control is more advanced than Porcello’s was at a similar stage of development, and he projects to have at least average major league command. With added strength and further refinement of his secondary pitches, Turner should be a legitimate #1 starter, with a floor no lower than a #3. He may return to Lakeland to begin the year, but he’ll definitely reach Erie at some point during the season, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him take the mound in Detroit in a late-summer doubleheader.
2 - Andy Oliver - LHP - AAA - 6'3, 210 (23) - B/2 – Tigers fans got a glimpse of Oliver’s potential last year, but they also saw that he has a way to go before he realizes that potential. He posted solid if unspectacular numbers in AA Erie and AAA Toledo last year (9-8, 3.45), but he was overmatched in the Majors. Oliver throws two fastballs, with his 4-seamer sitting in the 93-94 range and hitting 97 with relative ease., and his 2-seamer sitting at 91-92 with solid movement. Oliver shows good arm action and deception on an 80-84 mph changeup, and the pitch figures to be at least an average Major-league offering, with the potential to be a fringe-plus pitch. His slider was once considered his best pitch, but it disappeared on him, and he lost confidence in his ability to throw any breaking pitches. The slider came back a bit last year, and while some hope it can return to being a plus pitch, it’s probably unlikely to ever be more than an average offering. Oliver currently has below-average control and command, but both should be average in time. What Oliver needs most is to continue to refine his secondary stuff, preferably with at least 100 innings in Toledo. His current ceiling appears to be as a #3 starter or a dominant late-inning reliever, though he still has a chance to be better than that.
3 - Chance Ruffin - RHP - College - 6', 185 (22) - B/3 – Detroit’s second supplemental round pick in 2010, and the son of former big leaguer Bruce, Ruffin’s professional debut came in the form of 9.1 innings in the Arizona Fall League. A former starter, Ruffin offers a four-pitch mix, but the Tigers drafted him as a reliever and want him to concentrate on refining his 91-95 mph fastball and sharp slider. The slider is a true plus pitch, though some worry that professional hitters won’t chase it as much as college batters did. His curve and changeup both lag well behind, but he can break them out to keep hitters off balance. He projects for above-average control and command, and though his stuff may be a tad short to close games, he certainly has the mental toughness to fill that role. He’ll likely begin as the closer in Lakeland, but he’s advanced enough that he also figures to see time in Erie and Toledo next season, with an outside shot of pitching in Detroit.
4 - Drew Smyly - LHP - College - 6'3, 190 (21) - C/2 – Detroit nabbed Smyly with the 68th pick in the 2010 draft, and in many ways, he’s the complete opposite of what they typically target in pitchers. His height and lanky frame do offer a bit of projection, but for the most part he’s a lefty who going to offer average velocity on his fastball, sitting at 89-91 and occasionally spiking to 93. He also throws a solid slider/cutter, and he can mix in an average curve and changeup. Though Smyly’s stuff doesn’t wow, it all plays up thanks to plus control and command. He can locate his fastball anywhere he wants it, he commands his secondary pitches well, and he is very adept at mixing his pitches and changing velocity. He’ll begin the year in Lakeland, and though some see a guy who could develop into a #3 starter, the more likely scenario is that he becomes a solid #4-5.
5 - Jose Ortega – RHP – AA – 5’11, 165 (22) – B/3 – Ortega is the prime example of why my method of prospect evaluation is lacking…at this point last year I knew next to nothing about the kid, because I’ve never seen him pitch, and scouting reports were lacking. But information is out there now, and it’s very encouraging. Ortega is quite small, but that doesn’t prevent him from consistently throwing 94-97 with life and deception. He backs up his fastball with a good slider that frequently flashes as an above-average pitch, and could be plus in time. With no changeup to speak of, Ortega is strictly a reliever, but with continued improvement to his control and command, he has the potential to be a closer. The Tigers added him to their 40-man roster this offseason, though he figures to split his time between the bullpens in Erie and Toledo.
6 - Lester Oliveros - RHP - AA - 6', 185 (22) - B/3 - Oliveros is almost identical to Ortega, but his command is slightly less refined, so he takes a back seat here. He also possesses a plus fastball, sitting in the 92-94 range and consistently jumping up to 96, and he gets terrific movement on his heater when he keeps it low in the zone. Oliveros’ slider has a chance to be the best in the system, with two-plane break that generates a ton of swings and misses. He also throws a fringe-average changeup, but he doesn’t use it very effectively at this point. Oliveros dominated in high-A (1.89, 24K in 19 IP) , where he often induced strikeouts by throwing pitches out of the zone, but that practice caught up to him a bit in AA, where he posted a 4.97 ERA in 25.1 IP. He still managed to rack up 36 strikeouts in that time though, which indicates that he simply needs to trust his stuff a bit more. Added to the 40-man roster this offseason, Oliveros will get another crack as the closer in Erie, and he has the potential to fill that role in Detroit one day soon.
7 - Brayan Villarreal - RHP - AA - 6', 170 (23) - C/3 - Villarreal is one of two pitchers in the system whose numbers consistently surpass his scouting reports (the other being Adam Wilk). In Villarreal’s case it’s more a question of his size and durability than his stuff. He generates plus velocity on his fastball, sitting at 93-94 and flashing as high at 97, and he has above-average command of the pitch. In a system filled with very good sliders, Villarreal’s ranks among the best, showing a sharp two-plane break when it’s on. His fringy changeup has the potential to be average in time, and the Tigers will continue to let him start until he proves he can’t. That said, scouts almost universally agree that he’ll end up being a 7th-inning guy, because they doubt his frame will be able to handle a starter’s workload, and his slider isn’t quite consistent enough to be a true setup man or closer. He’ll likely return to the rotation in Erie, but he was added to the 40-man roster this offseason, so he could also begin working as a reliever in Toledo, with a chance as seeing Major-League action sometime in 2011.
8 – Al Alburquerque – RHP – AA - 6’, 195 – (24) – C/3 – The fourth consecutive prospect with a similar profile (but the one with the best name), the Tigers signed Alburquerque to a Major-League contract this offseason. Originally signed by the Cubs, and later traded to the Rockies, Alburquerque has always had a power arm, but has struggled with injuries and inconsistency in the early portion of his career. He looked like a sure bet to join the Rockies bullpen after touching 99 last winter, but he struggled a bit when he returned to AA, and the Rockies let him go. As mentioned, he throws very hard, with the ability to hit the high-90s, but he works better at 92-94 where the heavy life on his fastball generates a lot of groundballs. He also throws a solid slider in the high-80s with good depth. He profiles as a 7th-inning guy, and he’ll probably begin the year in Toledo, but there’s a chance that he could break camp as the last man in the Tigers bullpen.
9 - Casey Crosby - LHP - High-A - 6'5, 200 (21) - B/4 – Taken on pure talent alone, Crosby would easily be the #2 pitching prospect in the system, and he would rank among the top 100 prospects in all of baseball. Unfortunately, arm injuries have caused him to miss two of his three professional seasons, and there are now serious doubts as to whether he can reach his potential. When healthy, he throws a tremendous fastball from the left side, sitting comfortably in the mid-90s and touching 98. He also throws a sharp curveball that frequently flashes as a plus pitch, and he has shown the feel for a changeup. If all goes well, Crosby will likely join the Lakeland rotation to being the year, with a chance to bump up to Erie mid-season, but it’s possible the Tigers will decide he can’t handle starting anymore. If he stays healthy, he has the stuff to be a #2 starter or a closer.
10 - Duane Below – LHP – AA – 6’2, 205 (25) – D/2 – Unheralded out of college and picked in the 19th round back in 2006, Below was beginning to get some buzz when he went down with TJ surgery and missed most of the 2009 season. He returned to pitching last season and showed few signs of rust. He throws a fastball that sits in the 91-92 range, but can scrape 95, and he backs it up with one of the system’s best curveballs and a promising changeup that has a chance to be an average pitch. His fastball has some life, but he doesn’t offer a lot of deception, so he’ll need to keep it down to be successful at higher levels. His 12-6 curve has the potential to be a legitimate plus pitch, but he’s still learning how to use it effectively. His control was surprisingly solid considering his long layoff, but his command isn’t as sharp as it needs to be. He was added to the 40-man roster this offseason, but he’ll probably head back to the Erie rotation to begin the year. He’s got a solid chance to be a back-of-the-rotation starter, but it’s more likely that he becomes a swingman.
11 - Charlie Furbush - LHP - AAA - 6'5, 215 (25) - D/2 - Furbush posted impressive numbers in Lakeland and Erie before getting exposed in Toledo, but he did end the year with the second most strikeouts in all of minor league baseball. His fastball is an average pitch that sits around 90-91, but it plays up a bit because he has a deceptive delivery and he knows how to alternate speeds. He complements his heater with a solid-average curve that gets him a lot of his whiffs, but his changeup lags well behind his other two offerings. He has solid control, but he doesn’t command his pitches terribly well, and he is prone to the long ball when he doesn’t locate his curve. Unless he makes big strides with his changeup, he will continue to get hammered by right-handed hitters (8.13 ERA in AAA, 7HR in 31 IP). He could be a 5th starter if he does, but if he doesn’t, his profile is that of a situational lefty or long reliever. He’ll return to the Toledo rotation, and after being added to the 40-man roster this offseason, there’s a chance he could start in Detroit at some point this year.
12 -Cole Nelson – LHP – High-A – 6’7, 235 (21) - C/4 – It’s very early, but Nelson has the potential to be a huge win the scouting department. He’s a giant kid, but he struggled with his mechanics and command in his lone season at Auburn, resulting in him falling to Detroit in the 10th round. The development staff made a few mechanical adjustments, and a fastball that sat in the 89-91 range is now 92-93, and occasionally hitting 95. He also has a solid curveball that has the potential to be a plus pitch, and he’s making strides with his changeup. If everything works out, he could develop into a solid #3 starter, but there’s a long way to go. He’ll begin the year in the Lakeland rotation, and he’s definitely a name to watch this year.
13 - Josue Carreno- RHP – short-season A – 6’1, 170 (19) - C/4 – The Tigers challenged Carreno with an assignment to Connecticut last year, and he performed quite well considering it was his first season outside of Venezuela. There’s still a lot of projection left in Carreno, but he has a chance to be the best true starting pitcher to come out of the Latin American program thus far. He currently throws his fastball at 90-92 with good movement, and with added strength he should be able to hit 94 consistently. His curve has the potential to be an above-average pitch, and he has shown good feel for his changeup. His control and command are below average right now, but he’s a very hard worker and both should be at least average in the future. He’ll take a spot in the rotation at West Michigan this year, and though he’s obviously very far away, he has the potential to be a #3 starter some day.
14 - Zach Simons - RHP – AAA - 6'3, 200 (25) - D/3 – I’m just not sure what the deal is with Simons. His fastball sits at 93, and can get to 95-96, and he also has an above-average slider. He is coming off three solid seasons in the minors, and he has average control. His command isn’t great, and he’s a flyball pitcher, but I can’t figure out any other reason why he hasn’t been given a shot in Detroit, or traded. He could probably be at least a decent 6th-7th inning guy, but as it stands, it looks like he’ll be back in Toledo for a third year.
15 - Matt Hoffman – LHP – AA – 6’2, 195 (22) - C/4 – The Tigers went over slot to sign Hoffman out of an Oklahoma high-school in the 26th round back in 2007. He showed some promise as a starter at the lower levels, and the Tigers had dreams of a future Andy Pettite on their hands, but he struggled mightily once he hit high-A Lakeland. He was moved to full-time relief last year, and he was able to handle Lakeland, but ran into a wall again when he hit AA Erie. He also struggled in the Arizona Fall League, but a strange development out in Arizona is what puts him on the list. His fastball has always been in the 88-90 range, occasionally touching 92, but in Arizona he repeatedly hit 95, and even touched 97 a few times. In the past he has shown signs of having an above-average curveball and changeup, so the sudden spike in velocity opens up some interesting possibilities. He still struggles with control and command, but he now has an arsenal that could be very impressive if everything suddenly clicks for him. He’ll probably begin the year back in the Erie bullpen.
16 - Adam Wilk – LHP – AA – 6’2, 175 (23) – D/3 – I mentioned Wilk earlier as a guy who consistently outperforms his stuff, and now I’ll explain. Drafted in the 1tth round in 2009 out of Long Beach State, Wilk was nearly untouchable in his professional debut, posting a 4-1, 1.47 mark with 67 Ks against 7 walks in 73.2 IP between short-season Oneonta and low-A West Michigan. Then last season he proved difficult to solve in high-A Lakeland, and looked even more impressive in a short stint at AA Erie. Wilk’s fastball is well below average, sitting in the 85-87 range and peaking at about 89, and his curve and cutter are both fringy offerings that could eventually be average pitches. Wilk’s biggest assets are his above-average changeup, and his plus command that ranks as the best in the system. He easily moves his pitches around all four quadrants of the strike zone, and thus far that has been enough to keep hitters off balance. It’s still unlikely that he makes the Majors at all, and if he does it will probably be as a lefty specialist, but at some point you can’t ignore the performance. He’ll begin the season back in the Erie rotation.
17 – Bruce Rondon – RHP – High-A – 6’2, 220 (20) – C/4 – Rondon has always had good arm strength, but not much of an idea where the ball was going. After working as a starter in his first two years as a professional, the Tigers moved him to the bullpen, and turned him into a side-armer. What makes him most interesting is that he maintained his velocity from the new arm angle, sitting at 92-93 and frequently hitting 95. He backs that up with a promising, though inconsistent slider, that has the potential to be an above-average or even plus pitch. He absolutely dominated hitters in the Gulf Coast League, and was equally untouchable in a short stint as the closer in Lakeland. His command and control is below average, he needs to keep his weight in check, and there are some legitimate concerns that his success is based on being a bit of a novelty act. He’ll probably begin the year as the closer at West Michigan, and if everything works out he could eventually become a Pat Neshek style late-inning reliever.
18 - Luke Putkonen - RHP - High-A - 6'6, 200 (24) - D/3 – Putkonen continues to grind his way through the minors, but his profile as a pitcher has changed a couple of times now. When he was drafted, the Tigers had visions of him turning into a hard-throwing strikeout pitcher, but he ended up being more of a groundball pitcher with only solid strikeout tendencies. Then last year the groundballs and the strikeouts both dropped off substantially, yet he was still successful by being a crafty strike thrower. His four-seamer hits at 91-92 and gets up to 94, and his two-seamer is 88-89 with good bore and sink. His curve, slider, and change are all below average, with his curve having the most promise and his changeup potentially an average pitch. He shows solid command, and he knows how to pitch. He’ll begin the year in the Erie rotation, and could eventually turn into a #5 starter or swingman.
19 - Brendan Wise – RHP – AAA – 6’2, 190 (25) – D/3 – Wise is the epitome of an unspectacular relief prospect, but the odds are that he ends up in a Major League bullpen somewhere. An 8th-rounder back in 2005 out of Australia by way of a Kansas community college, Wise’s fastball is only 89-91, but he keeps it low and he gets fantastic sink that generates a ton of groundballs. He shows a slurve with decent potential, and an occasional changeup, but it will be his sinker that gets him to the Majors. He’ll begin the year back in Toledo, but he could get the call to Detroit at any time.
20 – Scott Green – RHP – High-A – 6’7, 240 (25) – C/4 – The Tigers chose Green in the 3rd round of the “reliever draft” in 2008, and his pure stuff ranks up there with any reliever on this list. Unfortunately, he has battled injuries for most of his career, and when he’s not completely right, his velocity dips and his command falters. He had TJ surgery in 2006, strained a lat muscle in 2007, and had tears in his labrum repaired last year. He came back at the end of 2010, and the Tigers hope he’s healthy in 2011. When right, he throws a 4-seam fastball at 94-95, and can reach as high as 97, and he backs it up with a terrific cut fastball in the 89-90 range, and a fringy changeup. His command has never been stellar, and all the missed time can’t help, but in the off chance he puts everything together, he could move quickly enough to be in Detroit this season. He’ll begin his road back with a return to the Lakeland bullpen.
Other names to know:
SP - Thad Weber, L.J. Gagnier, Mark Sorensen, Alex Burgos, Jade Todd, Wilsen Palacios RP - Tyler Stohr, Melvin Mercedes, Ramon Lebron, Austin Wood, Antonio Cruz, Anthony Shawler
Top 20 Positions Prospects Not a terribly stellar group here.
A reminder that I cobbled together a lame letter/number system as a method of ranking each prospect, with the letter indicating what the player's ultimate ceiling is, and the number indicating the odds of him reaching his potential, with 1 being very likely, and 5 being not so much.
A - MVP and Cy Young candidates. Aces, and guys who are All-Stars every year. B - Above-average players, #2 Starters, and Closers. C - Average regulars, #3-4 starters, setup men. Might back into the AS game. D - 5th starters/swingmen, specialists, extra outfielders, backup catchers, and utility men. E - Quad-A players, pinch-hitters, emergency starters.
Top 20 Position Prospects
1 - Nick Castellanos - 3B - GCL - 6'4, 200 (19) - A/3 – Castellanos was a consensus top-20 player in the 2010 draft, and many considered him the among the best high-school bats in the draft. He has terrific hands and bat speed, and has shown a willingness to wait on pitches and take them the other way. He projects for at least average power, with a chance to hit 25-30 homers a year in his prime, and though he currently has average speed, he’s likely to be below average as he fills out his frame. He has more than enough arm strength to stick at third, and though he’s still raw defensively, he possesses the athleticism to be at least an average MLB third sacker. At this point, the main question about his game is what kind of hitter he’ll become. He’s Don Kelly thin right now, with skinny legs and broad shoulders, but his frame can easily handle 15-20 pounds of muscle. If and when he gains weight, it will be interesting to see if he maintains his line-drive approach, or if he begins to sell out for a bit more power. He figures to begin his first full season of professional ball in West Michigan.
2 - Daniel Fields - OF - High-A - 6'1, 200 (20) - B/3 – Fields is a very intriguing prospect who offers the most complete set of skills in the entire system. Despite those tools, and the pedigree of being the son of a former Major-Leaguer, most scouts felt Fields was a bit raw due to playing his prep ball in the North. So it was a shock to see him begin his professional career in high-A Lakeland. Perhaps even more shocking was that he held his own, despite switching positions and being the second-youngest regular in the league. He’s a legit five-tool kid, with plus power potential, plus to plus-plus speed, an above average arm, and the ability to play plus defense. The hit tool remains Fields’ biggest question mark, as he swings-and-misses frequently, and he struggles with breaking balls. However, Fields shows a very patient approach at the plate, and he finished the season with the second-highest walk rate in the FSL. Fields is still learning when to jump on pitches, his plus arm hasn’t fully translated to the outfield, and his baserunning skills remain very raw. He projects to begin the year back in Lakeland, and he could produce multiple 20-20 seasons in the Majors in his prime.
3 - Francisco Martinez - 3B - High-A - 6'1, 180 (20) - B/3 – The Tigers are extremely excited about Martinez, made evident by the fact that he skipped over low-A ball entirely, and after the season he was sent to the Arizona Fall League, where he was the youngest player this side of Bryce Harper. Given his age and lack of professional experience (117 games before this year), his performances in both Lakeland and the AFL are encouraging. Martinez projects for at least average tools across the board, with the chance of being a true five-tool talent. His knack for centering the ball and willingness to go the opposite way give him the potential to perhaps be a .300 hitter in his prime, and he has above-average speed that plays up thanks to very good baserunning instincts. Defensively, he has an above-average arm, good range, and soft hands, giving him the potential to be a plus defender overall. The main question at this point is whether Martinez will ever turn his above-average power potential into usable game power. If he does, he has legitimate All-star potential. The Tigers will continue to push him, and the generous home park in AA Erie may help him realize that power sooner than later.
4 - Rob Brantly - C - Low-A - 6'3, 205 (21) - B/3 – Heading into 2010, Brantly was considered by many to be the best College backstop after Bryce Harper, thanks in part to winning the batting title in the wood-bat Northwoods League in 2009. But a couple of college catchers broke out in a big way in 2010, while Brantly remained merely solid, and thus the Tigers were able to grab him in the third round as a draft-eligible sophomore. Brantly’s strength right now is his bat, where he uses quick hands and a short swing to spray line drives around the park. He also shows good pitch recognition and plate discipline, and he has solid power down the lines, with the potential to add more. Like most catchers, he is a below-average runner, but he isn’t the kind of guy who will clog the basepaths. His arm strength is average, but he has a quick release, and while he still has to work on his blocking and receiving skills, he projects as a possible plus defender. If he gets enough time to develop, Brantly has legitimate All-star potential. He should probably get at least another 60 games in at West Michigan, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Tigers push him to Lakeland.
5 - Wade Gaynor - 3B - Low-A - 6'3, 225 (22) - C/3 – Gaynor’s professional career began with a thud when he posted a .192/.281/.282 triple-slash for the Tigers’ short-season A–ball affiliate. But Detroit’s 3rd round pick in 2009 out of Western Kentucky started to tap into his potential last year at West Michigan, where he posted a .789 OPS. Gaynor’s best tool is probably his above-average raw power, which could push into plus territory in his prime. He shows the potential to be an average hitter, though he’s more likely to hit in the .250-.260 range. Gaynor is extremely athletic, and despite his big frame, he shows above-average to plus speed. Defense is the biggest question mark for Gaynor. He has a strong arm and makes all the plays he needs to, but he shows awkward actions and most scouts think he’ll have to move to the outfield in the Majors. He has the ability to handle such a move, but his power will have to fully develop for him to stick. He’ll stay at 3rd until he’s forced to move though, and that’s where he’ll play in Lakeland this year.
6 - Avisail Garcia - RF - Low-A - 6'3, 190 (19) - B/4 – Garcia has as much potential as anyone in the entire system, but I’m skeptical of him ever actualizing that potential. He has a knack for consistently making contact, but his free-swinging ways will likely prevent him from being more than an average hitter in his prime. He has plus raw power, but it hasn’t translated to games yet because he tends to jump on the first pitch he can hit, rather than waiting for something he can truly drive. He’s an above-average runner with the potential to steal 15 bases a year in the early part of his career, and his defense ranks at the very top of the system, thanks to a plus arm, good range, great jumps, and terrific instincts. Garcia’s lack of plate discipline (43 BB, 224 K in 272 career games) worries me quite a bit, but he is extremely young, so there’s always a chance he figures things out. He’ll begin next year as Lakeland’s starting right fielder.
7 - Danry Vasquez - NA - RF - 6'2, 170 (17) - A/5 – The Tigers absolutely love the potential in Vasquez’s bat, as evidenced by the fact that his $1 million bonus is the largest the club has ever given to an international free agent. His track record is thin, because of his age, but he held his own in the Venezuelan Parallel league this fall/winter. His hit tool is very advanced for such a young kid, with very good bat speed and a level swing that keeps the barrel in the zone. He also shows better plate discipline than most of the Tigers Latin American prospects, and he makes adjustments well. There is already a fair amount of power in his left-handed swing, and as he fills out his frame, he could have some real pop in time. He’s athletic and has enough speed to handle CF now, but he’s certain to move to RF once he finishes growing. He shows the potential for a true plus-plus arm, and his defense should be solid. All the tools are there for this kid to succeed, but he’s so young, and he has so far to go that anything can happen. From the looks of it, the Tigers are considering letting him begin his career in the Gulf Coast League, which is an aggressive assignment.
8 - Ryan Strieby - OF/1B - AAA - 6'5, 235 (25) - C/3 – I feel bad ranking Strieby this far down the list, because his raw ability should have him as the 2nd or 3rd player, but after struggling with the same hand/wrist injury for the last three years, I can’t trust him to reach his potential. When he’s right, Strieby has the most power in the entire system, with the ability to hit 30 homers a year in the Majors in his prime. He’s also a solid hitter, who could bat .250-.280 in the Bigs, and his solid plate discipline should allow him to post an on-base percentage in the .340-.370 range. Strieby has below-average speed, and he offers little in the way of defensive ability, where his range is subpar at both 1B and LF, and his arm is merely average. Tigers fans should root for this kid to get healthy, because he could actually turn into the power threat we thought Boesch was last year, albeit in a DH role. He’ll compete for that chance in spring training, but he’ll probably begin the year as Toledo’s starting 1B.
9 - Andy Dirks - OF - AAA - 6', 195 (25) - D/2 – An 8th-round pick in 2008, Dirks had perhaps the best season of any position prospect in the system last year, hitting .296 with 15 homers and 22 steals across AA Erie and AAA Toledo. He continued his success in the Dominican Winter League, where he posted a .906 OPS and swiped 10 bags. Dirks is the epitome of a 4th outfielder, because while he does everything well, he doesn’t have one particular skill that stands out. He has a nice left-handed swing, and projects to be a solid-average hitter with average pop and decent plate discipline. He has above-average speed and is a quick accelerator, and his arm, range, and instincts are all good enough for him to man any of the outfield positions. Dirks is stuck behind Casper Wells, Clete Thomas, and Ryan Raburn at this point, so he’ll head back to Toledo to begin the year, but he’s a lock to see time in the Majors at some point.
10 - Cale Iorg - SS - AAA - 6'2, 180 (24) - C/4 – Iorg has been much-maligned for his inability to show any progress at the plate, but the remainder of his tools are so good that if he gets the bat clicking, he could be a special player. He has the hands and bat speed to hit, but he has little to no plate discipline, very little pitch recognition, and he can’t hit breaking balls. He has above-average power, and when he makes contact he generally puts a charge into the ball. He’s a plus runner, with the speed to swipe 20 bases in the Majors. And Iorg is one the very best defenders in all of the minor leagues, showing excellent range, terrific instincts, soft hands, and a very strong arm. He has true Gold Glove potential, and the Tigers aren’t going to write him off until they’re absolutely certain he can’t play in the Majors. At this point, it appears that his ceiling would be as an Adam Everett type with more power and speed, but I’m still not sure he will hit enough to be a regular anywhere. He’ll return to Toledo to begin the season, but he was added to the 40-man roster this offseason, so don’t be surprised if he makes his MLB-debut this year.
11 - Brandon Douglas - 2B - AA - 6', 185 (25) - D/3 – Douglas is almost the complete opposite of Iorg, as he’s the system’s best pure hitter, but he shows little in the way of secondary skills. His hit tool is remarkably good, and he shows terrific pitch recognition, the ability to work counts, very good plate discipline, and a ridiculous ability to make solid contact with the ball – in his three years in the minors, he has hit .328, .322, and .345. Douglas has the pop to hit 20-25 doubles a year, but power isn’t really a part of his game, and it would be a shock to see him ever hit more than 5 homers in a year. He has slightly above-average speed that plays up a bit because of good instincts, but he’s probably not a guy who can swipe more than 10 bags a year. Douglas has the chance to be an average defender, with decent range to both sides, and an average arm. If things work out for Douglas, he could develop into a Polanco-type hitter, albeit with less defensive ability. He has little room for error though, and with Guillen, Rhymes, and Sizemore ahead of him right now, he’ll have to return to Erie to get his ABs in 2011.
12 - Bryan Holaday - C - High-A - 6', 205 (22) - D/3 - Holaday was the best senior catcher in college last year, and the Tigers grabbed him in the 6th round because they loved his leadership and defense. After leading his TCU team to within one win of the College World Series final, Holaday made a quick splash in Lakeland, posting a .365/.494/.540 line in 18 July games. He then fell off a cliff, and managed only a .094/.179/.153 triple slash in 22 August games. His true hitting ability lies somewhere in between, as he was likely worn down after a long year. Holiday made big strides with his bat as a senior, but most scouts still don’t see a guy who will hit above the .240 range. He does have some decent pop in his bat though, and could potentially hit 10-15 homers a year in his prime. He’s a below-average runner, even by catching standards. Holaday’s ticket to the Majors will be his defense, where he calls a good game, shows terrific arm strength, is adept at blocking balls in the dirt, and displays tremendous leadership. He’s the sort of kid who has a career in managing after his playing days are over. The Tigers want him to wait on that for a while though, and they’ll send him back to Lakeland to begin the season.
13 - Gustavo Nunez - SS - High-A - 5'10, 170 (23) - C/4 – The gap between Nunez’s raw ability and his performance is nearly as maddening as Cale Iorg’s. In the past, Nunez has shown the ability to hit for average, but his batspeed is a bit lacking, and he may not be able to catch up with good fastballs. On top of that, he has almost no power, to the point that some scouts joke about him getting the bat knocked out of his hand when he makes contact. What Nunez does have is elite speed, consistently garnering scores of 70 and 80 from scouts, and if he can refine his instincts a bit, he could steal 40-50 bases in the Majors with relative ease. His speed also helps on defense, where he has ridiculous range, soft hands, and a very strong arm. Overall, his defense ranks just a tick behind Iorg’s. Nunez struggled to hit above .220 in Lakeland, so 2011 is going to be a very important year for him. He’ll be the everyday SS in Erie, and his performance will likely determine if he has an MLB future, or if he’s just organizational fodder.
14 - Audy Ciriaco - 3B/SS - AAA - 6'3,195 (23) - C/4 – Ciriaco had enough raw ability for the Tigers to add him to their 40-man roster following the 2009 season, but the strides he made in 2009 didn’t translate in 2010, partially because he battled a lingering hand injury all year. He’s an aggressive hitter, which will probably keep him from ever hitting for a high average, but he has enough hand-eye coordination to avoid racking up exorbitant strikeout numbers. His above-average raw power started to show up as his body filled out, though that also turned his above-average speed into solid-average speed. Ciriaco had the range, hands, and arm strength to be an above-average defender at SS, and he can also handle third quite well, though he tends to rush at both positions, leading to errors. This promises to be a pivotal year for Ciriaco, because success makes him an injury away from being a starter at SS or 3rd for the Tigers, but failure could mean the end of his run in the organization. He’ll likely begin the year as the everyday 3rd baseman for Toledo.
15 - Dixon Machado - SS - Rookie - 6', 140 (19) - C/5 – Like Iorg and Nunez, Machado appears to be another glove-first shortstop with some offensive upside. Despite hitting only .205 in the Venezuelan Summer League in 2009, Machado impressed the Tigers enough to earn a trip stateside last year. He doesn’t project to be more than an average hitter, but he’s also unlikely to be a liability with the bat, because he knows how to make contact, and he has shown the ability to work counts and draw walks. As a slap hitter, he doesn’t figure to ever post eye-popping power numbers, but he still has a bit of growing to do, and he could be a guy who hits 20-25 doubles a year in his prime. Machado has above-average to plus speed that should allow him to steal 20-30 bases a year once he refines his instincts. And like Iorg and Nunez before him, Machado projects to be a true plus defender, with terrific range, soft hands, a plus arm, and improving footwork. He’s a long way from the Majors, but the tools are all there for Machado to develop into a legitimate big-league player. He’ll start his journey as the everyday shortstop at West Michigan.
16 – Rawley Bishop – 1B - AA – 6’2, 211 (25) – D/4 – As a 25-year-old in AA, Bishop doesn’t exactly scream prospect, but he has some skills that may get him a look in the Majors. He projects to be an average hitter, because he makes consistent contact and he does a good job of staying inside the zone. He has a tendency to swing and miss on breaking balls, but he takes enough walks to keep it from being a serious issue. Bishop’s power is below-average, and he’s likely much more of a doubles guy than a homer guy. He has below average speed, but terrific instincts that allow him to steal bases when pitchers lose focus. Bishop has a terrific arm that plays well at 3rd, and he’s the best first base defender in the entire organization, with terrific hands and solid range. He can play 3rd in a pinch, though he lacks the range to stick there, and he could probably also handle a outfield corner. He’ll probably return as the everyday first baseman at Erie in 2011.
17 - Billy Nowlin - 1B/DH - AA - 6'1, 210 (24) - E/3 – Nowlin was a 25th round pick in 2008 out of Golden West College in California, and he has been a solid organizational bat thus far. Unfortunately, his bat is the only thing that really stands out, and it probably doesn’t stand out enough for him to be anything more than a pinch-hitter in the Majors. His numbers were down a bit last year, but he projects to be at least an average hitter, with above-average potential. He has quick hands, strong wrists, and he recognizes pitches well, giving him the ability to hit the ball hard all over the field. He also has average to above-average power, though his pursuit of pure contact often prevents him from hitting for more power. And that’s about it for Nowlin. He’s a below-average runner, and he’s an awful defender with no defensive home. With that lack of defense, he would need a tremendous bat to stick in the Majors, and it’s just not at that level. He’ll probably return to Erie next year, with a chance to move to Toledo at some point.
18 – Corey Jones – 2B – Low-A – 6’, 190 (23) – D/4 – Drafted in the 7th round last year, Jones is one of the better pure hitters in the system, and he could probably be accurately described as a left-handed Brandon Douglas. He can seemingly put the ball in play whenever he wants, though he does strike out a bit more than expected. He does have a little bit of power, but doesn’t project to ever hit more than 10 homers in a season. He has average speed, but it shows up more in his defense than it does on the basepaths. He shows decent range at second base with good hands, and though his arm is fringy, he could be an average defender in time. He’ll open up the year as the everyday 2B in Lakeland, and his performance there will determine whether he moves up the list or falls off completely.
19 – Jamie Johnson – OF – Low-A – 5’9, 180 (23) – D/4 – The Tigers drafted Johnson out of Oklahoma in the 7th round in 2009, and he’s a classic scrappy outfielder with the skills of a leadoff man. Johnson is a fringe-average hitter, but his skills play up a bit because he has the best plate discipline in the entire system. He has well below-average power, to the point that he may not be able to drive the ball against more advanced pitching. Johnson has plus speed that is readily apparent when he runs down the first-base line, and when he roams the outfield, but he doesn’t use it very well once he’s on base. He has an above-average arm with solid accuracy, and he’s plus defender in Center. There’s an outside chance that he develops into a 4th outfielder, but he’ll be 24 shortly after he begins this season in Lakeland, and unless he develops a little more pop, he probably won’t make it past AAA.
20 - James Robbins - 1B - Short-season A-ball - 6', 220 (20) - C/5 – The Tigers went over slot to lure Robbins away from college in the 30th round back in 2009, and the results have been mixed so far. Robbins has some real ability with the bat, but he’s an extremely aggressive, dead-pull hitter who pays the price for his indiscriminate hacking. He stings the ball when he makes contact, and he could be an average hitter if he can learn when to alter his approach, but after striking out 91 times in just 259 ABs last year, I have some serious doubts. Robbins does have legitimate plus power from the left side, and he can put on real shows in batting practice, but it hasn’t really translated to games yet. As a high-school pitcher, Robbins could run his fastball up to 90mph, but that plus arm strength isn’t terribly important at 1B. He’s more athletic than his body would suggest, and he shows the potential to be at least an average defender at first. He’ll begin the year as the everyday first sacker at West Michigan, but if he doesn’t make some strides with pitch recognition and plate discipline, he may not advance much further.
Names to Know
C – John Murrian, Julio Rodriguez, Gabriel Purroy 1B – Tony Plagman 2B – Alexander Nunez 3B – Javier Azcona SS – Hernan Perez, Alwin Delgado OF – Daniel Carranza, Edwin Gomez, Steven Moya, PJ Polk
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 8, 2014 13:44:04 GMT -5
My 2012 lists -
PitchersI was gonna post my list of the Tigers top prospects in the offseason thread, but I don't know if it really applies, and to avoid making it seem like I think I'm really important, I figured I'd tuck my rankings here in a catch-all thread. I've been sitting on the list of pitchers for a while, in the hopes that I'd finish my list of position players soon, but with the noise about Turner possibly getting traded, I figured I'd better toss this in here soon so I don't have to do any more work. Anyway, here goes:
The Tigers continue to have one of the thinnest systems in all of baseball, featuring only two elite prospects, a handful of players who could be MLB regulars if everything goes right, and about 30-40 kids who may or may not see time in the Majors as role players. The 2011 draft provided a bit of an infusion of position player talent, but the depth of talent is still largely missing.
I've gone through about a dozen different ways to rank prospects over the last few years, with letter codes and all that nonsense, but nothing really works any better than using traditional scouting terms (20-80 scale) and explaining what makes these kids prospects. To be clear, I don't think all the kids I'm listing are going to make the Majors, but sometimes players make inexplicable improvements, and I don't want to miss anybody. Note, the number in parenthesis is that player's age on Opening Day 2012.
1 - Jacob Turner - RHP - 6'5, 210 - (20)
2011 - Turner did nothing to tarnish his status as one of the best right-handed pitching prospects in the game last season, keeping his strikeout, walk, and hit rates in a good range, and more than holding his own in AA and AAA despite being among the youngest players at each stop. He was rewarded with three starts in the Majors, where he flashed both his promise and his inexperience.
The Good - Turner has everything scouts want in a starting pitcher, including a big body with a live fastball that sits 90-94 with plus movement and can rise to 96, a plus curve that can get him swings and misses, a changeup that flashes as a plus pitch, and even a cutter that he uses to help neutralize left-handers. He shows advanced control and command for such a young kid, and his mechanics are clean and repeatable.
The Bad - Turner still needs to refine his secondary pitches, particularly learning how and when to throw them in the strike zone, and scouts who saw Turner in the Majors weren't terribly impressed with his fastball, though they also thought he needed to use it more.
2012 - The Tigers will probably sign another veteran starter to fill out their rotation, but Turner will enter Spring Training with every chance to win the 5th spot in the rotation. If he doesn't join the Tigers immediately, he'll probably earn his way up by the All-star break.
Irresponsible Comparison - Tommy Hanson
2 - Casey Crosby - LHP - 6'5, 200 - (23)
2011 - Crosby had an up-and-down 2011, posting a sub 3.5 ERA through the first three months at AA before stumbling in July in August. That he pitched at all in 2011 is a good sign, though, as he has already missed two full seasons with arm trouble.
The Good - Crosby has rare velocity for a lefty, sitting around 94 and spiking up to 97, and he backs that up with a curveball that frequently flashes as a plus pitch, and a show-me changeup that could potentially be an average offering. His fastball has natural sink on it, helping him get a high number of ground outs, and he also generates a lot of swings and misses. Perhaps the most positive thing to take from his 2011 campaign is the fact that he threw 130+ innings.
The Bad - Crosby has never had great control, and it frequently abandoned him last year, as he walked more than 5 batters per 9 IP. Many scouts look at his velocity, wildness, injury issues, and questionable changeup and think Crosby is destined to be a reliever.
2012 - Crosby was added to the 40-man roster, and the Tigers sent him to the Arizona Fall League to get innings, perhaps to get prepared for a role as a reliever. He'll come into Spring Training with a miniscule chance at making the Tigers starting rotation, and a decent chance at making the bullpen. It's more likely, however, that the Tigers will continue to use him as a starter in Toledo. He has #2 starter potential if he manages to harness his control and refine his secondary offerings. I'd guess he'll get at least one start in the Majors, but he'll probably join the bullpen for good at some point after the All-star break.
Irresponsible Comparison - Derek Holland (starter)/Franklin Morales (bullpen)
3 - Drew Smyly - LHP - 6'3, 190 - (22)
2011 - Drafted in the 2nd round in 2010, Smyly didn't throw his first professional pitch until this season, but once he got going, he proved to be a nightmare for hitters. In 14 high-A starts, Smyly posted a 2.58 ERA and a K/BB ratio of nearly 4-to-1. The Tigers then bumped him up to Erie, where he was even better, mowing through hitters to the tune of a 1.18 ERA, and allowing only 32 hits and 15 walks in 45.2 innings while striking out 53.
The Good - Smyly's #1 asset is his command, which is already above-average and figures to be a plus tool as he progresses. He pitches off a 90-92 mph fastball that rarely spikes much higher, and he also has a quality, mid-80s cutter that helps him neutralize right-handed hitters. His ultimate ceiling is probably as a #3 starter, but it's more likely that he settles in as a decent #4-5 starter.
The Bad - The minor leagues are littered with control-and-command lefties who never quite figured out how to be crafty enough to consistently retire big-league hitters, and Smyly will need to refine his loopy curveball and below-average changeup to reach his potential.
2012 - Smyly is another prospect with an outside chance of making the rotation coming out of Spring Training, because his profile (back-end lefty) matches almost perfectly with what the Tigers want. He doesn't have a ton of pro experience yet, though, so the results against Major Leaguers could be a bit ugly, and I think it's more likely that he returns to the minors. He may start back in Erie, but he'll certainly be in Toledo at some point during the year, and he might have a shot at joining the Tiger's rotation late in the season.
Irresponsible Comparison - Travis Wood
4 - Andrew Oliver - LHP - 6'3, 210 - (24)
2011 - The season began well enough for Oliver, posting a low-3 ERA in 50+ AAA innings through April and May, and earning another shot in the Majors. He struggled in the Bigs once again though, and the wheels completely fell off upon his return to the Minors.
The Good - He still possesses a lively fastball that sits in the mid-90s and can hit as high as 98, and despite all his struggles, he still managed to strike out nearly a batter an inning in Toledo.
The Bad - Just about everything. The secondary stuff that gave him so much promise as a young collegian continues to be absent, and he lost all semblance of control once he returned to the minors, walking 80 and giving up 149 hits in 147 IP. Things weren't any better in the Arizona Fall League either, where he surrendered 11 ER on 19 hits and 16 BB in 17 IP.
2012 - Possibly the most volatile prospect in the system in terms of what he might do next year, Oliver will still have a shot to earn a spot in the Majors in Spring Training. However, it seems extremely unlikely that he'll head north with the Tigers. He obviously offers more value as a potential #3-4 starter than as a bullpen arm, but in my opinion, he needs to be moved into the bullpen, where he can concentrate on throwing his fastball for strikes.
Irresponsible Comparison - Jonathan Sanchez (starter)/Matt Thornton (bullpen)
5 - Brenny Paulino - RHP - 6'4, 170 - (19)
2011 - A Dominican native, Paulino made his stateside debut in the Gulf Coast League last year and acquitted himself very well in 8 starts, tossing both a 7-inning complete game and a 9-inning shutout, and striking out 10 GCL Blue Jays in a dominant 5-inning outing. He struck out a batter per inning along the way, and earned two starts in high-A that were part-reward, and part "we need someone to pitch."
The Good - Paulino has one of the most electric fastballs in the Tigers system, sitting in the 92-94 range and flashing as high as 98 at times. His lanky, 6'4 frame oozes projection, and it's not unreasonable to think he'll gain even more velocity as he fills out. And though his control still faltered at times last season, he took a major step forward by walking just 18 batters in 45+ innings this season, as compared to 45 batters in 46 innings in his professional debut. It's probably risky ranking him this highly because he's so far away, but there are few other players in the system who can match his potential as a #2 starter.
The Bad - Right now the kid is pretty much all fastball. He shows some feel for a curve, and some scouts project it to be an above-average pitch in time, but for now it isn't terribly good. Same goes for his changeup, which may never be more than an average pitch. His command still falters at times, as it did in his two high-A starts, where he gave up 9 walks and 13 ER in 5.1 IP. And he also had to miss some time with arm soreness, leading some to think his future is in the bullpen.
2012 - The Tigers have never been shy with promotions, so I wouldn't be shocked to see Paulino get sent to low-A West Michigan to begin next season. They also could hold him back until May or June to wait for the weather to get warm and keep his innings down, or they could just send him to short-season Connecticut. If all goes well, though, he'll be in Lakeland by 2013, and could be knocking on the door to the Majors the year after as a 21-year-old. Even if he goes one step a year, he'll be in the Majors at 23 or 24.
Irresponsible Comparison - Michael Pineda
6 - Bruce Rondon - RHP - 6'2, 250 - (21)
2011 - Working as the West Michigan closer all season, Rondon was effectively wild as he tore through the league's hitters, posting a 2.03 ERA while surrendering just 22 hits and striking out 61 batters in 40 innings. He also made an appearance in the Midwest League All-star game, where he was the only pitcher to hit triple digits on the radar gun.
The Good - Rondon has the best fastball in the system, a true 80 pitch that sits in the mid-to-high 90s and tops out at 100 with ridiculous movement due to his sidearm delivery. His slider often flattens out on him and spins in the zone, but when he commands it, it's a strikeout pitch with devastating break. With his huge frame, potential for two plus-plus pitches, and experience working in relief, Rondon profiles as a closer or setup man in the Majors, possibly as soon as 2013 IF he can manage to find his command.
The Bad -That's an awfully big IF, as Rondon walked 34 batters in his 40 innings last year. He consistently earns well below-average grades for both his control and his command, and he has the build of Bartolo Colon, so if he does manage to find the zone repeatedly, conditioning and maintaining his arm slot will always be an issue. At this point, it's hard to tell if Rondon is really retiring hitters with his stuff, or if batters are simply fearful for their life when they step into the box. He'll need to take some major steps forward if he ever wants to pitch above AA.
2012 - Rondon is right on schedule to work as Lakeland's closer in 2012, and as mentioned above, he can move as quickly as his command will allow.
Irresponsible Comparison - Henry Rodriguez (Nationals)
7 - Tyler Stohr - RHP - 6'2, 215 - (25)
2011 - Stohr missed almost all of 2010 with Tommy John surgery, but managed to come back strong in 2011, beginning the year in Lakeland before being promoted to Erie at midseason. Taken in the 6th round in 2008 out of North Florida, he's probably last hope for the much-maligned "Reliever Draft" that produced an All-star catcher in Alex Avila, a 4th outfielder in Andy Dirks, and the since-departed Ryan Perry. Cody Satterwhite and Scott Green have been ruined by injuries, Brett Jacobson was traded to the Orioles for Aubrey Huff, and Robbie Weinhardt completely flamed out.
The Good - Stohr still has a great arm, regularly pumping heat up to 95-96, and occasionally spiking all the way to 98. He also backs that up with an above-average slider that sometimes flashes as a plus pitch. He's aggressive on the mound, and has the perfect mentality to be a late-inning reliever, though probably no more than a setup man.
The Bad - Stohr still has trouble commanding his pitches, as seen by his 9 walks in 11.2 innings in the Arizona Fall League, and when his command is off he gets hit harder than he should. His delivery is a little wonky, and his injury history is at least mildly troubling.
2012 - He was added to the 40-man roster, so he'll have a chance to come north with the Tigers, but the odds are higher that he'll begin the year in the Toledo bullpen, possibly as their closer. He'll most likely see some time in Detroit during the season, barring a trade.
Irresponsible Comparison - Power fastball + inconsistent slider + iffy command = Ryan Perry
8 - Duane Below - LHP - 6'3, 220 - (26)
2011 - Drafted in the 19th round back in 2006, Below underwent Tommy John surgery in 2009, and finally saw the fruits of all his hard work and determination last season, when he made two spot starts (before the Fistering) and 12 relief appearances. He was either the best or 2nd best starter on Toledo's staff last year, and he held his own in the Majors.
The Good - Below throws a slightly above-average fastball for a lefty, sitting around 90-91 and occasionally jumping to 93, and he backs it up with a sweeping curve that flashes as a plus pitch, and a changeup that is fringe-average. He has solid control of all three pitches, and he battles on the mound.
The Bad - His stuff is underwhelming, leaving Below without a true out pitch, and though his control is solid, his command isn't what it needs to be for him to have consistent success as a starter.
2012 - Below will almost certainly head into next season as a relief-only prospect, and that's the role that probably suits him best, perhaps allowing him to get a little more juice behind his fastball. He still doesn't profile as much more than a swingman or long reliever, but he's basically there right now.
Irresponsible Comparison - Zach Duke
9 - Josue Carreno - RHP - 6'1, 210 - (20)
2011 - Signed out of Venezuela as a 16-year-old in 2007, Carreno made his full-season debut in 2011, posting a 7-10, 4.55 record in low-A West Michigan and throwing 124.2 innings. The performance wasn't quite in line with his scouting reports, but a .335 BABIP and a 3.19 FIP suggest that perhaps he was the victim of some bad luck (or as the case probably is, bad fielding).
The Good - Carreno doesn't have the elite velocity of many of his fellow Latino prospects in the system, but he has seen a bump in the last few seasons, and he regularly pitches in the low-90s. And unlike his big-armed countrymen, Carreno figures to stick as a starter because of a good curve that has plus potential, and a solid change that should be a Major League average pitch in time. He kept his homers down last year, and he shows a sturdy build that should be able to handle a starter's workload.
The Bad - Josue has solid control of all three of his pitches, but he still struggles to command his fastball, which hurts his ability to use his other pitches, and caused him to have a very up-and-down year (3.77 in April, 7.62 in May, 2.40 in June, 5.92 in July, 2.60 in Aug/Sep).
2012 - Despite the somewhat disappointing results in 2011, Carreno is right on track to spend a full season at Lakeland next year. If everything starts to click, it's not out of the question that he could move to Erie at the mid-season mark, but that seems unlikely. He profiles as a number 4 or 5 starter, with an outside shot of being a #3, and if he continues to move one level at a time, he'll be in Detroit as a 23-year-old.
Irresponsible Comparison - Guillermo Moscoso
10 - Austin Wood - LHP - 6'2, 195 - (25)
2011 - Drafted in the 5th round in 2009, Wood is famous for throwing 169 pitches in a single 13-inning relief outing for Texas, so it wasn't really a surprise when he missed almost all of 2010 with arm trouble. He bounced back in a big way last year though, authoring a 5-5, 3.16 line at AA, inducing a lot of ground outs, and striking out nearly a batter per inning.
The Good - Wood has an average fastball in the 89-91 range, but it plays up a bit because he has very good control and he throws from a nearly side-armed angle. He also features an above-average changeup to combat right-handed hitters, and having worked as a a closer for the Longhorns, he has the perfect demeanor to pitch in high-leverage situations.
The Bad - His stuff isn't going to blow anyone away, and Wood actually had more trouble with lefties (4.15 ERA) than right-handers (2.63 ERA) last season because he doesn't have a breaking ball to speak of. His injury history is still a slight concern as well.
2012 - Wood doesn't have a heck of a lot left to prove in the minors, though it certainly would help for him to develop a useable breaking ball. With the MLB roster being what it is, he's likely to be back in the bullpen in either Toledo or Erie, biding his time until a spot opens up. He profiles as a 6th- or 7th-inning guy, and he should maintain his ability to handle hitters from both sides of the plate.
Irresponsible Comparison - Aaron Laffey
11 - Alex Burgos - LHP - 5'11, 190 - (21)
2011 - A teammate of Carreno's at West Michigan, Burgos posted better numbers overall, but his stuff doesn't necessarily back up the results. A 5th-round-pick in 2010, Burgos was considered something of a reach, and he was held out of action until June to help gain strength. When he did see the field he was very effective, to the tune of a 6-5, 2.19 line, with 89Ks and 33 walks in 94.2 innings.
The Good - Burgos' best attribute is his pure pitching ability, showing above-average command of his pitches, and the skill to vary speeds and work the corners. His curve is his best pitch, getting some plus grades, but more likely settling in as a 55-grade pitch. Some reports had his fastball up a tick at times this year.
The Bad - Even with the reported uptick in velocity, Burgos would only have an average fastball, and he will more likely work in the 86-89 range. His changeup has some potential, but it still has a way to go, and Burgos has something of a slight, dumpy frame that doesn't project well for the future.
2012 - Burgos will head to Lakeland next season, and that will be a big test for him, because history is littered with command lefties who dominate in West Michigan, only to disappear at higher levels. If he does manage to get stronger, Burgos could possibly develop into a back-end starter, but it's far more likely that he ends up a reliever or swingman.
Irresponsible Comparison - J.P. Howell
12 - Kyle Ryan - LHP - 6'5, 190 - (20)
2011 - The third member of West Michigan's rotation to make this list, Ryan was a 12th-round pick in 2010, and may end up being a very nice find for the Tigers' scouts. In his first full professional season, he posted a very respectable 6-10, 3.15 line, with 99 strikeouts and 30 walks in 137 innings, all at the age of 19.
The Good - A tall, lanky kid, Ryan has the sort of frame scouts love, and he works with a decent three-pitch mix. His fastball is just an average pitch right now, sitting in the 87-90 range, but it's not out of the question to think that he may gain some more velo as he gets stronger. He shows some aptitude for spinning his curve, and it could develop into an above-average pitch in time. His changeup lags behind, but it could be an average pitch eventually. He also shows the ability to avoid the long ball and induce ground outs, which should help as he faces better hitters, and has better defenders behind him.
The Bad - Ryan has shown solid control, but like most younger pitchers he still needs to work on his command and location. And he has proven to be a bit inconsistent -- in his first three months his peripheral stats looked completely pedestrian, surrendering 95 hits and 34 ER with only 58 strikeouts (6.6 K/9) and 21 walks in 78.2 IP. But over his final 10 starts, he looked like a different pitcher, posting a 2.17 ERA and surrendering only 50 hits while striking out 51 and walking only 9 in 58.1 IP.
2012 - Ryan is a shoe-in to make the Lakeland rotation next year, and though he's very far away from reaching his potential as a #3 starter, he could possibly take a big step forward at any time, perhaps even reaching Erie. There's no hurry though, because the one-level-a-year approach would get him Detroit at 23, and if he can duplicate the results he had last year, I think the Tigers will be very happy.
Irresponsible Comparison - Jeff Francis with the upside of Matt Harrison
13 - Adam Wilk - LHP - 6'2, 180 - (24)
2011 - Wilk managed to sandwich three separate stints as a middle reliever for the Tigers around 18 very solid starts in Toledo in 2011, posting a 8-6, 3.24 line with 76 Ks and just 14 walks over 102.2 IP for the Mud Hens. He wasn't terribly effective in the Majors though, giving up 8 runs on 14 hits in 13.1 IP.
The Good - Wilk can throw four different pitches for strikes any time he pleases, featuring the best command and control of any pitching prospect in the system. His change-up is an above-average pitch, and he's not afraid to throw it in any situation.
The Bad - Wilk's fastball is well below-average, sitting in the 84-87 range as a starter, and scraping 89-90 as a reliever, and his slider and curve are also fringe-average pitches. With no true out pitch, and his tendency to pound the strike zone, Wilk is prone to giving up the long ball -- he actually gave up more homers last year (18) than walks (17).
2012 - Wilk is theoretically in the mix to become the Tiger's 5th starter, but it's much more likely that he returns to Toledo as the anchor of the Mud Hens rotation. There's a chance he could develop into a "crafty lefty," but his ceiling is probably that of a swingman, and he may be nothing more than a quad-A pitcher.
Irresponsible Comparison - Jeremy Sowers
14 - Luis Marte - RHP - 5'11, 200 - (25)
2011 - Marte was signed as an 18-year-old out of the Dominican Republic in 2005, and by 2008 he had established himself as one of the better starting pitcher prospects in the organization. He then battled injury and ineffectiveness for two years, assuming a permanent bullpen role on 2010. Something of a forgotten man heading into 2011, Marte re-established himself as a solid relief prospect by mowing down AA hitters to the tune of a 3-0, 1.70 line with 68 Ks and 18 walks in just 53 innings -- his final AA performance was a 3.2 inning gem in which he struck out 10 of the 14 batters he faced.
The Good - Marte has four useable pitches, indicating his past as a starter, and both his curve and slider have been, or figure to be plus big-league pitches. He also has solid command of all four pitches, and he knows how to set hitters up for the K.
The Bad - Marte's fastball was once a plus pitch, frequently touching 95, but now he sits in the 89-91 range. He's a small guy, so injuries will always be a concern, and he doesn't get much movement on his fastball, so he'll have to get by as something of a junkballer.
2012 - Marte finished the season as a middle reliever for the Tigers, and physically, there's no reason he can't take on that role full-time at some point next season, especially with Alburquerque out until the All-star break. He could be a decent trade candidate, but if not he'll likely begin the year in Toledo's bullpen. He's probably a 7th-inning guy at best, though he could also potentially be an emergency starter.
Irresponsible Comparison - Carlos Villanueva
15 - Matt Hoffman - LHP - 6'2, 200 - (23)
2011 - Signed out of an Oklahoma high school for an above-slot deal in the 26th round of the 2007 draft, Hoffman struggled with inconsistency for his first three years in the system, beginning as a starter but eventually moving to the bullpen. He performed well as a reliever in Toledo this year, sporting a 3.18 ERA in 62.1 innings spread across 49 appearances.
The Good - Hoffman's prospect status took a big jump when he hit 97 on the gun during the 2010 Arizona Fall League, and during any given appearance he can spike that high again. He also shows signs of an average-or-better curve, and apart from a rough stretch in 2009, he has done a good job of keeping the ball on the ground and in the park.
The Bad - His velocity is still quite inconsistent, more often sitting in the 91-93 range than in the 94-95 range, and his command of the fastball isn't where it needs to be. His control is also a bit spotty, perhaps part of the reason his strikeout numbers are a tad low (6.6 K/9), and with no real changeup he may have trouble retiring right-handed batters in the Majors.
2012 - Hoffman is another guy who is in the mix for a bullpen slot. But he just turned 23, and he could still use some refinement, so it's most likely that he'll return to Toledo. He's on the 40-man roster, so a hot start in AAA could easily earn him an early trip to Detroit. He could develop into a 7th-inning guy, or he could be used as a lefty specialist.
Irresponsible Comparison - Tony Sipp
16 - Jay Voss - LHP - 6'4, 200 - (24)
2011 - Voss was a JC draftee by the Marlins in the 8th round of the 2007 draft, and he came to the Tiger's system in the Nate Robertson trade back in 2010. He's had a strange career, in that he got shelled for two years as a starter for the Marlins, but turned into a solid relief prospect in his third season. Then he got shelled as a relief prospect for the Tigers, but turned things around last year when he returned to being a starter. He spent a few weeks in Lakeland before turning in 19 solid starts in Erie, going 9-7, 3.67 with 101 Ks and 37 walks in 115.1 IP.
The Good - Voss has a solid-average fastball that he throws in the 89-91 range, and it has spiked to 93 in shorter stints. His best pitch is a slider which occasionally flashes as a plus offering or better, and he's tall and lanky with sort of an over-the-top delivery that helps him keep the ball low in the zone.
The Bad - His stuff largely abandoned him in 2010, and that sort of inconsistency is always a bit troubling. His changeup lags behind his other offerings, and without improvement he'll probably be relegated to bullpen duty.
2012 - Voss is in line to start for the Mud Hens in 2012, and though he profiles best as a middle reliever, the Tigers would probably be best served keeping him as a starter for as long as possible. He could be an option as an emergency starter or bullpen arm this year.
Irresponsible Comparison - Will Ohman
17 - Brian Flynn - LHP - 6'8, 240 - (21)
2011 - The Tigers grabbed Flynn in the 7th round of the 2011 draft as a redshirt sophomore out of Wichita State. He's a huge kid who posted a 4.63 ERA in 83.2 innings for the Shockers last year before heading directly to West Michigan and tossing 67.2 more innings, finishing 7-2, 3.46.
The Good - With the build of a power forward and a fastball that can reach 95mph from the left side, Flynn can be very imposing on the mound. His slider and changeup both show flashes of being an average pitch.
The Bad - Given his size, it's not entirely unsurprising that Flynn's stuff fluctuates wildly. Sometimes his fastball won't climb much above 91, and when he throws it harder he can't locate it particularly well. His command is just as spotty with his secondary offerings, and neither pitch figures to be much of a weapon as he advances.
2012 - Flynn really got off to a solid start to his professional career, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him begin next season in the Lakeland rotation. He could also get moved to the bullpen, or even back to West Michigan if the Tigers make some significant alterations to his delivery. Like Cole Nelson before him, there's a chance some tinkering might help Flynn become more consistent, but in all likelihood he'll end up as a bullpen arm with really only one good pitch.
Irresponsible Comparison - Matt Thornton
18 - Melvin Mercedes - RHP - 6'3, 200 - (21)
2011 - Signed out of the Dominican Republic as a 17-year-old, Mercedes was making terrific progress as a reliever when he had to undergo Tommy John surgery last year. He came back this season to post respectable numbers in the New York Penn League, going 3-1, 2.67 with 3 saves over 33.2 innings, and his career appears to be back on track.
The Good - When fully healthy, Mercedes has a terrific fastball in the 91-94 range that peaks up to 96, and has devastating movement that helps him generate a ton of ground balls. He also shows signs of a true plus slider with two-plane break, and he has the demeanor and build to pitch in the late innings at any level.
The Bad - Mercedes never showed great command of his pitches, walking 77 batters in 118.2 IP, and command is usually the last thing to come back after Tommy John surgery, so it remains to be seen if he'll ever be able to reach his full potential. And despite his plus stuff, Mercedes has never struck out as many batters as he should, posting a pedestrian 6.7 K/9 in his career.
2012 - Mercedes has pitched in West Michigan in parts of the last three seasons, and he figures to begin 2012 there, probably as the Whitecaps closer. If he can regain his control, there's no reason to believe he won't move up to Lakeland at mid-season, and he could be knocking on the door to the Majors by late 2013. His ultimate ceiling is as a closer, but it's more likely that he develops into a 7th- or 8th-inning guy.
Irresponsible Comparison - Mike MacDougal
19 - Tommy Collier - RHP - 6'2, 205 - (22)
2011 - The Tigers grabbed Collier in the 22nd round of the 2011 draft, and there's a small chance that he turns into a bit of a scouting coup for them. He's from San Jacinto JC, which also produced Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, and Patrick effing Swayze, and Collier may have flown under the radar because he underwent TJ surgery in 2010. He was outstanding in his professional debut, going 4-1, 1.85 over seven starts in the NY Penn League.
The Good - Collier is a sinkerballer with an above-average fastball, typically sitting in the 91-93 range with good movement. He also has a very good changeup that has a chance to be a plus Major League pitch, a slider that has shown flashes of being a plus pitch in the past, and he also throws a curve.
The Bad - At this point the concerns with Collier are the basic concerns about any pitcher -- he needs to continue to refine his secondary pitches and improve his command. The previous injury is a small concern, and leads some scouts to think that perhaps his future is in the bullpen.
2012 - Collier will most likely begin the year in West Michigan, although there is a small chance he could be jumped up to Lakeland. With his solid arsenal and feel for pitching, Collier will most likely see some time in high-A during the year, and there's even an outside chance of him earning a start or two in Erie. It really all depends on if the Tigers want him to continue starting, and if they do, he has a chance to be a solid #4 starter.
Irresponsible Comparison - Charlie Morton
20 - Jose Ortega - RHP - 5'11, 185 - (23)
2011 - Ortega had as rough a 2011 as anyone in the organization last year, beginning the season injured and struggling mightily through 50 innings at Toledo. He sandwiched 25 awful innings around 25 solid innings, posting a 12.15 ERA in May and a 7.23 ERA in Aug/Sep, but a 3.38 ERA in June and a 3.86 ERA in August. He was also knocked around in a brief 5 inning stint in the Venezuelan Winter League.
The Good - Like Brayan Villarreal, Lester Oliveros, and Luis Marte before him, Ortega shows a live arm the belies his frame, showing a fastball in the mid-90s, and a sharp slider that flashes as a plus pitch.
The Bad - Ortega has below-average control, leading to a fair amount of walks, but his main issue is poor command. This, combined with his diminutive stature, results in an awful lot of balls left up in the zone and out over the plate, and that means he gives up far more hits (61) and homers (7) than he should, given his raw stuff.
2012 - He's still on the 40-man roster, so Ortega theoretically has a chance to earn a bullpen spot in Spring Training, but it's more likely that the Tigers will want him to conquer AAA hitters before they throw him into the fire in the Majors. If he can harness his command, his two potentially plus pitches make him an ideal candidate for high-leverage relief situations, possibly as a setup man.
Irresponsible Comparison - Jason Frasor
A few others to keep an eye on:
- Kevin Eichhorn - (22) - Control right-hander with average stuff and a #5 starter ceiling.
- Chad Smith - (22) - Picked in the 17th round this year, he blew out his elbow in April. When healthy, he has shown a plus fastball and slider.
- Ramon Lebron - (23) - Triple-digit fastball, no idea where it's going.
- Endrys Briceno - (20) - Tall, skinny kid with plus fastball and a long way to go. Position Players1 - Nick Castellanos - 3B - 6'4, 200 - (20)2011 - Castellanos fell to the Tigers in 2010 because of signability concerns, and he was rewarded with the richest contract ever for a "sandwich" round pick, garnering nearly $3.5 million. He got off to a brutal start in his first full professional season, posting a .179/.222/.209 slash line with 20 strikeouts in 19 April games. He then spent the next 4+ months absolutely tearing the cover off the ball, to the point where it became fairly apparent that he was too good to be in low-A. He finished the season with the 4th highest batting average in the Midwest League (.312), finished 2nd in doubles (36), 8th in RBI (76), 8th in total bases (221), and he led all of low-A ball with 158 hits. The Good - Castellanos has as pretty of a swing as you'll see from a right-handed hitter, and he has an innate ability to square up balls and spray line drives all over the field. He has a pure plus hit tool, and if he develops properly he'll post averages in the .290-.310 range on an annual basis. He has plus raw power, he should have at least average in-game power, and once he gets stronger and goes to better hitting environments, a fair amount of those 36 doubles will clear the wall. He's a big kid who has handled third base fairly well, he has solid athleticism, and he has terrific makeup. The Bad - Like many Tigers prospects before him, Castellanos has a fair amount of swing-and-miss in his game, finishing 9th in the Midwest League in strikeouts (130) with nearly one per game. He's still kind of a tall, skinny kid right now, and there are a number of scouts who think he may have to move to an outfield corner one day, perhaps soon. That puts more pressure on his bat, and there is some concern among scouts that the power won't ever fully develop. 2012 - Castellanos is a Florida kid, and it stands to reason that he'll begin next season in the Florida State League to continue his development. There's a fairly solid chance that once his power starts showing up a bit more, his strikeouts will go down a bit and his walks will climb, but that may not happen until he reaches the friendly hitting environments of the AA Eastern League. He'll have a chance to hit his way to Erie next year, and because it's the Tigers, he may even begin the season there. It's not out of the question that he might even see a cup of coffee in the Majors next season, though a 2013 timetable seems much more realistic. If he reaches his potential, Castellanos is a first-division regular who will threaten 30-100-.300 seasons and make a handful of All-star teams in his prime. Irresponsible Comparison - Aramis Ramirez 2 - Tyler Collins - LF - 5'11, 205 - L/L - (21)2011 - Collins was drafted in the 6th round in 2011 out of Howard (Texas) College, where he hit .488 with 19 HR, 82 RBI, 34 doubles, and 16 steals on the way to being named the National Junior College player of the year. He may have flown under the radar a bit because he transferred to Howard after a year at Baylor (where he hit .404 in 29 games), and he didn't sign until about a month after the draft because he was contemplating a transfer to TCU. Once he did sign, he continued knocking the cover off the ball in the short-season New York Penn League, where he hit .313 with 8 homers, 31 RBI, 6 steals, 10 walks, and 17 Ks in 42 games. The Good - Collins has at least average power, hitting ability, and speed, and all three tools are already well actualized (as opposed to raw) and have flashed as above-average fairly frequently. He likes to swing, but his solid approach at the plate helps him wait for a pitch to hit, and keeps him from expanding the zone too often. His power lends itself more to gap doubles and pull homers right now, but there's a good chance he can evolve a whole-fields approach in time. His speed works well out of the box, on the bases, and in the field. The Bad - Defense is the biggest issue for Collins. He's athletic and well built, but he lacks the range for center, and he doesn't have the arm for right, so he'll probably have to settle in as a defensively adequate left-fielder. With that profile, he'll have to continue to hit for both average and power, and some question his ultimate power ceiling. 2012 - I'm 50-50 as to whether Collins will begin in West Michigan or Lakeland next year, with my gut telling me he'll start in high-A. If he does start in low-A, I imagine it won't pose too much of a challenge for him though, and he'll probably spend a good portion of the year in high-A. If he continues to improve upon his already promising skills, he could find himself in the Majors in late 2013, and possibly challenging for a starting spot in 2014. Irresponsible Comparison - The outfield version of Alex Gordon, with less D 3 - Danry Vasquez - RF - 6'3, 170 - L/R - (18)2011 - Though the Tigers have been signing players from Venezuela for years, Vasquez represents the first real splash they've made with international free agents, as they gave him more than $1 million to sign as a 16-year-old in 2010. He rewarded their investment by skipping the Latin rookie leagues and jumping straight to the GCL, another first for the organization, and he held his own as a 17-year-old in his first pro season, posting a .272/.306/.350 slash line, with 7 walks and 34 Ks in 54 games. The Good - Like Castellanos, Vasquez has an innate ability to square up balls and make loud contact, and he projects to have a plus or even plus-plus hit tool, with the capability of posting averages close to or above .300 on a regular basis. He shows terrific batspeed, solid pitch recognition, and thus far, no discernible platoon split. There's a significant amount of projection when determining Danry's future power, but he has the ideal frame to add the muscle mass and strength to eventually hit for plus power. Vasquez also has the makings of a strong arm befitting his classic right-fielder profile. The Bad - Though he is presently a tick above average as a runner, Vasquez figures to slow down quite a bit as he fills out, and he'll probably have below-average speed at best. He didn't strike out an exorbitant amount, but he also didn't walk much, and that will need to improve for him to reach his full potential as a hitter. The rest of his issues simply come from being very young, and very far away from what he can become as a player. 2012 - Vasquez is on track to begin the year at West Michigan, which would put him on roughly the same developmental path as the best high-school players drafted each year. Depending on how he looks in the offseason, the Tigers may also choose to let him stay in extended Spring Training and spend half a season in the New York Penn League. If all goes well, though, he should be ready for Lakeland in 2013, Erie in 2014, and possibly challenge for a spot with the Tigers in 2015 as a 21-year-old. Irresponsible Comparison - Andre Ethier 4 - Rob Brantly - C - 6'2, 205 - L/R - (22)2011 - Detroit's 3rd-round pick in 2010, Brantly signed quickly that year and managed to get into more than 50 games for in low-A. He returned there last season and was among the top offensive performers in the league before earning a promotion to AA in late July. The Tigers also sent him to the Arizona Fall League, where he posted a very solid .388/.400/.490 slash line in 15 games. The Good - Brantly's best attribute is probably his plate coverage. That doesn't necessarily mean he draws a lot of walks, but he doesn't chase bad pitches very frequently (~12% K rate), and he tends to wait to swing until he gets a pitch he can drive. Brantly is strong and athletic, but he projects as more of a gap doubles hitter than a true power threat, and he doesn't figure to ever hit more than 12-15 homers a year in his prime. He has all the necessary qualities to be at least an average MLB backstop, showing solid mobility behind the plate and a strong arm. The Bad - Though he has a sound approach at the plate, Brantly's pure hitting ability will likely never make him more than an average hitter, and he'll probably settle in as a guy who hits between .240 and .260. His defense is adequate, but he still needs to work on calling games and his transfer is a bit slow, negating his above-average arm. 2012 - In a perfect world, Brantly would almost certainly return to Lakeland where he authored a .219/.239/.322 line in 39 games last year, but with the glut of Catching in the system, he may be forced to Erie sooner than he should be. He figures to be at least a MLB backup, possibly taking on that role in the second half of 2013, and if he can make some modest defensive improvements while maintaining his power and patience, he could be a solid everyday player. With Avila currently entrenched in Detroit, Brantly could become an attractive trade chip. Irresponsible Comparison - Brian Schneider 5 - James McCann - C - 6'2, 210 - R/R - (21)2011 - In 2010, the Tigers drafted Arkansas lefty Drew Smyly in the 2nd round, and last year they drafted his former battery mate James McCann in the same round. McCann played in 61 games for Arkansas, posting a .306/.388/.469 line with 6 homers and 24 walks against 26 strikeouts. He was one of Detroit's last draft picks to sign, so he didn't get into much professional action, seeing only about 50 plate appearance across the GCL and Midwest League. And no, he is not related to the Braves All-star catcher Brian McCann. The Good - This may sound funny, but just about everything, and almost nothing. McCann doesn't have one really standout tool, save for perhaps his defense, but he projects to be practically average across the board. He has a decent hit tool that could see him post averages in the .240-.270 range, he could hit 15-20 homers in his prime, he has a strong arm and a sturdy, athletic body that is prototypical for the position, and he even runs well for a catcher, though speed won't really be a part of his game. The Bad - As mentioned above, nothing about McCann really stands out, and any one of his tools could potentially falter. The one I'm most concerned about is his hit tool, because scouts aren't terribly impressed with his bat speed. His in-game power might also suffer as a result, which would make him a glove-only player. 2012 - McCann didn't fare so well in a very small sampling of games at West Michigan (.059/.132/.088 with 12 Ks in 9 games), but those numbers mean next to nothing, and he'll almost certainly begin the year in low-A ball again, with a chance to move up to Lakeland if he hits. He was generally considered a bit of an overdraft, as a lot of prognosticators had him going at least a round later, and in some cases many rounds later, but the Tigers think he'll at least be a Major League backup, with the chance to be a solid everyday player if he can keep his tools intact. If all goes well, he could see time in the Majors by 2014, and with a relatively high floor, he should also be a good trade chip. Irresponsible Comparison - Chris Iannetta 6 - Avisail Garcia - OF - 6'4, 230 - R/R - (20)2011 - Garcia is frustrating, but he has been at least consistently frustrating, and in 2011 he shook off a rough start (.213 in April) to post a solid .264/.297/.389 line as one of the youngest players in the Florida State League, and his 11 homers marked a personal best for him. The Tigers added him to the 40-man roster this Fall to prevent him from being taken in the Rule 5 Draft, which is a testament to his ability, but also somewhat strange, because the odds of him sticking on an MLB roster for a full season are extremely slim. His name is pronounced ave-e-cy-eel. The Good - Garcia has always been a toolshed, and he continues to offer tantalizing glimpses of his five-tool ability. He has plus raw power, a knack for making solid contact, and above average speed, to go along with terrific defensive ability and a rocket arm that fits perfectly for right field. The Bad - Garcia's approach remains abysmal, and in his career he has walked only 61 times compared to 356 strikeouts, in 401 games. The strikeouts wouldn't be a huge problem if he walked more or showed more consistent power, but his aggressive nature at the plate means he often falls behind in the count or makes weak contact on balls that he should leave alone. So his in-game power is average or even below average, and his hit tool is almost negated. Also, his speed will likely be just average when he matures 2012 - It wouldn't hurt Garcia at all to return to Lakeland for more seasoning, but the Tigers are always aggressive with their advancements, and Avisail figures to be among the youngest players in his league once again, this time playing for AA Erie. It will be a huge test for the kid, and I expect him to struggle mightily, though the short right-field fence in his home park may result in him hitting a few more bombs. If by some miracle Garcia manages to develop plate discipline, he has the potential to be a solid regular outfielder, though in all probability his faults will relegate him to backup duty, and it's certainly not unreasonable to think that he'll flounder against the better pitchers in AA and AAA. Irresponsible Comparison - Jeff Francoeur is probably his ultimate ceiling 7 - Tyler Gibson - OF - 6'2, 190 - L/R - (18)2011 - Ranked the 85th best prospect in the entire 2011 draft by Baseball America, Gibson' fell to the Tigers in the 15th round due to signability concerns. Negotiations went down to the wire, but the sides agreed on a $525,000 bonus along with some school-related expenses. Playing shortstop for the Stratford Academy just outside of Macon, Georgia, Gibson hit .469 with 7 homers and 23 steals in 29 games. He was only able to make it into 4 professional games after he signed, going 2/14 with 9 Ks. The Good - Gibson is exactly the sort of player the Tigers need to continue to sign to get their farm system back in shape. He's extremely athletic, with plus to plus-plus speed, a strong arm, and very good bat speed that allows him to show off his plus raw power, and what should be an average hit tool. The Bad - Gibson is extremely raw, as he hasn't really faced a ton of top-flight competition, so it may take him a while to get comfortable, and there's always the chance that he won't ever figure out how to hit professional-grade breaking balls. He has played some CF, but he's expected to slow down a step or two and be pushed to a corner, which puts more of a premium on him developing his bat. 2012 - The Tigers would love to get Gibson on the fast track and send him to West Michigan, but I really don't think he's ready for that given how raw he still is. I suspect he'll stay behind in extended Spring Training this year, and then head back to the Gulf Coast League or possibly the short-season New York Penn League for more seasoning. If he hits in West Michigan in 2013, he'll be on track to possibly see the Majors in late 2015, with a chance to fight for a starting job in 2016 as a 23-year-old. If he reaches his full potential, he could be a All-star lever outfielder capable of putting up multiple 20-20 seasons. Irresponsible Comparison - Colby Rasmus 8 - Aaron Westlake - 1B - 6'4, 235 - L/R - (23)2011 - If you go strictly on Baseball America's pre-draft rankings, Westlake was the best prospect the Tigers landed in last year's draft, getting the 59th ranked player in the third round with the 106th overall pick. After leading his Vanderbilt Commodores to the College World Series by hitting .344/.463/.640 with 18 homers (tied for the 10th best total in Division I), Westlake played in 32 professional games across two levels, posting an aggregate .250/.316/.379 with 3 homers, 12 walks, and 29 strikeouts. Fun fact: Westlake and Rick Porcello were both born on 12/27/1988. The Good - Westlake's calling card is his well-above average power. He doesn't have tremendous bat speed, but he's a very strong kid, and he's willing to wait for his pitch, which will likely always result in a lot of strikeouts, a good number of walks, and a fair share of long homers. Westlake also has a solid 45-50 hit tool that could see him posting averages in the .250-270 range in his prime. The Bad - A big, hulking kid, Westlake doesn't offer anything in the way of speed, and even though he has a strong arm, he isn't quite athletic enough to handle a move to another position. That is sort of a classic 1B profile, but it also puts a premium on his bat and specifically his power, so if pitchers learn to exploit his lack of elite batspeed, Westlake may never reach the Majors. 2012 - Westlake didn't rake in the New York Penn League like a polished college hitter is supposed to, but he was coming off a long college season, and we shouldn't put too much stock into a 30-game trial. He should probably spend at least half a season in West Michigan, but the Tigers may want to push him to Lakeland because he's already 23. If everything works out for Westlake, he could be a solid starting first baseman for a non-contender, but if he hits any significant bumps, he could wash out in the high minors. Irresponsible Comparison - Garrett Jones 9 - Jamie Johnson - OF - 5'9, 180 - L/R - (24)2011 - The Tigers drafted Johnson out of Oklahoma in the 7th round in 2009 as one of their classic, Midwestern gritmonsters. Johnson isn't all heart though, as he's one of the better athletes in the system and he has a lot of legitimate baseball skills. He began his carrer or a classic developmental path, spending the latter part of '09 in the New York Penn League and all of 2010 in low-A West Michigan, but last year the Tigers had him skip a level and report to Erie, where he posted a very respectable .275/.376/.378 line. He also hit .318 in an 18-game stint in the Mexican Pacific League this Winter. The Good - Johnson is as close to an ideal leadoff hitter as the Tigers have in their organization. He takes a patient, all-fields approach to the plate that should allow him to continue to rack up walks (84 in 137 games last year), and he has enough gap power make pitchers pay for challenging him. Johnson also has legit plus speed and he's one of the best defensive outfielders in the system, showing enough range to ably handle Center. The Bad - Johnson is a classic tweener, in that practically nothing he does really stands out. His plus speed works better in terms of legging out hits, taking an extra base, and fielding than it does on the bases (32 for 55 on career SB attempts). He strikes out a bit much for a guy who'll likely never hit more than 10 homers in his prime, and he'll turn 25 shortly after Opening Day. 2012 - Johnson isn't on the 40-man roster, but he's Leyland's type of player, and I can see him making a very positive impression in Spring Training. He'll head to Toledo to begin the year, manning either Center or Left, and likely the only way he sees time in the Majors in 2012 is if Austin Jackson gets hurt. I'm probably higher on Johnson (TWSS) than just about anyone, mostly because of his on-base skills, but even I concede that without a real jump to either his power or SB success rate, he's nothing more than a 4th outfielder. Irresponsible Comparison - Brett Gardner (minus the elite speed) 10 - Brandon Loy - SS - 6', 190 - R/R - (21)2011 - The 5th 2011 draftee to make this list, the Tigers doled out a little extra cash to land Loy out of Texas. He helped his Longhorns make the College World Series, posting a .342/.419/.461 line and leading his team with 23 doubles and 19 steals. He signed in time to get 17 games in across two levels, and he hit .250 with 2 doubles, 9 walks, 10 strikeouts, and a steal. The Good - Loy's calling card is his defense, which is practically Major-League ready right now, thanks to terrific instincts, a strong arm, and good range. Loy is also an above-average to plus runner, though he may not steal many bases, and he combines solid plate discipline with a knack for making contact. The Bad - There is almost no power to Loy's game, and because pitchers probably won't be afraid to challenge him, offense in general won't be a big part of his game. If he loses a step or cant adjust to the speed of the pro game, then he won't be much of a prospect. 2012 - The Tigers have three young shortstops for whom they'd love to get regular playing time, so despite his age and lack of professional experience, it's not out of the question that Loy actually begins the year in AA Erie. If that happens and he manages to hold his own, Loy could be right on pace to take over for Jhonny Peralta in 2014. Irresponsible Comparison - Brendan Ryan 11 - Daniel Fields - OF - 6'1, 200 - L/R - (21)2011 - Fields came into 2011 as one of the most promising players in the entire system, having skipped low-A altogether and still managing to hold his own in high-A against much older and more experienced players. But when he repeated high-A last year, just about everything fell apart, and his numbers went down across the board. The Good - Fields is still one of the best athletes in the system, and he has enough power, patience, and speed to develop into an everyday left fielder in the Majors, if he can refine his hit tool. The Bad - The hit tool remains the biggest stumbling block for Fields, as he swings and misses far too much, and he has real issues recognizing breaking balls. Everything about Fields is still a work in progress, as his troubles squaring the ball mean he can't really unleash his in-game power, and his above-average speed has largely been neutralized by poor instincts on the bases and in the field. He also had a strong arm as a high-school shortstop, but he has had real trouble adjusting his arm angle to playing the outfield. 2012 - Fields will head to Lakeland for a third full year of action, which is never a good sign for a prospect. The good news is that he is still relatively young for the league, and if he can somehow start actualizing his tools, he could climb near the top of this list relatively quickly. The most important thing for him is to hit, because if he doesn't, the Tigers' $1.7 million investment will have been for naught. Irresponsible Comparison - Eric Hinske 12 - Hernan Perez - 2B - 6', 160 - R/R - (21)2011 - Perez is one player who improved his stock within the organization last year. He repeated in low-A, posting a .258/.314/.364 line with 8 homers and 23 steals. Perez struggled down the stretch, but his numbers were bolstered by a hot April/May in which his OPS was over .800, and the Tigers believe he made some real strides over the course of the season. They sent him to the Arizona Fall League, where he hit .302 in 18 games, and in November the Tigers added Perez to the 40-man roster. The Good - Perez is a solid all-around player who stands out mostly for his defense. He's good enough with the glove to handle shortstop, but he profiles a bit better at second, where he could become a plus defender in time. With good bat speed, a solid idea of the strike zone, and enough power to drive the ball, Perez could eventually post averages in the .275 range in his prime. He has slightly above-average speed that plays up a bit due to great instincts, and he could possibly steal 10 or more bases a year. The Bad - Though he has some strength in his frame, Perez is unlikely to ever offer more than average power. Other than that, it's just sort of a waiting game to see how he handles himself in high-A and above. 2012 - Perez is ready for high-A, and that's almost certainly where he'll end up, but considering he held his own in the Arizona Fall League, a small part of me thinks the Tigers might get aggressive and send him to Erie. Depending on which path the organization takes, Perez could see the Majors as soon as next year, or perhaps be ready to take over at second in 2014. He profiles as at least a utility player, and if he hits, he should be a solid everyday second baseman. Irresponsible Comparison - Omar Infante 13 - Dixon Machado - SS - 6', 140 - R/R - (20)2011 - The Tigers signed Machado as 16-year-old out of Venezuela, and he came stateside for half-a-season in 2010 before making his full season debut last year at West Michigan. He posted a rather anemic .235/.314/.247 slash line, but the Tigers sent him to the Arizona Fall League anyway, and he hit only .118 with 19 Ks in 20 games, though he did have a big RBI single in the championship game. The Good - Machado is a classic Tigers glove-first shortstop, and he showcases terrific quickness, excellent hands, and a very strong arm. He's also a plus runner, with solid base-stealing instincts, and despite his low-average, Machado has a knack for making contact and a good idea of the strike zone. The Bad - I made this animated gif specifically with Machado in mind: And unfortunately, it's frighteningly close to reality. Machado is built like a 12-year-old, and he offers literally zero power - he managed three (3!) extra base hits in 429 at-bats last year. Unless he can get significantly stronger, maybe to the point where he could at least hit a few gappers, Machado will never post a high average. 2012 - As I mentioned in the Loy profile, the Tigers have three shortstop prospects for whom they'd love to get a full season of ABs, so while another season at West Michigan certainly wouldn't hurt Machado, he'll most likely be heading off to Lakeland. I have to believe that Machado will be able to add a little bit of strength eventually, and if he does, his glove and speed would play very nicely at the back of the Tigers order. If he doesn't, then he'll probably flame out in AA. Irresponsible Comparison - Rafael Belliard 14 - Bryan Holaday - C - 6', 205 - R/R - (24)2011 - Lauded for his defense and leadership as a senior at TCU, the Tigers drafted Holaday in the 6th round in 2010, and he got his feet wet with 44 games at high-A Lakeland. He began last year as the primary catcher at AA Erie, where he posted a .242/.304/.361 line in 95 games, with 7 homers and 27 walks against 76 strikeouts. The Good - Holaday still wins marks for his defense, where he shows plus arm strength (caught 34% of basestealers), and he exhibits the sort of leadership that might make him a managerial candidate one day. He also has solid power, and he could hit 10-15 homers in his prime if given a full season of at-bats. The Bad - Holaday's defense wasn't quite as elite as advertised, and the rest of his game is fairly sub-par. He'll never post high averages because he isn't terribly good at making contact, particularly on breaking balls, and while he's not a Molina, he's slow even for a catcher. 2012 - The Tigers are suddenly flush with Catchers, with Avila at the Majors, and Brantly, McCann, Holaday, Curt Casali, Gabriel Purroy, Patrick Leyland, Gabriel Tenia, and Jose Ovalles all worthy of getting regular at-bats somewhere in the system. Holaday is the closest to being ready though, and while he might not be the best option to be the regular catcher in Toledo, he may find himself in that role. He has never profiled as anything more than a backup, and he's still on track to possibly fill that role for the Tigers in 2013. Irresponsible Comparison - Vance Wilson 15 - Ryan Strieby - 1B - 6'5, 235 - R/R - (26)2011 - After struggling with injuries for three full seasons, and enduring an unsuccessful attempt at a position switch, Strieby was finally able to get in a full slate of games in 2011, getting more than 120 starts at his natural position for the first time since 2007. He managed to hit .254 with 19 homers, but he also struck out 170 times, good for 30% of his at bats - a sizable jump over his previous career numbers. The Good - Strieby still offers some of the best power in the system, with legit 60-65 grade raw power to all fields and the ability to bring that power with him to games frequently. He also has a decent hit tool that could see him post averages around .250 or higher, with the added bonus of decent on-base skills. The Bad - As mentioned above, Strieby can't play any other positions, and he's really only passable as a first baseman. He's a slow runner, his strikeout woes at AAA don't portend good things for him in the Majors, and he'll turn 27 this August. 2012 - Lingering wrist issues may have caused Strieby to miss his brief window to make the Tigers, getting removed from the 40-man roster last month, clearing waivers, and not getting selected in the rule-5 draft -- suggesting he isn't particularly coveted by anyone. With Victor Martinez's injury, the window may have opened a little bit, but the Tigers are much more likely to go after an established hitter to be their DH (and they just signed the very similar Brad Eldred today). A hot start might get noticed though, and if he can cut down on the whiffs he could be a decent 1B option on a non-contender. Irresponsible Comparison - Kyle Blanks 16 - Eugenio Suarez - SS - 5'11, 155 - B/R - (20)2011 - One of the Tigers free agent signings out of Venezuela in 2008, Suarez spent two years in the Venezuelan Summer League before making his stateside debut last year, first in a very successful 12 game stint in the Gulf Coast League, and then as one of the youngest players in the New York Penn League. He finished the season with a cumulative line of .266/.338/.464 with 7 homers and 11 steals in 70 games. The Good - Though he posted some impressive offensive numbers, particularly with regard to his surprising power surge, Suarez is mostly going to get noticed because of his defense. He's not quite as gifted as Loy or Machado, but he still projects as a plus defender with good range to both sides and soft hands. He also has at least average speed - maybe a tick above - and he's a versatile enough to play just about anywhere on the diamond. The Bad - Though he has that surprising power, Suarez still has a small frame, as well as an aggressive approach that will likely prevent him from hitting for much of an average or hitting many homers. 2012 - Suarez is the third shortstop for whom the Tigers want to get regular at bats, and he's probably ready to take on low-A pitchers, so he figures to play everyday in West Michigan. However, there is a chance that, given his defensive versatility, the Tigers may push Suarez to 2B so Machado can repeat in low-A. It's Suarez's glove that may make him a MLB utility player one day, but there's still a small chance that he can refine his offensive game to the point where he's an everyday infielder. Irresponsible Comparison - Ramon Santiago 17 - Jason King - 3B - 6', 215 - B/R - (22)2011 - King was the Tigers third pick in the 2011 draft (4th round) as a redshirt Junior out of Kansas State. He led his team in just about every major offensive category, including average (.326), homers (10), doubles (19), and RBI (59). He also threw in 16 steals for good measure, but he may have flown a bit under the radar in part because he missed his 2010 season with Tommy John surgery. He signed quickly and played in 53 games in the New York Penn League, posting a .251/.341/.415 slash line with 6 homers and 6 steals, before he tore his ACL in a collision at first base. The Good - King is an athletic kid who brings a bit of everything to the table, but he's probably most notable for his power potential, which could be above-average from both sides of the plate. He also offers at least average speed and good instincts on the basepaths, and he shows some ability to hit for average, as well as a decent idea of the strike zone. The Bad - Scouting reports on his defense are varied, but King is probably unlikely to stick at 3rd for the long term, which as we've discussed, puts more pressure on his bat. He's athletic enough to handle an outfield corner, but he'll have to fully actualize his power and hit tools to become more than a 4th outfielder. He's had two fairly significant injures already, and while they are both sort of fluky, he's missing some key developmental time. 2012 - The knee injury will almost certainly keep King out until the middle of the season, and while he would be ticketed for West Michigan, the Tigers may choose to send him back to the NYPL to get back into game shape, and then skip him to Lakeland in 2013. He offers an interesting set of skills, and if everything works out he could become an above-average Major Leaguer, but he may have to spend at least three full years in the minors to reach his potential. Irresponsible Comparison - Aaron Boone 18 - Steven Moya - OF - 6'6, 220 - L/R - (20)2011 - Another of the Tigers' 2008 free agent signings out Venezuela, Moya spent a year in the Dominican Summer League before coming stateside in 2010 to play in the GCL. He appeared lost that year, but he made enough strides to get bumped to low-A West Michigan for his first full season of baseball. His line is nothing if not eye-popping, though mostly in the bad way - .204/.234/.362 with 13 homers and 12 walks against 127 strikeouts in just 86 games. The Good - Moya stands out as the player with the most raw power in the entire system, earning legit 70 grades, or even higher, and showing some capacity for translating that power into games. He's still gangly and awkward right now, but he has shown decent defensive aptitude, and he has a strong enough arm to man right field. The Bad - Obviously the extremely low average and huge number of strikeouts stand out, though this isn't necessarily an indication of a terrible hit tool. Moya struggles with pitch recognition - his bats are afraid of curveballs - and his giant strike zone doesn't help him much. He has average speed right now, but you have to figure a 6'6 20-year-old is going to fill out some more, and there's a chance he may have to move to first base down the line if he slows down too much. 2012 - Moya still has a really long way to go, and even though these sort of high-power low-average prospects almost never pan out, the Tigers will (and should) continue to give him as many at bats as possible in the off chance that he starts to figure things out. He'll almost certainly return to West Michigan for a second season, where he'll need to improve across the board to continue as a prospect. If by some miracle everything comes together, he could be a monster cleanup hitter capable of hitting 30 or more homers every season. Irresponsible Comparison - Russell Branyan 19 - Harold Castro - 2B - 6', 145 - L/R - (18)2011 - Signed in the same free agent class as fellow Venezuelan Danry Vasquez, Castro took the more traditional route than Vasquez, staying at home for his first season of professional baseball. He played in 63 games in the Venezuelan Summer League, posting a very respectable .313/.352/.365 line with 11 extra-base hits and 24 steals in 31 tries. He also played in 30 games for the Tigers' affiliate in the Venezuelan Liga Paralela, where he hit .287 and added 5 more extra-base hits and 8 more steals. The Good - Information on Castro is a bit tough to come by, but early reports are that he projects to have a bit more offense than the typical infielder the Tigers sign from Latin America. Castro's hit tool gets the most mention, as he is said to have a knack for making good contact with a short, quick left-handed swing. He also gets his share of infield hits thanks to plus speed, which he also uses pretty well on the basepaths. He has all the requisite tools to be a solid defensive second baseman. The Bad - He has a chance to hit for modest power, but with his small frame it's unlikely that Castro will ever hit more than 8-10 homers in a season, and he's fairly aggressive at the plate, which more advanced pitchers may be able to exploit. His defense is fine for second, but he probably can't handle shortstop or third at higher levels, so if he doesn't hit he probably won't be able to fall back on a future as a utility man. 2012 - From a baseball perspective, Castro did everything the Tigers could have hoped in his first professional year. That makes him a terrific candidate to come stateside and be the starting 2nd baseman for the GCL Tigers. However, a lot goes into the decision to bring a kid to America, including language and maturity, so I can't say for sure if he'll make it here. At his age, his career could go in a thousand different directions, but if he reaches his full potential he could possibly be a solid #2 hitter. Irresponsible Comparison - Mickey Morandini (going back a bit on this one) 20 - Adelin Santa - 3B - 6'1, 190 (or 6'3) - R/R - (16?)2011 - Santa was the highest profile foreign signing for the Tigers this year, garnering a $750,000 bonus out of the Dominican Republic. There are conflicting reports about his size, and I'm not sure if he will be 16 or 17 by Opening Day next year (also, he's Dominican, so he could already be 21). The only stats I could dredge up for him consist of 19 at-bats in the International Prospects League, a league in the DR designed to showcase young players. He managed 5 hits in the 19 at bats, including a homer and 6 strikeouts. The Good - The Tigers see two potential plus-or-better tools in Santa's arsenal, headlined by his raw power. He has a big frame, and he takes powerful cuts that generate good loft and backspin. Santa's other plus tool is his strong arm, which would play perfectly if he manages to stay at 3rd. The Tigers also see some potential to hit and field, but he's still extremely raw in both areas. The Bad - Santa has been described as having a bad body, which basically means he's big and dumpy, and he'll need to make some big strides with his conditioning to get that under control. He's already a slow runner, and if he fills out much more he could be a real base clogger. It's also difficult to see him sticking at 3rd for the long run, which means he may have to move to first base down the line, once again putting a premium on his hitting and power. 2012 - If Castro's career could go in a thousand different directions, Santa's could go in a million. He is yet to see a professional pitch, so it's most likely that he'll begin his career in either the Venezuelan Summer League or the Dominican Summer League. There's an outside chance the Tigers could bring him stateside to begin getting his professional instruction in Lakeland, but the only player they've ever done that with is Danry Vasquez, and he's light-years ahead of Santa with the bat. If everything works out perfectly, 5-7 years from now Santa could be a middle-of-the-order masher. Irresponsible Comparison - Phil Nevin ----------------------------------------------- I went more with upside in these last few guys, but there are a handful of other players who are worth keeping an eye on: Curt Casali - C - Like Holaday, he has a chance to be a plus defensive catcher with some pop. James Robbins - 1B - Tons of power but an abysmal approach. Dean Green - 1B/DH - Massive kid (6'4, 260) with no defensive profile who must hit a ton to advance. He has a chance to. Brandon Douglas - 2B - Second baseman who doesn't do much but hit. Could be the next Will Rhymes. Audy Ciriaco - 3B - Still toolsy, still just 24. Could be the everyday 3B in Toledo. Brett Harrison - 3B - Overslot signee in the 18th round sticks out mostly for his D, but has some offensive projection. Could see some time in low-A as a 19-year-old. Wade Gaynor - 3B - 2009 3rd-rounder struggled mightily in high-A. Huge developmental year that could see him start to play other positions. Cale Iorg - SS/UTIL - Out with an injury, Iorg has been a huge disappointment, but he still has tons of tools. Javier Azcona - IF - Toolsy kid who hasn't quite figured anything out yet.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 8, 2014 14:13:41 GMT -5
2013 Pitching Prospects (1/27/13)
The thread for all things related to the Tigers Minor League system. How about we start with my list of the best prospects in the system? These rankings are almost entirely based on info I've been able to gather through various online and print publications. I try to see these kids when I can, but I'm no scout. I decided to copy my format from last year because it seemed to be pretty simple and effective. That means I’ll once again be using traditional scouting terms (20-80 scale) to describe skills and explain what makes these kids prospects, and I’ll be listing the top 20 position players and the top 20 pitchers in the system, despite the fact that most of them will never see any time in the Majors. I should also say that the Tigers once again have a bottom-10 farm system, and really, I’d rank them as one of the 4-5 weakest systems in baseball. BUT, you never know what can happen. Note - the number in parenthesis is that player's age on Opening Day 2013. One new feature this year – a quick review of my rankings from last year: Pitchers1 – Jacob Turner – Traded to Marlins 2- Casey Crosby 3 – Drew Smyly - Majors 4 – Andrew Oliver – Traded to Pirates 5 – Brenny Paulino 6 – Bruce Rondon 7 – Tyler Stohr 8 – Duane Below- Majors 9- Josue “Marcelo” Carreno – Traded to Cubs 10- Austin Wood - Retired 11- Alex Burgos 12- Kyle Ryan 13- Adam Wilk – Sold to South Korean team 14- Luis Marte 15- Matt Hoffman 16- Jay Voss – Taken by the Cardinals in the AAA Rule V Draft 17- Bryan Flynn – Traded to Marlins 18- Melvin Mercedes 19- Tommy Collier 20- Jose Ortega Overview – The pitching in this organization is very weak. I count three legitimate prospects, with the guys ranked 4-20 being essentially interchangeable. There are some guys with interesting upside, but for the most part it’s just a bunch of middle relievers. 1 - Bruce Rondon - RHP - 6'3, 265 - (22)2012 - Rondon has always had one of the livest arms in all of minor-league baseball, but he didn’t figure to have much of an MLB future without his command taking a giant step forward. And while no one will confuse him for Greg Maddux any time soon, Rondon managed to harness his elite stuff enough to shoot through the system. In 53 IP across three levels he put together a 2-1, 1.52 line with 29 saves and 66 Ks against 26 walks. He also made 18 more appearances as a closer in the Venezuelan Winter League, going 4-1, 4.41 with 19 Ks and 6 BBs in 16.1 IP. He gave up 16 hits and 8 ER, but 9 of those hits and 7 of the runs came in two rough outings. He was pretty much untouchable otherwise. It’s pretty rare for a reliever to be the top pitching prospect in any system, but Rondon is a legit top-100 prospect who has a chance to be an elite closer in the Majors. The Good - It all starts with Rondon’s fastball, which is utterly ridiculous. He sits at 98 with heavy movement down and in to right-handers, resulting in plenty of Ks and ground outs, and he’ll reach triple digits multiple times in every outing, with reports out of Venezuela having him hitting 105 several times. I’m skeptical about that, but he’s definitely got 102, and that’s hard enough. He also throws a slider and a changeup, and both flash as plus pitches occasionally. He’s never gonna be a guy who paints the corners, but after walking 34 in 40 IP last year, his 32 walks in roughly 70 IP is a marked improvement. He also has the ideal mentality for a closer too – he wants to embarrass people, and he’s not at all afraid to throw at or near batters if he doesn’t like them. The Bad - Despite his improved strike-throwing ability, there’s a good chance that Rondon will always suffer bouts of wildness, and his secondary pitches aren’t terribly consistent, so he may be in for some spectacular implosions, particularly if he faces a lot of left-handed hitters. Scouts worry about his conditioning and work ethic, and there’s not really a better way to say this, he’s kind of a dick – he’s never been terribly attentive regarding coaches and instruction, and he’s pretty fond of Valverde-esque mound theatrics. 2013 - There doesn’t appear to be a bigger fan of Rondon’s than Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski, and all reports are that the kid will be given every chance to win the closer role in spring training. I feel like he’ll spend approximately half of the season as the closer…I’m just not sure which half it will be. If he takes another step forward like he did last year, he could be an All-star as a rookie. If he spends the whole year as the closer I’d expect something along the lines of 30 saves and an ERA close to 4, but I expect the Tigers will pick up an experienced closer at some point, or use Dotel/Benoit/Coke/Alburquerque. Irresponsible Comparison - Jonathan Broxton 2 - Casey Crosby - LHP - 6'5, 225 - (24)2012 - Crosby has been in the system for 6 years at this point, so fans can be forgiven if they get a little “prospect fatigue” when they hear about him, but he still remains a legitimate prospect. With his injury history (two full seasons lost to arm trouble) it’s always a good sign for him to get in a full season of starts, and he has now topped 25 starts and 130 innings in consecutive years. He spent the majority of 2012 in AAA, essentially duplicating his 2011 AA numbers by going 7-9, 4.01 with 112Ks, 65 BBs, and 112 hits allowed in 125.2 IP. His first half of the season was considerably better than his second half, so perhaps he got tired down the stretch. He also picked up 3 spot starts in the Bigs when the Tigers were having some injury trouble, notching his first MLB win with 3 ER over 5.1 against the Indians. The Good - Crosby still offers above-average velocity from the left side, though he dialed it down last year in an attempt to gain better control. His fastball sat at 90 in the Majors, though it spiked up to 95, and in the past he has been a guy who sits at 92-93 and spikes to 97. His fastball also has some natural sink on it, allowing him to generate a good number of ground balls. His mid-70s curveball has good break and he can generally throw it for strikes, giving him a second potential plus pitch. His changeup probably won’t be better than a 45-grade pitch, but he isn’t afraid to use it. He’s a big, athletic kid who had an offer to play WR at Illinois, and he’s a terrific competitor on the mound. The Bad - It’s all about command and consistency for Crosby. For him to reach his ceiling of a #3 starter, he needs to throw more strikes and gain some consistency with his secondary pitches. I’m doubtful that he’ll ever have anything better than below-average control because he doesn’t always repeat his delivery very well, tending to open up his shoulder too soon. His delivery and his history also make me think that injuries may always be a concern for him. 2013 - It behooves the Tigers to keep Crosby as a starter for as long as possible, and while he’s 24, he’s roughly two years younger than that in terms of his development, so spending another full year in AAA isn’t a bad thing. He’ll have a chance to win a spot in the rotation in spring training, but I give him about a .01% chance of beating out Smyly AND Porcello. However, there will almost certainly be a need for some SP depth at some point this year, and he’ll likely be called on in such an instance. I still think his ultimate role is in the bullpen, where he can let his fastball loose a bit more and scrap his changeup. If he does move to the bullpen, he could potentially be a solid setup man. He’s also a pretty good bet to get traded at some point in 2013. Irresponsible Comparison - The 2012 version of Ricky Romero (starter)/ Jeremy Affeldt (reliever) 3 - Jake Thompson - RHP - 6'4, 235 - (19)2012 - The first of many 2012 draftees on this list, Thompson was Detroit’s top selection, coming in the 2nd round (91st overall) out of Rockwall-Heath High School in Rockwall, Texas. He signed early enough to get into professional action, posting a 1-2, 1.91 line with 14 hits, 10 walks, and 31 Ks in 28.1 IP over 7 starts. The Good - Thompson isn’t quite the classic Texas fireballer, but he throws a heavy fastball in the 88-92 range, spiking up to 94, and he backs it up with a promising slider that has a chance to be a plus pitch, a developing changeup, and he shows solid control of all three pitches for a high schooler. He’s a big, strong kid who was also going to play 1B in college, and he’s a hard worker who competes on the mound. The Bad -It’s a bit early to say anything definitive about the kid, but the early thinking is that Thompson has basically done all the growing he’s gonna do, so there isn’t much room for projection, limiting his ceiling to that of a workhorse #3/4 starter. It’s certainly possible that he can gain a few ticks on his fastball, but it’s also not terribly uncommon for guys his size to lose a little velo as they rack up innings. Other than that, the concerns are the same as with any young pitcher – can he refine his secondary offerings and continue to develop command? 2013 - I never want to make definitive statements, but I’d be pretty surprised if Thompson isn’t starting every 5th day in West Michigan next year. Unless he dominates the league, or gets shelled, I’d expect him to stay there all year. It’s also possible that they hold him back in extended spring training until short-season A-ball begins in June. If all goes well and he moves a level at a time, he’s looking at a chance to reach the Majors in 2016 as a 22-year old. Obviously, there are a lot of things that can happen between now and then. Irresponsible Comparison - Joe Blanton 4 - Tommy Collier - RHP - 6'2, 205 - (23)2012 - A 22nd rounder in 2011 out of San Jacinto JC (which I remind you is the alma mater of Patrick Swayze), Collier looks to be a solid scouting find for the Tigers. He was terrific in his short-season debut in 2011, and just as good in low-A last year, finishing 9-8, 2.74 with 84 Ks, 37 BBs, and 112 hits allowed over 124.2 IP. The Good - Collier’s best pitch is his sinking fastball that he throws in the 91-93, but he also shows signs of having two solid secondary offerings in his slider and his changeup. Before his TJ surgery in 2010, there were reports than his slider was a plus pitch, and I’ve also seen some reports that his changeup flashes as a plus pitch at times. Despite his previous arm trouble, he has a sturdy build and clean mechanics, and he’s the sort of kid who wants to throw a complete game every time he takes the mound. He ceiling is that of a #4/5 starter, but he has a solid chance of reaching that ceiling. The Bad - Nothing about Collier really jumps out as a huge plus, and I’m not sure how much I buy the reports about his plus secondary stuff, given his low strikeout numbers in low-A. My other key concern is that polished college guys who know how to mix their pitches almost always have success in the Midwest League, and about 90% of the time they falter against better competition. 2013 -The Tigers promote prospects more aggressively than just about every organization in the Majors, but they almost always keep their recent draft picks in West Michigan for a full season. Collier did his time in low-A last year, and is a virtual lock to begin this year in the Lakeland rotation – but I know that the Tigers like his three-pitch mix and competitiveness, and the organization needs some pitching depth in the high minors, so he has an outside chance of beginning the year in AA. Even if he doesn’t start in Erie, he has a chance to pitch his way there by July. Irresponsible Comparison - Kevin Correia 5- Drew VerHagen - RHP - 6'6, 230 - (22)2012 - Like Thompson, VerHagen is a big, strong Texan who went to Rockwall-Heath High School and was taken in last year’s draft (4th round). His path to pro ball was serpentine, starting at Oklahoma as a Freshman, sending him to the Junior College World Series as a Sophomore at Navarro JC, and finishing up his college career at Vanderbilt as a Junior. His 3.50 ERA led the Commodores last year as he bounced between starting and relief, where he finished 6-3 despite striking out only 37 and walking 28 in 69.1 IP. The Tigers gave him about $100K more than the suggested slot to get him, and he got into 10 games of pro action, going 0-3, 3.48 with 19Ks, 14 BBs, and 25 hits allowed over 31 IP in rookie ball and high-A. The Good - VerHagen is a big, imposing pitcher on the mound, and he has a fastball to back up his profile, pumping heavy sinkers in the 92-94 range, and getting his 4-seamer as high as 97 at times. He also throws a changeup and a curve, and he doesn’t have a ton of innings on his arm, so there is a chance he can take a leap with professional instruction. The Bad -VerHagen is a classic Tigers pick, as he has a big arm, but not a lot else to go along with it. Scouts worry about his arm action, and he struggles to get swings and misses because neither of his secondary pitches is particularly effective. His choppy delivery also prevents him from throwing many strikes. 2013 - VerHagen is most likely a reliever in the end, but I think the Tigers will send him back to Lakeland as a starter this year to get him innings and have him work on his secondary stuff. The Tigers are really high on this kid, despite his apparent deficiencies, because they think they can iron out his mechanics and turn one or both of his secondary pitches into an average offering. If they can, he could potentially be a #3 starter, but as I mentioned, it’s far more likely that he turns into a fastball/changeup reliever who could potentially work as a setup man. Irresponsible Comparison - Jared Burton 6 – Joe Rogers – LHP – 6’1, 205 - (22)2012 - The Tigers selected Rogers in the 5th round last year out of Central Florida, where he served as the Knights’ closer and went 5-1, 1.47 with 13 Saves and 47 Ks, 7 BBs, and 32 hits allowed over 41 innings. He continued relieving as a pro, getting 18 appearances in short-season ball, and posting a 2-1, 2.28 mark with 3 saves and 28 Ks, 12 BBs, and 20 hits allowed over 23.2 IP. The Good - Despite his pedigree as a reliever, there is some thought that Rogers can actually work as a starter as a pro because he has enough velocity on his fastball and he can throw four different pitches. As a reliever his fastball was generally in the 89-93 range, though he can spike up to 94-95. As a starter he’s more likely to pitch in the 88-91 range, but there is a small chance that he can maintain a slightly higher velocity. He also throws a couple of promising breaking balls and a cutter. The Bad - It may be tough for Rogers to gain much traction as a starter without a changeup, and there’s always concerns about injury and ineffectiveness when you stretch out a reliever. He has 4th-starter potential, but if he stays as a reliever, he doesn’t quite have the stuff to be anything more than a 7th-inning guy or a LOOGY. 2013 - His assignment and how quickly he moves is ultimately dependent upon what role the Tigers want him in. If they use him as a starter, he’ll probably spend the year in West Michigan to get innings, and he’ll probably post some pretty spectacular numbers there. If they keep him as a reliever, he could begin in Lakeland, and with his polish and mix of pitches, he could easily make to AA or even Toledo inside the season. Irresponsible Comparison - Paul Maholm (starter) /Wesley Wright (reliever) 7 – Edgar De la Rosa – RHP – 6’6, 225 - (22)2012 - The Tigers signed De La Rosa as a lanky, projectible 18-year-old from the Dominican Republic back in 2009, and he stayed in the DR for two seasons before coming to pitch in the states in 2011. Last year he remained in extended spring training before heading to short-season A-ball in Connecticut, where he went 4-4, 3.10 with 54 Ks, 34 BBs, and 66 hits allowed over 72.2 IP. The Good - Scouts love tall, lanky pitchers because the often add velocity as they fill out, and De La Rosa fulfilled that promise last year, gaining 3-4 mph on his fastball. His heavy fastball now sits in the 90-93 range, and he frequently hits the mid-90s, spiking at high as 98. He also made strides with his changeup, which could potentially be an above-average pitch, and his breaking ball also shows promise. If he manages to put everything together he could be a mid-rotation starter or a power reliever. The Bad - Like many big-bodied pitchers, De La Rosa has trouble repeating his delivery, which sometimes results in control lapses, and contributes to the inconsistency of his secondary stuff. There’s still a huge gap between what he is and what he could be, and he’s already 22, so he can’t really afford many missteps along the way if he is to remain a prospect. 2013 - After four years in rookie ball, De La Rosa is ready for full-season action in West Michigan, and he figures to spend the entire season there. Unless he’s traded or suffers a catastrophic injury this year, he’s a good bet to be added to the 40-man roster after this season, but unless he get moved to relief, he’s likely at least three full years away from the Majors. Irresponsible Comparison - Jason Hammel 8- Endrys Briceno – RHP – 6’4, 155 - (21)2012 - Aside from their weight, and the fact that he’s from Venezuela, Briceno and De La Rosa share very similar profiles. They both spent two years pitching in their home country before coming stateside in 2011, and they both spent last season pitching in short-season A-ball. Briceno’s numbers weren’t as good as De La Rosa’s, however, as he went 4-3, 5.15 with 30 Ks, 22 BBs, and allowed 60 hits over 57.2 IP. The Good - Briceno doesn’t have quite the fastball of De La Rosa, but he’s already close, and he may get there with added bulk. He currently sits in the 90-92 range, but he can bump up to 94-95 at times, and he has a pretty good idea of where he’s throwing his heater. Briceno also shows signs of a promising changeup, and though his breaking ball lags behind, it has a chance to be an average pitch. The Bad - The traditional concerns for young pitchers apply to Briceno – maintaining his mechanics, refining all his pitches, and continuing to work on his control and command. Briceno’s size is also a concern. He may be able to add bulk, but he may always stay thin, and that always leads to concerns about durability and a potential move to the bullpen. 2013 - Basically everything I wrote about De La Rosa also applies to Briceno, though Briceno is a year younger and smaller, so it’s not out of the question that he repeats in short-season A-ball. I’d bet that he spends the year in low-A though, and he’s also likely to be added to the 40-man roster after the year, with an MLB ETA of 2016. Irresponsible Comparison - Ross Detwiler 9 - Will Clinard – RHP – 6’4, 225 - (23)2012 - Much like Collier, Clinard appears to be something of a scouting find, as he wasn’t taken until the 19th round (604 overall) in the 2012 draft out of Vanderbilt. In his redshirt Junior year he posted a 7-3, 4.83 record with 5 saves in 30 appearances (2 starts), striking out 47 and walking 26 while giving up 55 hits in 54 innings. His numbers got much better in pro ball, however, as he split time between short-season and full-season A-ball, posting a cumulative 3-2, 2.41 line with 4 saves, 39 Ks, 9 walks, and 35 hits allowed in 21 appearances spanning 37.1 IP. The Good - Clinard has a sturdy build and four usable pitches, led by a sinking fastball in the 90-92 range that gets up to 94, and a cutter that is often a plus pitch, and sometimes flashes as a 70-grade offering. He also throws a solid slider and a useable changeup, and he likes to attack hitters on the inside of the plate. The Bad - There aren’t necessarily any glaring weaknesses to Clinard’s game, but he doesn’t really have that high of a ceiling either. It also remains to be seen how well his stuff will play against more advanced hitters. 2013 - Though I’d like to see the Tigers stretch Clinard out a bit to see how he fares as a starter, he figures to remain a reliever for the foreseeable future. As a reliever, he figures to move through the system very quickly, likely beginning in Lakeland this year, and possibly pitching his way all the way to Toledo. There’s a chance he becomes a setup man, but I see him more as a super reliever who can get two batters out one night, and throw three innings the next. Irresponsible Comparison - Scott Feldman 10 - Logan Ehlers - LHP - 6'1, 190 - (21)2012 - Ehlers may have the highest upside of any pitcher the Tigers took in the 2012 draft, but he fell to the 20th round, where the Tigers signed him for $122K. He turned down $800K coming out of high school to attend Nebraska, but after being suspended and injuring his arm, he transferred to Howard JC, where he went 12-1, 1.17 with 104 Ks, 33 BBs, and 64 hits allowed in 84.1 IP. Ehlers got into 5 games as a pro, racking up 16 Ks against 3 walks and 9 hits in 16.1 GCL innings. Unfortunately, Ehlers aggravated his shoulder again and was shut down during Instructional league. The Good - Ehlers has the chance to have three pitches that are at least MLB-average, and his fastball and slider should be above-average to plus. His fastball sits in the 88-92 range, which is solid from the left side, and he can run it up to 94 when he needs to. He slider sits in the low 80s and flashes plus break at times, and while his changeup is currently raw, he shows a good feel for his arm speed and releases it from a consistent arm slot. Ehlers also controls all three pitches well, and shows a good feel for mixing his offerings. The Bad - You may be asking how a guy with this many positives lasted until the 20th round. It appears to be a combination of bonus demands, his injury history, and questions about his work ethic and attitude while at Nebraska. Those are certainly red flags, but he’s far from the first kid to have maturity issues. The shoulder soreness is what concerns me the most, but it doesn’t appear to be too serious right now. Other than that, it’s just a matter of him refining his stuff and getting innings. 2013 - In most cases, a guy like Ehlers would be sent to West Michigan to spend the year starting in Low-A. That may very well be what happens, but part of me thinks the Tigers may want to bump him to Lakeland just so he’s around their center of minor league operations. In any event, if everything comes together for him, he could move pretty quickly, perhaps sneaking into MLB action in late 2015. Irresponsible Comparison - Brian Duensing 11 - Brenny Paulino - RHP - 6'4, 170 - (20)2012 - The Tigers signed Paulino out of the Dominican Republic in late 2009, and he spent the 2010 season in the DR before making a very impressive U.S. debut in the Gulf Coast League in 2011. He went 4-3, 2.36 as an 18-year-old in rookie ball with 45 Ks and 18 walks in 45.1 innings, portending good things to come in 2012. Unfortunately, Paulino was bothered by shoulder trouble that eventually led to surgery, and he missed all of the 2012 season. The Good - Well, it’s tough to say without knowing how he has come back from the shoulder procedure which was termed as a “minor clean up,” but when he was healthy, Paulino had one of the best fastballs in the entire system, sitting in the 92-94 range with good natural movement, and flashing at 96 or even higher. He showed signs of much improved control in 2011, and he also has an ideal pitcher’s frame, with a lean torso, big hands, and long limbs that suggest even more velocity down the line. The Bad - His secondary offerings are nowhere near where they would need to be for him to have success at higher levels, let alone in the Majors. He has shown some feel for a breaking ball, and he also throws a changeup, but it may never be better than a below-average pitch. It would be ideal to keep him as a starter, but he may end up being a reliever. 2013 - His future is completely up in the air right now. If we assume he’s completely healthy, I could see his 2013 season beginning in three different locations, and depending on if his velocity comes back, he could be used as a starter or a reliever. The Tigers are known for aggressive promotion, but Paulino won’t turn 20 until February 21st, and unless he really impresses them this spring, I think they’ll hold him back until June and send him to short-season A-ball, with a possible promotion to West Michigan if he pitches well. Irresponsible Comparison - Alexi Ogando 12 - Melvin Mercedes - RHP - 6'3, 220 - (22)2012 - Signed out of the Dominican Republic as a 17-year-old, Mercedes has spent parts of the last four seasons pitching in low-A West Michigan, but those years were interrupted by Tommy John surgery in 2010. Last year marked his longest and best stint in the league, going 0-3, 2.80 with 9 saves in 37 appearances, and 43 Ks, 23 walks, and 54 hits in 64.1 IP. Mercedes also made one appearance in high-A Lakeland, and four appearances in the Dominican Winter League before being added to the Tigers 40-man roster in December. The Good - Mercedes’ best pitch is his fastball, which sits in the 91-94 range with terrific movement, and has bumped as high as 96 in the past. He also throws a slider that flashes as an above-average pitch, and while he doesn’t have great control, he took a step in the right direction last year, getting his walk rate under 10% for the first time in his career. He does a good job of getting ground balls with both of his pitches. The Bad - As I mentioned, Mercedes does have the best control and command, and it’s likely that he’ll always have a bit of trouble locating the zone because he’s a thicker guy who has issues repeating his delivery. He only has two pitches, which isn’t a huge deal because he’s always been a reliever, but he’s never been a big strikeout guy, and unless his slider takes a big step forward, he’s probably limited to a ceiling of 7th-inning duty in the Majors. 2012 - The Tigers think Mercedes has a legit future in the MLB, otherwise they wouldn’t have added him to the 40-man roster, but I’d be kind of shocked if he didn’t start the year in high-A Lakeland. That said, relievers can shoot through the system if everything comes together for them, and I expect Mercedes to see some time in AA Erie this year. Irresponsible Comparison - Frank Francisco 13 - Luke Putkonen - RHP - 6'6, 210 - (26)2012 - The Tigers drafted Putkonen out of North Carolina back in 2007, and he spent five years kicking around the system as a mostly ineffective starter, to the point that it looked as though he may be released by the organization. But then the Tigers tried him as a reliever, and his fastball jumped at least a full grade, seemingly out of nowhere. It didn’t necessarily make him more effective – he went 3-3, 4.92 with 46 Ks, 20 BBs, and 68 Hits in 56.2 AAA innings – but it certainly made him more intriguing, and it earned him 16 MLB innings. He also spent some time in the Arizona Fall League, where he got knocked around pretty badly, but he may have been working on his stuff. The Good - As I mentioned, Putkonen has a plus fastball that sat at 95 in the Majors last year, and spiked as high as 98. His fastball seems even faster because of his size and long stride. Putkonen can also keep hitters off guard by throwing a curve in the low 80s and a splitter around 85-86. The Bad - Well, most of you saw Putkonen in action last year, so you know. He doesn’t command his fastball very well at all, tending to leave it up and over the plate, and neither of his secondary pitches is particularly sharp at this point. All of that combines to make him more hittable than he should be, and he’s unlikely to be much more than a mop-up guy, with a ceiling of a 7th-inning reliever. 2012 - He has a power arm, and the Tigers think they can work with him to improve his secondary stuff, so Putkonen will enter the season with a slight chance to head to the Majors to begin the year, particularly with Villarreal likely to be out for a while. That said, I’d be shocked if he didn’t end up back in Toledo to start the year, with a few appearances in Detroit likely. Irresponsible Comparison - Alfredo Simon 14 - Tyler Stohr - RHP - 6'2, 215 - (26)2012 - A product of the Ryan Perry-led “Reliever Draft” of 2008 that everyone hated, Stohr has slowly worked his way through the system, missing almost all of the 2010 season with Tommy John surgery, but coming back strongly enough in 2011 to earn a spot on the 40-man roster. Unfortunately, injuries cropped up again last year, relegating him to just 24.2 IP in AA, where he posted a curious line: 2-1, 2.19, but just 20 Ks against 24 walks and 18 hits. The Tigers removed him from the 40-man to make room for Mercedes/Rondon, but he remains in the organization. The Good - Stohr still has the fastball that helped him get drafted, and though his velo has gone down a tick, he still sits in the low-90s and can reach back for 94-95 if he needs to. His slider also shows signs of being an above-average pitch. The Bad - Stohr’s control and command remain suboptimal, as evidenced by his walk totals, and he needs to find more consistency with his slider. I question whether he’ll ever be able to make that step, because he has a funky delivery that is probably behind both his control issues AND his injuries. 2013 - Stohr isn’t quite an org reliever at this point, but he’ll probably head to either AA or AAA depending on which team needs him more, and which team can give him innings. He’s not gonna be more than a 7th-inning guy, and he’s behind a lot of other guys who fit that profile, but relievers don’t need much more than a hot month to see their future change drastically, and I wouldn’t rule out a trip to the Majors at some point this year. Irresponsible Comparison - Shawn Kelley 15 - Luis Marte - RHP - 5'11, 200 - (26)2011 - It’s been a long trek for Marte, who was signed as an 17-year-old out of the Dominican Republic in 2005. He actually looked like one of the better starting pitching prospects in the system, before injuries sapped some of his velocity and forced him into a relief role. He struggled a bit in relief before putting it all together in late 2011, and he battled hard in spring training last season, eventually winning the final spot in the bullpen – and then promptly getting hurt again. Still, he did manage to get into 13 innings in the Majors, going 1-0, 2.82 with 19 Ks, 9 walks, and 19 hits over 22.1 IP. The Good - Marte doesn’t have the mid-90s velocity that he used to, but he sits in the 88-92 range, and he has very good command of the pitch. Marte also throws two breaking balls that both flash as above-average or better offerings, and a changeup that is decent enough to keep hitters off balance. The Bad - Marte is essentially a tweener – he doesn’t have the power stuff to be a late-inning reliever, and though he has the arsenal to be a starter, he’s not durable enough to be used in that role. That means he’s basically a 6th-inning/mop-up guy. 2012 - The good news for Marte is that the Tigers may need a guy like him, with Rondon, Benoit, Alburquerque, Dotel, and Coke basically all late-inning power arms. That leaves Marte competing for a bullpen role with Below, Darin Downs, Casey Crosby, and then Rule-5 pick Kyle Lobstein. I suspect the Tigers will want another lefty in the pen, but Marte is a nice option to have, and I can see him winning a spot. If not, he’ll head to Toledo to being the year. Irresponsible Comparison - Luis Ayala 16- Jordan John - LHP - 6'3, 200 - (22)2012 - The Tigers took John in the 6th round last year as a redshirt Sophomore out of Oklahoma, where he served as a workhorse swingman, racking up 121.2 IP in 27 appearances, including 12 starts, with 106 strikeouts and 32 walks. He made three appearances in the Gulf Coast League as a pro, but the Tigers wisely let him rest after his heavy college workload. The Good - John has a similar profile to that of former Tiger Adam Wilk, though John is slightly more physical and has a little bit more on his fastball. Still, John’s main asset is his above-average command of four different pitches. He gets good movement on his fastball, and his curve and cutter both flash as above-average pitches. The Bad - John’s margin for error is small because his fastball is typically in the 86-88 range, only occasionally hitting 90, which puts a premium on his secondary stuff. He has enough pitches to start, but his stuff probably isn’t quite good enough to get by in that role in the Majors, so he’s likely stuck in the bullpen, where he could develop into a LOOGY. He also had Tommy John surgery back in 2010, so injuries could be an issue. 2013 - If the Tigers want to keep John as a starter, he’ll likely head to West Michigan, where control lefties like him tend to dominate. The Tigers may also get aggressive and send him to Lakeland to start or relieve. His MLB timetable depends largely on the role the Tigers choose for him, but as a reliever he could compete for a bullpen role as soon as 2015. Irresponsible Comparison - Darren Oliver 17 - Kyle Ryan - LHP - 6'5, 190 - (21)2012 - Selected in the 12th round out of a Florida high school in 2010, Ryan posted a very solid 6-10, 3.15 mark in low-A in 2011, and I thought for sure he was ready to take on high-A. Instead, the Tigers sent him back to West Michigan, where he regressed a bit, going 7-8, 3.74 with 105 Ks, 29 Walks, and 176 hits allowed in 158.2 IP. The Good - Ryan still has the sort of long, lean frame that scouts love and his fastball is already a solid-average pitch, ranging from 87-93 during games, so there is some hope for added velocity down the line. He also has a curveball that has shown a lot of promise in the past, and he has no trouble throwing strikes. The Bad - Ryan’s strike-throwing may actually be an issue for him, as he doesn’t command his pitches terribly well right now, leading to too many hits, and a spike in homers. His curve and changeup are both lacking right now, and without those pitches taking a step forward, he doesn’t really have much of an MLB profile. 2013 - I have to believe that after nearly 200 innings in low-A, Ryan is ready for the Lakeland rotation. He’ll need to improve his command to avoid running into the same issues as his former teammate Alex Burgos (2.19 in low-A, 4.90 in high-A), but he could certainly use the challenge. There’s still a fair amount of promise in his arm, and he could eventually reach the Majors as a back-end starter, but he’ll need to take a step forward this season. Irresponsible Comparison - J.A. Happ 18 - Hudson Randall - LHP - 6'4, 185 - (22)2012 - Randall was taken one round after Jordan John last year, and Randall is essentially the right-handed version of John. As a Junior at Florida, he went 9-3, 2.59 with 62 Ks and 10 walks with 86 hits allowed in 94 IP. He missed some time during the year due to fatigue, but he did make 7 pro appearances in the GCL where he got in 12 innings. The Good - Like John, Randall’s number one asset is his pitching ability, and he’s sort of a classic sinker/slider guy who excels at keeping the ball low in the zone and getting ground balls. He also throws a curve and a changeup, both of which have some promise. He’s 22, but he’s still pretty skinny, so there’s some hope that maybe he can add a bit of velocity. The Bad - It may be absolutely necessary for Randall to get that spike in velocity, because he currently pitches in the 85-88 range, rarely even hitting 90. There aren’t many right-handers who can get by with that sort of velocity in the Majors. There aren’t a lot of righty relievers with that kind of velocity either, so he’ll have to perfect his secondary stuff to reach his ceiling as a #5 starter. 2013 - Randall is already pretty polished, but he still needs innings to get acquainted with professional hitters, and I suspect the Tigers will send him to Lakeland because he probably won’t be challenged much by low-A hitters. He’s definitely a long shot, but if he makes all the proper strides and gains a bit of heat on his fastball, he could see the Majors in 2015. Irresponsible Comparison - Bronson Arroyo 19 - Montreal Robertson - RHP - 6'4, 220 - (22)2012 - The Tigers took Robertson in the 29th round in 2011 out of tiny Coahoma Community College in Mississippi, and he opened some eyes working primarily as a reliever in his first season in pro ball. In 2012 the Tigers had him work as a starter to get innings and work on his stuff, and he posted a 0-4, 4.69 line in 48 IP with 33 Ks, 20 BBs, and 44 hits allowed in short-season A-ball. The Good - Robertson is intriguing because he has a power fastball that sits in the 90-94 range, and he can get it up to 97 at times. He’s a big, athletic kid, and he also throws a slider and a changeup, both of which have shown promise in the past. The Bad - Robertson doesn’t hold his velocity very well, which likely prevents him from being a starter in the long term, and while his secondary offerings have shown some promise, neither figures to be better than average, so he’s unlikely to be guy who gets a lot of strikeouts, leaving him with a 7th-inning profile. 2013 - I assume the Tigers will continue to use Robertson as a starter for at least half of the year, likely in West Michigan. Even if they make him a reliever, he’s likely to begin the year in low-A, but it’s not out of the question that he moves to Lakeland at some point. He’s still kind of raw, so if he makes the Majors, I wouldn’t expect it to be until 2016. Irresponsible Comparison - Ryan Webb 20 - Chad Smith - RHP - 6'3, 215 - (22)2012 - The Tigers picked Chad Smith in the 17th round in 2011 out of Southern Cal. He was a starter in his first two years at USC before moving into the closer’s role as a Junior, but he blew out his elbow during the season, allowing the Tigers to get him later than his raw talent would indicate. Smith made his pro debut last year, splitting time between the rookie-level GCL, short-season A-ball, and low-A West Michigan. He started a bit and relieved a bit, posting a cumulative line of 1-2, 2.76 with 48Ks, 14 BBs, and 40 hits allowed in 45.2 IP. The Good - When healthy, Smith throws a heavy sinking fastball in the 90-93 range, though he has been clocked as high as 96 in the past. Smith also throws a sweeping slider that works well because he pitches from a low arm slot. He has a sturdy build, and he typically throws strikes. The Bad -Smith doesn’t have much of a changeup, so any thought of him starting is out the window, and he doesn’t have the elite velocity or the command of his pitches to profile as a back-end reliever, so he’s left as yet another guy with a ceiling of a 7th-inning or mop-up reliever. 2013 - Much like Robertson, the Tigers figure to keep Smith as a starter to get him innings and help him refine his command and secondary pitches. There are only so many rotation spots in the low minors though, so Smith may work as something of a swingman, bouncing back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen, likely in West Michigan or Lakeland. He needs to take a few steps forward, but if he does, he could see time in the Majors by 2016. Irresponsible Comparison - Shawn Tolleson Others of NoteAlex Burgos - LHP - 5'11, 190 - (22) – Four-pitch lefty who I’m lower on than just about everyone else. Back-end potential. Anthony Castro - RHP - 6'1, 160 - (17) – Possibly the next fireballer to come from the Latin program. Julio Felix - RHP - 6'1, 185 - (21) – 12th rounder in 2012 has mid-90s heat, intriguing changeup. Jose Ortega - RHP - 5'11, 185 - (24) –Hard thrower with poor control who is still on the 40-man roster. Matt Hoffman - LHP - 6'2, 225 - (24) – Lefty with inconsistent velocity. Removed from the 40-man roster this year. Position PlayersLast Year 1 – Nick Castellanos 2 – Tyler Collins 3 – Danry Vasquez 4 – Rob Brantly – Traded to Marlins 5 – James McCann 6 – Avisail Garcia 7 – Tyler Gibson 8 – Aaron Westlake 9- Jamie Johnson 10- Brandon Loy 11- Daniel Fields 12- Hernan Perez 13- Dixon Machado 14- Bryan Holaday 15- Ryan Strieby - Released 16- Eugenio Suarez 17- Jason King 18- Steven Moya 19- Harold Castro 20- Adelin Santa (Asked for, and was given his release)
Overview – The Tigers actually have a fair amount of interesting talent on the offensive side of the ball, although almost all of it is in the outfield and at catcher. It never hurts to have depth, but they could definitely use a few more infield prospects.
1 - Nick Castellanos - OF/3B - 6'4, 210 - (21) 2012 – Castellanos came into 2012 as a consensus top 100 prospect in baseball, and it took him all of two months to turn himself into a consensus top-25 prospect. He went bonkers in high-A, hitting .405/.461/.553 over 55 games before earning a promotion to AA Erie. He held his own for two months in AA, despite being moved to LF after a few weeks, but he pretty much fell apart in August/September, hitting under .200 over the final five weeks. He also struggled a bit in the Arizona Fall League, hitting .242/.309/.333 over 24 games, and leading the league with 31 strikeouts.
The Good – Castellanos possesses some of the best barrel awareness in all of the minor leagues – that is, he not only has to ability to consistently put the bat on the ball, but the uncanny ability to put the barrel of his bat on the ball. He laces line drives all over the field, and he takes what pitchers give him. He’s a tall, lanky kid who could still put on another 20 pounds of muscle, he has the raw strength to hit 20-30 homers a year in his prime, and the pure hitting ability to hit at least .270 on an annual basis. He’s not a super athlete, but he’s definitely athletic enough to handle an OF corner, and his arm and average speed are more than enough for LF.
The Bad – Castellanos’ ability to make easy contact leads him to swing at a lot of pitches that he shouldn’t, particularly breaking balls from right-handers and changeups from lefties, and he’s likely to always have fairly high strikeout totals. He hasn’t really tapped into his power yet, and he needs to learn when to turn on pitches. Though he has the physical tools to be a solid outfielder, he’s still very raw out there and has a lot of work to do as far as reading the ball off the bat. And while it hasn’t been an issue yet, Castellanos has an odd load with his hands before his swing, and some scouts think it may cause trouble in the future.
2013 – Even though he’s an elite prospect, Castellanos has a lot of work left before he’s a viable MLB player. I’ve read that he will take fly balls in the OF while still fielding grounders at 3rd, so the Tigers will be keeping him busy. The signing of Torii Hunter bought some more development time for the kid, but even if he doesn’t get everything worked out in the field, the Tigers won’t hesitate to bring him up if they think he has made the requisite progress with his bat. I’d like to see him begin the year back in AA Erie, but the Tigers may very well start him in Toledo, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him get ABs in the Majors this season.
Irresponsible Comparison – Right-handed Nick Markakis
2 - Avisail Garcia - OF - 6'4, 240 - R/R - (21) 2012 - In 2012 Garcia finally had the year the organization had been hoping for, putting together all of his tools for the first time, and hitting his way from high-A all the way up to playing a key role in the MLB playoffs. He hit a combined .299/.333/.455 with 23 SB and 8 CS in 122 minor-league games, then hit .319/.373/.319 in 23 MLB games. He also spent some time in the Venezuelan Winter League, where he was only able to muster a .185/.267/.222 line.
The Good - Garcia is average or better with all five tools, led by his above-average knack for putting the ball in play, and plus raw power that we really didn’t get to see much of in the Majors. We did, however, get a glimpse of his plus speed, above-average defense, and 70-grade arm. He’s a big, physical kid who is built like a linebacker, and he plays baseball with supreme effort and infectious enthusiasm. In his brief time in the Majors he showed an impressive ability to recognize what opposing pitchers were trying to do to him, laying off pitches in the dirt more often than not.
The Bad - Garcia’s aggressive approach is the main weakness in his game. It hasn’t led to a ton of strikeouts, but it does mean that he rarely walks, and it also saps his power because he’s willing to put his bat on anything instead of waiting for pitches to drive. If he doesn’t improve in this area, it’s unlikely that he’ll ever be more than a 4th outfielder.
2012 - The Tigers definitely want Garcia to play every day, so he almost certain to begin the year in Toledo, unless he manages to beat out Dirks for the starting LF job. I don’t think he’ll be able to pull that off, but he needs more ABs against advanced pitching anyway, so time in AAA is perfect for him. He’ll be the first OF called up in the event of an injury, and if he can take another step forward this year, he’ll be a starter in 2014, and likely on his way to a nice career. As a five-tool OF who is nearly MLB ready, Garcia also makes for a very attractive trade chip.
Irresponsible Comparison - Physically like Matt Kemp, but with nowhere near the usable power
3 - Tyler Collins - LF - 5'11, 205 - L/L - (22) 2012 - Collins has hit everywhere he’s ever been, from Baylor, to Howard Junior College, to short-season ball in 2011, and Lakeland last year. In his first full year as a pro, Collins hit .290/.371/.429, finishing near the top 10 in the league a number of categories, including Runs (68), Hits (137), Doubles (35), RBI (66), Walks (58), and adding 20 steals in 23 attempts for good measure. He probably could have been bumped to AA, but the Tigers almost never promote guys during their first full pro season.
The Good - Collins loves to hit, and he’s quite good at it, controlling the strike zone and working counts until he gets something he can drive, and rarely striking out. His power is mostly to the gaps right now, but he has enough strength to turn on pitches and hit 15-18 homers a year in his prime. Collins also has above-average speed that plays up on the bases thanks to very good baserunning instincts.
The Bad - This is exactly what I wrote last year, and it still applies: Defense is the biggest issue for Collins. He's athletic and well built, but he lacks the range for center, and he doesn't have the arm for right, so he'll probably have to settle in as a defensively adequate left-fielder. With that profile, he'll have to continue to hit for both average and power, and some question his ultimate power ceiling.
2013 - There’s nothing left for Collins to do in Lakeland, so he’ll head to Erie to test himself against the more advanced secondary stuff in the Eastern League. It’s likely that he’ll be joined in the Erie outfield by Castellanos and Daniel Fields, and he’ll play whatever corner sport Castellanos isn’t.
Irresponsible Comparison - Andy Dirks
4 - Austin Schotts - OF - 5'11, 180 - R/R - (19) 2012 - The Tigers nabbed Schotts with their 2nd pick in the 2012 draft (3rd round) out of Centennial High in Frisco, Texas. He played SS in high-school, but the Tigers moved him to CF. He hit the ground running, both literally and figuratively, posting a .310/.360/.452 line in 40 rookie-level games, finishing in the Top 10 in a variety of categories, and even earning a two-game stint in high-A.
The Good - Schotts is a more advanced hitter than your typical high schooler, showing good bat speed and the ability to make consistent contact, along with enough power to drive the ball to the gaps. Schotts’ best tool is his speed though, earning 70 grades from scouts thanks to excellent acceleration and a great top-end, and that speed figures to make him an above-average defender with more experience.
The Bad - Even though he’s fairly advanced for a high schooler, Schotts is still raw as professionals go, and he strikes out a bit more than you’d like because he’s not used to professional secondary stuff. He doesn’t have the arm strength to play SS or RF as a pro, and his power ceiling is probably 10 homers a year, so his defense will probably have evolve into a plus-or-better tool for him to be an MLB starter.
2013 - Schotts is right on track to begin this season in at low-A West Michigan, where he’ll be among the youngest players in the league. Unless he sees unusual success or failure, he’ll likely spend the entire season there, and I’m optimistic that he can hit about .260-.270 with 30+ extra-base hits and 25-40 steals. He’ll probably go a level at a time for his first few seasons, but if everything goes according to plan, he could see some action in AAA in 2015, and possibly be ready to take over in CF when Austin Jackson is a free agent in 2016.
Irresponsible Comparison - Rajai Davis
5- Danry Vasquez - RF - 6'3, 170 - L/R - (19) 2011 - The biggest investment the Tigers have ever made in a Latin amateur prospect, Vasquez signed for a bit more than $1 million in 2010, and to my knowledge, he’s the only Latin prospect they’ve signed who came directly to the U.S. He put together a solid 2011 season in the rookie level GCL, and the Tigers really challenged him by assigned him to low-A West Michigan to begin 2012. It proved to be too much of a challenge for him, unfortunately, hitting just .162/.218/.222 through 29 games before being sent back to extended spring training. He didn’t get discouraged though, and when short-season ball started he starting hitting again, posting a .311/.341/.401 line with 13 walks and 45 Ks in 72 games. His average was good for 7th in the league, despite him being 2-4 years younger than most of his competition.
The Good - Vasquez’s carrying tool is his bat, and he shows the batspeed, hand-eye coordination, and Castellanos-like barrel awareness to potentially hit .300 or better in the Majors. His power hasn’t really shown up yet, but he’s a high-waisted, long-limbed kid who looks like he could easily carry another 30 pounds, which would presumably give him at least average pop. He doesn’t walk much, but he also isn’t a big swing-and-miss guy, which is always promising.
The Bad - The Tigers signed Vasquez with the intent of making him a classic right-fielder, but last year they moved him to LF so he could focus on his hitting. He’s a natural outfielder, but he doesn’t have great range, and his arm isn’t strong enough for RF yet, and there’s a chance he may never have the arm for it. He’s currently a below-average runner, and figures to slow down more as he fills out, so CF isn’t an option. So, that leaves him as a left fielder, and like Collins, puts a big premium on his bat. If his power doesn’t develop, he won’t be much of a prospect.
2013 - Vasquez is ready for another crack at low-A, and this time I think he’ll perform much better. If everything works out for Danry, he’ll move a level at a time, finding himself in AA as a 21-year-old in 2015. It’s also possible that he may have to repeat a level along the way, so I wouldn’t expect him to sniff the Majors until at least 2016.
Irresponsible Comparison - David Murphy
6 - Eugenio Suarez - SS -6’, 180 - R/R - (21) 2012 - The Tigers always make it a priority to sign shortstops during the International Free Agency period, and they grabbed Suarez as a 17-year-old out of Venezuela late in 2008. He spent two years in the Venezuelan Summer League before impressing in his U.S. debut, showing good offense and defense across two levels. He continued to impress in his first full-season action last year, batting .288/.380/.409, finishing in the top 10 in most offensive categories, and racking up 45 extra-base hits and 21 steals.
The Good - Suarez does everything pretty well, but his one standout tool is his defense at shortstop, where he showcases plus range, soft hands, and a strong arm. He also has the versatility to play solid D at second base and even in the outfield. He’s no slouch with the stick either, showing the good contact skills, gap power, and patience for him to hit .280 or better in his prime. He’s not a power hitter, but he has more pop than one might expect, and he also adds average speed that should allow him to steal double digit bases every year.
The Bad - Despite his surprising pop, Suarez isn’t a terribly physical guy, and he may already be maxed out, so some scouts worry that he may not be able to drive elite velocity. And while Suarez walks more than a lot of the Tigers previous infield prospects, he still tends to swing and miss a bit too much. He needs to maximize his skills to prove he can be more than just a utility player.
2013 - Ideally, Suarez will spend the full year in Lakeland refining his offensive game, but the Tigers were discussing jumping him all the way to AA to begin the year. They have an interesting decision to make, though, because Dixon Machado hit .195 as the starting SS in Lakeland last year, and he almost certainly needs to repeat the league. However, they added Machado to the 40-man roster, so there’s a chance they send him to AA despite his nonexistent bat. The other possibility is that they keep them both in Lakeland and move Suarez to 2B. It’s probably the most interesting minor league decision the org needs to make this year. Suarez is likely to be added to the 40-man roster after this year, and depending on what happens with a Peralta/Porcello deal, we could see him in Detroit in 2014.
Irresponsible Comparison - Omar Infante
7 - Steven Moya - OF - 6'7, 230 - L/R - (21) 2012 - One of the few Puerto Ricans in the system, the Tigers signed Moya back in late 2008, and until last season, he didn’t look like much of a prospect. After hitting .204/.234/.362 in low-A in 2011, the Tigers had him repeat the level, and the light turned on. He got off to a great start, showcasing new hitting ability and improved plate discipline. Unfortunately, Moya was hit by two freak injuries that hampered his progress, first a tender hamstring that forced him to miss a handful of games, and then a torn elbow ligament that led to TJ surgery, and ended his season after just 59 games. Still, he managed to hit .288/.319/.481 when he played, making the Midwest League All-star game.
The Good - Moya is an absolutely massive human being, and he has the power to match his size, regularly earning 70 and 80 grades for his raw power, and launching light-tower homers in batting practice and in games. As I mentioned, Moya also showed a previously unseen ability to hit for average, and when I saw him play a few times, I was impressed with his ability to track balls and lay off borderline pitches. Moya is also a fairly mobile for a guy his size, and he has enough arm strength to be an average right-fielder in the Majors.
The Bad - The biggest bummer is that Moya is a guy who really needs to see as much game action as possible, and the 80+ games he missed last year came at a crucial time in his development. He’s probably never gonna be a guy who hits more than .260 in any given season, and his giant strike zone doesn’t do him any favors with regard to cutting down on his strikeouts. It’s unlikely that he’ll ever walk much, so he absolutely needs to continue to hit, and hit for big-time power.
2013 - I have to assume that Moya will be manning the outfield in Lakeland to begin the year, even though he would probably benefit a great deal from more time in low-A. He did show a ton of progress from 2011 to 2012, so maybe he’ll be able to take another step forward this year. There are probably fewer than a dozen guys in all of the minors with the kind of power potential that Moya possesses, and the Tigers would be wise to be patient with him. He’s yet another guy due to be added to the 40-man roster at the end of the year.
Irresponsible Comparison - Brennan Boesch
8 - James McCann - C - 6'2, 210 - R/R - (22) 2012 - The Tigers took McCann with their first pick in the 2011 draft (76th overall), and most saw it as an uninspiring pick in what was a draft loaded with talent. However, the Tigers saw a guy who had the floor of an MLB backup, with enough offensive upside to potentially profile as a regular. The long college season and the old signing deadline meant that he made it into just 14 games in 2011, but he got in a full slate of action in 2012, hitting .288 in 45 high-A games before earning a promotion to AA, where he hit just .200/.227/.282. He also went to the Arizona Fall League, where he again struggled, hitting just .195 with no extra-base hits. Defensively, he made 9 errors, committed 12 passed balls, and threw out 43% of potential base stealers.
The Good - McCann’s calling card is his defense, which is currently solid, but projects to be above-average. He calls a good game, he knows how to frame pitches well, and he’s a solid leader on the field. He does a nice job of blocking balls in the dirt, and he has above-average arm strength, though he needs to clean up his feet and transfer a bit to get better results. McCann has decent raw strength, and he has the contact skills and plate discipline to hit around .250 on an annual basis, which is okay for a catcher.
The Bad - Nothing about McCann really stands out, and his offensive struggles in AA were rather disappointing. He has kind of a long swing that prevents him from catching up to good velocity, and neuters his solid raw power. He needs to take several steps forward to reach his offensive ceiling, and even then his potential with the bat is kind of limited.
2013 - The Tigers have solid depth at catcher, and McCann certainly didn’t separate himself in his time at AA, so he figures to return to Erie this year. Catcher is such a complex position that it’s easy to look at a guy’s offensive numbers and write him off without knowing exactly what he’s been working on. Realistically, McCann will be fine if he just takes a few steps forward in AA this year, hitting .250 with a handful of homers. He still has a chance to be a regular, but he’ll have to start proving it this year.
Irresponsible Comparison - Gerald Laird
9 - Daniel Fields - OF - 6'1, 200 - L/R - (22) 2012 - The Tigers spent well over $1 million to get Fields away from his commitment to UM back in 2009, and thus far, it hasn’t looked like a great investment. He looked promising after skipping low-A altogether and holding his own in Lakeland, but then he repeated the level in 2011 and regressed. He returned to Lakeland for a third season, but unfortunately went down with a hernia. He came back and played okay, but the Tigers promoted him to AA anyway, just to get him a change of scenery, and he showed some signs of progress. His cumulative line in 91 games last year - .266/.329/.357 with 3 homers and 23 steals in 31 tries.
The Good - Fields remains one of the best athletes in the system, with the raw power to hit 15-20 homers in his prime, and he finally started refining his above-average speed enough to steal a few bases last year. He shows good patience at the plate, and he has the range to be an above-average defender in the outfield.
The Bad - Scouts have serious questions about Fields’ swing, and he’s always had a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, in part because he struggles with breaking balls. That lack of hitting prowess is also preventing him from tapping into his power potential. Fields was a prep shortstop, but his arm hasn’t translated well to the outfield at all, the point where he may need to move out of CF.
2013 - Fields will head back to AA Erie to begin the year where he’ll need to really start turning his tools into usable baseball skills. You never want to write off guys with his athleticism, and you never know when something might click, but at this point it looks like he may need to take some big steps just to be a useful 4th outfielder. He could conceivably see the Majors by 2014 if he figures things out.
Irresponsible Comparison - Eric Thames
10 - Curt Casali - OF - 6'2, 220 - R/R - (23) 2012 - The Tigers nabbed Casali in the 10th round out of Vanderbilt in the 2011, and he’s a rare position player who has become a solid prospect despite being drafted as a senior. He got in 35 games across two levels in 2011, and the Tigers assigned him to low-A to begin 2012. He hit .288/.402/.500 there through 48 games, earning a promotion to high-A Lakeland. In 94 games between the two levels, he hit .270/.365/.427 with 9 homers, 38 walks, and 46 strikeouts. On defense he committed 8 errors, 4 passed balls, and caught 33% or potential base stealers.
The Good - Despite getting drafted 9 rounds later than McCann, Casali may be the best all-around catching prospect in the system. He’s a good defender and leader, working well with pitchers, showing an above-average arm, and blocking balls in the dirt very well. He also has solid-average power and a patient, contact-oriented approach at the plate that should help him draw walks and keep his Ks manageable.
The Bad - Despite his good traits, Casali still probably profiles as a backup. He’s not likely to hit higher than .250 in the Majors because he doesn’t have great bat speed and his swing can get a bit long. The lack of bat speed may also negate his solid power to a certain extent. He’s had some injury issues, including elbow problems in college and he’s slow…but he’s a catcher, so that’s not surprising.
2013 - The organization’s catching depth will almost certainly keep Casali in Lakeland for at least half of the 2013 season, but there are a fair amount of people who think that Casali may eventually be the ideal right-handed platoon partner for Avila, rather than McCann. I’d expect him to hit pretty well in Lakeland, and who knows, if he really steps it up he could catch and pass McCann. With no one blocking him, he could see a late call up in 2014.
Irresponsible Comparison - Chris Iannetta
11 - Harold Castro - 2B - 6', 145 - L/R - (19) 2012 - As with Danry Vasquez, the Tigers signed Castro out of Venezuela in 2010, but Castro stayed home and began his career in the Venezuelan Summer League, posting a very respectable .313/.352/.365 line with 11 extra-base hits and 24 steals in 31 tries. He came stateside last year and essentially duplicated his numbers, hitting .311/.343/.420 in 51 games in the Gulf Coast League, with 17 extra-base hits and 15 steals in 18 tries.
The Good - The most appealing aspect of Castro’s game right now is his hit tool, which projects to be at least average (.260+) because he has a short, quick left-handed swing and he has a knack for barreling the ball. He shows surprising pop for such a small guy, easily finding the gaps when he connects, and he also has above-average speed that helps him leg out infield hits and should allow him to steal double digit bases in his prime.
The Bad - Unlike the majority of Latin infield prospects in the Tigers system, Castro’s glove lags behind his bat. He shows all the physical tools to capably man 2nd base, but his footwork is still a bit sloppy and he needs to work on his double-play exchanges. He’s an aggressive hitter, and more advanced pitchers may take advantage of that to get him to chase pitches. And despite his surprising pop, it’s unlikely that he’ll ever hit more than 10 homers in any given season.
2013 - Castro has been impressive in his first two professional seasons, and he would be a viable option as either the starting second baseman in West Michigan or in short-season Connecticut. He would be young for either league, so it’s just a matter of how ready the Tigers think he is, and how much they want to push him. There’s obviously a long way to go for Castro, but the potential is there to one day be a pretty ideal starting second baseman and #2 hitter.
Irresponsible Comparison - Alexi Amarista
12 - Dean Green – 1B/DH - 6'4, 255 - L/R - (23) 2012 - The Tigers took Dean Green in the 11th round in 2011 out of Barry University in Florida, where he transferred after leaving Oklahoma State early because he thought he would be drafted (he wasn’t). In his pro debut he hit .341/.395/.520 in 65 games in short-season ball, knocking out 28 extra-base hits. He kept on hitting last year, ending his season in high-A, and hitting .304/.375/.474 across three levels, with 41 extra-base hits.
The Good - It’s all about the bat with Green, who has the sort of pure hitting ability to post average near or above .300 in his prime, showing decent bat speed to go along with a good approach that allows him to get pitches he can drive. He’s just a big, strong guy who should be able to muscle out 15-20 homers a year in his prime.
The Bad - Green doesn’t offer much of a defensive profile at all. He’s too big and slow to play anywhere but first, and he doesn’t show good footwork or particularly soft hands at first base. That leaves him as a DH, which of requires him to hit and hit a ton.
2013 - Green actually performed better after being promoted to high-A, and as a guy who only needs to concentrate on his bat, I don’t see why the Tigers wouldn’t send him to AA Erie to begin the year. The Eastern league is a much better hitting environment than the Midwest and Florida State leagues, so if Green can handle the more advanced command and breaking stuff in AA, he could put up some gaudy numbers. The Tigers, of course, are a team with a truckload of DHs right now, so there may never be a spot for Green. If there were a spot open, he could even see the Majors by the end of the 2013 season.
Irresponsible Comparison - Matt Adams
13 - Hernan Perez - 2B - 6', 160 - R/R - (22) 2012 - Despite spending his second consecutive year in low-A West Michigan in 2011, the Tigers added Perez to the 40-man roster before the 2012 season. He wasn’t likely to stay on a 25-man roster, but the Tigers didn’t want to take that chance because they think Perez is a future MLB player. Tigers fans got an unexpected glimpse of him when he was called up to the Majors when Jhonny Peralta’s wife gave birth to twins. Perez got into two games in the Majors and even managed his first MLB hit, but he immediately went back to high-A, where he hit .261/.298/.338 with 20 extra base hits and 27 steals in 31 tries. He also spent the winter playing in Venezuela, posting a .222/.247/.267 line in 41 games.
The Good - Perez is a solid all-around player, but his best tools are his defense and arm, which play well at both shortstop and second base. Perez has the bat speed and strength to be a solid offensive player, but he doesn’t have a great approach at the plate – he’s quite aggressive – and he has some trouble recognizing breaking balls. Perez is an above-average runner, and he should remain that way for at least five years, showing the ability to steal 15+ bases each year.
The Bad - Perez has some pop, but it remains mostly doubles power, he didn’t really make much progress with his pitch recognition and patience last year, and some scouts question how well he takes instruction. With no real carrying tool, Perez profiles more as a classic utility infielder.
2013 - Despite the appearance of a somewhat lackluster season, Perez posted numbers that were pretty comparable to his 2011 season in low-A. He’ll be the everyday second baseman at Erie this year, and depending on what happens with #15 prospect Jeff Kobernus, Perez is just an injury to Omar Infante away from being a starter in the Majors. He’s far more likely to be a bit player than a regular, but he does have to raw ability to be a decent starter if everything clicks. He could be on the 25-man roster by 2014.
Irresponsible Comparison - Ryan Theriot
14- Ramon Cabrera - C – 5’8, 195 - B/R - (23) 2012 - For all intents and purposes, Cabrera was the Tigers’ second round pick in 2009, because he was recently acquired in a trade from the Pirates for Andy Oliver, for whom the Tigers paid $1.5 million to pry away from Oklahoma State. In reality, certified scumbag Rene Gayo signed Cabrera for the Pirates for $100,000 back in 2008. He put himself on the prospect map in 2011 by winning the Florida State League batting title with a .343/.410/.471 line, and he followed it up last year with a .278/.343/.370 line in AA. He also saw action in the Venezuelan Winter League, posting .267/.309/.333 line in 32 games. Defensively, he committed 4 errors, allowed 5 passed balls, and caught 20 of 100 potential base stealers.
The Good -Cabrera has a preternatural ability to put his bat on the ball, and more than that, he can consistently drive pitches to the outfield gaps. He shows solid mobility behind the plate, good game management, and he blocks pitches well. He also runs pretty well for a catcher, although he’s still a below-average runner.
The Bad -The biggest negative to Cabrera’s game is his arm, which is fringe-average. Unfortunately, a weak arm is basically a death sentence for catchers, unless you have power. Cabrera has a stocky build that suggests a little hidden power, and his father was a slugger in Japan, but he hasn’t shown any signs of in-game pop. There aren’t many starting catchers out there who lack power and arm strength, so he’s likely relegated to backup duty.
2013 - Hitting baseballs is hard, and Cabrera has shown that he can do that at an above-average level, so he’ll be given the chance to develop other skills. With the acquisition of Brayan Pena, and Bryan Holaday’s above-average defense, Cabrera doesn’t really have a great path to the Majors, but he’ll head to Toledo with a chance to earn a shot at being the backup in 2014. He’ll never be an everyday catcher, but he can be a backup for someone, and depth at catcher is something every team craves, so he retains a good deal of value.
Irresponsible Comparison - Hector Sanchez
15 Jeff Kobernus – 2B – 6’2, 210 - R/R - (24) 2012 - The Nationals drafted Kobernus out of Cal in the second round in 2009 (50th overall), eight picks before the Tigers took Andy Oliver. He spent 3+ seasons working his way through the Nats system, reaching AA last year, where he hit .282/.325/.333 with 42 steals in 53 tries in 82 games. Unfortunately, He spent a good portion of the year on the disabled list, and injuries have dogged him throughout his pro career. The Nationals didn’t protect him, and the Tigers worked out a deal with the Red Sox to take him in the rule-5 draft in exchange for AAA utility man Justin Henry.
The Good - The tool that stands out for Kobernus is his speed, which grades out as at least plus, and plays up even more because of excellent baserunning instincts. He’s a contact-oriented hitter, and he has the ability to hit .270 or better in his prime. He’s one of those guys who goes all-out, all the time, and he’s a solid defender at 2nd.
The Bad - Kobernus has a little bit of pop, but power isn’t gonna be part of his game, and he’s not terribly patient at the plate, so getting on base isn’t really a part of his game either. He doesn’t really have the range or arm to play on the left side of the infield, and he hasn’t played in the outfield as a pro.
2013 - I mention that he hasn’t played in the outfield because that’s where the Tigers are planning on playing him. And as a rule-5 draftee, he’ll need to stay on the 25-man roster all year. That gives him the inside track to become the right-handed platoon partner for Andy Dirks sits. I’m pretty skeptical that he makes the team this year, but he’ll certainly get a long look in spring training, and if he proves versatile enough he might be able to give the Tigers a bit of what Don Kelly and Quintin Berry gave them last year.
Irresponsible Comparison - Darin Mastroianni
16 - Bryan Holaday - C - 6', 205 - R/R - (25) 2012 - The Tigers took Holaday out of TCU in the 6th round back in 2010, and his path to the Majors has been relatively quick and straightforward. He begin in high-A in 2010, AA in 2011, and he spent all of last year in Toledo, except for six games spent with the Tigers. He hit .240/.312/.320 in Toledo, and picked up 3 hits in 12 ABs for Detroit. Defensively, he made 8 errors, committed 4 passed balls, and threw out 34% of base stealers in Toledo.
The Good - Holaday has always won high marks for his defense, and D continues to be his one standout tool. He’s a terrific leader, he works very well with pitchers, and he has a strong, accurate arm. He does have some raw power, but it’s not terribly usable, and he’s a grinder at the plate.
The Bad - For being an above-average defender, Holaday still has some issues blocking balls in the dirt. He’s not much of a hitter, figuring to post averages in the .220-.240 range, and he doesn’t have great bat speed, making it hard for him to use his power. He’s slow, even for a catcher.
2013 - Holaday has always had the profile of a backup catcher, and it briefly looked like he’d be the primary backup in Detroit this year, but then the Tigers went out and signed Brayan Pena. Holaday will return to Toledo and split time with Ramon Cabrera, but he figures to spend some time in Detroit again if and when Avila or Pena gets hurt. He could forge a long career as a backup, and don’t be surprised if he’s a manager at some point in the future.
Irresponsible Comparison - Drew Butera
17 - Dixon Machado - SS - 6'1, 170 - R/R - (21) 2012 - Machado has been in the Tigers system since his age-17 season in 2009, but progress has been fairly slow, so he hasn’t made it out of A-ball yet. Last year he hit just .195/.283/.252, with 23 steals in 28 tries, but the Tigers still added him to their 40-man roster after the season.
The Good - Machado earns 70 grades for his defense at shortstop, showing terrific range, good hands, and quality footwork, and he also has a plus-plus arm that he loves to show off. He’s also an above-average to plus runner, and he should be able to steal 15+ bases a year in his prime. He shows some of the best plate discipline in the system, and he makes contact fairly easily.
The Bad - Machado has no power. None. I’m not just talking about the ability to hit homers or doubles, I’m talking about the ability to get the ball out of the infield in the air. He did manage 19 extra base hits last year (up from 3 in 2011), but unless he gains significant strength, he’ll never be able to hit for enough of an average to be a regular.
2013 - The prospect world is filled with toolsy guys who never develop the contact skills to use their tools in the Majors (Cale Iorg comes to mind). Machado is a bit different though. He has three above-average or better tools, and his contact skills and patience hint at an at least usable hit tool. But his lack of any sort of pop completely negates his hitting, and if you can’t crack .200 in high-A, you’re not gonna do it in the Majors. He’ll almost certainly return to Lakeland, but I suppose the Tigers would also consider sending him to AA, seeing as Suarez is also ready for high-A. If he somehow gets more physical and shows he can at least keep pitchers honest, then he could potentially be the Tigers Opening Day starter at shortstop in 2014. The fact that I’ve ranked him 17th should tell you how unlikely that scenario is, however.
Irresponsible Comparison - Wilson Valdez
18 – James Robbins - 1B – 6’, 225 – L/L (22) 2012 -The Tigers paid Robbins about $230K to yank him away from his commitment to Washington State back in the 30th round in 2009, and he has been moving a level at a time since then. He spent all of last year in high-A Lakeland, where he posted a .237/.295/.382 line, albeit with an astronomical 171 strikeouts in 124 games. He’s been spending the winter playing baseball in Australia, where he currently sports a .298/.347/.461 line.
The Good - Aside from Moya, Robbins probably has the most raw power in the system, showing the ability to go yard to all fields, and hitting monster homers to the pull field. He’s never gonna hit for a high average, but it’s still kind of remarkable to even hit .237 when you’re striking out in 36% of your ABs. And for as bad as those Ks are, his 37 walks last year are 7 more than he had in his first three seasons as a pro, so he may have made some minor strides with his patience. He also has a really strong arm, though he doesn’t get to use it much at first.
The Bad - Obviously the strikeouts are ridiculous, and guys who swing out of their shoes at everything they see rarely make the Majors unless they also have elite contact skills. Robbins does not have elite contact skills. He’s not a strong defender at first base, he’s a well below-average runner, and he doesn’t have an ideal body, though he has apparently improved his conditioning lately.
2013 - Robbins will head to AA this year, which should be an extremely difficult test for him. It’s likely to be a sink-on-swim year for him in which he finally adjusts his approach, or he fails miserably. If by some chance he does make (big) strides, his power could potentially make him a second-division regular in the Majors day. I’m not holding my breath.
Irresponsible Comparison - Chris Parmelee
19 - Tyler Gibson - OF - 6'2, 190 - L/R - (19) 2012 - The Tigers grabbed Gibson in the 15th round in 2011, giving him $500K to keep him away from Georgia Tech. He signed late, and was only able to get into for GCL games that season. He returned to rookie ball last year and hit .167/.295/.253 in 52 games, with 30 walks and 68 Ks, and 18 steals in 25 tries.
The Good - If not the best pure athlete in the system, Gibson is certainly among the best 3-4. He’s a legit plus runner, sometimes earning even higher grades for his speed, and he should be able to use those wheels to steal 20+ bases and play solid outfield D. Gibson also has very good bat speed and shows plus raw power when he makes contact. He was a shortstop in high school, and he has above-average arm strength that should play well in right field.
The Bad - Gibson remains incredibly raw in every aspect of his game. He has trouble recognizing breaking balls and changeups, and at times he expands the zone too much to sting the ball. His reads and routes in the outfield are still very rough, and he’ll probably fill out enough to be forced to a corner in a few year, which means he’ll have to maximize hit hitting ability.
2013 - While I’m sure the Tigers had hoped Gibson would make a bit more progress last year than he did, there were some small signs of him translating his tools into skills, particularly with regard to drawing walks and stealing bases. Unless he has a remarkable spring training, he’ll be held back until short-season ball begins, possibly heading back to the Gulf Coast League, or perhaps being challenged in Connecticut. There’s no rush with this kid, and the Tigers would be wise to take things slowly, because he still has a very high ceiling. He could easily be a top-5 prospect in the system at this time next year, but he could also be completely off the list.
Irresponsible Comparison - Michael Saunders
20 - Franklin Navarro - C - 5'10, 180 - B/R - (18) 2012 -The Tigers signed Navarro out of Venezuela in 2011, though it was a bit late for him to get into any regular action. He did get into 11 games in the 2011 Venezuela Liga Paralela, hitting just .160 in that time. He bounced back in a big way in the Venezuelan Summer League last year, however, hitting .315/.360/.452 and finishing among the league leaders in hits, total bases, average, OBP, SLG, and leading the league with 19 doubles. He also returned to the Liga Paralela this year, hitting .304/.364/.420 in 18 games. Defensively in the VSL, he made 3 errors, allowed 4 passed balls, and threw out 28 of 85 potential basestealers (33%).
The Good - Navarro’s stats give a good indication of his hitting skills. At the plate he shows a natural feel for making contact, and he can sting the ball to the gaps when he hits it square. He’s a little small right now, but he figures to have an ideal catcher’s body when he fills out in a few years. He has good natural arm strength, and has the tools to be an above-average defender in the future.
The Bad - Navarro remains understandably raw in most aspects of his game. He’s a switch hitter, but he shows much more current ability hitting left-handed (.335) than right-handed (.227), and he has a tendency to get a bit wild at the plate, evidenced by his 51 Ks and just 16 walks. He probably won’t ever be a guy who hits more than 10-12 homers, and defensively he needs to clean up everything, from his footwork and throwing motion to his framing and game management.
2013 - It’s never a great idea to get too crazy about rookie-ball stats, but posting good numbers is always better than posting bad numbers. Navarro is years away from making an impact in the Majors, and he’ll have to make solid adjustments at every level to maximize his tools. He figures to make his stateside debut this season in the Gulf Coast League, and he’ll probably be brought along slowly. I’d expect him to spend at least two years in short-season ball, but he does have the raw tools to move faster than that. If all goes well, he’s looking at an MLB debut at some point in 2017.
Irresponsible Comparison - Hector Sanchez
Others of Note
Aaron Westlake - 1B - 6'4, 235 - L/R - (24) - Strong and patient, but not making the progress I'd like to see from a 24-year-old.
Jamie Johnson - OF - 5'9, 180 - L/R - (25) - Solid all-around outfielder with plus defense and good patience.
Brandon Loy - SS - 6', 190 - R/R - (22) - All-glove, no-bat shortstop.
Jason King - 3B - 6', 215 - B/R - (23) - Athletic kid with some pop, hampered by injuries.
David Gonzalez - SS - 5'10, 140 - R/R - (19) - Toolsy shortstop with the ability to be a plus defender.
Steven Fuentes - SS - 5'11, 180 - B/R - (17) - Ultra athletic, ultra raw SS. Having a great winter though.
Miguel Paulino - OF - 6'1, 185 - R/R - (19) - Speedy and athletic, but raw.
Rashad Brown - OF - 5'11, 180 - L/L - (19) - Like Paulino, but fro the left side.
Alwin Delgado - 3B - 6'3, 175 - R/R - (20) - Toolsy former SS. Raw.
Brett Harrison - 3B - 6', 185 - R/R - (20) - Raw. Rawley. Rawsonville.
Javier Betancourt - 2B - 5'10, 175 - (17) - Precocious hitter with good all-around game.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 8, 2014 14:47:25 GMT -5
Te 2014 rankings
Pitchers (from 3/31/14)
So hey, sorry about not posting this as early as I normally do, but it turns out that it's hard to find time to write about baseball when you have a newborn. In fact, I didn't actually write most of what's below, but instead used the voice recognition on my iPhone to dictate player information as I drove to and from work. This resulted in some pretty spectacularly misheard statements, like "but guys like ceramic Tenda terrible blow a hitter so late but seems to be the place for him."
As always I remind you that I am not a scout, I don’t get to see many of the players in person, and I didn’t even play baseball past 9th grade. Most of what I write is based on online research, prospect books, video, and some personal viewing. I simply enjoy writing about prospects as an extension of my love of baseball, and I figure some of you may like to read this stuff while you're on the toilet, or whatever. If you're looking for more informed analysis, I strongly encourage you to check out the prospect list at Bless You Boys - through Twitter I've come to know the guy who writes those evaluations, and he does a fantastic job covering prospects. It's the best free information on Tigers prospects out there by far. Also give him a follow on Twitter @tigersprospects. I've actually not read any of his previews yet so as to avoid any unknowing plagiarism, and I'm looking forward to reading them myself and seeing where I screwed up.
My format is the same as last year. I’ll let you know how a player did last season, tell you about his strengths and weaknesses, give some info on what to expect this year, and then offer an irresponsible player comparison. A quick note on player comps…most respectable prospect evaluators stay away from them because they tend to set unrealistic expectations, and can be really lazy -- seriously, every single right-handed pitcher who is taller than 6’2 and has hit the high-90s gets compared to Justin Verlander – but again, I am neither respectable nor a legitimate prospect evaluator, and I think it’s fun trying to find good comps.
Overview
The Tigers have a poor farm system. That’s not a huge shock, because they haven’t had a good farm system since the Verlander, Zumaya, Granderson, Humberto Sanchez days. The biggest thing holding the system back is a lack of impact talent. They actually have some solid depth now, particularly in terms of starting pitching, middle infielders, and of course, relievers. But the starters are mostly back-of-the-rotation types, and the infielders are mostly second baseman, which is troublesome because if you can’t stick at the keystone, there isn’t really anywhere else for you to go. So then, let’s get to it…I’ll start with the pitching prospects, and then move on to the position players.
Last-year’s rankings 1 –Bruce Rondon - Majors 2- Casey Crosby 3 – Jake Thompson 4 – Tommy Collier 5 – Drew VerHagen 6 – Joe Rogers 7 – Edgar De la Rosa 8 – Endrys Briceno 9- Will Clinard 10- Logan Ehlers 11- Brenny Paulino 12- Melvin Mercedes 13- Luke Putkonen - Majors 14- Tyler Stohr - Released 15- Luis Marte - Released 16- Jordan John 17- Kyle Ryan 18- Hudson Randall - Released 19- Montreal Robertson 20- Chad Smith
2014
1 - Jonathon Crawford - RHP - 6'2, 205 - (22) - splits
2013 – The Tigers were connected to Crawford for much of last spring, and thus it was no surprise when they drafted him with their first pick in last year's draft, 20th overall. Crawford was basically an outfielder as a freshman, pitching only 3.2 innings, and he first appeared on the prospect radar between his freshman and sophomore year at Florida when he pitched well in the Northwoods League, a wood-bat summer league the Tigers seem to scout heavily. Then he blew up as a sophomore, going 6-2, 3.13 in 14 starts for the Gators, highlighted by throwing a no-hitter in a NCAA Regional against Bethune-Cookman. Had he been eligible to leave for the Majors after that year, he may have been a top-10 pick. His stuff backed up a bit as a junior, and he went 3-6, 3.84 in 15 starts. He pitched sparingly in his pro ball debut, authoring a 0-2, 1.89 line with 21 Ks and 9 walks in 19 IP at class-A short-season Connecticut.
The Good – Crawford fits the mold as a classic power pitcher Tigers draft pick. As a sophomore his fastball was consistently in the mid-90s and flashing higher, and he showed a very sharp slider. As I mentioned above, his stuff backed up a bit as a junior, with his fastball sitting more in the 89-93 range and flashing up to 95 or so. He still had good sinking action on the pitch, and his slider was still a plus pitch.
The Bad – It’s never great to see a guy’s stuff take a step back, and Crawford’s changeup has never been a terribly effective pitch. Scouts are also concerned about his delivery -- he has a wrist wrap and he is kind of stiff when he lands -- which they think prevents him from having better command, and his body is maxed out so it’s not as if he’ll grow into more velocity. There is a chance he ultimately ends up in the bullpen.
2014 – As an advanced college arm, I would expect Crawford to begin the year in high-A Lakeland, although he’s a Florida kid so it’s possible the organization will send him to West Michigan just to see how he handles being in a foreign environment. The Tigers no doubt saw a kid with raw arm strength and good stuff, and think they can help him improve his command while regaining the form of his sophomore year. Even if he doesn’t find his old stuff, he still has the potential to be a #3 starter -- and if you squint really hard, you could see a #2 in the form of a kid with two pitches that grade as plus or better, and an average changeup. If all else fails, he should at least be a solid late-inning reliever.
Irresponsible Comparison – Ervin Santana/Aaron Crow
2 - Robbie Ray - LHP - 6'2, 170 - (22) - splits
2013 – The Nationals signed Ray in the 12th round in 2010, pulling him away from an Arkansas commitment by giving him an $800K bonus. He pitched well in his first full season of pro ball, posting a 3.13 ERA, striking out 95, walking 38, and giving up 71 hits in 89 innings in low-A. Things kind of fell apart for him in 2012 when his velocity and strikeout rate dipped in high-A ball, while his walk rate, hits, and homers all jumped. However, his velocity returned last year and he performed much better in his return to high-A, and he kept things moving in the right direction when he jumped up to AA at mid-season. He finished the year 11-5, 3.36 with 160 strikeouts, 62 walks, and 116 hits allowed across 142 IP at two levels. The highlight of his year was almost certainly his complete-game, 3-hit, 11 K shutout of the Tigers AA affiliate on July 11th, a performance that no doubt put him on the radar for Tigers scouts.
The Good – Ray’s calling card is his fastball, which sits in the 90-94 range with very good life, and spikes into the mid-90s several times a game. His changeup shows good deception and sink, and it figures to be an above-average pitch for him in time. He’s athletic, he does a pretty good job of keeping the ball low in the zone, and he has always done a fine job of missing bats, posting a career minor-league K-rate of 23% (for reference, Verlander has about a 23% career K rate in the Majors).
The Bad – To this point the big issue with Ray has been command and control. His walk rates have hovered around 10% for his minor league career (or about 4BB/9) which is about as high as is acceptable for starters these days. He also doesn’t have a reliable breaking ball at this point, although it does show flashes of being a solid pitch. And as I mentioned in Crawford’s profile, it’s always a little bit concerning when a guy inexplicably loses velocity, although Ray did get his back.
2014 – The Tigers are an aggressive organization, and they will almost certainly need a few spot starts in the Bigs this year, so they will most likely bump Ray up to AAA. He’ll need to refine his pitches a bit more and work on that command, but if things all come together for him he can be a solid #3-4 starter who should give you close to 200 IP a year.
Irresponsible Comparison – Felix Doubront
3 - Jake Thompson - RHP - 6'4, 235 - (20) - splits
2013 – The 2011 signing of Prince Fielder meant the Tigers had to wait nearly 100 picks before drafting their first player in 2012. They eventually took Thompson 91st overall out of Rockwall-Heath High School in Rockwall, Texas, and so far it’s looking like a nice bit of scouting. The Tigers have been easing him into professional ball, as he saw just 28.1 rookie-ball innings in 2012, and he made just 16 starts in low-A last year after being held back in extended spring training. He pitched very well when he was on the mound though, compiling a 3-3, 3.13 line with 79 hits, 32 walks, and 91 Ks over 83.1 IP.
The Good – Thompson looks the part of an MLB starter, with thick thighs and a big, sturdy frame, and his fastball is already at least an MLB-average pitch. He sits in the 88-92 range, can pop up to 94 or so, and a big leg kick and low ¾ arm slot help the pitch play up by adding some deception and arm-side run. Thompson also throws a hard slider with late break that flashes as an average pitch and projects to be at least a plus pitch with more refinement. He added a slower curve last year that shows promise, and he shows feel for a changeup, even though it lags behind a bit. He repeats his mechanics well, and should have at least average command in the future.
The Bad - The main knock on Thompson at this point is that his body is already maxed out, so it’s unlikely that he’ll ever gain any more velo on his fastball, and possible he may even lose a tick as his innings start to pile up. Beyond that he just needs to continue to refine his secondary offerings and command, and prove durable enough to handle a larger workload.
2014 - I suspect the Tigers will take the kid gloves off this year and let Thompson begin the season in high-A Lakeland, with the goal of getting him about 20 starts and 125 IP this year. His ceiling isn’t tremendously high, but with his sturdy build and the chance to have two above-average pitches and two solid-average pitches, Thompson projects to be an innings-eating #3/4 starter in his prime. If he impresses this year in high-A he may even sneak into the back end of a few top-100 lists, and if he progresses according to plan we could see him make a spot start in the Majors as soon as 2015.
Irresponsible Comparison – Trevor Cahill
4 - Endrys Briceno - RHP - 6'5, 171 - (22) - splits
2013 - The Tigers signed Briceno as a skinny, 17-year-old kid out of Venezuela back in 2009, and he has been slowly making his way through the system since. He hasn’t posted an ERA under 4.47 since his first year in the Venezuelan Summer League, and that 4.47 ERA came last season in Low-A, where he also gave up 124 hits, walked 51, and stuck out just 65 batters over 25 starts and 116.2 IP. He also pitched a bit over the winter, giving up 3 runs and striking out 2 in 4.1 innings in the Venezuelan Winter League, and giving up 11 hits, 3 runs, and striking out 6 in 12 innings of action in the Venezuelan Liga Paralela. But Briceno is a pretty good example of why scouting the box score can get you into real trouble.
The Good – The Tigers have always liked Briceno’s frame and arm action, projecting him to gain velocity if and when he filled out. He still kind of looks like a coat hanger in a jersey, but he has put on some weight, and his fastball now sits comfortable in the low-90s, frequently hits 94-95, and he throws it with relative ease. He also has a no-sh!t changeup that I’ve seen flash plus several times, showing good sink and run away from left-handed hitters. There’s still plenty more room on his frame for added muscle, so it’s not crazy to think he may throw even harder soon.
The Bad – Briceno has never shown much of a breaking ball, and while his curve has gotten slightly better, it’s hard to envision it ever becoming more than a below-average pitch. And while I mentioned that it’s not good to scout the box score, at some point it would be nice to see results match his raw stuff, because Briceno gives up far more hits and gets far fewer strikeouts than he should. And finally, with his skinny physique and potential lack of a useable third pitch, an eventual move to the bullpen is a real possibility.
2014 – The Tigers have steadily increased the workload for Briceno as they’ve bumped him up each level, and he appears poised to join Thompson and Crawford in what should be a very fun rotation at high-A Lakeland. The raw tools are there for him to take a big jump this season, but he needs to continue to refine his control and sharpen his breaking ball. If he finds his breaking ball, Briceno could eventually be a mid-rotation starter. But the more likely scenario is that the curve remains a below-average pitch and he settles in as either a back-of-the-rotation type, or a late-inning reliever. If he has a good year, the Tigers will likely protect him on their 40-man roster for 2015.
Irresponsible Comparison - Ross Detwiler/Tyler Clippard
5- Drew VerHagen - RHP - 6'6, 230 - (23) - splits
2013 - VerHagen had a nomadic college career, moving from Oklahoma as a freshman, to a junior college where he and his team won the JC World Series, and finally landing at Vanderbilt. The Tigers took him in the fourth round in 2012, and he spent most of his first year in pro baseball in the Gulf Coast league, making six starts in eight appearances overall, with two appearances in the Florida State League. He returned to the FSL last year and pitched well enough for the Tigers to bump him up to AA Erie in June. He was one of the organization’s most effective farmhands last year, finishing with an overall line of 7–8, 2.90, while giving up 102 hits, walking 44 and striking out 75 and 127.1 innings.
The Good – The Tigers drafted VerHagen because they loved his fastball, which he throws consistently in the low-to-mid 90s, and he can reach back and get 97 on occasion. He generates tons of groundballs by using his height to pound the bottom of the zone, and he can also impart cutting action or two-seem movement when he wants to. VerHagen also throws a curveball that flashes as an average or even plus pitch on occasion, and he generally throws strikes.
The Bad – VerHagen’s curve just isn't consistent enough at this point to be a reliable pitch, and his change lags even further behind, making him very vulnerable to left-handed hitters (small sample, but his Erie ERA was 4.15 against lefties, and 2.21 against righties). His lagging secondary offerings are the main reason for his low strikeout totals, and having watched Porcello for 5 seasons now, we know what can happen to guys who don't miss bats. There's some funkiness to his delivery, with his windup including a big leg kick, a short arm swing, and a wrist wrap, and some scouts think he may be better off working out of the bullpen.
2014 – VerHagen pitched very well at double-A Erie, and he’s a virtual lock to begin the year in Toledo. He and Ray are Detroit's most advanced starting pitching prospects at this point, and it's not out of the question to think that he may come up to the Tigers for a spot start later in the season. It's also not out of the question that the Tigers, with their bullpen issues, decide to just bring VerHagen up and just let him unleash his hard fastball on hitters to get ground balls. If he stays as a starter, he's not likely to be more than a number 4-5 man in the rotation because of his inability to get strikeouts. If he moves to the bullpen he could probably be a solid situational guy and seventh-inning man.
Irresponsible Comparison – Charlie Morton/Anthony Swarzak
6 - Corey Knebel – RHP – 6’3, 195 – (22) - splits
2013 - Knebel served as the Texas Longhorns’ closer for three years before the Tigers used the 39th overall pick last year to draft him – making him the first player ever drafted with a pick that had been acquired via a trade (part of the Sanchez/Turner deal). As a freshman he tied Houston Street’s team record with 19 saves. He was solid again as a sophomore, but he struggled a bit as a junior, with his walks nearly doubling, and he was suspended twice – once for violating team rules, and once for providing urine to help a teammate pass a drug test. The Tigers sent Knebel directly to low-A West Michigan where he completely overwhelmed the competition, going 2-1, 0.87 with 15 saves in 31 innings pitched, giving up just 14 hits and 10 walks against 41 strikeouts. He also pitched in the Arizona Fall League, where he gave up 3 ER in 8.2 IP, but also put up 7 scoreless outings.
The Good – Knebel features a very good two-pitch mix, led by a hard fastball which he throws in the mid-90s and can get up to 97 or 98, and a curveball that is a legit plus-plus pitch when it’s on because he can throw it for strikes or bury in the dirt and get swings and misses. He has a strange, somewhat violent delivery where he dips his back shoulder, but that helps him hide the ball and adds some deception.
The Bad – Knebel’s fastball is said to have some explosive movement, but when I've seen him pitch it looks pretty straight, and hitters were squaring it up too often. His curve also goes through stretches where it doesn’t bite as much, and while his delivery may help with the deception, to me it's sort of screams future shoulder trouble.
2014 - Knebel is absolutely on the fast track and has the stuff to pitch in a major-league bullpen very soon. After he was drafted the Tigers entertained the thought of turning him into a starter because he also throws slider and a changeup. However, given the team’s need for late inning relievers, and his violent delivery, it stands to reason that he’ll continue to serve only as a reliever in the minors. I suspect the Tigers will send him to AA to begin the year, and if he continues to have success we could even see a mid-season promotion to the big leagues, just like fellow former Longhorn Chance Ruffin. If he harnesses all his stuff he figures to be no worse than a setup man, and he definitely has the potential to be a closer.
Irresponsible Comparison – Bobbie Parnell
7 - Kevin Ziomek - LHP – 6’3, 190 – (22) - splits
2013 - The Tigers love drafting players from Vanderbilt, and they did it again in 2013 with the lefty Kevin Ziomek. He had a fairly inconsistent college career, getting some talk as a potential first rounder at times as a freshman but running into mechanical issues at times as a sophomore. He had a very successful junior season though, going 11-3 and posting a 2.12 ERA in earning third team All-American honors. He threw 117 innings for Vanderbilt, and the Tigers shut him down after only 8 innings and short-season Connecticut, so there wasn't much to his professional debut.
The Good - When his mechanics are right, Ziomek shows three pictures that are least average and sometimes flash above average. His fastball is generally 88–91, but he can apparently get up to 93 occasionally. He shows good feel for a changeup that he throws anywhere from the low-to-mid 80s with the same arm speed and arm slot as his fastball. His breaking ball is kind of a sweepy slurve, but when it was on in college he would often start it well outside the zone and have it break over the plate with no one even swinging at it. He has a strange, rotational delivery where he starts out towards first-base, and he kind of has a hesitation in the middle of the pitch, but this helps add deception, particularly against left-handed hitters.
The Bad - That same strange pitching motion also leads to him completely losing his mechanics at times, which turns his fastball into a mid-80s meatball and limits the effectiveness of all his other pitches. His breaking ball might not be terribly effective against professional hitters, particularly right-handed hitters who may get a longer chance to see the ball. And as with many of the pitchers on this list, scouts wonder if his mechanics might lead Ziomek into being more of a reliever than a starting pitcher.
2014 - As a left-handed 2nd rounder from the SEC, there's a tendency to compare Ziomek to Drew Smyly. Ziomek doesn't have quite the velocity, and isn't as advanced with his command-and-control, but he will likely begin his career Hi-A, just as a Smyly did. The pitching-heavy 2013 draft is going to lead to some tough decisions for the Tigers in terms of where to send their starters, but guys like Ziomek tend to blow away low-A hitters, so Lakeland seems to be the place for him. If the organization can iron out his mechanics Ziomek figures to be another mid rotation type, but his funky delivery and sweepy breaking ball may eventually make him a left-handed specialist reliever. In either case he should move rather quickly and be ready to pitch in the majors by 2016.
Irresponsible Comparison – Scott Diamond
8 - Jeff Thompson - RHP – 6’6, 245 – (22) - splits
2013 - With a lack of starting pitching prospects a clear weakness in the system, the Tigers went after pitching hard in the 2013 draft, and in the 3rd round they selected Jeff Thompson out of Louisville. Like Ziomek before him, Thompson posted an 11-2 record and a low-2 ERA, and he was named his conference’s pitcher of the year. He threw 107 innings for Louisville, with batters hitting just .179 against him, and he racked up 113 strikeouts against just 34 walks. The Tigers sent him to low-A West Michigan, where he pitched another 45 innings, posting a 3.80 ERA and 42 strikeouts against 41 hits, and 19 walks. Don't confuse him with Jake Thompson, the #3 pitcher on this list. Thanks.
The Good - Jeff Thompson is a massive human being, standing a full 6’6 and 250 pounds, with a high waist, thick, muscular thighs, and long limbs. His fastball sits mostly in the low 90s and can get up to about 93 to 94, but with his large frame and extension it probably seems a little faster. He backs it up with a sharp slider that he throws around 83-84, and he's shown some feel for a changeup. He has clean mechanics and he's a very athletic kid who was also interested in football and basketball in high school.
The Bad - Thompson's fastball doesn't have a whole a lot of wiggle to it, and his clean delivery unfortunately seems to help hitters get a better view of the ball. While his slider can be really sharp, he hasn't shown a great aptitude for throwing it in the zone, and at some point professional hitters will stop chasing it when he throws in the dirt. While there is some projection for his changeup, it appears to be a pretty distant third pitch for him. And of course, as a Tigers draftee, there is some thought that he might work out better in the bullpen instead of being a starter.
2014 - I've already projected like four guys for the high-A Lakeland rotation, and while Thompson could probably pitch fairly well there, the Tigers just don't have room for everybody there. Thompson is still a little bit raw, so I figure they’ll send him to West Michigan for about half of the year before boosting him up to Lakeland when the 2014 Draft takes place. You can also probably count on some injuries or trades thinning out the starting pitcher ranks a little bit. If things work out, Thompson is yet another pitcher who profiles as a number three or number four starter, and of course if things don't work out he has two solid pitches that would make him a decent bullpen option. He's another guy who could be ready to make his major-league debut in 2016, but 2017 might be a safer bet.
Irresponsible Comparison – Mike Pelfrey
9 - Buck Farmer - RHP – 6’3, 220 – (23) - splits
2013 –The Tigers used their first seven picks in the 2013 draft on college pitchers, and as a fifth-round senior sign out of Georgia Tech, Farmer may have been the least glamorous of the lot. He went 9–5, 2.78 for the Yellow Jackets with 122 strikeouts in 113 innings. The Tigers sent him to short-season A-ball Connecticut after the draft, and he went 0–2, 3.09 with 32 hits, 7 walks and 33 strikeouts over 32 innings. His real name is George Runie Farmer.
The Good - Farmer commands four pitches that could all be average at the major-league level, and his changeup might even be a little bit better than average. His fastball is going to be around 88 to 91, but I've heard reports of him bumping it up to 95 in the past. He has the big, durable frame befitting a man named Buck Farmer, and he figures to be able to eat a lot of innings.
The Bad - There just isn't any projection left in Farmer. His body is maxed out and he's already 23, so he’s not going to gain any more velocity. His delivery is okay, but he's got sort of a two-part leg kick where he brings it up and then swings it out a little bit, which seems to make him land a little early. It doesn't seem to affect his control though, so who knows. His slider and curve are usable, but fringy.
2014 – I’ve mentioned before the Tigers face sort of a roster crunch at low-A and high-A because they have so many starting pitchers now, so I don't know where Farmer is going to begin the year. He's certainly ready for Lakeland though, and he’s already 23 so they may want to get a move on things. It's possible the Tigers may end up going with a sort of tandem starting arrangement were two guys go back-and-forth between starting and relieving, with one guy pitching for five innings one week and then coming in to relieve the next game. There's nothing glamorous about Farmer, and everything will have to break right for him to be anything more than a fifth starter, but his floor isn’t terribly low, and he’s almost assured of being at least be a long reliever.
Irresponsible Comparison – A.J. Griffin
10- Joe Jimenez - RHP – 6’3, 220 – (19) - splits
2013 – Jimenez is a really interesting story, as was considered one of the better arms available from Puerto Rico for the 2013 draft, but apparently some unreasonable bonus demands led to him not getting drafted at all. He evidently didn't want to play at Florida International, so the Tigers swooped in and signed him as a free agent for a low six-figure bonus. The Tigers sent him to the Gulf Coast League, where he tore up the competition in eight outings, going 3-0, 0.50, while giving up just 9 hits and 6 walks against 24 strikeouts over 18 innings.
The Good - Jimenez is a big, strong kid with really thick legs, and he reminds me of fellow Tigers prospect Jake Thompson in many respects. Perfect Game had this to say about him:Steady low 90's fastball, topped out at 93 mph, maintained velocity well, fastball mostly straight with occasional running action. Introduced new slider since last few events, good pitch with late break and good feel in the strike zone, low 70's curveball is a "get me over pitch" and effective in the right counts. Gets nice movement and sink on change up but can maintain arm speed better. Keeps getting better every time we see him, velocity is up, slider is a promising pitch and beginning to show nice pitchability. The Bad - As with Thompson, there isn't much projection left in Jimenez, so it's not likely that he'll gain any more velocity. Beyond that, it's mostly a matter of him sharpening his secondary offerings, improving his command, and getting some innings under his belt.
2014 – While I think Jimenez is ready for the challenge of A-ball hitters, I doubt the Tigers will send him to West Michigan immediately, because they'll probably want to keep him under 100 innings or so. They could keep him in extended spring training for two months like they did with Thompson, or they could wait until the short season leagues begin and send him to Connecticut. With his sold mix of pitches and sturdy build he projects to be an innings-eating #3-4 starter, but not for another 4 years or so.
Irresponsible Comparison – Juan Nicasio
11- Zac Reininger - RHP – 6’3, 170 – (21) - splits
2013 – Reininger is one of the more intriguing arms the Tigers drafted in 2013, because he actually has some upside. They took him in the eighth round out of Hill Junior College in Texas, where he struck out 85 batters and walked just 8 in 106.1 IP, and finished with a 10-5 mark and a 1.95 ERA in 16 appearances and 13 starts. The Tigers sent him to short-season A-ball Connecticut, where he dominated, serving as the closer and finishing 1-2 with a flat 1 ERA and 10 saves in 27 innings pitched, giving up just 17 hits and 6 walks against 32 strikeouts.
The Good - Though he served as a reliever, Reininger has four quality pitches that he throws for strikes. His fastball is mostly 88–90, but he reportedly ran it up to 93 last spring, he throws two breaking balls that both are quite effective and have solid break, and his changeup is usable. He has the frame to put on more weight and possibly gain a tick more velocity. He has long, flowing hair.
The Bad - There's not a whole lot to complain about just yet, though his future role is somewhat dependent upon him getting a little bit more velocity. As with most pitchers the Tiger draft, scouts are split on whether he should be a starter or reliever. He has long, flowing hair.
2014 – I believe the Tigers are going to continue to work him as a starter, even if the long-term plans are for him to relieve. He figures to begin the year in low-A West Michigan, even though he might be able to handle a more aggressive assignment. If you dream a little bit, you can see him gaining velocity and improving all the secondary pitches in becoming a solid number four starter, but if the Tigers fast track him as a reliever he could be a solid seventh-inning guy.
Irresponsible Comparison – Donovan Hand
12- Will Clinard - RHP – 6’4, 225 – (24) - splits
2013 – I mentioned how the Tigers like to grab pitchers out of Vanderbilt, right? Well, in addition to taking Ziomek in the second round last year, and VerHagen in the fourth round of 2012 they also took Clinard out of Vanderbilt in 19th round in 2012, and it looks like it might be kind of a steal. He split time between short season A-ball and West Michigan in 2012 and he dominated in both areas. The Tigers sent him to high-A to begin 2013 and once again he dominated, to the tune of a 1.59 ERA with 21 hits 5 walks and 23 strikeouts over 28.1 innings pitched. The Tigers bumped him up to double-A Erie, and things kind of fell apart for him with his walk rate exploding, and his ERA bumping all the way up to 5.50. He gave up 37 hits, walked 20, and struck out 26 in 34 innings.
The Good – Clinard’s cutter may be the single most effective secondary pitch of any arm in the entire organization, offering sharp late movement that batters have trouble picking up. He also throws a fastball in the 90-94 range, and he also a usable change and slider. He's a big, strong kid.
The Bad - Though he has four pitches, Clinard is reliever through and through because his change and slider and are nothing special. Having just a fastball and a cutter isn’t a great profile for a late-inning reliever, unless you’re Mariano Rivera, so he has to make sure he's commanding both pitches as well as possible. The drop off in production in AA is concerning, though the bump in both walks and hits suggests perhaps he was trying to be a little too fine and falling behind in counts instead of trusting his stuff.
2014 – It stands to reason that Clinard will head back to AA Erie to begin this year to see if he can conquer that league, and if he does the Tigers will likely bump him up to Triple-A Toledo. If he pitches well there too, there's no reason he can't help out in the major-league bullpen by 2015. He's most likely a seventh-inning guy.
Irresponsible Comparison – Former Tiger Casey Fien
13 - Anthony Castro - RHP – 6’0, 174 – (19) - splits
2013 – The Tiger signed Castro out of Venezuela shortly after he turned 16, and he spent the last two seasons there in the Venezuelan Summer League. He pitched quite effectively in both years, and last year especially, going 2-2, 2.73 and 13 games and 11 starts, giving up 45 hits and 17 walks against 55 strikeouts and 56 innings. He also added 30 IP in the Venezuelan Liga Paralela winter league where he got hit around a little bit, posting a 5.40 ERA and surrendering 28 hits and 12 walks against 20 strikeouts.
The Good – Castro is a classic Tigers premium velocity guy, sitting in the low 90s and popping up in the mid 90s already has a teenager. He has also shown some feel for curve that could potentially be an above average pitch, and he has a changeup that might also be workable one day. He's not tall guy but he still has room to get stronger and fill out, so he may be able to and get even more velocity, and he's already shown a decent feel for pitching with projection for solid control and command.
The Bad - There's not a lot the harp on just yet, because he hasn't even made his debut in the United States. And that's basically the main concern here. He hasn't faced advanced competition at all, and it's quite a minefield to get from rookie ball to the majors without getting injured or running into bouts of ineffectiveness. There's a tendency for guys like Castro to get labeled as bullpen arms, and that's certainly a possibility in the future.
2014 – Castro is a virtual certainty to spend the first half of the year in extended spring training before heading to the rookie level Gulf Coast League to start. Depending on how things go there he might spend 2015 in short-season A-ball, or he might head to low-A. He's one of the higher ceiling arms in the system, and at this point next year he could even be a top 5 prospect in the system, but he's still so far away that it's really hard to make any sort of projections.
Irresponsible Comparison – Esmil Rogers
14 - Melvin Mercedes - RHP - 6'3, 250 - (23) - splits
2013 – The Tigers signed Mercedes way back in 2008 is a 17-year-old out of Venezuela, and he's never started a game as a professional. He slowly made his way through the system, beginning in 2008 in the Venezuelan Summer LEague before blowing his arm out and having Tommy John surgery in 2010. He spent parts of four years in low-A West Michigan, often struggling with control issues. He seems to have fully recovered from his surgery and ironed out the control problems, and 2013 was his best year yet. He went 5-2, with a 1.19 ERA and over 53 innings between high-A Lakeland and AA Erie, giving up 46 hits and 14 walks against 36 strikeouts. He also went to the Dominican Winter League, where he was absolutely demolished to the tune of 6 hits, 4 walks, and 9 ER in 0.2 IP.
The Good – Mercedes throws a ferocious fastball that sits in the mid-90s and can bump up to the high 90s with extreme lateral movement that generates tons of ground balls. He also throws a short slider in the mid-to-high 80s that doesn't have much downward break, but it occasionally can flash is an above average pitch. He is unlikely to ever have plus command, but his control should be average.
The Bad – Even with all his velocity, Mercedes struggles to get swings and misses because he has sort of a stone-skipper delivery with a long arm swing and a low three-quarters arm slot that apparently lets hitters see the ball quite easily. His slider also doesn't get him many swings and misses because it doesn't have a ton of break to it, and sometimes seems more like a cutter. Scouts will say he has a bad body, but I'll just go ahead and say that he's too fat, with a giant, almost comically pudgy face. And depending on how you look at it, the surgery 2010 is either a good thing - because he got it out of the way – or bad thing, because it portends future arm trouble.
2014 - I'm not too crazy about Mercedes, but the Tigers added him to the 40-man roster this off-season because they believe in his arm and think he can pitch in the late innings. He pretty much dominated AA hitters, so there's a high probability that he begins in AAA this year. Even if he does return to AA he'll certainly be up in Toledo at some point, and it's not out of the question that he makes his major-league debut later this season, given the Tigers bullpen troubles. I see him as maybe a seventh-inning guy eventually, unless he really sharpens his slider, in which case he could be a setup man.
Irresponsible Comparison – Mitchell Boggs
15 - Montreal Robertson - RHP - 6'4, 220 - (23) - splits
2013 – Robertson is one of those really interesting scouting stories, and he could end up being a real steal for the Tigers. They signed him in the 29th round out of a tiny community college in Mississippi and gave him a $15K bonus. He spent 2011 between rookie ball and low-A short-season Connecticut working strictly as a reliever. He returned to Connecticut in 2012, but the Tigers stretched him out and got him nine starts. Last year he moved up to low-A West Michigan where he once again worked as a starter, going 3-7, with a 5.91 ERA, walking 40, striking out 40, and giving up a 87 hits in 74.2 innings. He also threw four innings in Lakeland.
The Good – Robertson is another guy where the stats don't tell the whole story. He is a big, strong kid with excellent athleticism, and he throws his fastball in the 92-95 range, and can bump up all the way to 98 with good sink and tailing action. He also throws a very short slider that seems more like a cutter, and he has changeup.
The Bad – Robertson's numbers were obviously bad, and that's due in large part to the fact that he's still pretty raw, he doesn't hold his velocity past a few innings, and his secondary offerings are very rudimentary. He's almost certain to end up in the bullpen.
2014 – The Tigers were using Robertson as a starter mostly to get him more experience and to try to improve his secondary pitches, but most think he's destined for the bullpen. They may send him back to low-A West Michigan to continue starting, because the rotation in Lakeland is obviously going to be crowded. However, if they're ready to make him a full-time reliever, he could probably head to Lakeland right now, and if all goes well could be up in AA by mid season. If he somehow irons out all the secondary stuff he could eventually become the back of the rotation starter, but it's more likely that he's a high velocity seventh-inning reliever.
Irresponsible Comparison - Ronald Belisario
16 - Tommy Collier - RHP - 6'2, 205 - (24) - splits
2013 - Another possible scouting find, Collier was a 22nd rounder in 2011 out of San Jacinto JC (once again, the alma mater of Patrick Swayze). He was terrific in his short-season debut in 2011, and nearly as good in low-A in 2012. He hit some significant bumps last year, however, as he began the season with three rough starts in high-A, giving up 10 ER in as many innings, before missing three months with a groin injury. He was much more effective when he returned, posting a 3.46 ERA in 10 high-A starts and only giving up more than 3 runs once. He also got one late-season AA start in which he gave up 3 runs in 5 innings, and the Tigers sent him to the hitter-friendly Arizona Fall League, where he posted a 0.64 ERA in 14 IP, giving up 11 hits and 2 walks against 10 strikeouts.
The Good - Collier’s best pitch is his sinking fastball that he throws in the 88-91 range, but he also shows signs of having two solid secondary offerings in his slider and his changeup. He had Tommy John surgery in 2010, and there were reports than his slider was a plus pitch before that, and I’ve also seen some reports that his changeup flashes as an above-average pitch occasionally. He has a solid build and clean mechanics, and the classic bulldog mentality on the mound.
The Bad - Nothing about Collier really stands out, and while his secondary stuff is decent, nothing he throws is really great at missing bats. His injury history is slightly concerning, and as usual, there's a decent chance he ends up in the bullpen.
2014 - I'm higher on Collier than most, but I really like his combination of decent stuff and his mentality on the mound. The Tigers will send him to AA to begin the year, and he'll probably anchor the rotation all season. He has a chance to move up too, if he pitches well, and it's probably not long before he's knocking on the door of the Majors as a potential emergency starter. I suspect he eventually becomes more of a long reliever, but I wouldn't count him out as a potential back-end of the rotation guy.
Irresponsible Comparison - Kevin Correia
17 - Kyle Lobstein - LHP - 6'3, 200 - (24) - splits
2013 - The Rays drafted Lobstein way back in 2008 in the second round out of a high school in Arizona, and he was slowly making his way through their system until 2013, when they made him available in the Rule 5 draft. The Mets took him, but then sent him to the Tigers for money in a prearranged deal. He didn't make the Tigers 25-man roster last season, but the Tigers then worked out a trade with the Rays, sending them Vanderbilt catcher Kirk Casali. Lobstein split his season between AA and AAA, finishing 13-7, 3.27 overall with 165 hits, 52 walks, and 148 Ks in 166.1 IP.
The Good – Lobstein doesn't wow anyone with this stuff, mixing a fringe-average fastball with a fringe-average curveball and a changeup that sometimes flashes as an above-average pitch. He has a good idea of what he's doing on the mound, and he shows pretty good command and control.
The Bad - The Rays took Lobstein because he flashed low-90s heat as a prep pitcher, but he never found that fastball again, and it probably will never be a weapon for him. Because his breaking ball isn't necessarily great, he really doesn't have a potential as a lefty relief specialist either, so he'll have to get by as a command-and-control lefty, which is always difficult.
2014 - Lobstein is ticketed for AAA again this year, and with the trade of José Alvarez, he is the number one emergency starter in the organization right now. He could get surpassed by Robby Ray or Drew VerHagan, but right now he's the only one with experience in AAA. His ceiling is probably as a long reliever, but he's workable as a spot starter for the forseeable future.
Irresponsible Comparison - Dallas Keuchel
18 - Casey Crosby - LHP - 6'5, 225 - (25) - splits
2013 - Crosby was a fifth rounder in the same 2007 draft class as Rick Porcello, so you're correct in feeling like he's been in the system forever. He has battled injuries and control problems for his entire career, missing almost all of 2008 after getting Tommy John surgery, and then again missing almost all of 2010 with arm soreness. He showed some promise in 2011 in AA, and then again in AAA in 2012, even making three starts in the Majors. He returned to AAA last season and once again missed time with arm trouble, and finished with a 2-5, 4.84 line, with 55 hits, 40 walks, and 60 strikeouts in 57.2 IP. After the season the Tigers finally made the decision to move him to the bullpen.
The Good – Crosby still has very good stuff, although his fastball that once hit 97 now sits in the 89-93 range for the most part. He backs that up with a looping curve that can be a plus pitch at times. He also has a below-average changeup, but he won't need it much anymore.
The Bad - Crosby has always suffered from inconsistent mechanics that he struggles to repeat, and those can probably be viewed as the major culprit behind both his injury troubles and his control problems. When he pitches he appears to be deliberately slowing himself down in an attempt to harness his control, so it never really seems like he's cutting the ball loose, and it often seems like his leg lands too early, leading to pitches high and away from right-handed hitters.
2014 - Crosby probably should have been moved to bullpen a year or more ago, but now that he's there he may finally be able to settle down and just let the ball fly. The Tigers could definitely use a lefty power arm in their bullpen, so if he shows any signs of putting things together, he could see some time in Detroit this year. Control will likely always be an issue for him, but if he can harness it just a bit he could at least be a lefty specialist, and possibly a 7th-inning arm.
Irresponsible Comparison - Nick Hagadone
19 - Jose Valdez - RHP - 6'1, 200 - (24) - splits
2013 – Valdez is kind of an interesting pitcher because he didn't start in professional ball until he was 19, and, partially because of a drug suspension, he spent four full seasons in rookie ball, not making it to A-ball until last year at the age of 23. Once he did make it, he kind of overwhelmed hitters, posting a combined 2.74 ERA with 67 strikeouts against 32 hits and 34 walks and 49.1 innings between low-A and high-A.
The Good – Valdez continues a long line of Tigers relief prospects with high-octane arms, pumping his fastball from 93 to 98 with regularity. Though he's a little bit shorter than ideal he gets a good downhill plane on his fastball because he has an almost over-the-top delivery. He also flashes a short slider that has a chance to be an above-average pitch, but most of the time it just sort of cuts a little bit without any downward action.
The Bad - Valdez shares another thing with that long line of Tigers relief prospects with high-octane arms (Brayan Villarreal, Lester Oliveros, Jose Ortega, etc.) - he doesn't seem to have any idea where the ball is going. Scouts think he has a relatively simple delivery, so he shouldn't walk as many people as he does...but he does. As I mentioned, his slider isn't a terribly sharp secondary pitch and may not ever be more than average.
2014 - This year will be a big test Valdez, because he'll finally face more advanced hitters who may lay off his pictures out of the zone. He figures to spend the season in AA, but if he does harnesses his control in he could also pop up to AAA. My guess is that he struggles quite a bit this year, but if he doesn't, we could see him in Detroit in 2015, and possibly even late this year.
Irresponsible Comparison - Pedro Strop
20 - Edgar De La Rosa - RHP - 6'6, 239 - (23) - splits
2013 – De La Rosa has been moving steadily through the system since the Tigers signed him as an 18-year-old out of the Dominican Republic. He spent two years in the Dominican Summer League, moved to the Gulf Coast League, where he led the circuit in IP in 2011, and spent 2012 in short-season A-ball Connecticut. Last year he moved up to low-A West Michigan and struggled quite a bit, finishing 8-6, 5.61 with 140 hits, 41 walks, and just 78 strikeouts in 120.1 IP.
The Good – De La Rosa is a massive human being, and he has the fastball to match his size, pumping in heaters in the low-90s and spiking all the way up to 98 with a sharp downhill plane on the ball. He has also shown signs of a solid changeup that could be at least an average pitch in time, and he also throws a breaking ball. He is sturdy, and has the body to eat innings with ease.
The Bad - De La Rosa is remarkably inconsistent, which isn't terribly uncommon for pitchers of his size. He's capable of throwing eight innings of two-hit ball one game, giving up 8 ER in 1 inning the next, and then coming back to strike out 10 batters in his next outing. The consistency of his mechanics and stuff will likely always be an issue, and his control will probably never be more than fringy. He's probably a reliever in the end.
2014 - Despite his rough results in low-A, I expect the Tigers to continue to develop De La Rosa as a starter in high-A this year, as they should. His giant frame and power arm ooze potential if he can ever find consistent mechanics, and the best way to do that is to throw as many innings as possible. If everything worked out perfectly, he could eventually develop into a #4 starter, but the odds are much, much higher that if he makes the Majors at all it will be as a hard-throwing reliever.
Irresponsible Comparison - Alfredo Simon
Others of Note -
Calvin Drummond - Power arm from the 2013 draft. Strange college career led to him being drafted 5 times. Fastball in the 90-96 range.
Kyle Ryan - Lanky lefty brings his knee up to his face during his delivery. Has three fringy pitches and solid control.
Jordan John - Command and control lefty starter is probably just an org guy.
Wilsen Palacios - Starter with average stuff who is slowly making his way up the ladder.
Joe Rogers - Promising lefty relief arm spent most of last year on the DL.
Jose Ortega - Power arm with a good slider and a decent splitter. No idea where it's going.
Blaine Hardy - Not really a prospect, but made a run at the big-league club as a lefty reliever.
Chad Smith - College reliever now more than two years removed from TJ surgery. Could be a bullpen factor.
Brenny Paulino - Once a very promising arm. Now more myth than man, having missed two full seasons with shoulder injuries.
Position Players (From 6/5/14)Sorry again for the delay with the position prospects. We're already more than a third of the way into the minor-league season, and if I were basing these rankings on what has already transpired, they would look quite different. But I had my list done before the season started, and I'm going to stick with it. Again, I'll post my rankings from last year first. Oh, and I remind you to check out Bless You Boys for more in-depth, and better, prospect info.
Overview I mentioned in the preamble to the pitching list that the Tigers actually have a good amount of legitimate middle-infield prospects, but I also said that most of them appear to be second basemen. Just to save some time later, I’ll point out now that having a second-base profile is really kind of a tough thing for prospects. Some people go so far as to say there aren’t really 2B prospects, but players who failed at other positions. Unlike the other up-the-middle positions, you never see a second baseman stick in the majors on the strength of his defense alone. So the long-and-short of it is, second basemen are expected to hit, and if they don’t hit and hit a lot, they’d better offer power and speed if they want to have any sort of career.
Last-year’s rankings 1 - Nick Castellanos 2 - Avisail Garcia - Majors/traded to White Sox 3 - Tyler Collins 4 - Austin Schotts 5 - Danry Vasquez - Traded to Astros 6 - Eugenio Suarez 7 - Steven Moya 8 - James McCann 9 - Daniel Fields 10 - Curt Casali - Traded to Rays 11 - Harold Castro 12 - Dean Green 13 - Hernan Perez 14 - Ramon Cabrera 15 - Jeff Kobernus - Returned to Nationals 16 - Bryan Holaday 17 - Dixon Machado 18 – James Robbins 19 - Tyler Gibson 20 - Franklin Navarro
1 - Nick Castellanos - 3B/OF - 6'4, 210 - R/R - (22) - splits
2013 – Most people are familiar with Castellanos at this point, but let's take a quick trip through his minor-league career. The Tigers supposedly had him number two on their draft board behind Bryce Harper, and they were overjoyed when he fell all the way to the 44th pick due to bonus demands. He started very slowly in his first full professional season, but rebounded to mash for four months and hit over .300 in low-A. He absolutely demolished high-A pitching to begin 2012, hitting over .400 for two months before getting bumped up to AA and hitting .264 there. Last year in AAA he hit .276 with 17 homers and 37 doubles, despite being one of the youngest players in the league.
The Good – Castellanos is just a gifted hitter, and truly one of the top three or four prospects in all of baseball from a pure hit tool standpoint. He altered his stance a bit over the course of last year, going from a small crouch to more of an upright posture reminiscent of Evan Longoria and Will Myers. He lets the ball travel deep into the zone and keeps his hands inside, which leads to him spraying line drives to center and right-center. He consistently gets the barrel on the ball, and he makes hard contact more often than he doesn't. He has plus raw power, and can take the ball out to any part of the field, though for now he's content to spray doubles to the gaps, particularly in right-center. Defensively he has solid hands and an average arm that works just fine at third.
The Bad - There isn't much for him to work on as a hitter, although he could stand to pull the ball more to tap into his power, and fans may get a little frustrated later in the season when it seems like every other at-bat ends up with a fly ball to right field. He's an aggressive hitter who has gotten much better at not chasing pitches out of the zone, but he will probably lunge at some offspeed stuff to begin the year, and he will still get himself out by hitting borderline pitches instead of waiting for something he can drive. He's a below average runner who gets close to fringy underway, but speed isn't really a part of his game. He may steal a bag or two in the new Tigers offense but I wouldn't expect much. On defense he's a little bit stiff and doesn't have great range to either side, and because he went back-and-forth between the infield and outfield his throws can be a little bit of an adventure. There will be many times this year when he pulls Cabrera off the bag, and at least a few times were he completely airmails first.
2014 – Castellanos is the opening-day third baseman for the Tigers, and I expect some pretty good things from him this year. His bat will almost certainly play, and although you can expect major league pitchers to make some adjustments to him, he has a track record of making solid adjustments himself. There will be some hiccups on defense for sure, but you can pretty much pencil Castellanos for at least a .260 average with 12-15 homers and 30 or more doubles, and he should contend for the rookie of the year award. He should at the very least be a solid everyday third baseman, and in time he may develop into a perennial All-Star.
Irresponsible Comparison - Aramis Ramirez ceiling with a Chris Johnson floor
2 - James McCann - C - 6'2, 210 - R/R - (23) - splits
2013 - The Tigers took McCann in the second round of the loaded 2011 draft, and it was viewed as an extremely conservative pick given the generational nature of the talent in that draft. He played sparingly as a pro that year after a helping lead his Arkansas team to an SEC West title, but in his first full professional season the Tigers sent him directly to high-A Lakeland, where he hit .288/.345/.350 for 45 games. The team then aggressively promoted him to AA, as is their style, and he understandably struggled, hitting just .200 over 64 games. He fared much better in his return to AA Erie last year, finishing the season with a .277/.328/.404 line.
The Good – McCann stands out most for his defense, where he showcases a strong arm, good receiving skills, and all the intangibles you want from a catcher, exhibiting strong leadership and the ability to work well with pitchers. He's athletic and strong enough to stay behind the dish for many years, and he shows some feel for hitting.
The Bad – McCann has some strength, but he'll never hit for more than below-average power because he has a long swing, and he struggles with premium velocity and armside pitching. His hit tool is probably fringe average as well (.240-.250), he doesn't walk very much, and he strikes out a bit too often, though likely not as much as Avila. Like most catchers, he doesn't run well and speed isn't a part of his game.
2014 – McCann is ready for Triple-A Toledo, and there isn't a whole lot he needs to work on before he can become at least a backup in the Majors. As a right-handed hitter he would make a perfect platoon partner for Avila, but he still does have a little bit more projection that could possibly make him an everyday catcher or second-division regular. There's a decent chance he sees the Majors at some point this year, but he'll most likely make his MLB debut in 2015, barring an injury to Holaday or Avila.
Irresponsible Comparison - Chris Stewart
3 - Steven Moya - OF - 6'6, 230 - L/R - (22) - splits
2013 – The Tigers signed Moya back in 2008, shortly after his 17th birthday. He has been tantalizing Tigers officials with his raw tools ever since, but a combination of injuries and ineffectiveness kept him from translating those tools into in-game production for many years. He struggled to hit .200 in the rookie-level Gulf Coast league in 2010, and again in the Midwest league in 2011. He returned to low-A West Michigan in 2012 and made enough improvement in his 59 games there (injured for much of the year) that the Tigers felt comfortable sending him to high-A Lakeland last year, where he hit .255/.296/.433 and produced 36 extra-base hits in 93 games.
The Good – Moya possesses the sort of top-of-the scale raw power that is very hard to come by these days, and he's capable of launching moon shots out of any park at any time. He also shows some solid bat-to-ball skills, and his approach is slowly improving at the plate. He's more athletic than you would expect from such a massive human being, with solid-average speed and long strides that gobble up space on the basepaths and in the outfield. He has an above-average arm that works well in right field.
The Bad – While Moya's approach may be improving incrementally, he still has a long, long way to go before he can turn his raw power into useful game power. Far too often he heads to the plate with a plan that appears to involve nothing but swinging hard, he will frequently get himself out by chasing pitches that aren't strikes, and he very rarely takes walks. It doesn't help that his massive frame gives him a huge strike zone, and most of his power is generated through leverage rather than superior bat speed, so there are plenty of holes in his swing. Advanced left-handed pitchers will likely eat him alive. And while solid in the outfield, he could stand to improve his reads and routes quite a bit.
2014 - Moya will head to AA this year, and it will be a huge, huge test for him, as the jump from high-A to AA is considered the biggest leap in talent in the minors. In general, pitchers who make it to AA either have outstanding raw stuff, an advanced understanding of sequencing ("art of pitching"), or they have advanced command and control. Guys who have all three don’t spend much more time in the minors, but any one of those particular skillsets (and specifically the last two) will likely give Moya fits. He might not see a fastball all year, and he needs desperately to improve his approach and increase his patience to get himself into good hitter’s counts. I've read interviews in which he admits as much, so at least he knows he has to improve. I wouldn't be shocked at all if he spends two full seasons in AA, as he could use about another 1000 at-bats in the minors. If he figures everything out, you're talking about a prototypical right fielder with huge power and a plus arm. However, it's just as likely that he completely flames out in the higher minors and never makes the majors. A more realistic future is as a lefty bench bat who can provide some pop against right-handed pitching. He's currently on the 40-man roster, and the Tigers like him a lot, but it may be a while before we see him in Detroit.
Irresponsible Comparison – Hmm, a giant, left-handed hitting right fielder with big power, more athleticism than you think, little patience, and a below-average hit tool? Hello, Brennan Boesch.
4 - Eugenio Suarez - SS/2B - 5'11, 180 - R/R - (22) - splits
2013 – The Tigers signed Suarez a week after they signed Moya back in 2008, and while it took Suarez a year longer to get to the States, he managed to make it to AA before Moya. Suarez spent two years in the Venezuelan Summer league before splitting time between the rookie-level Gulf Coast League and short-season Connecticut in 2011. He broke out in low-A in 2012, hitting .288/.380/.409 in the tough hitting environment of the Midwest League, finishing among the league leaders in a number of offensive categories. The Tigers bumped him up to high-A Lakeland to begin last year, but after hitting .311 over 25 games they decided to challenge him further with a promotion to AA Erie, where he hit .253/.332/.387 in 111 games.
The Good – There isn't one thing that jumps out about Suarez, but his combination of solid-average tools across the board and a left side profile potentially make him a valuable major leaguer. He shows good instincts at shortstop that let his average range play up a little bit, he has soft hands, and his arm is slightly above average, letting him make all the throws. There's a Peralta-like smoothness to his defensive actions. At the plate he has a grinder mentality, and he generally gives you good at-bats. He'll take his walks, he shows a solid hit tool, and he has surprising pop. He has proven to be durable and dependable over the last two seasons, playing in more than 270 games (out of roughly 285).
The Bad – Suarez is not a physical player, with somewhat narrow shoulders and a frame that isn't terribly muscular. He strikes out far more than someone with his below-average power should, and he gets pull happy, which leads to him turning over on the ball and hitting weak grounders to the left side. He has fringy speed, though he isn't a baseclogger by any means.
2014 - Suarez is behind Hernan Perez on the organizational depth chart, so he'll return to AA for 2014. I expect he'll perform quite well his second go around the league, and at some point he will be summoned up to Toledo. There's nothing glamorous about his game, but he's the sort of solid player who grows on you the more you see him. As a shortstop he has a chance to be a decent regular, and he makes for great trade fodder, but his most likely major-league role will be as utility player. He had a very nice spring training, and he's already on the 40-man roster, so there was some thinking that he may have come up to replace Iglesias. I suspect he will be dealt near the trade deadline this year.
Irresponsible Comparison – Ruben Tejada
5 - Hernan Perez - 2B/SS - 6'1, 185 - R/R - (23) - splits
2013 – Perez was one of the Tigers priority signings out of Venezuela back in the 2007 class that also included Avisail Garcia and Francisco Martinez, who was a key piece of the deal that brought Doug Fister to Detroit. Perez made his way through the system slowly but surely, spending parts of three seasons in low-A, but eventually earning a short cup of coffee in the Majors back in 2012 when Peralta's wife had a baby. Perez topped .300 for the first time in his career last year in Erie and Toledo, chipping in 37 extra-base hits and 24 steals. He also spent time with the big club again, hitting just .197/.217/.227 in limited action.
The Good – Perez, like Suarez, is the type of player who grows on you the more you watch him. Perez actually has the better tools, and he's a much more physical, muscular player than Suarez. He shows good bat-to-ball skills, is capable of lacing line drives to the gaps, and while he's a very aggressive hitter, he shows a solid 2-strike approach. He's an above average runner with good instincts on the basepaths who could perhaps steal 15 bases per year. On defense he has shown the ability to make all the routine plays at shortstop, and he shows above-average range and a good glove at second base.
The Bad – I certainly wouldn't argue with anyone who wants to ranks Perez above Suarez, but there are two reasons I give Suarez the nod. The first reason is Perez's approach, which is so aggressive that he often gets himself out by swinging at borderline pitches that tend to lead to weak contact and easy outs. As I mentioned, he often will fight once he gets two strikes on him, but he will give those first two strikes away rather easily, and he's not fond of taking walks. The main reason I rank Perez behind Suarez, however, is I don't believe he's an everyday shortstop in the major leagues. He shows solid-average range and decently soft hands, but I don't think he has quite the arm strength to make all the necessary throws, particularly from deep short.
2014 - The Tigers are still developing Perez as a shortstop, as they should, and he will play that role in Toledo this year. The organization still likes Perez, but I don't think they would've made two trades at the end of the spring training if they felt he was ready to be an everyday shortstop in the majors. He's got legitimate tools and his defense at second is strong, so if he can manage to iron out his hitting just a little bit to show some more patience and pop, he could be a solid everyday player. However, I think his ultimate role is that of a utility infielder.
Irresponsible Comparison – Young Omar Infante
6- Daniel Fields – OF - 6'2, 215- R/R - (23) - splits
2013 – The son of hitting coach Bruce Fields, Daniel was lured away from a commitment to Michigan when the Tigers offered him a $1.6 million bonus back in 2009. He has had a strange minor league career so far, heading directly to high-A where he surprisingly held his own despite being extremely young for the level. He spent parts of the next two seasons back in Lakeland, and he seemed to regress each year. He did make it to AA in 2012, and he returned to Erie last year, where he seemed to finally put things together, hitting .284 with 10 homers and 24 steals.
The Good – Fields is one of the better athletes in a system that is relatively barren in terms of athleticism, offering speed, power, and defense that could all be close to major league average. He has improved his baserunning the point where he's now a legitimate threat to steal 20 bags, and his defense and routes have gotten good enough that he can capably man center field. He also has solid pop and could hit 12-15 homeruns in a year. He generally shows a patient approach at the plate and will take walks.
The Bad – Put simply, Fields is never going to hit for a high average, and strikeouts will always be an issue because he has a funky swing and struggles to recognize spin. Because of that, he's unlikely to ever tap in to his power, and when you take that into account it's unlikely he will ever be more than a fourth outfielder. Though he was a shortstop as a prep player, his arm strength is fringy at best, and he may profile best in left field.
2014 – When Andy Dirks went down, I thought perhaps Fields had the inside track to becoming the left-field platoon partner with Rajai Davis, but he was actually one of the first outfielders sent to minor-league camp. That's not entirely surprising, because his raw hit tool still needs a lot of refinement. He is on the 40-man roster however, and while I imagine he'll spend most of the season in Toledo, he's only a phone call away from joining the majors. With the potential for solid defense and decent secondary skills, he profiles as a fourth or fifth outfielder.
Irresponsible Comparison – Jordan Danks
7 - Harold Castro – 2B - 6'0, 165- R/R - (20) - splits
2013 – Unlike most of the Venezuelan infielders the Tigers target in free agency, Castro stood out more for his bat than his defense when he was signed as a 17-year-old in 2011. And true to form, he hit .313 in the 2011 Venezuelan Summer League, and followed it up by hitting .311 in the 2012 Gulf Coast League. He took a step back in 2013 though, hitting just .245 in 62 games between low-A and high-A, and seeing his strikeout rate double. He turned things around a bit in the Venezuelan Liga Paralela Fall League, hitting .359/.369/.577 in 22 games.
The Good – Castro is a natural hitter who makes consistent hard contact and drives the ball to the gaps with relative ease, despite his small stature. He also has above-average to plus speed that could let him steal 20+ bases a year if given the opportunity. He has the arm, range, and athletic ability to make all the plays at second.
The Bad – Castro is still relatively raw in all phases of the game. He needs to exhibit more patience at the plate, both to draw walks and to get himself into better hitter’s counts. In the field he tends to rush things, and if he doesn’t learn how to slow the game down for himself he may never be an average defender.
2014 – I considered putting Castro higher on this list because I love his hit tool, but I couldn’t justify it because I heard he was being held back in extended spring training. Whether that’s a disciplinary issue or simply a matter of him getting passed on the organization depth chart, it’s not great news. I assume he'll be back in regular action by mid season, perhaps even getting sent to short-season A ball, though I’d like to see him back in West Michigan or even Lakeland. He still has a chance to be a solid everyday second baseman, but last year and this off-season have presented something of a hiccup in that progress.
Irresponsible Comparison – Daniel Murphy
8 - Devon Travis - 2B - 5'9, 195 - R/R - (23) - splits
2013 – Travis was identified as a potential steal shortly after the Tigers drafted him in 13th round of the 2012 draft out of Florida State, but there still seems to be no industry consensus on just what kind of prospect he is. He played well in 2012, hitting .280/.352/.441 in 25 games at short-season Connecticut. But last year was when he really put his name on the map, going absolutely bonkers to the tune of .351/.418/.518 across low-A and high-A, with 177 hits in 132 games, 16 homers, and 22 steals in 26 tries. Those numbers led to Baseball America ranking Travis as the #2 prospect in the Tigers system, and the #84 overall prospect in all of baseball. Travis also saw action in 18 games in the Arizona Fall League, where he hit just .236 but did slug 2 homers and steal 3 bases.
The Good – Those who like Travis see a guy who showcases a terrific feel for hitting, with a short swing that produces a lot of hard contact, good patience, and unexpectedly solid-average power from such a small guy. He's a good athlete who possesses fringe-average speed, but has very good instincts that should allow him to swipe some bases. He shows decent range, and his arm works well enough to effectively turn the double play and make all the throws expected of a second baseman.
The Bad – Those who aren’t terribly high on Travis see an advanced college hitter who feasted on young, inexperienced pitchers in the low minors, and doesn’t have the profile of an everyday player. I've only seen him bat a handful of times, and one AB ended in a HR, but otherwise I didn’t see a whole lot to get excited about. On a couple of occasions I saw him show solid range in the field, but he had to really sprint to get to the ball, and his hands didn’t seem terribly soft, which led to a few bobbles.
2014 - The Tigers are sending Travis to AA Erie, so that should be a good test for him. He’ll be facing truly advanced pitching for the first time, with solid breaking stuff, so it stands to reason that his average won't be quite so high this year. If he somehow manages to hit .350 again, however, then you can bet he'll move up on more prospect lists, although that’s still no guarantee that he’ll be terribly special in the majors. I'm very skeptical about his chances to continue performing at that level, but if he becomes what his fans hope he is, then you’re looking at an everyday second baseman with 10-12 homers and 10+ steals a year while hitting almost .300. That's damn near an All-Star profile, but as I said, I'm quite skeptical he gets to that. Then he runs into the classic second-base problems. If he can’t stick there, he doesn't have the arm for shortstop or third-base, and he doesn't have the power or secondary skills for an outfield corner.
Irresponsible Comparison – Right-handed Scooter Gennett
9- Tyler Collins - OF - 5'11, 215 - L/LR - (23) - splits
2013 – The Tigers grabbed Collins in the sixth round just two years ago out of Howard Junior College in Texas. He hit the ground running in professional baseball, batting .313 in 42 games in the short-season New York Penn League in 2011. He kept on hitting the next year at Florida State league, putting up a .290/.371/.429 line with seven homers, 35 doubles, and five triples. Things went a little bit sour last year in AA, however, where he hit only .240 and had a very bizarre, and almost certainly anomalous reverse platoon split, hitting just .219 against right handers while hitting .289 against lefties. He did hit 21 homers and 29 doubles, however, and pushing for power may have been part of the reason his average went down. Like Travis, Collins spent some time in the Arizona Fall League, hitting .260/.382/.356 in 20 games.
The Good – Until last year Collins had shown a very good feel for hitting, solid patience and good gap power. He still projects to get the bat on the ball well, and he can occasionally take the ball over the fence with his average power, particularly to the pull side. He's a fringy runner who is more athletic than he appears, and while he won't steal a lot of bases, he's a decent baserunner who can swipe a bag or two. He's a solid-average defensive outfielder.
The Bad – Collins really has to sell out to put up the sort of power numbers he did last year, and it showed in a much lower average, fewer walks, and many more strikeouts. He has more range than his body would indicate, but not enough to capably man center, and while his arm is okay in right, it plays much better in left field.
2014 - I can criticize Collins going for power all I want, but it really seemed to help him make the big leagues this year -- that and Andy Dirks getting hurt of course. I don't expect him to play a ton, but it wouldn't shock me if he hits really well when he does play. He has a completely different set of skills than Brennan Boesch, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if he has sort of a Boesch-like hot streak to begin his career, only to then complete fall off the cliff when he can't make adjustments after the pitchers figure him out. He'll head back to AAA when Dirks comes back, but he still a solid prospect who can help the Tigers. I'd call him a 4th outfielder, but he could be your starting RF in 2015.
Irresponsible Comparison - Jason Kubel, with fewer homers
10 - Austin Schotts - OF - 5'11, 180 - R/R - (20) - splits
2013 – The Tigers didn’t have a first round pick in 2012 (because they signed Prince Fielder), so they didn’t pick until 91 overall, when they took Jake Thompson. And while that looks like a very solid pick, for a short time their second pick from that draft (#121 overall) looked like he would be the real steal of their draft. Schotts came out of the gate on fire, hitting .310 with 15 XBH and 16 steals in 20 tries in 40 GCL games, and a 2-game stint in high-A Lakeland. He appeared ready for full-season A-ball, but he struggled mightily in low-A West Michigan last year, hitting just .192/.248/.249 with 75 Ks and 14 BBs in 59 games. He was sent down to short-season A-ball when that league started, but he didn’t fare much better there, finishing with a .229/.305/.303 line with 71 Ks and 20 BBs in 62 games.
The Good – Schotts is an athletic kid with near plus-plus speed who uses his wheels well on the basepaths and in outfield. He shows the potential for a solid hit tool, and he has enough pop to keep pitchers honest by reaching the gaps with regularity and even occasionally putting one over the fence. He's a converted infielder, but he projects to be an at least above-average defensive outfielder, and his arm is adequate for center field.
The Bad – It became apparent last season that Schott’s approach and hit tool were not nearly as advanced as once thought after his impressive debut. He struggles to recognize spin, and there was far too much swing-and-miss in his game last year, which may be a reflection of him attempting to hit for more power than useful for his own body type. He is somewhat slight, so swinging for the fences will never be a great idea. His arm is nothing special, but it should be adequate enough to handle center or left.
2014 - Schotts will return to West Michigan this year, where he and the organization will certainly hope for better offensive results. If he can get a handle on making more contact and striking out less often, he still has the tools to profile as a solid leadoff hitter, or the very least the bottom-of-the-order speedster and defensive specialist. The rawness in his game has slowed down his timetable quite a bit, but if he can manage to get back on track, he still has a chance to see the majors at some point in 2017.
Irresponsible Comparison – Rajai Davis
11 - Javier Betancourt - 2B/SS - 6', 180 - R/R - (19) - splits
2013 – The Tigers signed Betancourt out of Venezuela three years ago because they really liked his advanced approach and solid tools. He rewarded their faith by performing quite well in the Venezuelan Summer League as a 17-year-old, so they brought him stateside last year and put him in the Gulf Coast League. Once again his advanced approach took over and he played quite well, hitting .333 with 13 extra base hits and just 14 strikeouts with 12 walks in 50 games, making the GCL post-season all-star team. He also played in the Liga Paralela, hitting .344/.380/.453 in 19 games. Any recap of Betancourt requires that I mention he is the nephew of former MLB player Edgardo Alfonzo, which helps explain his precocious understanding of the game.
The Good – Betancourt takes a patient, measured approach at the plate, getting himself in a good counts, and putting the barrel on the ball consistently. He’s not a power hitter, but he’s also not completely punchless. Everything about his game is tied more to instincts and polish than to athleticism, but he shows an average arm and figures to make all the routine plays on defense.
The Bad – Power will never be a big part of Betancourt’s game, so he will have to maximize his hit tool and patience to be an effective offensive player. He’s a fringy runner who doesn’t figure to steal many bases, and while he can handle shortstop defensively, his lack of plus range and athleticism likely means that he’s a second baseman, which once again puts a premium on his bat.
2014 – Betancourt is ready for a trip to low-A West Michigan in 2011, where he figures to be one of the youngest regulars in the league. He’s the sort of player who is unlikely to ever put up eye-popping numbers at any level, but will steadily move up the ladder and eventually end up in the big leagues one day. If all goes well he could be a regular at second, but he’s more likely a utility infielder.
Irresponsible Comparison – Darwin Barney
12 - Steven Fuentes - 3B - 5'11, 180 - B/R - (19) - splits
2013 – Fuentes was signed in the same 2011 international free agent class as Javier Betancourt, and in many way Fuentes is the raw, athletic ying to Betancourt’s polished-but-unspectacular yang. Fuentes showcased some of his tools in his first professional season, hitting .257 with 14 XBHs and 8 steals in 59 games in the 2012 Venezuelan Summer League. He split time between shortstop, third, and second that year, but when the Tigers sent him to the GCL last year he exclusively played third. He continued to flash his tools in his stateside debut, finishing the year with a .272/.353/.404 line and 14 more extra base hits to go along with 5 steals. Fuentes spent 16 games in the Liga Paralela, hitting just .214 with 3 doubles, 20 strikeouts against 4 walks, and 5 errors.
The Good – Fuentes has good athleticism and pretty solid tools across the board. He has plus bat speed and has shown some feel for making solid contact, and he has developing power that could one day be average. He’s an average runner, though a bit faster underway, and he has plenty of arm strength to profile on the left side of the infield.
The Bad – Fuentes’ negatives mostly tend to stem from him still learning the nuances of the game, and from letting the game speed up on him. He needs to showcase better plate discipline to get himself into better hitter’s counts and take more walks, and it stand to reason that his speed may drop a bit as his body matures. He’s still raw on defense, and if his power doesn’t develop he may not have a defensive home.
2014 – Because he’s still quite raw, I don’t expect to see Fuentes playing until at least the middle of the season. He may be ready for the challenge of short-season A-ball, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the org keeps him in the GCL for another season, before promoting him to West Michigan in 2015. In many ways he reminds me of Francisco Martinez. If he can continue to refine his tools while also gaining a better feel for the game, he could potentially be an average third baseman in the distant future.
Irresponsible Comparison – Ramiro Pena
13 - Ben Verlander - OF - 6'4, 200 - R/R - (22) – splits
2013 – Every organization in baseball makes nepotism pics during the draft, and that was definitely the case when the Tigers took Ben Verlander in the 46th round back in 2010. The club probably wouldn't have been paying attention to him had he not been the brother of their franchise pitcher, but Verlander’s 2013 season at Old Dominion helped make him a legitimate prospect. After two years of underwhelming pitching, he became a full-time offensive player as a Junior, and he led his team in hitting (.367), HR (11), slugging (.638), OBP (.429), and stolen bases (13). The Tigers drafted him again, this time in the 14th round, and sent him to short-season Connecticut, where he batted .219/.273/.338 with 18 XBHs and 6 steals in 67 games.
The Good – Much like his brother did when he came out of college, Ben has a lean, athletic build that suggests further positive development. His raw power is at least average, and could potentially be plus down the line if/when he develops his hit tool properly. He has decent speed, is athletic enough to handle an outfield corner, his arm strength is more than adequate, and he projects to be an average defender with more reps.
The Bad – Like his brother, Ben is a little bit awkward at the plate. His swing seems kind of rushed, with the bat head taking something of a flat plane through the zone. He's rawer than you would expect from a three-year college player, having spent only one season as a full-time hitter, so he may need to spend a lot of time in the minors. He struggles quite a bit against arm-side pitching.
2014 – Verlander will join Schotts in the outfield at West Michigan, and it will be interesting to follow his development there. His future mostly depends on him developing his burgeoning power, and sharpening his hit tool enough to take advantage of that. Barring an unexpected offensive explosion, he figures to spend a whole year in West Michigan getting acclimated to pro ball. It takes a lot of dreaming, but if he figures everything out, he’s a .240-.260 hitter with 15-20 HR, some steals, and adequate defense.
Irresponsible Comparison – A poor-man’s Hunter Pence
14 - Domingo Leyba - 2B - 5'11, 160 - B/R - (18) – splits
2013 – Leyba was one of the Tigers two big international signings out of the Dominican Republic last year, and he has a somewhat interesting story. He actually participated in the Reviving Baseball in Inner Cities (RBI) program in the United States in Minnesota when he was younger, before moving back to the Dominican Republic. As a result he's much more advanced than you might think a 17-year-old would be, and it showed in his professional debut, where he absolutely torched the ball in the Dominican Summer League, leading the circuit in Average (.348), Slugging (.577), and OPS (1.023) while chipping in 16 steals, and walking 34 times against 26 strikeouts in 57 games.
The Good – Leyba shows an advanced understanding the game in all facets, getting himself in good hitting counts, fouling off pitches he can't drive, and taking walks when he needs to. He has surprising pop, but he figures to be more of a doubles hitter in his prime. He has average speed, and can handle shortstop right now thanks to solid range and an average arm.
The Bad – Leyba stands out much more for his skills than his raw tools, and he's a smaller guy so he doesn't figure to have much future projection, particularly in the power department. He can play shortstop, but it's most likely that in the long run he will end up as a second baseman, and as always that means his bat must continue to progress at each level.
2014 – Like Javier Betancourt before him, Leyba’s advanced feel for hitting and understanding of the game led the Tigers to move him to the states after just one season in a Latin Summer league. They'll hold him back in extended spring-training, and then most likely send him to the Gulf Coast League, where I expect him to perform pretty well. He’ll go as far as his tools allows him, and right now he looks like one of the more promising young players in the organization.
Irresponsible Comparison – Clint Barmes
15 - Willy Adames - SS - 6'1, 180 - R/R - (18) – splits
2013 – Leyba and Adames form a ying and yang relationship in much the same way as Betancourt and Fuentes, with Adames bringing more tools but less polish that Leyba. Adames’ $420,000 signing bonus in 2012 was actually 20 grand more than Leyba’s, so the organization obviously likes the kid. He wasn’t quite as spectacular as Leyba on the field, but Adames’ pro debut was nothing to sneeze at, as he hit .245 with 18 XBHs and 9 steals (in 21 tries) and walked 56 times against 44 strikeouts in 60 DSL games, all as a 17-year old.
The Good – Adames has a lean, athletic body with room to add muscle and strength, and despite a middling average, he demonstrated an impressively patient approach at the plate, as evidenced by his lofty walk total. He has average speed and has plenty of arm strength to handle the left side of the infield. In fact, Leyba often played second base in deference to Adames, who has better range and more natural actions at shortstop.
The Bad – Adames is rawer than Leyba, particularly with the hit tool, and he could possibly stand to be a little more aggressive at the plate. Though he has average speed, he’s not a terribly good baserunner yet, and he’ll probably lose a step or two as he begins to fill out. Gaining size will help his power, but it could also eventually move him off shortstop and over to third, which once again puts added pressure on the bat.
2014 – The Tigers were impressed with Adames’ performance in the Dominican Summer League, so like Leyba they brought him stateside for 2014. He’ll certainly begin in extended spring training and probably then on to the Gulf Coast League. He's got an awful lot of potential if everything clicks, but it's always a little bit rough to project guys when they are this young and their hit tool needs a lot of development.
Irresponsible Comparison – Jonathan Schoop
16 - Connor Harrell - OF - 6'3, 215 - R/R - (23) – splits
2013 – Vanderbilt is one of the Tigers favorite talent pools, and they went fishing there multiple times over the last few years, including when they grabbed Harrell in the 7th round last year. He was the first position player they took, and he was a rare college senior sign who still had some tools projection remaining. Harrell hit .312 for Vandy as a senior, leading the team with 12 homers and chipping in 9 steals. The Tigers sent him directly to low-A West Michigan, where he hit .237 with 21 XBHs and 4 steals, and took 19 walks against 71 strikeouts in 65 games.
The Good – As I mentioned above, Harrell is gifted with some pretty loud tools, which is rare for college seniors. His is a big, muscular kid with a big-league body. He has above-average raw power, to go along with above-average speed, and he uses that speed well in the outfield, where he has the range and arm to play all three positions.
The Bad – Harrell has always struggled to make consistent contact at the plate, and he will likely never hit for much average. He’s aggressive, he struggles to pick up spin, and there’s a hitch in his swing that leads to some issues with premium velocity. He doesn't use his good speed terribly well on the basepaths, and while his overall tools package is nice, without hitting ability it doesn’t mean much.
2014 – Harrell was older than most when he signed, and after being sent directly to low-A, it stands to reason that he’ll head to high-A Lakeland to begin this year. He’ll likely struggle with strikeouts again, but I would expect him to make some minor improvements with his batting average with another year of pro instruction. He should be able to make it to AA in 2015, and AAA the following year. If his hit tool doesn’t develop any more, he’s likely just an organizational soldier, but if he can get to the point where he would hit .230-.240 in the Majors, then he’s got a really nice chance to be a solid 4th OF.
Irresponsible Comparison – Less dynamic Drew Stubbs
17 - Bryan Holaday - C - 6', 205 - R/R - (26) – splits
2013 – Taken in the 6th round of the same 2010 draft that produced Nick Castellanos, Drew Smyly, and the since traded Rob Brantly and Chance Ruffin, Holaday has steadily made progress through the system, despite never putting up impressive numbers. He hit .220 in high-A, .242 in AA, .240 in AAA in 2012, and .260 in AAA last year. He also made cameos in the Majors in 2012 and 2013, posting an .811 OPS and bashing his first MLB homer in a 16-game run for the Tigers last season.
The Good – Holaday has always stood out more for his defense than his offense, and even when he was drafted he was considered a future backup catcher. He’s a dependable receiver with soft hands and an average arm, and on offense he shows a propensity for contact.
The Bad – Holaday’s swing is long and slow, and he attempts to pull the ball a bit too much. He has below-average power, and below-average speed, though he isn’t a 20 runner like many catchers. He could stand to do some more work with regard to game calling and pitch sequencing, and his throwing accuracy wavers at times.
2014 – There’s not a whole lot left for Holaday to prove in the minors, as it’s unlikely that he’ll ever get much better than he currently is. He can still make some strides toward becoming a better defender, but the Tigers don’t have another backup catcher on the roster, so it looks like it’s his job to lose this year. He isn’t quite good enough to run a strict platoon with Avila, but expect him to see about 40 games of action and hit around .230 with maybe a HR or two.
Irresponsible Comparison – Pick a backup catcher
18 - Tyler Gibson – OF - 6'2, 210 - R/R - (21) – splits
2013 – Gibson was the Tigers only real big investment in the monster 2011 draft, with the team taking him in the 15th round and offering him $500K to sign him away from Georgia Tech. He only got in 4 games that year, so his first real action was in 2012, when he struggled to a .167/.295/.253 line in 52 games, with 30 walks and 68 Ks, and 18 steals in 25 tries. He didn’t exactly improve as he moved up to short-season Connecticut last year, hitting just .203/.313/.290 with 22 walks and 64 strikeouts in 45 games, with 9 steals in 12 tries.
The Good – Gibson is among the best athletes in a system that is sorely lacking in athleticism, and he offers both above-average speed and above-average raw power. He converted to OF from shortstop when he turned pro, and he can handle all three OF positions, though he would be better suited for a corner. He does show a patient approach at the plate, and will take his walks.
The Bad – Gibson is obviously very raw, despite his impressive tools. He is unlikely to ever be an above-average hitter, he isn’t a terribly advanced baserunner, and he appears to have filled out a bit already and slowed down. He has good raw power but has yet to actualize it in games, and he’s also still raw in the outfield.
2014 – It’s early in his career, but kind of a make or break year for Gibson now. He will likely be sent to West Michigan and he’s going to need to show improvement across the board to remain a priority in the system. He was extremely raw coming out of high school, but he has the tools you want to see, and he’ll begin the season as a 20-year-old, so there’s still a chance for him. I consider it a bit of a longshot, however, but if something does click, he could potentially be an everyday player. It’s more likely that his ceiling is as an extra outfielder, and I’d guess that he ultimately ends his playing days as a career minor leaguer.
Irresponsible Comparison – Ryan Kalish
19 - Franklin Navarro - C - 5'10, 180 - B/R - (19) - splits
2013 – The Tigers signed Navarro out of Venezuela in 2011, but he didn’t get into game action until 2012, where he was impressive in the VSL, hitting .315/.360/.452 and finishing among the league leaders in hits, total bases, average, OBP, SLG, and leading the league with 19 doubles. The Tigers brought him to the U.S. last year, and he hit .258/.327/.371 in 33 games, with 6 walks and 25 Ks in 33 games. He also saw a little action in the Liga Paralela, hitting .326 in 13 games.
The Good – Navarro shows the natural ability to be a solid-average hitter in his prime, and he has enough pop to keep pitchers honest. Once he fills out a bit more he’ll have an ideal catcher’s body, and he has good arm strength, and the tools to be an above-average defender in the future.
The Bad – Navarro is still pretty raw in most aspects of his game, and being a switch hitter adds a little more difficulty to the always tough task of developing as two-way catcher. He’s a better left-handed hitter at this point, and he has a tendency to be a bit aggressive from both sides, which doesn’t lead to many walks. He’ll probably never have more than average power, he still needs to clean up his defense, and like most catchers, running isn’t a part of his game.
2014 – I suspect the Tigers are pleased with Navarro’s progress, but I think he’ll probably head back to the GCL for another year. There’s a chance they send him to short-season Connecticut, but he won’t be 20 until October, and I don’t think there’s any need to rush him. If everything comes together he could be a solid everyday catcher, but he’s just so far away that I don’t feel comfortable ranking him higher. I can picture him shooting up my list for next year, however, if he has a good 2014.
Irresponsible Comparison – Dioner Navarro
20 - Dixon Machado - SS - 6'1, 170 - R/R - (23) - splits
2013 – Machado has been around since 2009, and even though he hadn’t made it out of A-ball yet, the Tigers added him to the 40-man roster following the 2012 season. But, unfortunately for him, Machado’s 2013 was basically a lost season full of injuries. He saw just 44 games of action, with 7 in the GCL on a rehab assignment, and then 37 in high-A Lakeland, where he hit an anemic .215/.264/.295. He also saw some time in the Arizona Fall League, where he struggled to hit .158 and didn’t register an XBH. The Tigers had no problem removing him from the 40-man to make room for Joe Nathan.
The Good – Machado’s calling card always has been, and always will be his defense, which earns plus or even plus-plus grades from scouts thanks to terrific range, good hands, quality footwork, and a 70-grade arm. He’s been an above-average to plus runner in the past, though he only attempted one steal all of last year. He shows good patience at the plate, and can make contract fairly well.
The Bad – Machado has true 20-grade power, with limited physicality and a fairly slight frame that won’t let him add much more muscle. The complete lack of pop also affects his hit grade, because pitchers aren’t afraid of him at all, and even pitches right down the heart might not make it out of the infield. He still needs to work on the finer points at shortstop, such as pre-judging runners.
2014 – It’s tough to say where Machado will play this year. He spent a whole, and wholly ineffective season in high-A in 2012, and he returned there for a bit last year, but again, he was hurt for most of the season. He’s certainly not the priority SS in the system anymore, behind Suarez and even Perez (even though he’s not a SS), so it stands to reason that Machado will head back to high-A yet again. I can see him getting up to AA this year, however, with any movement in the prospect ranks. He still has a small chance to see the Majors as a utility IF, but my guess is that he’s now just an organizational soldier.
Irresponsible Comparison - Wilson Valdez
Other Names of Note
C - Ramon Cabrera - (24) - Good hitter, but zero pop and a noodle arm. On the 40-man, but I doubt he sees the Majors with Detroit.
1B - Aaron Westlake - (25) - Ugh, 3rd rounder from 2011. Has power, but bat is slow and doesn't draw walks like he did in college.
1B/DH - Dean Green - (25) - Solid hitter with decent pop, but very poor defender.
3B/2B - Dominic Ficociello - (23) - Versatile college hitter with solid tools. Was the Tigers backup plan back in 2010 if they couldn't sign Castellanos.
OF - Rashad Brown - (20) - Speedy lefty hitter with solid contact skills but very little punch.
OF - Miguel Paulino - (20) - Always and forever the right-handed version of Brown, but maybe with less speed and more pop.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 8, 2014 14:52:23 GMT -5
The last prospect update I ever did at the Inferno (8/28/14). This will probably evolve into my list for next year. So yeah, since the rosters are about to expand, the minor league season is almost over, and who knows if this board will be around next April, I'll just go ahead and do a quick preview of what my rankings would probably look like next season. Age on April 1 of next year in ()
1 - Derek Hill - OF - (19) - First round pick this year, Hill projects to be an elite defensive CF with plus-plus speed that plays on the bases and in the field. He's a bit raw as a hitter, but projects to be at least average, and he should have average power in his prime.
2 - Jonathon Crawford - RHP - (23) - Numbers in low-A aren't great, and ideally he would have been a level or two higher, but he still has a very good slider, and a legit fastball that sits in the low-90s with heavy movement, and can peak at 96-97 when he needs to. Issues with command and his changeup may send him to the bullpen, but he could possibly be a closer.
3 - Robbie Ray - LHP - (23) - With every MLB start he looks worse and worse, but he's still young and he still has talent. I'm not a huge fan...but this isn't a great system. On the 40-man, I expect him to be up in September.
4 - James McCann - C - (24) - Always considered a plus defender, he showed some real offensive promise this year, flirting for .300 and hitting more than 30 doubles. An ideal platoon partner for Avila. He's not currently on the 40-man roster, but I give him about a 33% chance of coming up in September.
5 - Steven Moya - OF - (23) - A truly fascinating prospect because he such a giant (6'7, 235) with so much power (34 HR, 32 2B this season) and he's a solid athlete and defender, but he's got an 8-to-1 K/BB rate, and scouts are very skeptical he'll hit enough in the Majors. On the 40-man roster, and I give him about a 25% chance of coming up in September. He's also scheduled to play in the Arizona Fall League.
6 - Buck Farmer - RHP - (24) - It's easy to look at his last MLB start (7 ER) and his only AAA start (7 ER) and say Farmer isn't good, but he has actually been one of the more pleasant surprises for the system this year. He was signed as a senior, which usually means he'd be an org guy, but his fastball took a step forward, and both his change and his curve flash as above-average pitches. His command needs to take two steps forward, but he's got a chance to be a decent #4 starter. I bet we'll see him in some capacity in September.
7 - Devon Travis - 2B - (24) - I'm still somewhat skeptical about Travis, but he continues to hit well (.296/.357/.457), show surprising pop for his size, and even steal bases at a decent rate despite being an average runner at best. He's also a pretty solid defender. I don't think he's a regular for an MLB contender, but he should make the Majors. Headed to the AFL.
8 - Hernan Perez - 2B/UTIL - (24) - Solid player with a decent bat and good speed. I don't see him as a regular at the MLB level, but he should have a decent career as a utility infielder. I give him an 80% chance of coming up in September.
9 - Drew VerHagen - RHP - (24) - We saw him for one MLB start, but then he injured his back. Has a pretty good fastball, but the secondary stuff is average. He throws strikes though, and could fit into the back end of the rotation. I like him more as a reliever. As I mentioned, he's hurt, but he's on the AFL roster.
10 - Dixon Machado - SS - (23) - One of the most pleasant surprises this year is that Dixon Machado has begun to hit. He always had a lot of things going for him -- namely his near elite glove and a 70-grade arm, but also very good plate discipline -- but he could never impact the ball. But this year in AA he has hit .297/.381/.440 with 22 doubles and 5 homers, all while still playing excellent defense at shortstop. He's not Iglesias with the glove, but he's damn good, and he'll see the Majors. I give him a 20% chance of it happening this year.
11 - Harold Castro - 2B - (21) - Might have the best pure hit tool of anyone in the Tigers minor-league system, and he's still my bet for having the best chance among their many 2B prospects to be an MLB regular, but he's having a very odd year. He's hitting .316 in high-A, but he's only playing like once every 3 days, and he's not showing any power or the ability to steal bases, despite being a good runner. I don't know...he could be in the top-5 next year, or not on the list at all.
12 - Spencer Turnbull - RHP - (22) - Picked in the 2nd round this year, Turnbull is a classic Tigers pitcher - big, strong, with a fastball in the mid-90s and questionable secondary stuff and command. Has a chance to be a #4 starter, could be a late-inning reliever, or he could do both like fellow Crimson Tide alum Tommy Hunter.
13 - Kevin Ziomek - LHP - (23) - The Tigers 2nd round pick in 2013, Ziomek has dominated in low-A all year with his high-80s fastball, sweepy curve, and advanced changeup. I'm skeptical he'll continue to find that success at higher levels, but I think he could be a 5th starter.
14 - Artie Lewicki - RHP - (22) - Lewicki missed 2013 with TJ surgery, but the Tigers took him in the 8th round this year out of Virginia, and he has the stuff of a guy who should have been taken higher. He throws a low-90s fastball that can get to 95, he has a solid slider that flashes plus, and he has a durable frame that allows him to maintain his stuff deep into games. Chance to be a #4 starter.
15 - Adam Ravenelle - RHP - (22) - Interesting pick by the Tigers in the 4th round this year, because Ravenelle had arm trouble at Vandy and rarely pitched in his first two years before serving as a reliever for Vandy. But the Tigers took him as a starter, and he may be able to hang there, because he has three decent pitches. Has to stay healthy and get innings though.
16 -Grayson Greiner - C -(22) - At 6'6, I believe Greiner would be the tallest catcher in MLB history. But the Tigers took him in the 3rd round this year because they think he has a chance to make it, largely thanks to his very strong defense. He can swing the stick a bit, and has some raw pop, but he's most likely a platoon player.
17 - Tyler Collins - OF - (24) - We saw him a bit this year, but he proved he wasn't ready for the Majors. He's still a 4th OF at best, offering some lefty pop and the ability to play all three OF positions (even though he's not good in CF or ideal in RF). On the 40-man, so I give him a 75% chance of coming up in September.
18 - Daniel Fields - OF - (24) - Fields is more well-rounded than Collins, and a better defender, but he has serious contact issues. Could be a solid defensive replacement in September. On the 40-man, so I give him a 50% chance of coming up.
19 - Domingo Leyba - 2B - (19) - Leyba was dominant in the Domincan Summer League last year, but scouting reports have him doing it more with a grinder mentality and good instincts than tools. He didn't start playing until mid year, and skipped over rookie ball to short-season Connecticut. Then he jumped to low-A, and he has been hitting the cover off the ball for more than a month. His success is very nice, but as I said, the tools don't project to be much more than average.
20 - Javier Betancourt - 2B - (20) - Almost the exact same player a Leyba. Betancourt is a solid hitter with an advanced understanding of the game, and a little bit of positional flexibility, though his only shot at being a regular is at 2B.
21 - Edgar De La Rosa - RHP - (24) - Really big guy with a really big fastball, and some really big command issues. Still being developed as a starter, but I think he may help in the bullpen eventually.
22 - Anthony Castro - RHP - (19) - Castro is a young kid pitching in the GCL, but he has shown flashes of really nice stuff that gives him the potential to be a mid-rotation starter. It's a long way away, though, so he stays down the list.
23 - Connor Harrell - OF - (24) - Like Collins and Fields, Harrell figures to be a 4th OF at best, but I suspect he'll put up numbers in AA next year that make people start talking about him as a potential answer in CF. He is not, because he won't be able to hit much. But, he is an above-average fielder, with above-average speed, and above-average raw power. He could be very useful.
24 - Angel Nesbitt - RHP - (24) - Stocky, powerful reliever has a mid-90s fastball that moves a bit, and a decent slider that flashes as an above-average pitch. Probably not gonna be more than a 7th inning guy, but not too far away.
25 - Steven Fuentes - 3B - (20) - If I had to pick one kid on this list who might rocket into the top 5 in the next two years, it would be Fuentes. He's a well-built with good tools, and he's starting to put them to use on the field. A switch-hitter too, which is nice. Wouldn't be shocked if he moves to an OF corner eventually.
26 - Zac Reininger - RHP - (23) - Working exclusively as a reliever, Reininger has been pretty dominant thus far, using a fastball that can creep up to 93-94, and two very solid breaking balls. Should see some time in AA next year.
27 - Melvin Mercedes - RHP - (24) - We've seen the chunky Mercedes once, and he actually pitched fairly well. He throws almost side-armed, which gives his mid-90s fastball a lot of run, but makes his slider pretty spinny. He did flash a decent changeup in his MLB debut, which was unexpected. Chance to help in the bullpen, but must learn to miss more bats. I expect to see him in September.
28 - Chad Smith - RHP - (25) - Basically a skinnier version of Mercedes. Smith has a mid-90s heater with a lot of run into righties and a decent slider, but lefties kind of eat him alive. Another guy who may help in the bullpen, and another guy I expect to see in September.
29 - Jose Valdez - RHP - (25) - Oh hey, a hard throwing reliever with a fastball in the mid-90s and a short slider that isn't terribly effective. Get in line. On the 40-man, but I give him a 10% chance of coming up in September.
30 - Kyle Lobstein - LHP - (25) - Acquired from the Rays, Lobstein throws a high-80s fastball, a cutter, a decent curve, and a solid changeup. He's thrown a lot of innings in the high minors, so he has an idea of what he's doing, but he figures to be an emergency starter or long reliever at best. On the 40-man, I expect he'll be up in September.
31 - Joe Jimenez - RHP - (20) - The Tigers signed Jimenez out of Puerto Rico last year, and this year they turned him into a reliever, where he can run his fastball up to 96-97. He also has a promising slider. He could move up the list quite a bit in the next few years, but I think his ceiling is as a setup man.
32 - Joey Pankake -3B/UTIL - (22) - The Tigers took Pankake in the 7th round this year, and he has a solid chance to see the Majors, most likely as a utility man. He can hit, and he projects to have fringe-average power. He played shortstop his first two years in college, and moved to 3rd last year. That's where he's playing now, but he could also probably fill in at 2nd or either OF corner, because he has a very strong arm.
33 - Tyler Gibson - OF - (21) - Toolsy but raw, Gibson has been floating around the low minors for 4 years now, but he finally started showing some signs of life this year. Still a longshot, but if he can put things together, he has the requisite tools to be an everyday player.
34 - Kyle Ryan - LHP - (22) - Not unlike Lobstein, Ryan is a lefty with high-80s velocity who figures to top out as a long-reliever/emergency starter. He also throws a sweepy breaking ball, a cutter, and a changeup, and while he doesn't miss many bats, he has a high leg kick that adds some deception. He's being added to the 40-man, so we may see him in September.
35 - Zach Shepherd - 3B - (19) - Shepherd is an Aussie, and he has shown some real promise in his short pro career, particularly on offense. He shows solid tools across the board, though, and could grow into a prototypical third baseman.
36 - Shane Zeile - C - (21) - The Tigers took Zeile in the 5th round this year, betting on his solid athleticism and bloodlines. His uncle Todd played for a long time, and Shane shows some promise behind the plate defensively, though he's relatively new to the position. He also has the chance to be a solid hitter, but it will probably take a few years for him to develop.
37 - Montreal Robertson - RHP - (24) - Robertson is having his best year, but the statistics still don't match the scouting reports. He flashes a mid-90s fastball, and a decent slider. He has some relief potential, but he's gonna need to start moving soon.
38 - Josh Laxer - RHP - (21) - A college reliever the Tigers took in the 9th round this year, Laxer's fastball has reached 96 in the past and he also throws a solid breaking ball. Command is a concern, but it hasn't been an issue so far in professional ball.
39 - Franklin Navarro - C - (20) - Navarro is showing slow, steady progress as a potential 2-way catcher, but it will be several more years before we really know anything. Being a switch hitter adds more more thing for him to work on.
40 - Julio Martinez - OF/1B - (17) - A complete wild card at this point, the Tigers just spent $600K to sign Martinez out of the D.R. He projects to be an above-average hitter with a chance for plus power. He may one day be a top-10 prospect in the org, but he's obviously years away from that.
Injury Types
Endrys Briceno - RHP - (23) - Blew out his elbow this year. Probably would have been in my top 10.
Jeff Thompson - RHP - (23) - Out since May with an undisclosed injury. Probably would have been in my top 20.
Will Clinard - RHP - (25) - Reliever I thought could help this year, out all season with an undisclosed injury. Probably would have been in my top 20.
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Post by fastfreddie on Dec 8, 2014 14:57:34 GMT -5
Awesome work, CB!
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Post by ChrisBrown on Dec 8, 2014 15:06:11 GMT -5
And what the hell, this doesn't really belong in here, but it was the first really in-depth post I ever made at SI. The Dombrowski Files. (8/2/2008) I promised fellow-Michigan-fan-and-otherwise-complete-stranger TMoney that I would start a thread about Dave Dombrowski, and dammit, if you can't keep your promises to complete strangers, then what good are you?
Here's the deal: Everyone is upset about the extremely disappointing year the Tigers are having, and some people would like to see Dombrowski fired as a result. I am ardently opposed to that, and I intend to use this thread to show that Dombrowski has made far more good moves as the Tigers General Manager than bad moves. At the very least, I want to show that the good moves have helped the franchise much more than the bad moves have hurt it.
That said, I'm a quantitative guy, and thus I will try to be as thorough and "scientific" as possible when looking at all the (on the field) moves for which DD is responsible. My opinion will of course taint my views, but at least we can commit all of his actions to print, as it were, and have a nice hearty discussion. So, let us begin before the 2002 season, when Dombrowski was named the president/CEO of the Tigers. Randy Smith was still technically the GM...but an 0-6 start got him and Phil Garner fired.
2002
If you click on that link you'll see the roster Dombrowski was given. Nothing else needs to be said.
Transactions
You can see the full list of transactions by clicking on the above link, though I would only count the ones after April when he officially took over GM duties. The transactions run until the start of the following season, and the vast majority of them are forgettable, but there are a few exceptions:
July 5 - Traded Jeff Weaver to the Yankees, and cash to the Athletics for Carlos Pena, Franklyn German, and a player to be named. On August 22, Oakland sent Jeremy Bonderman to complete the deal. -- Yes, the 46 Homers Pena hit last season were for a different team, and German is no longer in the Majors, but neither is Weaver. Meanwhile, despite the ragging he gets, Bonderman is a quality pitcher who, when he's right, can be dominant. In terms of overall value, this trade is an absolute A
Sept. 7 - Released Jose Lima. -- Lima was awful that year, but he did go on to win 13 games a few years later. Still, I don't think this move hurt much. Grade: B
Nov. 27 - Signed Guillermo Moscoso as a non-drafted free agent. -- Signed at 19, Moscoso has taken his time, but he could be a key arm going forward. Grade: C
Dec. 16 - Drafted Wilfredo Ledezma from the Boston Red Sox. (rule 5) -- Ledezma never really panned out, but he was a serviceable reliever in 2006, and the Tigers traded him for Macay McBride the following year. Grade: C
Jan. 11, 2003 - Traded Mark Redman and Jerrod Fuell (minors) to the Florida Marlins. Received Gary Knotts, Nate Robertson, and Rob Henkel (minors). -- Redman is 45-55 since this trade, with a 5.00 ERA, though he did pitch well for Florida in 2003 and he was Kansas City's lone All-Star in 2006. Fuell never saw the Majors. Knotts went 10-14 for Detroit with a 5.58 ERA, Henkel never made it, and Nate has gone 48-62 with a 4.73 ERA since then. He had a good 2006 season, but otherwise this trade was kind of a wash. Grade: C-
Feb. 5, 2003 - Signed Wilkin Ramirez and a non-drafted free agent. -- Probably the best mix of power and speed in the system, Wilkin has an outside chance of helping Detroit in late 2009. Grade: B-
Mar. 28, 2003 - Released Damion Easley -- Easley slugged a robust .355 that year, yet was making $6.25 mil. He's been a part time player ever since. Grade: B
Draft
Round 1 - Scott Moore - Career minor leaguer. Round 2 - Brent Clevlen - Good year in AAA, flashes big league tools, but has yet to put it all together. Round 3 - Curtis Granderson - All-Star caliber center fielder. Round 3 - Matt Pender - career over by 2004. Round 11 - Joel Zumaya - Electric arm still a key part of the team's future. Round 13 - Anthony Reyes - Didn't sign, and went on to beat the Tigers in the 2006 World Series.
Who they could have taken instead of Moore: Jeff Francis, Jeremy Hermida, Joe Saunders, Khalil Greene, Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher, Cole Hamels, James Loney, Jeremy Guthrie, Jeff Francoeur, Joe Blanton, Matt Cain,
Overall: A- -- Moore was a bust, made more prominent by the talent taken after him, and the book is still out on Clevlen, but any time you can get a player like Granderson and an arm like Zumaya, I think you're doing okay.
Other: Fired manager Phil Garner, hired Luis Pujols as his replacement.
2003
I'm pretty confident in stating that this was the worst baseball team I'll ever see in my lifetime. Dombrowski clearly knew this team would be awful, and thus he pulled a publicity stunt by hiring Trammel, Gibby, and Parrish as coaches. Most saw the hirings for what they were worth, but they at least generated some interest in the team.
Transactions
April 29 - Released Craig Paquette. -- He was their 6th highest paid player ($2.625 mil) and he was awful. He never played another game. Grade: A
May 12 - Signed Freddi Dolsi as a non-drafted free agent. -- Too soon to tell about him, but he has a great arm and closer potential. Grade: B
May 22 - Signed 17-year-old Jair Jurrjens as an amateur free agent. -- He certainly seems to be a quality Big League pitcher. Grade: A
May 27 - Traded Chad Petty and Noochie Varner to the Milwaukee Brewers. Received Alex Sanchez. -- Sanchez was a strange player, in that he could hit .300 and steal you 50 bases, but he would also get caught stealing 25+ times and never walked. This wasn't a fleecing by any means, but Sanchez at least helped for one year, and the other guys never made it. Grade: C+
August 27 - Released Steve Sparks. -- Somehow this bum was making $4.5 million. He won three more games in his big league career. Grade: A
December 7 - Signed Marcus Thames as a free agent. -- There are times when Marcus looks like Ryan Howard, and other times when he looks like Rob Deer. He does had prodigious power though, and he certainly helped out the 2006 team. Not bad for a free agent. Grade: B+
December 15 - Drafted Chris Shelton from the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 2003 rule 5 draft. -- There was a time when this looked like the deal of the century, but we now know Shelton to be merely a fluke. Still, he did help in 2006. Grade: C+
December 19 - Signed Fernando Vina and Rondell White as free agents. -- Vina landed a two-year, $6 million contract from the Tigers. He played all of 29 games. Grade: F White received the same deal, but was fairly productive in Detroit: .290, with 31 HR and 120 RBI in 218 games over two seasons. Grade: B
December 30 - Signed Jason Johnson as a free agent. -- As ridiculous as it sounds now, Johnson was supposed to be our Ace. He got $7 mil for two seasons, and proceeded to go 16-28 with a 4.82 ERA. Grade: D-
January 8, 2004 - Traded Ramon Santiago and Juan Gonzalez (minors) to the Seattle Mariners. Received Carlos Guillen. -- Well, well, well...this move wasn't half bad, now was it? Especially when you consider that Juan Gonzalez is still in the minors, and Santiago is back on the team. Guillen has hit .309 with 74 HR, 390R, 358 RBI, and 55 steals in 623 games spanning 4+ seasons. Grade: A+
February 6, 2004 - Signed Ivan Rodriguez as a free agent. -- This was the big one; a move that perhaps ended up having more symbolic value than on-field value. It showed that the Tigers were serious about turning around their fortunes. Pudge hit .298 with 62 HR, 300R, 300RBI, and 30 steals in 611 games spanning 4+ seasons. The price tag was rather hefty though, coming in at around $50 mil for 5 seasons. That said, it's not my money. Grade: A
March 29, 2004 - Signed Ugueth Urbina as a free agent. -- Ooh Gee signed for about $4 mil, and he was coming off a season in which he recorded 32 saves with a 2.81 ERA. At the age of 30, he certainly looked like a viable closer. However, with the Tigers he had a poor 2004 season and was shiped off the the Phillies a year later when he went nuts on the team plane. Grade: D+
April 1, 2004 - Traded Cody Ross to the LA Dodgers for Steve Colyer. -- Colyer was pretty darn awful in 2004, posting a 6.47 ERA in 41 appearances. Ross, on the other hand, has seen moderate success as a big leaguer, though he remains not much more than a platoon outfielder. Grade: D+
Draft Round 1 - Kyle Sleeth - Career derailed by injuries, and I blame this quote from MLB.com "Long career likely." Round 2 - Jay Sborz - Injuries and ineffectiveness have been his hallmarks thus far. Round 3 - Tony Giarratano - career ruined by injuries. Round 4 - Josh Rainwater - Progressing through the minor, though unlikely to ever see the Bigs. Round 5 - Danny Zell - Outside shot of becoming a lefty specialist in the majors, though unlikely. Round 7 - Virgil Vasquez - Fairly effective AAA pitcher who doesn't have the stuff for the Majors. Round 11 - Brian Rogers - Notable only for being the player shipped to Pittsburgh for Sean Casey. Traded back to Detroit for Denny Bautista. Round 16 - Jordan Tata - Once intriguing arm on the long road to recovery...or inching closer to oblivion. Round 48 - Dusty Ryan - Big kid with some decent pop may be Detroit's backup catcher next season.
Who they could have taken instead of Sleeth: Nick Markakis, Paul Maholm, John Danks, Ian Stewart, Lastings Milledge, Aaron Hill, Conor Jackson, Chad Cordero, Chad Billingsley, Carlos Quentin, Saltalamacchia, Adam Jones.
Overall: D- --It's tough when your hopes hinge on Tata and a potential backup catcher.
2004
This team, led by Pudge Rodriguez, improved by 29 games over the 2003 squad, but they still had a long way to go. There were good signs though, with players like Pena, Monroe, Infante, Bonderman, and Robertson showing promise.
Transactions Not a whole lot to talk about here.
April 12, 2004 - Signed Esteban Yan as a free agent. -- Yan was relatively inexpensive at $650,000, and he actually had one of his most productive years in Detroit as a setup man and occasional closer. Grade: B
August 13 - Released Danny Patterson. -- This guy was making close to $3 mil, and like many others, after being released by Detroit, he never played again. Grade C+
October 15 - Matt Anderson granted Free Agency. -- Once future closer had become a $3-4 million albatross. Only pitched 10 innings since. Grade: C+
November 18 - Signed Troy Percival as a free agent. -- Percival was brought in to be the hammer at the end of the bullpen, but he was awful in his half-season (25 IP, 5.76 ERA) and then he suffered what was thought to be a career-ending injury. Not the sort of production you want for a 2-year, $12 million contract. Grade: F
December 21 - Eric Munson granted Free Agency. -- Munson was a high draft pick, but it became clear that he wasn't worth the $2 Mil he would have made. He's done very little since. Grade: B
January 5, 2005 - Traded Anderson Hernandez to the New York Mets for Vance Wilson. -- Not a huge Deal, but Vance was a quality backup catcher before getting hurt. Hernandez has seen 87 ABs in parts of three seasons. Grade: C+
February 7, 2005 - Signed Magglio Ordonez as a free agent. -- This was certainly a risky deal, with Magglio coming off a strange surgery, yet still getting a huge contract. Since signing, Maggs has hit .324, with 74HR , 286R, and 351RBI in 488 games. Grade: A
February 9, 2005 - Traded Roberto Novoa, Scott Moore, and Bo Flowers (minors) to the Chicago Cubs. Received Kyle Farnsworth. -- Novoa pitched a bit for the Cubs, Moore is with the Orioles now, and Flowers never made it. Farnsworth was pretty damn solid for Detroit, though he only lasted for a few months. Grade: B
February 10, 2005 - Signed Jason Grilli as a free agent. -- Yikes, the gas can. Grilli was serviceable in long relief, if annoyingly inconsistent. He was only making like $350,000 though. Grade: C
March 7, 2005 -- Signed Alfredo Figaro as a Minor League free agent. -- Kid has been dominant in the low minors this year, and could be one to watch going forward. Grade: C
Draft
Round 1 - Justin Verlander - He almost didn't sign, but the Tigers called his bluff and I'd say the pick worked out for everyone. Round 2 - Eric Beattie - Career never got off the ground. Round 3 - Jeff Frazier - Unlikely to see the Majors. Was trade to Seattle for Yorman Bazardo, but is back in the Tigers' system. Round 4 - Collin Mahoney - Another guy whose career never went anywhere. Round 5 - Andrew Kown - Doesn't appear to be heading anywhere. Round 14 - James Skelton - Continues to hit and get on base in the minors, just bumped up for a late-season test in AA. Round 34 - Dallas Trahern - Key cog in the trade for Cabrera and Willis. Round 50 - Max Leon - Zero power, but a chance to be a 5th of 6th infielder in the majors.
Who they could have taken instead of Verlander: Jered Weaver, Billy Butler, Stephen Drew, Glen Perkins, Phil Hughes.
Overall: A- -- This grade is almost entirely due to Verlander, but Trahern was valuable, and Skelton could contribute soon.
2005
Expected to compete, the Tigers hung around for a few months, but there were some definite clubhouse problems, and Magglio and Guillen missed half of the season.
Transactions
June 8 - Traded Ugueth Urbina and Ramon Martinez to the Philadelphia Phillies for Placido Polanco. -- Polanco has been fantastic for the Tigers: .321, 23HR, 283R, 193RBI in 434 games. Urbina is in prison. Grade: A+
July 31 - Traded Kyle Farnsworth to the Atlanta Braves for Roman Colon and Zach Miner. -- Farnsworth was not going to re-sign. Colon was the better prospect, but was ineffective and attacked a teammate. Miner has been a solid reliever, and has twice given the rotation a lift. Grade: B-
October 31 - Bobby Higginson granted Free Agency. -- The last of the awful contracts Dombrowski had to get rid of. Was making $9 million to not be in the clubhouse. Grade: B+
November 14 - Signed Chad Durbin as a free agent. -- Durbin was decent in 19 starts for the 2007 team. Grade: C+
Nov. 16 - Signed Luis Marte as an undrafted Free Agent. -- Intriguing arm could help as soon as 2009. Grade: C
November 22 - Signed Bobby Seay as a free agent. -- Key lefty reliever for the past 3 years. Grade: B-
December 15 - Signed Kenny Rogers as a free agent. -- Given a hefty two-year, $16 million contract. Was outstanding in 2006, and injured in 2007. Has compiled a 28-19 record, with a 4.19 ERA. Grade: B+
December 22 - Signed Todd Jones as a free agent. -- With Urbina and Farnsworth gone, and Percival apparently done, Jones was signed to be the closer. For as much grief as he has receiver, for the most part he's done his job. Has compiled a 7-11 record, with 93 Saves and 4.33 ERA. Grade: B
March 26, 2006 - Released Carlos Pena. -- They gave him a shot, but he wasn't consistent enough. His ridiculous 2007 year makes this look bad, but Boston gave up on him too, and he probably needed a change of scenery. Grade: C-
Draft
Round 1 - Cameron Maybin - Tigers went over slot to sign him, and he was the key member of the trade to get Cabrera and Willis. Still considered one of the best prospects in baseball. Round 3 - Chris Robinson - Light-hitting catcher was later traded for Neifi Perez. Round 4 - Kevin Whelan - Solid arm was trade in the Sheffield deal. Round 5 - Jeff Larish - I've never been high on Larish, but some scouts and fans still believe in him. Round 6 - Clete Thomas - Quality player who profiles as a 4th outfielder. Round 11 - Anthony Claggett - Also traded to New York for Sheff. Round 12 - Matt Joyce - Talented young power hitter could blossom into an everyday player. Round 14 - Casper Wells - Intriguing OF prospect has shown a nice combination of power and speed. Round 16 - Mike Hollimon - Doesn't hit for much average, but could potentially be Detroit's starting shortstop in 2009. Round 19 - Burke Badenhop - Sinkerballer was another player traded in the Cabrera deal. Round 30 - Ryan Roberson - Big First Baseman has a lot of pop, but little plate discipline. Round 38 - Zach Putnam - Local kid was never gonna sign.
Who they could have taken instead of Maybin: Jay Bruce, Chris Volstad, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Garza, Clay Buchholz
Overall: A+ This draft helped the team land some big-time talent, and it still holds a remarkable number of guys who could potentially help a big league club. Outstanding.
Other: Fired Alan Trammell, and hired Jim Leyland in October 2005.
2006 Not much needs to be said about this season, other than it was magical, and a number of players had career years.
Transactions
July 31 - Traded Brian Rogers to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Sean Casey. -- Casey was a boon to the team, and they gave up relatively nothing for him. Grade: B+
August 20 - Traded Chris Robinson (minors) to the Chicago Cubs for Neifi Perez. -- Even though Robinson has done nothing, Perez was pretty damn awful. Leyland pushed for this trade with Polanco hurt, but DD could have pushed for more PT for Infante. Grade: D
September 6 - Released Dmitri Young. -- DY had become a clubhouse distraction, so they chose to eat the remainder of his contract. He came back in a big way last year, but he needed to go. Grade: B
September 15 - Selected Matt Stairs off waivers from the Texas Rangers. -- Stairs provided a late boost to a struggling team. Grade: C+
October 15 - Ryan Ludwick granted Free Agency. -- Not much was thought of it at the time, as Ludwick was generally considered a 4A player. Ludwick has instead become an All-Star. The Tigers may not have had room for him, and it may be a fluke, but you never wnat to give away an All-Star for nothing. Grade: D-
November 2 - Troy Percival granted Free Agency. -- Percival has of course come back to be a closer again, but I can't kill them for this, because at the time it looked like he was done. Grade: C
November 10 - Traded Anthony Claggett, Humberto Sanchez, and Kevin Whelan to the New York Yankees for Gary Sheffield. -- Every day this trade inches closer to an F. Whelan and Claggett have been useful arms in the Yankees system, and Fat Bert, though he was injured, is still one of the better arms in their system. Meanwhile, Sheff has given Detroit approximately two good months in return for the $40 million he will make. Grade: D-
November 16 - Signed Sean Casey as a free agent. -- One-year deal was a good move. Grade: B
November 17 - Signed Tim Byrdak as a free agent. -- Brydak was a solid bullpen lefty for the team in 2007. Grade: B
December 12 - Signed Jose Mesa as a free agent. -- Mesa was over-the-hill when they signed him, and he proved it by giving up 16 ER in fewer than 12 innings. Grade: F
December 9 - Tigers sign Brandon Inge to a four-year, $24 mil contract. -- This was a bad contract for a below-average third baseman, but it's actually not an awful deal for an average catcher. Grade: C
December 18 - Tigers sign Jeremy Bonderman to a four-year, $38 mil contract. -- This was actually a fairly good deal for a young power pitcher coming off a 200 K season, but he underperformed in 2007 and was injured this year. Grade: C
February 7, 2007 - Traded Jeff Frazier to the Seattle Mariners for Yorman Bazardo. -- Bazardo has the talent to make this a steal, but he has been awful in Toledo this year. Detroit got Frazier back, so it doesn't hurt. Grade: C
Draft
Round 1- Andrew Miller - Tigers again went over slot to sign the best arm in the draft. Key player in the Cabrera/Willis deal. Round 2 - Ron Bourquin - Has been very disappointing. Round 3 - Brennan Boesch - Unremarkable career so far. Round 4 - Ryan Strieby - Promising slugger knocking the stuffing out of the ball in Lakeland. Round 5 - Scott Sizemore - Very solid player could potentially replace Polanco. Round 7 - Jonah Nickerson - Doesn't have great stuff, but could be Detroit's 5th starter in 2010. Round 8 - Chris Cody - Interesting arm was traded for Jose Capellan in 2007. Round 14 - Brett Jensen - Promising relief candidate went down for elbow surgery this season. Round 16 - Jeff Gerbe - Pretty much the same story as Jensen. Round 19 - Duane Below - Much like Nickerson, Below doesn't have outstanding stuff but he has performed well, and could one day be a back-of-the-rotation starter in Detroit. Round 20 - Casey Fien - Reliever has moved quickly, and could figure into the bullpen conversation next year.
Players they could have taken instead of Miller: Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Chris Perez
Overall: B+ Grabbing Miller again showed the Tigers were serious about improving the team, and they landed a number of players who are on track to help soon.
2007
The Tigers were the best team in baseball for much of the early part of the season, but they inexplicably fell apart in July and August and ended up missing the playoffs.
Transactions
June 20 - Traded Wilfredo Ledezma to the Atlanta Braves for Macay McBride. -- Basically an even trade, though McBride has been injured this season. Grade: C
June 22 - Traded Mike Maroth to the St. Louis Cardinals for Chris Lambert. -- Maroth is now out of baseball, while Lambert, a former 1st round pick, has pitched very well in Toledo. He may not help the Tigers, but at least they got something for Maroth. Grade: B
July 1 - Traded Chris Cody to Milwaukee for Jose Capellan. -- Capellan has a power arm, but did poorly in 14 IP for the Tigers. Cody could help the Brewers bullpen as soon as next year. Grade: D
August 14 - Traded Jack Hannahan to Oakland for Jason Perry. -- Perry is no longer with the Tigers, and Hannahan has been a below-average big leaguer for Oakland. Grade: C-
August 23 - Traded Craig Monroe and cash to the Cubs for Clay Rapada. -- Craig Money was a good story in 2006, but he proved to be a fluke, and has since been dropped by the Cubs and the Twins. Rapada looks like he could be a decent lefty reliever. Grade: C+
October 29 - Traded Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez to Atlanta for Edgar Renteria. -- Well, this bears all the hallmarks of a fleecing. Jurrjens has been outstanding, and looks like he could remain that way for years. Hernandez has been holding his own in high-A, though injuries seem to have hampered his speed so far. Meanwhile, Renteria, a career .290 hitter who made multiple All Star teams, is having his worst offensive season by far. I suspect the Tigers will give him another chance next season. If they do and he's this bad again, or if they don't re-sign, this will easily be the worst deal of Dombrowski's tenure as GM. The only thing that can save it is if Edgar comes back and is an All-Star next season. Grade: F
November 12 - Traded Omar Infante to the Cubs for Jacque Jones. -- I guess the club had just soured on Infante and felt they needed a left-handed bat, but Jones was a complete bust here, and was released after two months. Infante has played well for Atlanta this year. Grade: F
November 13 - Re-signed Todd Jones. -- With Zumaya injuring his shoulder, the Tigers suddenly had to reassess their closer situation. Jones did his job for the first few months of the year, but he pitched poorly, is now injured, and his career is likely over. Grade: D
November 30 - Re-signed LHP Kenny Rogers to a one-year contract. -- Detroit still needed innings, and Rogers has performed adequately. Grade: C-
November 30 - Signed RHP Francisco Cruceta to a one-year contract. -- Cruceta was billed as a guy who could come in and really help the bullpen, but he had Visa problems, and then pitching problems. He's still in the system though. Grade: D
December 4 - Traded Jose Capellan to Colorado for Denny Bautista. -- Another guy who was supposed to help the bullpen, Bautista was wild an ineffective. Capellan would have been the same. Grade: C-
December 5 - Traded Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Dallas Trahern, Burke Badenhop, Eulogio De La Cruz, and Mike Rabelo to Florida for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. -- I suspect some will disagree with my grade here, but even if Willis never pitches again, it would take Maybin becoming the next Ken Griffey Jr. and Miller winning a Cy Young for this to be a bad trade. Cabrera will be the cornerstone of this franchise for years. Grade: A
December 20 - Signed LHP Dontrelle Willis to a three-year contract extension. -- This is the deal that really bothers people, but I sort of buy Dombrowski's explanation: If you feel good enough about the guy to trade for him, then you might as well lock him up. It looks very bad now, but the book isn't closed yet. Grade: D
January 16, 2008 - Signed Nate Robertson to a three-year, $21 mil contract. -- This one was definitely a puzzler, but apparently they thought Nate could return to his form in 2006, when he pitched well enough to win 15-17 games. So far though, he has been awful, and looks like a minor leaguer. Grade: D-
January 17, 2008 - Signed Marcus Thames to a one-year, $1.25 mil contract. -- Marcus put a real spark into the team this year, and continues to provide a lot of power. Grade: B
February 4, 2008 - Signed Curtis Granderson to a five-year, $30.25 mil contract with a club option for 2013. -- Nice move to lock down one of the best young centerfielders in baseball. Decent price too. Grade: A
February 5, 2008 - Traded Michael Hernandez to Texas for Armando Galarraga. -- Even if Galarraga is a fluke, Hernandez is going nowhere, which makes this an absolute steal. Grade: A
Draft Round 1 - Rick Porcello - Detroit once again went over slot to land one of the best arms in the draft. Kid looks like the real deal. Round 1A - Brandon Hamilton - Hamilton has good stuff, but he's at least 3 years away. Round 2 - Danny Worth - Has struggled a bit in the field, but has moved very rapidly, and could be in the Bigs next year. Round 3 - Luke Putkonen - Nothing special, and too soon to tell. Round 4 - Charlie Furbush - Lefty had a great pro debut and looked like he could move quickly, but went down with an arm injury. Round 5 - Casey Crosby - Detroit went over slot again for this power lefty who throws in the low-mid 90s and is very athletic. He needs refinement, and is rehabbing from TJ surgery. Round 6 - Cale Iorg - The team again went over slot, and Iorg is the team's best position prospect. He is still adjusting to baseball after a two-year break for his Mormon mission, but he could help at 3rd or SS as soon as late 2009. Round 9 - Justin Henry - Speedy kid with a great eye, could be Polanco's replacement if Sizemore or Hollimon don't cut it. Round 13 - Londell Taylor - Extremely athletic kid is also extremely raw. Round 26 - Matt Hoffman - Another guy Detroit paid extra to land, Hoffman is a lefty with a promising arm. Round 30 - Jonathan Kibler - This Sparty has absolutely handcuffed hitters in A-ball, and could be a late-round gem. Round 34 - Kyle Peter - Speed-demon with a good eye.
Overall: B+ Hard to say this early, but Porcello has been outstanding, Iorg should help soon, and a few others look promising.
2008
The 2008 season, thus far, has been a massive disappointment. Dontrelle Willis, Edgar Renteria, Jacque Jones, and Gary Sheffield have been complete busts, Bonderman is out for the year with an injury, Robertson and Rogers have been disappointing, Verlander has underperformed, and the bullpen has been awful. It's amazing they are .500.
Transactions
April 30 - Traded Jason Gilli to Colorado for Zach Simons. -- I, like everyone, was amazed they could trade Grilli, and on top of that this Simons kid has actually been very good for Lakeland. Grilli has been decent for Colorado. Grade: C+
May 13 - Released Jacque Jones. -- The Jones experiment was over quickly. It gave Joyce a chance to play though. Grade: D+
June 10 - Optioned Dontrelle Willis to Single-A Lakeland. -- A move that had to be made. Grade: NA
July 30 - Traded Ivan Rodriguez to the Yankees for Kyle Farnsworth. -- Detroit needed bullpen help, and they were ready to move on with Inge at catcher. In the end, this deal is unlikely to make a difference one way or the other. Grade: C
Draft
Round 1 - Ryan Perry - Power reliever who should move quickly. Round 3 - Cody Satterwhite - Another power reliever. Round 4 - Minor League Baseball: Stats: Player - Power reliever. Round 6 - Brett Jacobson - Guess what he is? Round 7 - Alex Avila - Son of assistant GM Al Avila. Seems to have a decent eye. Round 8 - Tyler Stohr - Yeah...a reliever. Round 9 - Jade Todd - High school lefty starter worth watching. Round 11 - Anthony Shawler - Interesting starter who misses a lot of bats. Round 12 - Robert Weinhardt - Another power reliever. Round 13 - Minor League Baseball: Stats: Player - Has begun his pro career absolutely raking. Round 18 - Thad Weber - Another power reliever.
Overall: NA It's just too soon to know anything, though the overemphasis on hard-throwing college relievers is puzzling. I suspect they will try to turn at least a few of them into starters.
END
So there is it, my rundown of Dave Dombrowski's tenure as the GM of the Detroit Tigers. I think he's done a fine job, though I can concede that a larger percentage of his recent moves have been unsuccessful. The trades for Sheffield and Renteria are looking worse every day, and the contracts to Willis, Robertson, and Inge are certainly questionable. Still, I think he made all the moves with the intention of winning right now, and I can't fault him for that. I don't agree with this year's draft strategy, but in general I think he has stocked the minors with a lot of talent that can help the big league team in one way or another.
The ultimate question for me is, has Dave Dombrowski furnished this team with enough talent to win? I think he has.
Thoughts?
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TheGeneral
All-Andre Drummond
Perma-Newb
Dantonio > Harbaugh
Posts: 108
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Post by TheGeneral on Dec 8, 2014 16:12:13 GMT -5
CB's forgetting to grade the Tigers letting Jamie Walker sign with the Orioles after the 2006 season and the subsequent hammer it took to my psyche is still unforgivable in my book.
Long live the lefty from WV
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Post by philly on Jan 28, 2015 13:02:55 GMT -5
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jan 29, 2015 9:48:27 GMT -5
I won't disagree that the Tigers have the worst farm system in baseball right now, but that's ultimately a meaningless distinction for a team that has won the division four years in a row and is in good position to win it again. The goal is to win at the MLB level, and the Tigers have been doing that for the better part of a decade, largely by trading prospects for major league talent. Identifying and developing amateur talent is obviously very important, and the Tigers aren't really great at that, but looking at your own prospects honestly is almost as important, and the Tigers are pretty spectacular at that. Time after time they trade prospects at the height of their value, and they haven't really paid the price for it yet. This method obviously can't continue forever though...there just aren't many trade chips left in the system. But they do have three of the top 65 picks in the 2015 draft, so they should be able to get a nice infusion of talent.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Jan 29, 2015 13:54:55 GMT -5
The first of the big national prospect lists has come out. Keith Law has only one Tiger on the list, ranking last year's first-rounder Derek Hill 85th:
Also, former Tigers prospect Jake Thompson (traded for Soria) came in at #52:
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2015 0:49:54 GMT -5
I won't disagree that the Tigers have the worst farm system in baseball right now, but that's ultimately a meaningless distinction for a team that has won the division four years in a row and is in good position to win it again. The goal is to win at the MLB level, and the Tigers have been doing that for the better part of a decade, largely by trading prospects for major league talent. Identifying and developing amateur talent is obviously very important, and the Tigers aren't really great at that, but looking at your own prospects honestly is almost as important, and the Tigers are pretty spectacular at that. Time after time they trade prospects at the height of their value, and they haven't really paid the price for it yet. This method obviously can't continue forever though...there just aren't many trade chips left in the system. But they do have three of the top 65 picks in the 2015 draft, so they should be able to get a nice infusion of talent. I think they problem people have isn't the here and now, but a few years from now when you have aging stars and no farm. It's why tigers fans are such bishes per juicy and jhommyz. Need to win now, cause things look bad 3-5 years from now.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Mar 18, 2015 12:20:33 GMT -5
Greetings! I've completed my 2015 rankings for the Tigers position prospects, and here they are. Before I get to the list, just a few notes and reminders. First, and most importantly, I am not a scout, and I do not talk to scouts. These rankings are based primarily on freely available information anyone else can find, and whenever possible, my own personal viewing. I'm no more qualified to do this list than anyone else, but I enjoy it, and it helps me get a better idea of what to expect from these kids. A note about the format...this year I've added two scouting grades for all five tools for each player (hit, power, speed, arm, defense) with the first grade denoting what the player would do in the Majors right now, and the second grade indicating an idealization of each tool. The grades are based on the 20-80 scale, where 50 is an MLB Average tool. It should be noted that MLB average is pretty damn good, though offensive numbers continue to go down. Last year's average AL hitter produced a .253/.316/.390 line for a less-than-stout .706 OPS, with a 19.4% K rate and an 8% walk rate. The AL hitter closest to average last year? Evan Longoria, who hit .253/.320/.404, with an 19% K rate, and an 8.2% walk rate. Longoria was typically solid in the field and on the basepaths last year, so even with his utterly average offensive performance, he produced 3.4 WAR at both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference. As I said, average is pretty damn good. Some tool grade examples on the current Tigers roster: Miguel Cabrera is an 80 hitter with power that is at least 70-grade, and probably more like 75 Rajai Davis has 70-grade speed Yoenis Cespedes has an 80-grade outfield arm Jose Iglesias has a 70 glove, if not better Also new this year is the Who the Hell is That category, dedicated to the minor-league free agents who are no longer prospects but sometimes appear from out of nowhere. Sometimes they provide a spark like Quintin Berry, but the vast majority of the time they are Ezequiel Carrera. J.D. Martinez was a unicorn, and you should never expect that again. Hope you enjoy this year's list! Overview: The Tigers system is generally regarded as one of the worst, if not THE worst in all of baseball. That isn't to say there aren't future major leaguers in the organization, but that almost none of those prospects appear to have the sort of talent to be an impact player at the MLB level. Minor-league systems are very fluid things, however, and every year prospects pop up from seemingly nowhere to provide trade value or potential help in the Majors. As currently constituted, the system has solid OF depth, although again most of the players there don't appear to have a ton of upside. There is also some nice depth at catcher, though most of it is at the lower levels right now. Last Year's List2014 | Player
| 2015 Rank
| 1
| Nick Castellanos
| Graduated
| 2
| James McCann
| #2
| 3
| Steven Moya
| #3
| 4
| Eugenio Suarez
| Traded to Reds
| 5
| Hernan Perez
| #4
| 6
| Daniel Fields
| #7
| 7
| Harold Castro
| #9
| 8
| Devon Travis
| Traded to Blue Jays
| 9
| Tyler Collins
| #5
| 10
| Austin Schotts
| Dropped Out
| 11
| Javier Betancourt
| #8
| 12
| Steven Fuentes
| #12
| 13
| Ben Verlander
| Dropped Out
| 14
| Domingo Leyba
| Traded to Diamondbacks
| 15
| Willy Adames
| Traded to Rays
| 16
| Connor Harrell
| #11
| 17
| Bryan Holaday
| Graduated
| 18
| Tyler Gibson
| Dropped Out
| 19
| Franklin Navarro
| #16
| 20
| Dixon Machado
| #6
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Rank | Name | Pos | B/T
| Ht/Wt
| Age | Acquired | Hit
| Pow | Run | Arm | Field | 1
| Derek Hill
| OF
| R/R
| 6'2, 195
| 19
| '14 Draft (1st)
| 20/50
| 20/45
| 70/65
| 50/55
| 45/70
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2014: The Tigers feel fortunate to have drafted hill 23rd overall in the 2014 draft, as his raw package of tools has landed him toward the bottom of most top-100 prospect lists for 2015. He was selected out of Elk Grove High School in California, where he batted .500 with 11 doubles, 7 triples, and 29 steals. His father Orsino made it all the way to AAA before eventually becoming a scout for the Dodgers, and Hill is also a cousin of Darryl Strawberry, who incidentally was my favorite player growing up. Despite his bloodlines, Hill is still considered a bit raw, because he grew up facing lesser competition in Iowa before moving to California in 2011. Hill struggled in his first taste of professional ball, hitting just .208/.296/.295 with 8 XBH, 45 K, 18 BB, and 11 steals in 13 tries in 47 games between the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League, and the college-heavy competition of the short-season New York Penn League. The Good: Without a doubt the toolsiest Tigers draftee since Cameron Maybin, Hill offers tantalizing potential, with four tools that project to be at least average at the MLB level. He stands out most for his defense, where he was generally regarded as the best outfield defender in the entire 2014 draft, and his plus-plus speed that lets him easily leg out doubles and triples, and glide to the gaps to track down deep fly balls. He also has a short, simple swing that should lead to plenty of line drives, he has a fairly good sense of the strike zone, and his arm is above-average for a center fielder. The Bad: While some think Hill may eventually grow into average-or-better power, at this point it seems unlikely given the relatively flat nature of his swing. Other than that, the main concerns are just with how young and raw he is. He has a long, long road to get to the Majors, and along the way he'll have to show the ability to recognize spin better, prove he can make adjustments at the plate, and deal with the rigors of playing every day for 5+ months. 2015: The Tigers are notoriously aggressive when it comes to promoting their top prospects, so it wouldn't shock me at all if they send Hill to low-A West Michigan. At this point I think that would be a mistake though, as I think he's still a bit too rough around the edges to handle that level of competition. The best course of action is probably to keep him in extended spring training until around the 2015 draft, and then send him back to short-season A-ball in Connecticut. Then he can hit low-A in 2016, and, if all goes according to plan, he'll make his MLB debut in 2018 or 2019, when he'll be 23. Irresponsible Comparison: Austin Jackson, with more steals Rank | Name | Pos | B/T
| Ht/Wt
| Age | Acquired | Hit
| Pow | Run | Arm | Field | 2
| James McCann
| C
| R/R
| 6'2, 210
| 24
| '11 Draft (2nd)
| 40/45
| 35/40
| 30/30
| 50/55
| 50/55
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2014: McCann was the 76th player taken in the 2011 draft, but he was the Tigers' first selection because they forfeited their first-round pick to sign V-Mart. At the time it seemed like an extremely boring pick in what was considered a loaded draft (and the last draft before the new hard slotting rules were implemented), but as time goes on it appears to be a solid choice. McCann has always been known for his strong defense, but in 2014 he had his best offensive season as a pro, hitting .295/.343/.427 with 7 HR and 34 doubles in 109 games for AAA Toledo, and eventually getting a cup of coffee in Detroit, where he registered 3 hits in 12 ABs. The Good: As I mentioned above, McCann has always been known for his defense. He's not spectacular, but he's solidly above average, showing the soft hands to receive velocity and frame pitches, a solid arm that has let him throw out nearly 40% of basestealers as a pro, and the leadership skills to manage a pitching staff. McCann has solid bat-to-ball skills, particularly against left-handed pitchers, who he knocked around to the tune of a .342/.404/.475 slash line last year. He has solid gap power, and while he's slow, he's a solid baserunner. The Bad: Nothing really stands out about McCann. His pure hitting skills are hurt a bit by his lack of patience and a tendency to chase pitches out of the zone (90 Ks v. 25 BB), although that wasn't the case as much against lefties. His power is to the gaps, meaning he's unlikely to ever hit more than 8 HRs in any given season, and his overall profile may be more of a solid backup than an MLB regular. 2015: McCann's strong defense and ability to hit lefties make him an ideal platoon partner for Alex Avila, and I'd be shocked if he doesn't beat out Bryan Holaday for that role in spring training. I suppose there's a small chance the Tigers think McCann can develop a bit further in AAA, in the hopes of becoming the everyday catcher in 2016, but I think he's better off working on that stuff in the Majors. Ideally he plays in 70-80 games next year, and he and Avila combine to form a very effective platoon. Irresponsible Comparison: Wellington Castillo Rank | Name | Pos | B/T
| Ht/Wt
| Age | Acquired | Hit
| Pow | Run | Arm | Field | 3
| Steven Moya
| OF
| L/R
| 6'7, 240
| 19
| '08 Intl. FA
| 20/30
| 50/80
| 50/45
| 50/60
| 40/45
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2014: Moya was born in Puerto Rico, but raised in the Dominican Republic, and was actually more interested in karate than anything else as a kid, but he switched to baseball when he starting get enormous. He's a natural right-handed hitter, but the Tigers signed him back when he was skinny and tall in 2008 because they saw a lot of power potential in his left-handed swing. There have been a LOT of growing pains since then, with tons of strikeouts, few walks, a couple of injures (TJ surgery in 2012, hamstring and shoulder in 2013), and his raw power never truly translating to games. Until last year, when he went absolutely bonkers. Moya hit .276/.305/.555 in 133 games at AA Erie, pounding out 35 homers, 33 doubles, and 3 triples to go along with 16 steals in 20 attempts, all while striking out 161 times to just 25 walks. Like McCann, Moya also got a cup of coffee in the bigs, notching 3 singles in his first 11 MLB at-bats. The Tigers then sent him to the Arizona Fall League, where he added 5 more homers, 6 more doubles, another triple, 5 steals in 7 tries, 6 walks, and 29 more Ks. Altogether, last year he played 167 games, collecting 83 XBH (40HR), 21 steals in 27 tries, 31 BBs, and 201 Ks. The Good: Moya has the sort of monstrous, top-of-the-scale power that is very rare, but he's also extremely athletic for a player of his size. He actually shows a propensity for tracking pitches and recognizing spin, and his raw bat-to-ball skills are better than his K numbers would indicate. He's a long strider who shows surprising speed on the basepaths, and he has a very strong, if somewhat inconsistent arm in right field. He's a humble kid with good makeup who knows his weaknesses and wants to improve. The Bad: Moya is a giant, and as such, he has giant holes in his swing. He struggles a great deal with offspeed pitches, premium velocity can eat him up because his bat isn't particularly quick, it's hard for him to hit inside pitches, and he struggles so mightily against arm-side pitching (lefties) that he briefly experimented with switch hitting last year. His plate discipline is still somewhere between horrid and abominable, and it seems unlikely that it will improve against better pitching. He has the raw athleticism and arm strength to be a solid right fielder, but he doesn't read the ball terribly well off the bat, making his routes a bit of an adventure, and his throwing mechanics sometimes get out of whack. 2015: As a member of the 40-man roster, Moya will spend a lot of time in spring camp with the Tigers this year, but barring a spectacular showing or a rash of injuries, he's ticketed for Toledo. Dombrowski and Al Avila have both used the word "superstar" when talking about Moya, and while he does have that sort of a ceiling, he has a ton of improvement to make before he can even be a MLB regular. He spent all winter in Lakeland, which is a good start, but he could probably use 500-1000 ABs in Toledo before he's truly ready for the Majors. Irresponsible Comparison: Carlos Peguero Rank | Name | Pos | B/T
| Ht/Wt
| Age | Acquired | Hit
| Pow | Run | Arm | Field | 4
| Hernan Perez
| UTIL
| R/R
| 6'2, 195
| 24
| '07 Intl. FA
| 35/45
| 25/35
| 50/50
| 50/50
| 50/50
|
2014: It feels Perez has been around forever, because he's seen MLB action in each of the last three seasons, and he actually played fairly often in 2013. But he doesn't turn 24 until about a week before the 2015 season starts, and he still qualifies as a rookie, so he's a prospect. His minor-league stats have been fairly underwhelming since he began playing full-season ball in 2010, with his average hovering in the .230-.250 range, and his HR totals generally fitting on one hand. But in 2013 he managed to hit .301/.330/.410 with 28 steals in 103 games between AA and AAA, and he appeared to be making good progress. He headed back to Toledo to begin last year, and again had a solid season, hitting .287/.331/.404 with 45 XBH (6 HR) and 24 steals in 133 games, before seeing limited action for the Tigers in September. The Good: Perez has solid bat-to-ball skills, he doesn't strike out at a high rate and battles when he gets in 2-strike counts, and he has enough gap power in his bat to keep pitchers honest. He shows solid-average speed and is a good baseruner, having stolen more than 20 bases in the minors in each of the last 4 seasons. He's a solid, steady fielder who can handle shortstop and third base without embarrassing himself, and he has an average arm that lets him make all the routine plays. The Bad: Perez's offensive numbers will likely never match up with his solid raw hitting tools because he's too aggressive, often putting pitcher's pitches into play early in counts, and preventing himself from making solid contact. This also hampers his ability to take walks, and saps his already below-average power. And while Perez can technically play every infield spot, his arm isn't ideal for third, and his range and his arm are subpar for a shortstop, so he appears to be locked into playing second. 2015: There isn't a clear opening for Perez on the roster right now, with Iglesisas set to return at SS, Kinsler back at 2B, and Andrew Romine likely to be the defensive utility guy. I have seen some reports that Perez will work in the outfield as well this spring, which is probably wise for him. He lacks the sort of impact bat to be a starter for a good team, but if he can play the OF at an acceptable level -- and his speed would theoretically allow him to play CF -- then he could take over the super utility role previously held by Don Kelly. I actually think there's a solid chance we see Perez accomplish this, because he's a gamer, and because the Tigers figure to be careful with Iglesias this season. Irresponsible Comparison: Omar Infante Rank | Name | Pos | B/T
| Ht/Wt
| Age | Acquired | Hit
| Pow | Run | Arm | Field | 5
| Tyler Collins
| OF
| L/L
| 5'11, 215
| 24
| '11 Draft (6th)
| 40/45
| 45/50
| 45/45
| 50/50
| 45/50
|
2014: The Tigers grabbed Collins in the 6th round of the 2011 draft out of a small Junior College in Texas, and for most of the next 18 months it looked like they got a steal. In his first full season as a pro at high-A Lakeland Collins hit .290/.371/.429 with only 7 HRs but close to 50 XBH, nearly as many walks as Ks, and 20 steals in 23 tries. But the following year in AA, through some combination of better pitching and an altered approach, Collins' average plummeted to .240, his HR total jumped to 21, and while he still took his walks, his strikeout total nearly doubled. Nevertheless, he was invited to spring training in 2014, where he performed well enough that he actually won the 25th spot on the roster and came north with the Tigers. He barely played when he came up though, going just 2/14 before heading to Toledo in mid-April. He pretty much duplicated his AA numbers for Toledo last year, hitting .263 with 18 HRs, 49 BB, and 116 K. He rejoined the Tigers in September, hitting his first career HR against the Indians. The Good: Colllins combines solid-to-average tools across the board. At one point he looked like he might be able to hit for a decent average, but he appears to have abandoned that approach in an attempt to sell out for more power. He's a compact guy who is more athletic than he appears, but he's a slightly below-average runner. His arm and fielding are both fringy, but they might play to average with more reps. He can man CF in an emergency, but he's probably best in LF. The Bad: The flip side to Collins having solid tools across the board is that he doesn't have any one carrying tool. He has attempted to turn into a power hitter, but he just doesn't have the raw power to be effective at that, and as a result he tries to pull the ball too much and swings and misses too often. Collins has pretty good baserunning instincts, but he's not a real threat on the basepaths, and his outfield range and arm don't really profile anywhere but LF. 2015: The Tigers appear to have four outfielders ready to go for 2015 in J.D. Martinez, Yoenis Cespedes, Rajai Davis, and Anthony Gose, so Collins' best hope is to be a 5th OF who can occasionally spell one of the starters or provide a bit of lefty pop. I wouldn't consider him a priority prospect at this point, but the Tigers may view him as the 2016 RF if Moya isn't ready, so he could return to Toledo for the year for more seasoning. In any event, he doesn't figure to ever be more than a 4th OF on a good team. Irresponsible Comparison: The older version of Jason Kubel Rank | Name | Pos | B/T
| Ht/Wt
| Age | Acquired | Hit
| Pow | Run | Arm | Field | 6
| Dixon Machado
| SS
| R/R
| 6'1, 170
| 23
| '08 Intl. FA
| 25/35
| 20/20
| 50/50
| 70/70
| 60/65
|
2014: The Tigers signed Machado as an extremely slight 16-year-old with really nice defensive tools, hoping that he would one day grow into some offensive ability as he got bigger and stronger. They waited for a very long time. Machado gradually made his way through the system, moving one level at a time, but always struggling to do much damage on offense. Still, his defensive ability was so strong that the Tigers actually added him to their 40-man roster after 2012, even though he only hit .195/.283/.252 in 119 games at high-A. He returned to Lakeland the next season, but injuries kept him off the field for most of the season, and at the end of 2013 the Tigers removed him from their 40-man roster. Healthy again in 2014, he returned to Lakeland a third time, and was hitting just .252 through the first two months of the season when the Tigers promoted him to AA Erie. And then something clicked, and he went crazy, hitting .305/.391/.442 over 90 games, with more walks than Ks, and 29 XBH, including 5 HRs (nearly equaling his career total up to that point). The Tigers rewarded his progress by adding him to the 40-man again. The Good: Machado's calling card always has been, and always will be his defense. He offers solid range, quick reactions, soft hands, a fast release, and an absolute cannon of an arm. He can make spectacular plays, and while he does occasionally lapse in the field, he's generally reliable. He used to be a plus runner, but he's now average, and he does have some decent bat-to-ball skills combined with a great idea of the strike zone and solid plate discipline. The Bad: It's always been about a lack of power with Machado, and despite his stunning outburst of pop in AA last year, I just can't rate him higher, because he has struggled with his bat for years, and Erie has a short LF porch. Most of the time a lacking hit tool dings a prospect's usable power tool, but for Machado it's reversed. He actually has a pretty solid hit tool, but his lack of power prevents him from doing much damage, and leads to him getting overpowered by good pitchers. 2015: Machado has yet to play in AAA, and with Suarez off to the Reds, he's the odds-on-favorite to man short for the Mud Hens. The Tigers would be wise to keep him there all year so he can get some more seasoning, and they can see if his offensive breakout was real. If it was, he becomes a very legitimate prospect, one who would likely make a few top-100 lists, and could be an everyday player in the Majors. For now, I'm cautiously optimistic. If nothing else, he will make the Majors as a glove-first backup, and he could be a solid trade chip. Irresponsible Comparison: Jose Iglesias lite Rank | Name | Pos | B/T
| Ht/Wt
| Age | Acquired | Hit
| Pow | Run | Arm | Field | 7
| Daniel Fields
| OF
| L/R
| 6'2, 215
| 24
| '09 Draft (6th)
| 20/30
| 30/50
| 55/55
| 40/45
| 50/55
|
2014: When the Tigers dropped more than $1.5 million to lure Fields away from the University of Michigan, they thought they were getting a plus athlete who was raw, but had good bloodlines (his dad Bruce played briefly in the Majors, and has been a long-time hitting coach). When Fields held his own after a surprising assignment to high-A Lakeland, it looked like a great investment, but almost nothing has gone right for Fields since. He was worse in a return trip to Lakeland in 2011, so they had to send him back there again in 2012. He improved a bit, so he spent the 2nd half of the year in AA Erie, and he returned to Erie in 2013, posting a solid line of .284/.356/.435 with 43 XBH, 10 HR, and 24 steals in 31 tries. He earned a promotion to Toledo last year, where he was in the middle of bouncing back from a brutal April when he was hit by a pitch and broke his hand. He missed about 40 games, and never really got back on track. The Tigers sent him to the Arizona Fall League, where he hit .255/.375/.319 in 12 games. The Good: Fields is still a plus athlete and occasionally shows flashes of the tools that got him that bonus. His best tool at this point is probably his defense, where he has developed good instincts and has more than enough range to handle all three OF spots. His speed is a tick above average, he has gradually gained the instincts to be a decent basestealer when he runs, and he has enough raw power to hit 15 or more homers in his prime. The Bad: It just doesn't look like Fields will ever be able to hit MLB pitching with any consistency. He struggles with plus velocity, he doesn't pick up spin very well, and I'm far from a scout, but his swing just looks wrong, almost like his top hand interferes with his bottom hand. He used to take a good amount of walks, but those have disappeared as he began facing more advanced pitchers. His poor hit tool likely means he will never tap into his power, and while his speed is nice, it's not the game-changing tool it would need to be to make up for his other issues. Fields had a solid arm coming out of high school, but he has never quite mastered the art of throwing for the OF, so he may fit best in LF. 2015: Fields is ticketed for a return to Toledo, where he will hopefully stay healthy and get 125+ games. He's been in the system for 5 years now, and he just turned 24, but he's still in need of development. He IS on the 40-man roster, but it would probably take major a major injury to Gose, Davis, or both before Fields sees time in Detroit. The tools are still there to tantalize, but the most likely scenario is Fields is a 4th or 5th OF. Irresponsible Comparison: Jordan Danks Rank | Name | Pos | B/T
| Ht/Wt
| Age | Acquired | Hit
| Pow | Run | Arm | Field | 8
| Javier Betancourt
| 2B
| R/R
| 6', 180
| 19
| '11 Intl. FA
| 35/55
| 25/40
| 45/45
| 50/50
| 50/50
|
2014: Signed at 16 out of Venezuela, Betancourt has moved through the system very quickly so far, thanks in part to a very mature understanding of the game. He hit .333 in 32 Venezuelan Summer League games in 2012, came to the states and hit .333 again in 50 Gulf Coast League games in 2013, and he was hitting .290 through the first 4 months of the season in Low-A West Michigan before tiring and hitting just .170 in August. He finished with a .269/.307/.344 line in 134 games, with 27 XBH, 26 walks, and 81 strikeouts. The Good: Betancourt has one of the best pure hit tools in the system, with a simple swing gear toward hard, line-drive contact. He's the nephew of former All-star Edgardo Alfonzo, and Betancourt plays the sport with a headiness one would expect from someone who grew up around the game. He doesn't have a ton of power, but he's not punchless, and there's a chance he may even grow into average power one day. He's steady in the field, and has played SS before, but he's not a super athletic kid and fits better at 2B. The Bad: Betancourt isn't a toolsy kid, so he's never gonna wow observers. His solid hit tool may play down because he's an aggressive swinger with a big leg kick who doesn't take a ton of walks, his power is unlikely to scare many pitchers, and he's not much of a threat on the basepaths. There's nothing special about his arm or his glove, so he'll have to continue to hit very well to make it as a second baseman. 2015: With Willy Adames and Domingo Leyba both traded in the last year, the path for Betancourt has become much clearer. He'll almost certainly head to high-A Lakeland for the entire year, which is quite impressive for a kid who won't turn 20 until May. Even though he fits best at second, it wouldn't shock me if he's the starting SS for the Flying Tigers...and why not? Let him play there until he proves he can't. If everything goes to plan, Betancourt will move up the ladder one step at a time, and be ready for the Majors as 23-year-old in 2018. He's probably a utility guy, but he has a solid chance to be an everyday player. Irresponsible Comparison: Steve Tolleson Rank | Name | Pos | B/T
| Ht/Wt
| Age | Acquired | Hit
| Pow | Run | Arm | Field | 9
| Harold Castro
| OF
| L/R
| 6', 165
| 21
| '11 Intl. FA
| 35/60
| 20/30
| 55/50
| 45/50
| 40/50
|
2014: Castro joined the organization as a 17-year-old and he immediately started hitting the hell out of the ball. He hit .313 in 63 games in the Venezuelan Summer League in 2011, then .311 in 51 games in the GCL the next year. Things were looking good for him...but then the Tigers kept him in extended spring in 2013 training for reasons that may have disciplinary, and he hit just .245 in 62 games between low-A and high-A. The same thing seemed to happen last year too, where he was once again held back in extended spring training before heading to low-A for 20 games, and high-A for 57 games, where he hit .299/.335/.322 The Good: Castro has a sweet lefty swing that is built for line drives, and he makes easy hard contact. He's an average runner who used to be a plus runner, and he has the raw defensive ability to be a solid second baseman. The Bad: Castro is still extremely raw in all aspects of the game outside of hitting, and when I mentioned that he was disciplined, I don't think it was for being a jerk or anything like that...I think it was an issue of him not dedicating himself to the game. He's a slight guy who has very little pop, though he's strong enough to keep pitchers from overpowering him. He has very good hit tool, but he struggles against lefties, and his baserunning, fielding, double-play turns, and throwing all need a lot of work, 2015: I don't really know. At this point I think Castro may start as the 2nd baseman in Lakeland with Betancourt as the shortstop. If Castro can ever get his head on straight and develop his raw tools his hit tool will allow him to go all the way to the Majors, but it may be more likely that he never really develops and he spends another year in extended spring training. Irresponsible Comparison: Carlos Sanchez Rank | Name | Pos | B/T
| Ht/Wt
| Age | Acquired | Hit
| Pow | Run | Arm | Field | 10
| Greyson Greiner
| C
| R/R
| 6'6, 215
| 22
| '14 Draft (3rd)
| 30/40
| 30/50
| 30/30
| 50/55
| 40/50
|
2014: Detroit took Greiner out of South Carolina in the 3rd round of last-year's draft, after he hit .311/.386/.486 in 60 games for the Gamecocks. The Tigers sent him directly to low-A West Michigan, where he played quite well over 26 games, hitting .322/.394/.444 with a couple of homers, and he threw out 25% of basestealers before he broke a bone in his left hand. The Good: Greiner gets positive marks for his defensive ability, where his arm is pretty strong, he moves well behind the plate, and he shows good leadership. He also has some idea of what to do with the bat, and he has solid raw power. The Bad: The main ding on Greiner is that he's not a great natural hitter. His big frame leads to something of a long swing that figures to be exploited at higher levels, and will probably prevent him from tapping into his power. Like most catchers, he's not terribly fast, and there has never been a 6'6 everyday MLB catcher, so Greiner will have to maintain his athleticism to make it work. 2015: As an advanced college kid who performed well in his brief stint in low-A, Greiner figures to begin next season as the primary catcher in Lakeland. If he continues to hit, it wouldn't shock me to see him earn a promotion to AA Erie shortly after the draft in June, where the more advanced pitching will likely provide him with a greater challenge. If his offense develops, and he maintains his solid defense, he could be a nice everyday player, but it's more likely that he becomes a solid backup or platoon catcher. Irresponsible Comparison: Martin Maldonado Rank | Name | Pos | B/T
| Ht/Wt
| Age | Acquired | Hit
| Pow | Run | Arm | Field | 11
| Connor Harrell
| OF
| R/R
| 6'3, 215
| 24
| '13 Draft (7th)
| 20/30
| 40/50
| 55/55
| 60/60
| 50/55
|
2014: The Tigers seemingly draft a few kids from Vanderbilt every year (they've taken at least one in each of the last 4 drafts), and they liked Harrell so much they drafted him as a Junior in 2012, and again as a senior in 2013. He shows more tools than a typical senior sign, and the organization immediately sent him to low-A where he sort of muddled through the rest of the season. He moved up to Lakeland last year and had a very solid season, hitting .270/.344/.423 with 43 XBH (14 HR), 15 steals in 18 tries,and 37 walks against 135 Ks in 131 games. The Good: Four of Harrell's tools rate as average or better, led by his plus throwing arm that is ideal for RF. His raw power is at least average, and maybe a tick above, and the same goes for his speed. He's also a fine defender at all the OF spots, with good instincts and enough range to handle CF. The Bad: Harrell's hit tool is well below average because he swings and misses too much, and more advanced pitchers are likely to tie him in knots. That of course means he won't be able to tap into his power, and that means he's probably not a regular. 2015: Harrell turns 24 right before the season starts, and he's right in line to be the starting everyday CF for AA Erie. I'm kind of torn with regard to what kind of season he'll have in AA...the pitching is better, but the parks in the Eastern League are far more friendly than those in the Florida State League. I have a feeling Harrell will hit .250 or so and flirt with a 20-20 season, and some fans will start to think he's a better prospect than the likely 4th OF he really is. Irresponsible Comparison: Casper Wells Rank | Name | Pos | B/T
| Ht/Wt
| Age | Acquired | Hit
| Pow | Run | Arm | Field | 12
| Steven Fuentes
| 3B
| B/R
| 5'11, 180
| 20
| '11 Intl. FA
| 20/40
| 30/50
| 50/45
| 55/60
| 35/50
|
2014: Fuentes signed as a 17-year-old out of Venezuela as a toolsy but raw shortstop. He spent that year in the VSL putting up solid numbers, and the Tigers brought him stateside to play in the GCL in 2013. He again made solid progress, at least offensively, but he had already grown off of shortstop and moved to 3rd. He spent 2014 in extended spring training before heading to short-season A-ball in Connecticut, where he performed quite well for a 19-year-old, hitting .295/.356/.475 with 23 XBH (3HR), with 6 steals in 8 chances, and 16 walks against 51 Ks in 55 games. His defense was another issue, where he made 14 errors. He also saw action in 11 Liga Parallela games, but he hit just .192 The Good: Fuentes is an above-average athlete with tools that could be pretty solid across the board. His hit tool is pretty solid from the left side, and he has a knack for impacting the ball to the gaps. He's an average runner right now, and he has enough athleticism to stay solid as he gets bigger. That athleticism should also help him when he eventually finds a permanent defensive home, and his plus arm will play anywhere on the diamond. The Bad: Fuentes remains very raw in all aspects, and his right-handed swing currently lags far behind his lefty stroke, in part because he just hasn't faced many lefties in game action. He can sting the ball, but it's unlikely that he'll be a real power threat, and while he may spend another year on the infield dirt, it seems a forgone conclusion that he'll eventually have to move to an OF corner. 2015: After three years in short-season action, Fuentes should be ready for low-A West Michigan. He'll likely struggle a bit in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League, but at this point it's just important for him to get as many ABs as possible. The best-case scenario finds him moving one level at a time, which would get him to Comerica in 2020, at the age of 25. There's an awful lot that can go wrong between now and then, so he remains something of a lottery ticket. Irresponsible Comparison: Yangervis Solarte Rank | Name | Pos | B/T
| Ht/Wt
| Age | Acquired | Hit
| Pow | Run | Arm | Field | 13
| Joey Pankake
| 3B
| R/R
| 6'2, 190
| 2
| '14 Draft (7th)
| 30/45
| 30/40
| 45/40
| 60/60
| 45/45
|
2014: Pankake spent three years playing on the left side of the infield for South Carolina, manning shortstop as a freshman and sophomore before moving over to 3rd as a Junior, where he hit .303/.394/.421 with 5 HR. The Tigers drafted him in the 7th round and sent him to short-season A-ball Connecticut, where he hit .292/.345/.400 with 20 XBHs (2 HR), with 22 walks and 44 Ks over 64 games. He made 8 errors in 16 games at shortstop, and 9 errors in 34 games at 3rd. The Good: Pankake stands out most for his hitting ability and his arm strength, though he's decent across the board. He has a knack for working the count until he can make loud contact and spray line drives to the gaps, and he has a plus arm that would play well anywhere on the field. The Bad: Pankake's defense is a pretty big question mark at this point. He lacks to range to adequately play shortstop, and while he's a bit better at 3rd, he's still a little erratic in the field, and he may never have the sort of power you look for from a corner bat. He's not really a threat on the basepaths, but he's not slow either. 2015: With Fuentes ready for low-A, and Pankake the more advanced college bat, it seems likely that he'll head to high-A Lakeland. The Tigers will probably continue to develop him at 3rd, but I assume that over the next few years he'll also see time at 2nd and in the OF. Apparently some teams even wanted to move Pankake behind the plate, so there's a chance he may even get some time at catcher. He's got a pretty good chance to eventually see the Majors, but it will almost certainly be in a super utility role rather than an everyday starter. Irresponsible Comparison: Danny Valencia Rank | Name | Pos | B/T
| Ht/Wt
| Age | Acquired | Hit
| Pow | Run | Arm | Field | 14
| Zach Shepherd
| 3B
| R/R
| 6'3, 185
| 19
| '13 Intl. FA
| 30/50
| 35/55
| 45/40
| 45/50
| 40/50
|
2014: Shepherd is from Australia, and along with the since departed Willy Adames and Domingo Leyba, he looks like a third very solid member of the Tigers 2013 International Free Agent class. He performed well in a variety of international youth tournaments, and was a product of the MLB academy in Australia before signing with the Tigers for $325K. He played very well in his first taste of professional baseball last season, appearing in 51 games for the Gulf Coast League Tigers, hitting .301/.373/.497 with 12 doubles, 5 triples, and 4 HRs, and 44 strikeouts against 21 walks. The Good: It's early, but Shepherd looks like he might have a very promising bat. He has shown a nice hit tool, solid present pop with the potential to hit for above-average power in his prime, and an advanced approach given his age and experience, including solid plate discipline. The Bad: I've seen conflicting reports about Shepherd's defense, with some saying he has a strong arm and the tools to be a good third baseman, and others saying he may not have the defensive skills or arm to handle third, meaning he'd have to move to 2nd or the outfield. He has lots and lots of development left, so that's lots and lots of opportunity to fail. 2015: With Pankake and Fuentes ahead of him, Shepherd figures to stay back in extended spring training until after the June draft, at which point he'll likely join short-season Connecticut. He has one of the more promising bats in the system, so it's not out of the question that the Tigers try to push him to West Michigan and see if Fuentes can stick at shortstop, or perhaps they'll decide to move Shepherd to another position already. With an ideal developmental path he could see time in the Majors in late 2018 or 2019. Irresponsible Comparison: David Freese Rank | Name | Pos | B/T
| Ht/Wt
| Age | Acquired | Hit
| Pow | Run | Arm | Field | 15
| Shane Zeile
| C
| R/R
| 6'1, 195
| 21
| '14 Draft (5th)
| 30/50
| 30/40
| 30/30
| 50/55
| 50/50
|
2014: Though their skills are quite different, it's easy to draw parallels Zeile and Alex Avila. Both come from baseball families (Shane's uncle Todd was a solid MLB player for 16 years), both were drafted in the 5th round, and both moved to catcher from the infield relatively late in their amateur careers. In Shane's case it was between his freshman and sophomore years, and in his first year as a starting catcher he helped lead UCLA to the College World Series title, although his offense took a huge hit as he learned the defensive nuances of the position. He bounced back in a big way as a junior, leading the Bruins with 70 hits, and batting .324/.401/.421 while throwing out 18 of 43 basestealers. He broke his thumb shortly after being drafted so he only got in 21 GCL games as a pro, hitting just .222/.275/.365 with 14 Ks and 4 walks. The Good: Despite his weak hitting in a small sample, the Tigers think very highly of Zeile's hit tool and project him to be an MLB-average hitter with decent gap power. But even if he doesn't progress as a hitter, the team thinks he has the athleticism and strong arm to be a plus defensive catcher. The Bad: Zeile is still raw defensively and has a fairly long way to go in his development, which always means there are plenty of potential pitfalls ahead. He doesn't project to have more than below-average power, and like most catchers, he's not particularly fleet of foot. 2015: There is a bit of a logjam at catcher in the lower levels for the Tigers, a fact I'll elaborate on in a bit, so I'm not entirely sure where Zeile will head. I know the Tigers are pretty high on him, so my guess is that he gets the majority of the reps at low-A West Michigan. He's young enough that being held back in extended spring training and sent to Connecticut would be fine, but I suspect the Tigers want to give him a challenge. Catcher is one of the most difficult and complicated positions in all of sports, and as such their development typically moves at a glacial pace. If he moves and develops at an average rate, Zeile could see time in the Majors in 2018 or 2019 as a 25-year-old. Irresponsible Comparison: Ryan Hanigan Rank | Name | Pos | B/T
| Ht/Wt
| Age | Acquired | Hit
| Pow | Run | Arm | Field | 16
| Franklin Navarro
| C
| B/R
| 5'10, 180
| 20
| '12 Intl. FA
| 30/45
| 30/50
| 30/30
| 50/60
| 40/50
|
2014: Navarro is a product of the Tigers Venezuelan academy, signing with the team as 17-year-old in 2012. He spent a single year in the Venezuelan Summer League, hitting .315/.360/.452 with 24 XBHs and 4 HRs in 62 games, and he threw out 33% of basestealers. That was good enough to get him sent stateside, but he's played sparingly in the last two season, hitting about .250 with a few homers in the GCL in 2013, and posting similar numbers in short-season A-ball last year. He has continued to nab basestealers at about an 40% clip however, and he had a nice highlight last August when he hit a walkoff grand slam to give Connecticut a 5-4 win over the Lowell Spinners. He struggled mightily over the winter in the Venezuelan Liga Parallela, going 7/43 (.163) with 14 strikeouts and just one walk, but I wouldn't put too much stock into those numbers. The Good: Navarro may have the best raw tools of any catching prospect in the system. His swing works pretty well from both sides and he shows a knack for making hard contact, and he has the raw power to hit 15+ homers a year if his hit tool comes together. He's not super athletic, but he has all the tools to be at least an average defense catcher, and his raw arm strength is a plus. The Bad: He's young and raw, and there are tons of things Navarro needs to do to refine his game and reach his potential. He's an aggressive swinger who doesn't take a ton of walks, and more advanced pitching will exploit that, and on defense he has to continue to work on everything, including footwork, blocking pitches (19 passed balls in 113 career games), his transfer, and managing his pitchers. 2015: As I mentioned with Zeile, it's kind of hard to project where all the catchers are going to land. Navarro could certainly use another stint in the New York Penn League, and it would make sense to keep him one level behind Zeile, but eventually they're going to have to turn him loose in a full-season league. As I said, he has very impressive tools, enough to make him an above-average regular if he maximizes his potential, but he's so far away, with so much work to be done that it's impossible to predict if he'll ever be more than an organizational player. Irresponsible Comparison: Adrian Nieto Rank | Name | Pos | B/T
| Ht/Wt
| Age | Acquired | Hit
| Pow | Run | Arm | Field | 17
| Arvicent Perez
| C
| R/R
| 5'10, 180
| 21
| '11 Intl. FA
| 30/45
| 30/40
| 30/30
| 50/60
| 40/60
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2014: Another product of the Venezuelan academy, Perez was signed a year before Navarro but didn't see his first action until 2012, when the two split time behind the dish. Perez stayed in the VSL in 2013 before making his U.S. debut last year, spending 27 games in the Gulf Coast League before an impressive 14-game stint in Low-A West Michigan. He's a career .304 hitter in the minors, and last season he hit .323/.333/.472 with 12 XBHs including 3 homers in 41 games. He only struck out 12 times, but he also only walked twice, and on defense he allowed three passed balls while throwing out 19 or 44 basestealers, good for a 42% CS rate. He also went bonkers in the Venezuelan Liga Parallela this past winter, going 22/49 (.449) with 2 homers and 2 walks against just one strikeout, but again, I don't want to put too much stock in those numbers. The Good: Perez stands out most for his strong arm and his impressive defense, which is advanced for his age and experience. Both tools have the chance to be plus in the future, and he also has a very impressive ability to put his bat on the ball and make solid contact. The Bad: Perez doesn't project to have a ton of power, and right now he's so aggressive that he might never tap into the power he does have because he'll start getting himself out on pitcher's pitches. He almost certainly needs to develop some sort of patience at the plate, if not to draw more walks, at least to get himself in a position to target an area of the plate to drive pitches instead of just reacting to mistakes. He's a young catcher, so there are still some things to clean up defensively, and he's not fast. 2015: Catching logjam. Perez is a little bit older than Navarro, he's had more offensive success at a higher level (albeit in a very small sample size) and I wouldn't argue with anyone who says he's a better prospect than Navarro. I have no idea where Perez will play. Ideally it would be in short-season Connecticut, but then that's also an ideal spot for Navarro. Maybe he's advanced enough to handle West Michigan, but that's an ideal spot for Zeile. Then there's Will Allen, who the Tigers took in the 13th round last year out of Mississippi, who has solid ability and will need to see some playing time somewhere. It's possible the Tigers might just push every one of their catchers this year, sending Greiner to AA, Zeile to high-A, Perez to low-A, and Navarro to short-season. In any event, Perez has the chance to be a good one, but he's years away with lots to figure out before he's really in the conversation. Irresponsible Comparison: J.R. Murphy Rank | Name | Pos | B/T
| Ht/Wt
| Age | Acquired | Hit
| Pow | Run | Arm | Field | 18
| Jason Krizan
| OF
| L/R
| 6', 185
| 25
| '11 Draft (8th)
| 35/40
| 35/40
| 50/45
| 55/60
| 50/55
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2014: Krizan is next in the long line of Cletes and Dirkses who get by with grit and fringy skills rather than excellent tools. The Tigers drafted him as a senior out of Dallas Baptist, where he was an All-American, had a 39-game hitting streak, and set an NCAA record with 39 doubles in one season. He has moved steadily though the system since being drafted, heading directly to low-A in 2011, repeating the Midwest League in 2012, heading to Lakeland in 2013, and spending all of last year in Erie, where he hit .293/.364/.414 in 124 games, with 40 XBHs (7 HR) 14 steals in 21 tries, and he walked 53 times against 47 strikeouts. The Good: Krizan is a patient hitter with a line drive approach and enough pop to keep pitchers honest, and he has fringe-average speed that isn't really a weapon, but lets him take the extra base. His defensive potential is his best tool, where he shows the ability to capably handle all three positions and has a strong, accurate arm. The Bad: Krizan lacks elite bat speed so he's unlikely to hit for a high average, and unlikely to fully realize his below-average power. He's capable of playing center field, but his fringy speed makes him much more suited for corner duty, for which is bat is just too light. 2015: Krizan is ready for AAA, but, like Jamie Johnson before him, he doesn't figure to be a high-priority prospect for the Tigers. In fact, it's pretty questionable to even call him a prospect, but the pickins are kind of slim here, and he has a chance to see time as a 4th or 5th outfielder. He was invited to spring training, which not everyone can say, and we'll know more about the Tigers opinion of Krizan when he's assigned to minor-league camp. If he heads back to AA, he's not a priority for the team. Irresponsible Comparison: Andy Dirks Rank | Name | Pos | B/T
| Ht/Wt
| Age | Acquired | Hit
| Pow | Run | Arm | Field | 19
| Wynton Bernard
| OF
| R/R
| 6'2, 195
| 24
| Minor League FA
| 30/40
| 30/30
| 70/65
| 50/50
| 50/55
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2014: If you've followed this year's spring training at all, you may have already heard Bernard's story, but I'll tell it again because it's pretty awesome. He was drafted in 2012 by the Padres in the 35th round as a senior out of Niagara, where he had a solid but unspectacular college career. The Padres treated him like a 35th-round pick, getting him all of 250 at-bats over the course of the next two seasons, and shuffling him to four different levels in 2013, before releasing him. Tigers West Coast crosschecker Tim McWilliam suggested that Bernard come to the Tigers open tryout last year, so Bernard paid for his own flight to Lakeland. There were 120 players in camp, but Bernard was the only one who impressed the Tigers enough to earn a contract. They sent him to low-A West Michigan where he played CF every day and proceeded to hit .323/.394/.442 with 42 XBHs (6HR), 45 steals in 64 tries, and 86 strikeouts against 56 walks en route to winning Midwestern League MVP. The Tigers surprised many by adding Bernard to their 40-man roster after the season, but if they hadn't he would have been free to move to any other organization. The Good: Bernard stands out most for his speed which gets him from the right side of the plate to first base in 4.1 seconds and lets him glide around the outfield. He's a high-wasted, solid athlete who actually has average raw power and his arm is strong enough to play all three outfield positions. The Bad: There is a pretty significant disconnect between Bernard's numbers and the way scouts and evaluators feel about him, and I think it mostly has to do with skepticism about his hit tool. He was old for his league last year, and there are questions about whether he'll be able to handle premium velocity and elite breaking balls at higher levels. 2015: Bernard's age, and the fact that he was added to the 40-man makes me curious about where the Tigers will send him this year. I have Connor Harrell pegged for CF in AA Erie, but if the Tigers really do like Bernard then it would probably behoove them to send him to Erie as well. Either guy could slide into a corner spot, I suppose. I have no idea what to make of Bernard's future...there are evaluators who think he's living off limited tools and taking advantage of inferior competition, but from my limited viewing his tools seem pretty legit. I'm not a scout though, so it will be really interesting to see how he performs this year, wherever he ends up playing. Irresponsible Comparison: Rajai Davis Rank | Name | Pos | B/T
| Ht/Wt
| Age | Acquired | Hit
| Pow | Run | Arm | Field | 20
| Julio Martinez
| OF
| R/R
| 6'2, 190
| 17
| '14 Intl. FA
| 20/50
| 30/55
| 30/30
| 40/50
| 30/50
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2014: It was a good year for Julio, as all his hard work as an amateur player in the Dominican Republic earned him a $600,000 payday from the Tigers (although who knows how much of that went to his trainer). He played in a few amateur leagues before signing, but I can't find any stats. The Good: Scouts are most excited about Martinez's bat, which already shows signs of future plus power, as well as the ability to spray the ball all over the park and make adjustments. The Bad: He's not considered much of an athlete on the defensive side of the ball, where his arm is fringy and he's slow of foot. He's relegated to LF or 1B, so his bat will need to reach its full potential for him to see the Majors. 2015: Martinez is a complete wild card. He's got a big frame already, but he could continue to grow and become a monster power hitter, or he could completely flame out like former bonus baby Adelyn Santa. If we assume a traditional path for him, however, he'll spend this year in the Dominican Summer League, play in the Gulf Coast League in 2016, hit short-season A ball or low-A in 2017, high-A in 2018, AA in 2019, and possibly see the Majors in 2020. The world may come to an end by then, so there's not much point in speculating what he'll be at that point, but he's a lottery ticket who could pay off one day. Irresponsible Comparison: Tyler Moore Others of Note
Ramon Cabrera - C - Can hit, but has very little power and a weak arm. Austin Green - C - Organizational soldier type with solid pop. Will Allen - C - Led Ole Miss in hitting last year before getting drafted in the 13th round. Holaday type? Elys Escobar - C - Next in line of promising young (18) catchers from Venezuela Jordan Lennerton - 1B - Decent bat, strong glove. Emergency option in case of disaster. Aaron Westlake - 1B - Third rounder in 2011. Low-contact, solid power bat. Super emergency option. Dominic Ficociello - 1B - Tall and athletic, but power hasn't arrived yet. Luis Torrealba - 1B - Tons of raw pop, has played 3B, LF, and was a catcher before signing. Hector Martinez - 2B/SS - Priority signing in the 2013 Intl. FA class. Fast, solid raw pop, and defensive tools. Manny Joseph - SS - Don't think he's a prospect, but he tore up the DSL last year. Wade Gaynor - 3B - Org soldier. Break glass in case of emergency. Randel Alcantara - 3B - Know nothing, but solid power as a 17-year-old in the DSL. Michael Gerber - OF - Tigers took him in the 15th round last year, and he showed promising power. Ross Kivet - OF - Sixth rounder from last year. He's another Dirks type. Tyler Gibson - OF - Has the tools to be high on this list, but hasn't played more than 52 games in any of his 4 years with the organization. Austin Schotts - OF - 3rd rounder from 2012 has impressive defensive potential, but bat hasn't developed. Ben Verlander - OF - Another guy whose bat hasn't developed. Rashad Brown - OF - Athletic and fast, but hasn't translated his raw ability to useful baseball tools yet. Orvin Tovar - OF - Good athlete who made his U.S. debut last year. Jose Azocar - OF - Intriguing kid with plus speed and CF defense who hit .340 last year in the VSL. And Finally, Who the Hell is ThatJefry Marte - 3B/1B - Once a top-10 Mets prospect, he's still just 23. Has raw power, on-base skills, but a questionable hit tool. Bobby Borchering - 1B - D-Backs first-rounder in 2009, he showed promise after 2011, but never solved AA. Xavier Avery - OF - Very speedy former Orioles top-15 prospect saw MLB time in 2012. Miguel Gonzalez - C - Good defensive catcher was once a top-10 White Sox prospect. Josh Wilson - UTIL - Career replacement level type has seen 400+ games in the Majors. Once upon a time was a top-10 Marlins prospect. Jiwan James - OF - Like Wynton Bernard, James was signed after participating in an open tryout. Unlike Bernard, he was once a top-10 Phillies prospect who showcased elite athleticism, speed, and defense. He scuffled at AA in 2012, and over the last two years he struggled with a knee injury and complications from Crohn's Disease. The Tigers were satisfied with his health report, though, and he looks like he might head to Lakeland or Erie this year.
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wacko
All-Andre Drummond
Post Hall of Fame Inductee
Posts: 172
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Post by wacko on Mar 19, 2015 22:53:50 GMT -5
Thanks CB... but holy hell, that was depressing.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Apr 6, 2015 17:05:48 GMT -5
So hi guys. I know all three of you are going to be heartbroken, but I can't post my list of the top 20 pitching prospects in the system. Well, I can post the list, but I can't go into great detail like before, because I'm now doing some work for TigsTown and as such I would have complete access to their scouting reports (which are much, much better than mine, by the way - worth the money if you care enough) and I want to avoid the appearance of any impropriety. So here is the slightly shorter version of the Tigers top 20 pitching prospects, along with a handful of other interesting arms. I had the intro and my capsule for Buck Farmer all done, but after that it's just a couple of quick notes about each guy. -------- And now we move on to the pitchers. In my opinion the pitching is a little bit deeper in this system than the position players, but that’s not exactly saying much. We’re mostly talking about guys whose ceilings are as a 4th starter or as a 7th-inning reliever…there just happen to be a lot of them. The format is similar to that of the position prospects, with me using the 20-80 scouting scale to assign current and future idealized grades on each of the prospect’s pitches, his control, and his command. Control is the simple ability to throw strikes and avoid walks, while command is a measure of how well the pitcher locates his pitches within the four quadrants of the strike zone. You’ll recall that a grade of 50 means MLB average, which for right-handed starters means a fastball that sits at 91-92, and for relievers it’s a fastball around 93. Lefties tend to throw about one mph slower on average. I noted that a completely average position player, with 50 grades across the board, can be a very valuable, all-star level player. That’s usually not the case for pitchers. A starter with three 50-grade pitches and average command and control is likely to be a 4th or 5th starter whose ERA is north of 4. Last year’s average AL starter posted a 3.85 FIP with a 19.5% K rate, and a 7.8% walk rate. The AL starter who posted numbers closest to average was Chris Capuano, who pitched in 40 games last year, 28 relief appearances for Boston, and 12 starts for the Yankees. He finished 3-4, 4.35 with 101 Hits, 34 walks, and 84 strikeouts in 97.1 IP. Others posted similar numbers in twice the innings, but Capuano was the most average. Now, to the rankings: Rank
| Name
| Pos
| Ht/Wt
| Age
| Acquired
| FBall
| Slider
| Change
| Cntrl
| Comm
| 1
| Buck Farmer
| RHP
| 6'4, 225
| 24
| '13 Draft (5th)
| 55/60
| 45/50
| 45/55
| 50/60
| 40/50
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2014: The Brewers drafted Farmer in the 15th round after 2012, but he turned them down and returned to Georgia Tech for his senior year. The Tigers then took him in the 5th round the next year and sent him to short-season A-ball, where he performed well in 12 appearances covering 32 innings (The Tigers were managing his innings). Farmer wasn't a high-priority prospect coming into 2014, but it was still somewhat surprising that the Tigers sent him to low-A West Michigan, because he was a 23-year-old advanced college pitcher. Somewhat predictably, he dominated the competition, going 10-5, 2.60 with 116 K, 24 BB, and 91 Hits allowed over 103.2 IP. After the draft the Tigers jumped him a level to AA, where he was very solid in two starts, and then suddenly he was called up to the Tigers, making him just the 4th player from the 2013 draft to make the Majors. He was okay in his first start, got rocked in his 2nd, was sent to Toledo where he had one brutal start and one excellent start, and finished up his whirlwind year with two relief appearances for the Tigers. The Good: Farmer worked mostly with an average fastball in college, but for whatever reason it really picked up as a pro, where he sits in the 92-94 range and can spike it up to 95-96. His slider shows solid break and he can use it to get ahead of hitters or get them to swing a miss. He can also get swings and misses with his promising changeup, which shows good late tumble and fade. He has an ideal pitcher's frame, and he typically pounds the strike zone. The Bad: Farmer's delivery features a little bit of effort to it and he can be prone to opening up a bit and letting his fastball miss to the arm side. He stuff is good, but it isn't light's out, so he needs to refine his command and bring it up another grade or so. Some scouts think he projects best as a reliever. 2015: With the trade for Alfredo Simon, the Tigers completed their Major League rotation. There is still a small chance that Farmer makes the big club as a reliever, but it would make a lot more sense for the organization to send him Toledo as a starter so he'll be ready to join the MLB rotation next year when Simon and Price are likely gone. Most evaluators peg Farmer as a #4 starter at best, which would put him as a guy who gives you 180+ innings with an ERA around 4. As a reliever, his lack of a second true plus pitch means that he'd be a setup man rather than a closer. I'm higher on him than most, and I think he might have a few seasons where he looks more like a #3 starter and contributes 200+ innings. He'd also make a solid trade chip, if the Tigers do what they always do and trade prospects for bullpen help. Irresponsible Comparison: Matt Garza 2 - Kevin Ziomek - LHP - 6'3, 200 - (23) - Lefty sits 88-92, can get a bit more. Curve, slider, and change are all close to average, and has a funky delivery. Chance to be a back end starter. 3 - Spencer Turnbull - RHP - 6'3, 215 - (22) - Second rounder from 2014. Mid-90s heat and a potential above-average slider. Change and command need work. Could be a #3 starter, but more likely a reliever. 4 - Kyle Lobstein - LHP - 6'3, 200 - (25) - Doesn't have a single plus pitch, but has very good command and mixes his offerings well. Solid 5th starter type. 5 - Austin Kubitza - RHP - 6'5, 225 - (23) - Classic sinker/slider guy with monster groundball rates. Starter now, but could be an effective reliever. 6 - Drew VerHagen - RHP - 6'6, 230 - (24) - Fastball hits the mid-90s with good groundball tendencies. Change and curve occasionally flash average. Back-end type or reliever. 7 - Endrys Briceno - RHP - 6'5, 170 - (23) - Coming off TJ surgery, but when healthy he has a very live arm, with a fastball that reached 95 consistently. Secondary stuff needs a lot of work. Could be a back-end starter, or a solid reliever. 8 - Anthony Castro - RHP - 6', 175 - (19) - Young kid can already hit 93-94, and shows promise with secondary offerings. Long way away, but potential to be a #4 starter. 9 - Joe Jimenez - RHP - 6'3, 220 - (20) - Puerto Rican free agent signee can hit the high 90s and his slider flashes plus. Closer potential. 10 - Angel Nesbitt - RHP - 6'1, 240 - (24) - Powerfully built kid throws his fastball up to 97. His slider is inconsistent, but can be very solid. Also working on a 2-seamer and a change. Solid 7th-inning profile. 11 - Jose Valdez - RHP - 6'1, 200 - (25) - Smaller version of Nesbitt, though Valdez actually throws harder, and his slider is better when it's on. Real trouble throwing strikes though. 12 - Edgar De La Rosa - RHP - 6'8, 235 - (24) - Gigantic human, with a fastball that reaches the upper 90s. Changeup is okay, breaking ball not so much. Has been a starter, but destined for bullpen, where he could potentially move quickly. 13 - Artie Lewicki - RHP - 6'3, 195 - (22) - Reminds me a bit of Buck Farmer. College senior taken in the 8th round in 2014, has a good fastball that can hit 95 and a promising breaking ball. 14 - Adam Ravenelle - RHP - 6'3, 185 - (22) - Requisite Vanderbilt pick from the 2014 draft (4th round), he was used as a reliever in college, but has the stuff to start, including a mid-90s fastball. Could shoot up this list. 15 - Kyle Ryan - LHP - 6'5, 210 - (23) - Lanky kid with fringy stuff, but enough deception and angle to be a solid emergency starter. Probably best suited as a lefty specialist. 16 - Zac Reininger - RHP - 6'3, 170 - (22) - Reliever with an array of secondary stuff and a fastball that can reach 93. Possible long reliever. 17 - Josh Laxer - RHP - 6', 195 - (21) - Ninth rounder from 2014, Laxer has a mid-90s fastball and a promising slider. Might have setup potential, but I need to see him at higher levels. 18 - Melvin Mercedes - RHP - 6'3, 250 (24) - Big bodied kid has a fastball that sits 93-97 with good movement. Has a slider and a change, but neither are very effective. Possible 6th- or 7th-inning guy. 19 - Joe Mantiply - LHP - 6'4, 215 - (24) - Average fastball and fringy secondary stuff, but a funky delivery that should eventually get him to the Majors as a lefty specialist. 20 - Jeff Thompson - RHP - 6'6, 245 - (23) - Big, athletic kid missed most of 2014 with arm trouble. Had a nice low-90s fastball and a solid slider before. Others of Note - Chad Green - RHP - Starter with a low-90s fastball, but his secondary stuff isn't very good. Montreal Robertson - RHP - Strong arm but loses velocity and has inconsistent secondary stuff. Gabe Hemmer - RHP - Reliever who surprised with plus velocity last year. Calvin Drummond - RHP - Hard throwing reliever. Guido Knudson - RHP - Fairly hard throwing reliever. Fun name. Confessor Lara - RHP - Fairly hard throwing reliever! Also a fun name... Carlos Lara - Confessor's brother! Same story. Who the Hell is That?Alberto Cabrera - RHP - Reliever was once a top-15 prospect for the Cubs. Fastball in the low-to-mid 90s, inconsistent slider. Tim Melville - RHP - Once a top-10 Royals starting pitching prospect. Good fastball and curve, but control issues. Move to the bullpen may help. Rafael Dolis - RHP - Reliever was once a top-10 Cubs prospect. Sinker/slider type with good velocity, not many Ks.
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Post by philly on Apr 7, 2015 7:33:30 GMT -5
Good to see you're finally getting paid for your hard work CB. Is this thinnest the Tigers have ever been with pitching prospects?
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Post by ChrisBrown on Apr 7, 2015 9:23:42 GMT -5
Good to see you're finally getting paid for your hard work CB. Is this thinnest the Tigers have ever been with pitching prospects? Thanks! I'm parsing here, so I would say weakest rather than thinnest, but yeah, I can basically agree with your assessment. They have a decent number of back-end arms who can and will contribute over the next few years, but absolutely no one looks like a top-of-the-rotation starter. They probably won't add anyone like that to the system any time soon, either, unless they get really lucky with one of their draft picks this year.
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Post by ChrisBrown on Apr 13, 2015 9:08:56 GMT -5
So my first minor league update is up over at TigsTown - LINKThanks for reading, if you do.
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